VIF News Digest: International Developments (US, Europe and Russia), 1-15 May 2021
Dr Himani Pant

I. United States

Taliban launches major Afghan offensive after deadline for U.S. pullout, 4 May 2021.

Afghan security forces fought back a major Taliban offensive in southern Helmand province in the last 24 hours as militants launched assaults around the country after a missed U.S. deadline to withdraw troops. Although the United States did not meet the May 1 withdrawal deadline agreed in talks with the Taliban last year, its pull-out has begun, with President Joe Biden announcing all troops will be out by Sept. 11. Critics of the decision to withdraw say the Islamist militants will try to sweep back into power.
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Antony Blinken visits Ukraine tells Russia to cease 'reckless and aggressive actions' towards Ukraine, 6 May 2021.

The US secretary of state has told Russia to cease all "reckless and aggressive actions" towards Ukraine. Antony Blinken made the comments during a trip to Kyiv where he met top Ukrainian officials. Speaking alongside President Volodymyr Zelensky, he said the US was looking to strengthen security co-operation and assistance between the two countries. The visit comes just weeks after Russia deployed thousands of soldiers close to the Ukrainian border.
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Talks ‘intensify’ on bringing U.S. back to Iran nuclear deal, 7 May 2021.

The talks began in Austria in early April. World powers held a fourth round of high-level talks on 7 May aimed at bringing the U.S. back into the nuclear deal with Iran, with both sides signalling a willingness to work out the major stumbling blocks. Russian delegate Mikhail Ulyanov tweeted following Friday’s meeting that “the participants agreed on the need to intensify the process.” “The delegations seem to be ready to stay in Vienna as long as necessary to achieve the goal,” he wrote.
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Covid-19: Six US planes carrying medical supplies reached India in past few days, 7 May 2021.

The US has so far sent six planes carrying emergency supplies to India, which is battling one of its worst public health crises. The emergency supplies include 20,000 courses of Remdesivir (125,000 vials), nearly 1,500 oxygen cylinders, which can be repeatedly refilled at local supply centres, and one million rapid diagnostic tests to quickly identify Covid-19 cases.
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US and Iran negotiate to restore nuclear deal, but on different terms, 10 May 2021.

The Biden administration, for its part, says that restoring the old deal is just a stepping stone. It must be followed immediately by an agreement on limiting missiles and support of terrorism — and making it impossible for Iran to produce enough fuel. The Iranians are demanding that they be allowed to keep the advanced nuclear-fuel production equipment they installed after Mr. Trump abandoned the pact, and integration with the world financial system beyond what they achieved under the 2015 agreement.
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Blinken to meet Russian Foreign Minister next week, 12 May 2021.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Arctic Council ministerial in Iceland next week -- the first face-to-face meeting between a Biden cabinet official and their Russian counterpart. Their meeting in Reykjavik comes ahead of a potential summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. No date has yet been made public for the possible meeting between the two leaders, although Biden has said it is his "hope and expectation" that he will meet with his Russian counterpart during his trip to Europe next month.
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Business and Economy
U.S. trade deficit surges to record; shortfall with China keeps rising, 4 May 2021.

The U.S. trade deficit hit a fresh record high in March as consumers flush with government cash spurred a continuing demand for foreign-made goods. With a new round of $1,400 stimulus checks pouring in and the domestic economy continuing to show substantial improvement, the imbalance in goods and services with the rest of the world swelled to $74.4 billion, the Commerce Department reported. The trade imbalance with China increased more than 22% to $36.9 billion.
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Supply chain bottlenecks amid roaring demand slow U.S. manufacturing, 3 May 2021.

U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in April, restrained by shortages of inputs as rising vaccinations against COVID-19 and massive fiscal stimulus unleashed pent-up demand. The survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has showed record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products across industries.
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Amazon Wins Case Against EU Regulators Over Luxembourg Taxes, 12 May 2021.

