Fortnightly Review & Analysis - USA, EU and Eurasia (Vol 1 Issue VI)

(September 1-15, 2016)

USA

Elections

With less than two months left for the US election polling date on 8 November, the race to the White House seems to be getting harsher with charges flying back and forth between the two candidates. Clinton's health has become a "major issue" in the lead-up to the election, as Hillary Clinton had two health related incidents within a week. Clinton's speech at a campaign rally on Labour Day in Cleveland was interrupted by a coughing spell. During the speech, she quipped: "Every time I think about Trump I get allergic". Her personal doctor diagnosed Hillary Clinton with pneumonia after the US Democratic presidential candidate first stumbled and then her knees buckled at a 9/11 memorial. Republican rival Donald Trump and his supporters have been hinting at potential health issues for months, questioning Clinton's stamina when she takes routine days off the campaign trail and reviving questions about a concussion she sustained in December 2012 after fainting.

Clinton and Trump are the oldest candidates to contest the US presidential elections and the health of both is naturally under scrutiny. Clinton's doctor has stated that she is fully recovered from the concussion, which led to temporary double vision and discovery of a blood clot in a vein in the space between her brain and skull. Clinton also has experienced deep vein thrombosis, a clot usually in the leg, and takes the blood thinner Coumadin to prevent new clots.

US-India

Prime Minister Modi had his eighth bilateral meeting with US President Obama at Vientiane, Laos, on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit. A White House official, giving details of the meeting, said, "Reaffirming the strong bonds of friendship between the United States and India, the President underscored that the United States strongly supports India's membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)."

The US "strongly supports" India's NSG membership bid, President Barack Obama told Prime Minister Narendra Modi as they discussed the immediate priorities in the strategic partnership, including deepening the civil nuclear cooperation and combating climate change. The US has been playing a lead role in supporting India's bid in the 48-member elite group. China had scuttled New Delhi's bid at the Plenary Session of NSG in June.

US & Russia – the Syrian Deal

The United States and Russia arrived at a landmark deal on at Geneva on September 10 after over ten months of negotiations in an attempt to end the five-year Syrian Civil War. Both countries hope to put Syria's peace process back on track, including a nationwide ceasefire effective from sundown on Monday, September 12.

US Secretary Of State, John Kerry stated, "Today, Sergey Lavrov and I, on behalf of our president and our countries, call on every Syrian stakeholder to support the plan that the United States and Russia have reached, to ... bring this catastrophic conflict to the quickest possible end through a political process." Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that despite continuing mistrust, the two sides had developed five documents that would enable coordination of the fight against armed groups and a revival of Syria's failed truce in an enhanced form. He further added, "This all creates the necessary conditions for resumption of the political process, which has been stalling for a long time.”

The two powers back opposite sides of the conflict, with Moscow supporting the government of President Bashar al-Assad and the US supporting a coalition of rebel groups that are opposed to Assad’s regime. What challenges the peace process is the vexed question of Assad's fate, with Western powers calling for his removal and Russia backing him, something that could derail the fragile peace.

If Russia is able to pressure Assad to respect the ceasefire for a week, Moscow and Washington plan to set up a joint coordination unit and begin air strikes against agreed DAESH targets. "We will jointly agree on strikes against terrorists to be carried out by the Russian and American air forces. We have agreed on the zones in which these strikes will be carried out," said Lavrov. But both Kerry and Lavrov said the complex plan represents the best available chance to end the fighting between the government and the mainstream opposition rebels, while still targeting Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (the group formerly known as the al-Nusra Front) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group.
But diplomatic tensions between Russia and the US have already mounted due to sporadic violence that puts the ceasefire at risk. The US also blames the Assad regime for not yet allowing humanitarian relief aid to reach the besieged areas, mainly around Aleppo, and feel that Russia is not pressurizing him enough.

Developments in the Central Asian Republics

Uzbekistan: Shavkat Mirziyoyev Named Interim President

Uzbekistan’s parliament has approved the Prime Mminister Shavkat Mirziyoyev as the acting president until Uzbekistan goes for elections in December. This is the clearest sign yet that Mirziyoyev, who was also the Mourner-in-Chief and the Master of Ceremonies at President Karimov’s funeral, could take over as the long-term president of Uzbekistan. Constitutionally, the Senate leader NigmatillaYuldashev should have been assigned the interim role, but he reportedly declined citing “lack of experience”.

