Fortnightly Review & Analysis - USA, Russia & EU (Vol 2 Issue IX)

01 – 15 May, 2017

USA

US President Donald Trump continued to make news and create controversies during the fortnight. On May 9, he fired the FBI Director James Comey ostensibly for his controversial handling of the inquiry into Hilary Clinton’s e mail scandal. Even if true, the claim rings hollow as James Comey actually seemed to be burrowing deep into alleged connections between Mr Trump and Russia's Kremlin. Many therefore regard Comey as the man who may have posed the greatest threat to the Trump presidency.

Not since Watergate has a president dismissed the person leading an investigation into the administration’s conduct. The decision sparked immediate comparisons with the "Saturday Night Massacre" of 1973, when the then president Richard Nixon dismissed Archibald Cox, the independent special prosecutor who was appointed to investigate Watergate. Comey’s sacking continues to reverberate in Washington as Donald Trump has warned the former FBI director against leaking any information to the media, saying he had "better hope that there are no 'tapes'" of their conversations. In the termination letter to Mr Comey, Mr Trump said the firing was necessary to restore "public trust and confidence in the FBI". He also said, "While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the bureau." James Comey on the other hand believes he was fired for refusing to bow to the President’s demands to pledge loyalty to him rather than the country.

Donald Trump’s abrupt move to fire the Director of the FBI during an ongoing investigation into whether his presidential campaign had ties to Russia was swiftly condemned by Democrats and some in his own party. India-born former top federal prosecutor Preet Bharara raised concerns about US President Donald Trump’s decision to fire Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) director James Comey, saying “everyone who cares about independence and rule of law” should be troubled by the move. Several lawmakers also questioned the timing of Comey’s removal as the FBI is investigating Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 US Election. “I am troubled by the timing and reasoning of Director Comey’s termination,” said Republican Senator Richard Burr. “This is Nixonian. Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein must immediately appoint a special prosecutor to continue the Trump/Russia investigation,” tweeted Senator Bob Casey. California Senator Kamala Harris stated, “His (Comey’s) firing puts that investigation into further question.” American Civil Liberties Union executive director Anthony D Romero said the independence of the FBI director is meant to ensure that the president does not operate above the law. “For President Trump to fire the man responsible for investigating his own campaign’s ties to the Russians imperils that fundamental principle,” he said.

In another development, reports have surfaced wherein Barack Obama had warned Donald Trump in November 2016 against hiring former NSA Michaeel Flynn, who was forced to resign within three weeks of assuming office over his contacts with Russia after less than three weeks in office. The outgoing president issued the warning when Trump and he met in the White House two days after Trump’s election victory, White House spokesman Sean Spicer has confirmed. Spicer acknowledged that Obama had expressed misgivings about Flynn, a former general, but said they were general criticisms. Reports attributed to Obama officials differed on whether the concerns voiced by Obama were linked to his DIA performance or because of his Russia links. Despite Obama’s warnings, Trump picked Flynn as his national security adviser, but the retired general was forced to resign after it emerged he had had extensive contacts with the Russian ambassador to Washington, Sergey Kislyak, and had not given a full account of them to other White House officials, most importantly the Vice president Mike Pence. Federal records also showed that his company, the Flynn Intel Group, had been paid more than a half-million dollars to lobby on behalf of projects that benefited the Turkish government in 2016. Flynn had also received income from RT in 2015, a state-run television channel formerly known as Russia Today, which he did not initially declare.

In another controversial development, the family of Trump’s son-in-law and White House adviser Jared Kushner had to apologize for mentioning his name while urging wealthy Chinese investors at an event in Shanghai to sink millions into a New Jersey real estate project. Nicole Kushner Meyer was in Shanghai in early May, seeking more than $150m in investment in a luxury apartment complex known as “One Journal Square”, on which ground is scheduled to break early next year. She urged wealthy Chinese to buy stakes through the EB-5 visa program, which offers US residency in exchange for at least $500,000 of investment in a US business that must also create at least 10 American jobs. The pitch raised concern over potential conflicts of interest and set off a media firestorm in the US, leading Kushner Companies to issue a formal apology on Monday. “In the course of discussing this project and the firm’s history with potential investors, Ms Meyer wanted to make clear that her brother had stepped away from the company in January and has nothing to do with this project,” the firm said. “Kushner Companies apologizes if that mention of her brother was in any way interpreted as an attempt to lure investors. That was not Ms Meyer’s intention.”

Europe

Emmanuel Macron was elected France’s youngest head of state since Napoleon on May 7 after beating his far-Right rival Marine Le Pen in an emphatic result that is likely to have far-reaching consequences for Brexit and Europe. Projections gave 39-year-old Mr Macron almost two thirds of the vote, showing a clear path to the Élysée Palace for the pro-EU centrist who was a political unknown until three years ago and has never held elected office.

Addressing the nation, a sober Mr Macron immediately reached across the divide to Le Pen voters, saying he heard the "anger, anxiety and doubts" that many had expressed. But he did not shy away from his internationalist, pro-EU agenda, saying: "I will defend Europe; it is our civilisation which is at stake...I will work to rebuild ties between Europe and its citizens."

Mr Macron is expected to drive a hard bargain over Brexit, striking a strident note during his campaign by warning that negotiations would be “no walk in the park” and that Britain would be left in “servitude” as a result of leaving the EU. In contrast to Le Pen's aggressive policy proposals such as suspending immigration, curtailing free trade, and severing the relationship between France and the EU, Macron prefers reform over revolution. He backs globalization and expanding the role of the EU, and advocates for reform to France's policies in dealing with the multiple dilemmas facing the country and the EU.

Macron integrates the values of social democracy and economic liberty, supports structural reform and individual projects that attract young, urban, EU-supporting voters. But he has a tough challenge ahead and if he fails to relieve the economic stagnation, lower the unemployment rate among the youth population, address the paradox of a diverse culture, and eliminate the ever-growing terrorist threat, he would fail. And if that happens, Le Pen's revolutionary movement will garner more supporters and reemerge once again as a serious contender to Macron.

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