Amazon has won a major court fight against a European Commission order that it pay 250 million euros ($303 million) in back taxes to Luxembourg deemed "illegal state aid." The General Court of the European Union is based in Luxembourg, where Amazon has its European headquarters. It rejected the European Commission's contention that the online retailing giant enjoyed a selective advantage in the tax deal. The case stems from a 2014 European Commission investigation into Amazon's tax arrangement in Luxembourg, which ultimately concluding that the country had granted undue tax benefits of around 250 million euros. EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager said the deal was illegal under EU rules because Amazon was allowed to pay substantially less tax than other businesses. She ordered Luxembourg to recover the money.
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Commerce Department presses Taiwan to supply more chips to U.S. automakers, 4 May 2021.

The U.S. Commerce Department is pressing Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and other Taiwanese firms to prioritize the needs of U.S. automakers to ease chip shortages in the near term, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo noted. Raimondo told a Council of the Americas event that longer-term, increased investment was needed to produce more semiconductors in the United States and that other critical supply chains needed re-shoring, including to allied countries.
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Cyberattack Forces a Shutdown of a Top U.S. Pipeline, 8 May 2021.

One of the nation’s largest pipelines-Colonial Pipeline, which carries refined gasoline and jet fuel from Texas up the East Coast to New York, was forced to shut down after being hit by ransomware in a vivid demonstration of the vulnerability of energy infrastructure to cyberattacks.

Health and Environment
U.S. wants COVID vaccine patent waiver to benefit world, not boost China biotech, 9 May 2021.

The Biden administration is examining ways to ensure that a waiver of COVID-19 vaccine patents to aid poor countries will not hand sensitive U.S. biopharmaceutical technology to China and Russia. President Joe Biden has backed the U.S. entering negotiations at the World Trade Organization for the waiver of intellectual property rights as a means to boost vaccine supplies by allowing poorer countries to make their own. So far, vaccines have gone overwhelmingly to richer nations, which scooped up contracts for them earlier this year.
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‘A huge moment’: U.S. gives go-ahead for its first major offshore wind farm, 12 May 2021.

The U.S. offshore wind sector took a major step forward Tuesday after authorities gave the green light for the construction and operation of the 800 megawatt (MW) Vineyard Wind 1 project.In a statement, the U.S. Department of the Interior described the development, which will be located in waters off the coast of Massachusetts, as “the first large-scale, offshore wind project in the United States.”
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Perspective
Biden’s First 100 Days and India-U.S. Relations, 11 May 2021.

From the final days of Bill Clinton’s presidency to the single term of Donald Trump and the first 100 days of Joe Biden’s administration, the India-U.S. relationship has seen a broad positive arc, withstanding changes of administration in Washington.
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II.EUROPE

Politics and Society
EU announces new powers to restrict takeover bids by foreign entities, 5 May 2021.

The European Union wants to restrict foreign companies that receive government subsidies from engaging in its market, potentially causing repercussions for Chinese-backed firms in particular. The European Commission has proposed three new tools to enable it to have the power to investigate financial contributions given by public authorities from non-EU nations. This would happen when the recipient firm tries to participate in the European market.
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EU Reiterates That Aid to Afghanistan Dependent on 'Rebuilding the State', 6 May 2021.

European Union foreign ministers discussed their future diplomatic presence in Afghanistan as foreign troops pull out of the country. These talks come after a series of deadly attacks on civilians. "After the terrible attacks of recent days, it is all the more important for the EU to make very clear that Afghanistan and the Afghan government can continue to count on Europe's support," German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told reporters in Brussels.
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EU-India leaders' meeting via video conference, Porto, 8 May 2021.

The leaders of the world's two largest democracies met via video conference on 8 May 2021. At the end of the meeting the leaders adopted a comprehensive joint statement. The meeting reinforced the EU-India strategic partnership, which is underpinned by the shared values of democracy, freedom, rule of law and respect for human rights. The leaders agreed to resume free trade negotiations and start negotiations on two additional trade agreements. They also launched a new connectivity partnership.
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EU should speed up accession of entire Western Balkans, Slovenia’s president says, 14 may 2021.