Mirziyoyev, who was previously the Governor of the Jizzakh region in 1996 and the Samarkand region in 2001, was often referred to as the right-hand man of President Karimov. A tough, ambitious figure rarely to be seen in public, Mirziyoyev comes to office with a rather controversial baggage. He has been accused by numerous rights groups of strengthening and supporting the use of child and forced labour to harvest cotton, a practice that has attracted vehement international criticism for the ex-Soviet state. Having been the prime minister of Uzbekistan since 2003, Mirziyoyev, is known as a ‘man of the system’ who appointed those who favoured him in key positions of power across the country.

According to political analysts, although Mirziyoyev may not enjoy popular support, his ascendancy to the throne of the president seems almost certain given Uzbekistan’s ‘democratic’ track record, or rather the lack of it. Elections in December may be nothing more than a formality. However, for the sake of political options, finance minister Rustom Azimov may be a possible contender. Clan politics plays a major role in Uzbekistan. Karimov, who ruled the country with an iron fist since 1991 belonged to the Samarkand clan. Interestingly, so does Mirziyoyev.

Rustom Azimov comes from the competing Tashkent clan to which the National Security Council (SNB) chief Rustam Inoyatov belongs. This is significant because given the structure of power which developed under Karimov, the role of the special services remains exceedingly important. Whoever may be the main person in the country, the real power will be with the special services. While Inoyatov may himself not be interested in ruling the country, he is however termed as the king-maker within Uzbekistan, a powerful political ally to any potential leader. Currently, the security organs are monopolized by one clan, a balance which could be thrown out of gear with Karimov’s death. Precisely for this reason, to maintain security and stability and ensure that clan tensions do not jeopardize the existence of the country, it is speculated that Inoyatov may throw his support behind Mirziyoyev.

The geostrategic importance of Uzbekistan should not be underestimated and any instability in the Central Asian country is bound to have global repercussions. Any succession in Uzbekistan could thus realign Uzbekistan’s current trajectory and national interests, with far-reaching regional ramifications.

Kazakhstan: Cabinet Reshuffle Indicates Possible Line of Succession

In a fresh reshuffle on the 13th of September, the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev promoted his daughter Dariga and longtime confidant Imangali Tasmagambetov, two political heavyweights and strong succession candidates, in what is being seen as one of the most significant political moves in recent times. This comes soon after President Nazarbayev demoted the now former prime minister Karim Massimov, appointing him as the chairman of the Committee for National Security due to the latter’s increasing influence in social media particularly with reference to his Russian counterparts. In a country where centralization of power is essential to the sustenance of the leader’s rule, by no means could have President Nazarbayev allowed the spread of Massimov’s popular influence. Ex-first Deputy Prime Minister Bakhytzhan Sagintaev was appointed the acting Prime Minister.

Additionally, the Kazakh presidential website said that Defense Minister Imanghali Tasmaghambetovhad been appointed as deputy prime minister. Deputy Defense Minister Saken Zhasuzaqov was promoted to the post of defense minister. Justice Minister Berik Imashev was appointed the head of the Central Election Commission. Imashev was replaced by Marat Beketaev, the deputy chief of the president’s office.The majority of cabinet ministers have retained their posts. Notably, Nazarbaev's daughter, Darigha Nazarbaeva, who was deputy prime minister in the previous cabinet, was appointed a member of the parliament's upper chamber, the Senate. This, for some may be a subtle indication for a possible line of succession to the post of President, coming in the wake of the death of the long-term Uzbek President Islam Karimov.

Update: Suicide Attack Outside the Chinese Embassy in Krygyzstan

Authorities in Kyrgyzstan have blamed the Uighur militants in Syria for masterminding the suicide bomb attack against the Chinese embassy in Bishkek. Kyrgyzstan’s state security service GKNB pinpointed that the attack wasordered by “Uighur militants active in Syria and affiliated to the terrorist organization the Nusra Front whose emissaries…financed the terrorist action,” and carried out by a member of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying stressed that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement was a recognized terrorist group which constitutes a serious threat to China, Syria, Central Asia and many other countries and regions. It was also mentioned that an arrest warrant had also been issued for another native of Kyrgyzstan, an explosives specialist trained in Syria and the holder of a Tajik passport, who helped to prepare the attack but flew to Istanbul several hours before the explosion.

Apart from the ethnic Uighur suspected of having carried out the attack, all others accused of ordering, financing and preparing it are alleged to have come from the two southern Kyrgyz regions in the Ferghana Valley, which in recent times is said to have become a source of radical Islamists in Central Asia.

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