Slovenian President Borut Pahor called on 14 May for the European Union to speed up the process of admitting the six countries of the Western Balkans to the bloc, calling it a crucial step for the preservation of stability in the region. Europe and the United States say that the Western Balkans, comprising Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, will ultimately join the EU, after the ethnic wars of the 1990s. After meeting Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Pahor said that the enlargement of the EU to the Western Balkans was a “geopolitical necessity”, but that the region must advance jointly toward membership of the bloc.
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Response of Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Russia's decision to include Czech Republic in list of "unfriendly countries", 14 May 2021.

As Russia included the Czech Republic in its list of unfriendly states and capped the number of employees in the Czech embassy, the latter has released the following statement: “We consider this course of action by the Russian Federation to be another step towards the escalation of relations not only with the Czech Republic, but also with the EU and its allies. Moreover, it is completely contrary to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, especially in relation to the commitment of its signatories to allow diplomatic missions to function properly and to the principle of non-discrimination between states. We regret that Russia is choosing the path of confrontation to its own detriment, as this measure will also have an indirect effect on the possible development of contacts between ordinary citizens, on tourism, and on the development of trade relations”.
Meanwhile, the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has dismissed Czech call to expel further Russian diplomats
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Facebook loses court fight over halting EU-US data transfers, 14 May 2021.

Facebook has lost a legal battle with Ireland’s data privacy watchdog over a European Union privacy decision that could result in the social network being forced to stop transferring data to the U.S. The Irish High Court rejected Facebook’s bid to block a draft decision by the country’s Data Protection Commission to inquire into, and order the suspension of, the company’s data flows between the European Union and the U.S.
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Business and Economy
Italy submits its Recovery Plan to EU Commission just before deadline, 1 May 2021.

Italy submitted its Recovery Plan to the European Commission just getting the document to Brussels within the April 30 target date set for all 27 European Union countries. The plans are a prerequisite to receive cash from the EU’s one-off, 750-billion-euro ($902 billion) fund set up to help member states recover from the coronavirus pandemic and give the continent a greener, more digital and more resilient economy. Italy, among the countries hardest-hit by COVID-19, is eligible for some 205 billion euros, the largest slice offered to any EU state.
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Microsoft pledges to let European Union users keep data inside bloc, 6 May 2021.

Microsoft “will go beyond our existing data storage commitments and enable you to process and store all your data in the EU," said Brad Smith, the US technology giant’s president. Microsoft is pledging to let business and public sector customers in the European Union keep cloud computing data inside the 27-nation bloc to avert concerns about US government access to sensitive information. Transatlantic data protection has been a growing concern since the European Union's top court struck down a data sharing agreement last year known as Privacy Shield. The court said the agreement, which allowed businesses to transfer data to the US under the EU's strict data privacy rules, was invalid because it didn't go far enough to prevent the American government from snooping on user data.
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EU leaders raise doubts over U.S. plan to waive Covid vaccine patents, 10 May 2021.

European leaders have doubts that waiving intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines, a proposal recently supported by the United States, is the way to go. Instead, they have criticized the U.S. for not exporting Covid shots. “It is not really a matter of intellectual property rights. You can give the intellectual property to labs that do not know how to produce (the vaccine) and they won’t be able to produce it overnight,” French President Emmanuel Macron noted. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “I made clear here already that I don’t believe that releasing patents is the solution to provide vaccines for more people.”
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EU economy to expand, bouncing back from pandemic crisis, 12 May 2021.

The European Union economy is set to bounce back strongly this year after the deep coronavirus recession and member states are forecast to regain the ground lost by the end of next year. In its latest forecast, the EU’s executive commission significantly upgraded its predictions for economic growth. It said that growth in the 27-nation bloc is predicted to expand by 4.2% this year, a significant uptick from a February prediction of 3.7%. “Recovery is no longer a mirage. It is under way,” said EU Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. “After a weak start to the year, we project strong growth in both 2021 and 2022.”
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A New Era of Export Controls Begins in the EU: The Revised EU Dual-Use Export Controls to Promote Human Rights, 14 May 2021.

On May 10, 2021, the EU adopted its new, revised version of Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 (the “Regulation”). It is widely acknowledged to be the first major reform to the structure of the EU’s export control regime since 2009. The Regulation introduces stricter controls on cyber-surveillance items that may be used in violation of human rights outside the territory of the EU; an EU-level coordination mechanism which allows for greater exchange between the Member States concerning the export of cyber-surveillance items; intra-company group exports of software and technology on specified conditions to certain listed countries (notably not including China), and exports of controlled encryption items to all but a small number of listed countries.
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Health and Environment
EU regulators start review of China's Sinovac vaccine, 5 May 2021.

The European Union’s drug regulator says it has started a rolling review of China’s Sinovac coronavirus vaccine to assess its effectiveness and safety, which is a first step toward possible approval for use in the 27-nation bloc. Click here to read...

EU: Pandemic measures to total about $5.85 trillion, 10 May 2021.

EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni has pointed out that the recovery measures the EU and its 27 member states have in the works to emerge from the pandemic total around $5.85 trillion. “Measures taken until now from member states and the EU reach so far 4.8 trillion” euros, the Italian commissioner told legislators, sweeping aside criticism that authorities weren't doing enough compared with Washington. The EU has agreed to a common recovery fund package of 750 billion euros ($910 billion), plus a 1.1 trillion euro ($1.3 trillion) seven-year budget that will be strongly geared toward dealing with the unprecedented economic recession caused by COVID-19 that the bloc's 450 million citizens will have to overcome.
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EU agrees potential 1.8 billion-dose purchase of Pfizer jab, 10 May 2021.

The European Union has cemented its support for Pfizer-BioNTech and its novel COVID-19 vaccine technology by agreeing to a massive contract extension for a potential 1.8 billion doses through 2023.
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European Union Seeks to Reopen Travel with Vaccination Pass, 11 May 2021.

As COVID-19 infection rates begin to drop in the region, European Union ministers are considering a "green certificate" travel pass designed to make it easier for fully vaccinated tourists to travel in the continent in time for the summer vacation season. The European Commission, first suggested the plan earlier this year, patterned after the so-called “Green Pass” issued in Israel that allows vaccinated people access to certain venues or events. In Europe, the commission suggested the certificates would allow EU residents who can prove they have been vaccinated, as well as those who tested negative for the virus or have proof, they recovered from it, to move freely around the continent.
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EU chases 90m AstraZeneca vaccines in fresh legal battle, 12 May 2021.

The European Union has launched a fresh legal action against AstraZeneca - in a bid to oblige the company to deliver 90 million doses of its Covid-19 vaccine to EU member states by the end of June. This is the second lawsuit filed by Brussels against the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company over delayed deliveries. But the multinational now could face financial penalties for failing to meet its contractual obligations.
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Merkel Urges EU Partners to Match More Ambitious Climate Goal, 15 May 2021.

Chancellor Angela Merkel urged European Union partners to match Germany’s more ambitious path to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, and said wealthier nations must increase their contribution to funding global efforts to tackle climate change. With a national election just over four months away and the Greens leading in opinion polls, Merkel’s conservative bloc and her Social Democrat junior partners are seeking to burnish their environmental credentials.

Their haste comes after Germany’s constitutional court forced the government to amend the country’s climate legislation. The judges determined last month that a 2019 law put young people’s future rights at risk by postponing most emissions cuts until after 2030. The coalition has now pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, five years earlier than a joint EU goal and the shortest timeline among major economies.
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Perspective
How easy would it be for Scotland to re-join the European Union? 10 May 2021.

Scotland's separatist parties won a majority of seats at last Thursday's election, meaning leaving the United Kingdom is once again being talked about. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Scottish Greens, both stood on a platform of independence and re-joining the European Union, winning more than 50% of the vote.

The UK government is currently ruling out another referendum, but if the moment does arrive, how easy would it actually be for the Scots to rejoin the EU? Kirsty Hughes, director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations said there wouldn't be too much difficulty, given the country's recent history within the bloc. "If there is a yes vote in a referendum, then I think if it's in the next five years, Scotland is going to still be very close to EU laws and legislation that's got almost half a century experience being within the European Union," Hughes told Euronews. "So I think there is a fairly clear path to accession." "An independent Scotland is going to have to realise though that there's a process to go through, criteria to meet," she added. "There's no sort of nice wishful thinking and the wave of a wand and you're just back in because you were in once before." Right now, the UK is in almost complete alignment with EU law, but this could change over the next few years, depending on how far the UK decides to go in its own post-Brexit direction.
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RUSSIA

Politics and Society
First batch of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine delivered to India, 1 May 2021.

The first batch of Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine arrived in India on Saturday, a TASS correspondent reported. The vaccine was delivered to the airport of Hyderabad, the capital of the Indian state of Telangana, by the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), which oversees the project. Click here to read...

Victory Parade on Red Square, 9 May 2021.

Vladimir Putin attended the military parade to mark the 76th anniversary of the Victory in ‘the Great Patriotic War’ of 1941-1945. Together with the President of Russia, the President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon watched the parade.
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Putin submits legislation on Russian withdrawal from Open Skies treaty, 11 May 2021.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday submitted legislation to parliament to formalise a Russian exit from the Open Skies treaty, a pact that allows unarmed surveillance flights over member countries.
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Russian FM Lavrov in Baku: Normalization of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations is in Russia's best interest, 11 May 2021.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has paid a visit to Baku and held a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. During the meeting with President Aliyev, Lavrov stressed that “military aspects of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict are resolved”. Prior to his arrival in Baku on May 5-6, Sergey Lavrov visited Yerevan, where he met with the acting Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ara Ayvazyan.
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No alternative to political, diplomatic solution of Palestinian problem – Peskov, 13 May 2021.

The parties to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict need to realize that there is no alternative to political and diplomatic settlement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "Most importantly, the conflicting sides themselves should realize the absence of any alternative to the political and diplomatic settlement tools provided by UN resolutions and agreements," Peskov told journalists, when asked whether Russia and other members of the international community should step up their efforts to de-escalate the recent tensions between Palestine and Israel.
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Foreign IT giants to be punished with ad ban, payment blocking for lacking branches in Russia - bill co-author, 13 May 2021.

A bill compelling major foreign IT companies to have branches in Russia will envisage economic sanctions, up to the blocking of payments, the bill's co-author, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Information Technologies, and Communication Alexander Khinshtein, said. "Our bill will compel the owners of major information resources with a daily Russian audience exceeding 500,000 to open offices (branches) which will fully represent their interests and bear responsibility for their activity, in particular, with the authorities and in court. We plan to submit the bill to the State Duma in the near future," Khinshtein said on Telegram.
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Russia offers its Covid-19 vaccine to all partners in UN, G20 - PM Mishustin, 14 May 2021.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has confirmed Russia's offer to supply its Covid-19 vaccine to partners within the United Nations, the G20, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and help them conduct mass vaccination.

"The pandemic of the coronavirus infection has reaffirmed the great importance of joint coordinated steps by all member states of the organization. Russia became the world's first country to develop and register a coronavirus vaccine, and we have offered it to all partners within the UN, the G20, BRICS, and the SCO and have proposed establishing constructive interaction in this issue and helping them carry out mass vaccination," Mishustin said at a meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
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Russian government approves list of unfriendly countries, 14 May 2021.

The Russian government has approved a list of unfriendly countries. There are two names on the list - the United States and the Czech Republic. Measures will be applied in accordance with President Vladimir Putin's decree of April 23 imposing restrictions on hiring people living in Russia by diplomatic missions of unfriendly countries. The Czech Republic will be allowed to hire no more than 19 Russian nationals to work for its embassy, and the United States, not a single one.

This move comes after the US imposed fresh sanctions on Russia in mid-April and the Czech Republic accused Russia of having been behind the blasts at munitions depots in Vrbetice (2014) and expelled 18 Russian diplomats who, it claimed, were officers of Russian intelligence services.
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Health and Economy
Vector holding clinical trials to boost immunity with 3 shots of EpiVacCorona vaccine – developer, 5 May 2021.

The Vector Center of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) is testing the possibility of administering three shots of the EpiVacCorona coronavirus vaccine as a way to enhance the effect of antibodies, head of the Vector department for zoonotic infections Alexander Ryzhikov said. "We have tested this, the triple vaccination, on animals [...] and the effect of higher and longer immunity has been confirmed; phases 1-2 of the clinical trials, in which three shots of the vaccine are administered, are underway," Ryzhikov said on Rospotrebnadzor's Instagram account. "Introducing a third vaccination is always natural for this type of vaccine," he said. Click here to read...

Bahrain, RDIF agree on local production of Sputnik V, 12 May 2021.

Bahrain and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) have reached an agreement in principle on producing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine against the coronavirus infection in the kingdom, Bahrain’s Ambassador to Moscow Ahmed Al-Saati said at a meeting with Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation Anton Kobyakov.
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Russian GDP growth to be nearer 4% in 2021, then without any transformations to be closer to potential of 2% - CBR, 13 May 2021.

Russian economic growth will be nearer to 4% in 2021; in the current year and the next, this will be recovery growth, Central Bank of Russia department head Kirill Tremasov said. In April, the CBR maintained its Russian GDP forecast for 2021 in the range of 3.0-4.0%, for 2022 - 2.5-3.5%, and for 2023 - 2.0-3.0%. The Russian Economic Development Ministry expects GDP growth in 2021 at the level of 2.9%, having lowered it from 3.3% in April; in 2022 - 3.2%, lowered from 3.4%; and in 2023 - 3.0%.

Russia may register nasal COVID-19 vaccine in 2022 — developer, 14 May 2021.

Russia may register a nasal vaccine against COVID-19 developed by the Gamaleya Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology in 2022, if the clinical trials planned for 2021-2022 are successful, head of the center Alexander Ginzburg told TASS. "The center is carrying out works in several areas on creating and improving COVID-19 vaccines. One of the areas is dealing with creating a nasal form of the vaccine. Right now, pre-clinical trials of such a vaccine are held. We plan to launch clinical trials late this year or in early 2022, with registration planned for 2022 on the outcomes of the trials," the researcher said.
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Perspective
Moscow’s interests in Myanmar are fuelled by rivalry with the West, 4 May 2021.

Russia’s muted response to the coup should be understood in the context of Russia’s trade relations with Myanmar, the Kremlin’s ideology and the current state of Russia’s relations with the West. Russia has not condoned the coup and supported the UN Security Council statement that condemned violence against peaceful protesters. But in line with its policy of non-interference, Moscow also blocked a stronger condemnation of the coup and opposed sanctions against the junta.
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The Gaza Tightrope: Can Russia Balance Good Relations with Both Israel and Palestine? 15 may 2021.

The Kremlin is treading lightly. The Putin administration, which went to great lengths to build a functioning regional partnership with Jerusalem following Russia’s intervention into the Syrian Civil War, has been hesitant to support any intervention or peace initiative that can be interpreted as outwardly hostile to Israel. At the same time, Russia- in contrast to the United States and European Union- does not recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization and has previously received delegations from the latter to discuss peace efforts. By dint of its regional clout and its credibility with both of the belligerents, Moscow sees itself as uniquely positioned to affect the reconciliation process between Israel and Palestine.
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