(August 16 - 31, 2016)
USA
US-India Strategic and Commercial Dialogue
The last fortnight of August witnessed intense diplomatic activities between India and the U.S, as Secretary of State John Kerry and Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker traveled to New Delhi for the second ‘Strategic and Commercial (S&C) Dialogue’ and Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar went to Washington DC. Senior officials from 12 different U.S. agencies were part of the second Strategic and Commercial dialogue that was co-chaired by the U.S Secretaries and their Indian counterparts External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. There were a number of preparatory meetings preceding the two main ministerial meetings. The Strategic and Commercial Dialogue is the main bilateral forum for advancing shared security and economic priorities of the US and India. The main purpose of Kerry on his fourth, and last visit to India, was to look for ways to bring about a five-fold increase in US-India bilateral trade by hiking it to USD 500 billion. But this target still seems a long way off.
In his press conference, Kerry confirmed that the US giant Westinghouse made progress on an agreement on the construction of six nuclear reactors. "We hope to see our civil nuclear cooperation take shape in the form of new reactors that will deliver reliable electricity to tens of millions of Indian households," Mr Kerry said. The deal has been held up in the past by concerns over India's liability laws that would make US companies liable for accidents at plants they helped build.
The US also promised to push India's bid at "the highest levels" before the next NSG meeting later this year. Ms Swaraj said she has thanked the US for its support for India's bid to join the elite Nuclear Suppliers Group or NSG, a group of 48 countries. Earlier this year, the US led an initiative for India to gain admission to the bloc that trades in sophisticated nuclear material and technology, but China fronted a group of countries that blocked India's membership.
US-India Defence Agreement – LEMOA
On 29 August 2016, India and the United States signed a defence agreement that has been in the making for over a decade. Called the ‘Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement’ (LEMOA), the pact was signed in the presence of India’s Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter at the Pentagon in Washington DC. It enables militaries of both countries to use each other’s facilities to replenish warships, aircraft and ground troops. Earlier in May this year, Carter and Parrikar had announced in Delhi an ‘in-principle’ commitment to the LEMOA. It is a customised version of the Logistics Support Agreement (LSA) or Acquisitions & Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) – arrangements that the US has with about a 100 countries across the world.
According to the Press release, the Agreement includes “Logistic Support, Supplies, and Services include food, water, billeting, transportation, petroleum, oils, lubricants, clothing, communication services, medical services, storage services, training services, spare parts and components, repair and maintenance services, calibration services, and port services”. Reciprocal logistic support would be used exclusively during authorized port visits, joint exercises, joint training, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts. Contrary to apprehensions about the intrusive nature of the pact, the LEMOA does not authorize the establishment of any military bases or does not provide for basing arrangements. Neither does the agreement create any obligations on the part of either India or US to carry out any joint activity of military nature.
Parrikar and Carter also made it clear in their respective remarks what LEMOA meant. “It (LEMOA) doesn’t have anything to do with the setting up of a base. It’s basically logistics support to each other’s fleet, like supply of fuel, supply of many other things that are required for joint operations, humanitarian assistance and many other relief operations. So, it will basically ensure that both navies can be supportive of each other in the joint venture operations we do, exercises we do,” Parrikar pointed out.
Carter said the agreement would make joint operations between their militaries logistically easier and more efficient. “It is fully mutual. In other words, we grant one another completely equal access and ease under this agreement. It’s not a basing agreement of any kind, but it does make the logistics of joint operations so much easier and so much more efficient.”
Russia and the US
In a major breakthrough, the US and Russia are likely to complete a major military alliance agreement that will call for close military and intelligence cooperation in Syria. The deal, however, hinges largely on Russian willingness to pressure President Bashar al-Assad to refrain from targeting civilian areas and allowing for both food and medical aid to flow into impacted areas.
Pursuant to the proposed arrangement, US and Russia would coordinate airstrikes against Daesh (ISIS) as well as al Qaeda-linked terrorists including the former al-Nusra Front. While they would jointly takeover the aerial campaign against the jihadists in Syria, Assad’s Syrian Arab Army Air Force would be grounded in a bid to prevent unnecessary collateral damage against civilians and US-backed rebels.
According to media reports, “The measure looks to rectify a major point of contention between the US and Russia with many of the so-called 'moderate' rebels now finding themselves embedded with the freshly rebranded al-Qaeda affiliate formerly known as al-Nusra Front under the umbrella group known as The Army of Conquest. Russian airstrikes against al-Nusra targets have often come under scrutiny due to the interwoven nature of the anti-Assad alliance.”
Russian media reports say that the “negotiations are a final salvo by the Obama Administration to prevent the surge in deaths in Syria and to stem the flow of refugees into Europe at a time when the conflict nears a breaking point”. Efforts at diplomacy appear to be led by a dovish wing in the State Department including Secretary John Kerry who garnered a greater appreciation for Russia’s role in Syria after Putin helped Obama walk back from the ‘red-line’ while leaders in the Pentagon are reportedly calling for the US to ‘walk out’ of negotiations.
The negotiations are tough nevertheless and a deal seems nowhere in sight. The US and Russia have struggled on the sidelines of the G 20 Summit to keep alive the negotiations to end the bloodshed between U.S.-backed rebels and Syria's Russian-aligned regime. Even as top diplomats vowed to keep trying, President Barack Obama expressed skepticism regarding an unlikely alliance between rivals yielding any breakthrough needed to end the 5-year-old civil war. According to a CBS news analysis, the deal, if completed would be a ground breaking one and "would also put Russian President Vladimir Putin back at global player status".
Developments in The Central Asian Republics
Uzbekistan
President Karimov’s Death Creates Political Void in
Putting intense speculation to rest, the Uzbek government, through the state run news agency Uzra declared on Friday, 2nd of September, the death of Uzbekistan’s first and only president, Islam Karimov. Political struggles started in the corridors of power not long after the Uzbek strongman suffered a stroke, almost a week earlier, on the possibility of succession. Karimov has died without nominating the successor to a highly centralized, dictatorial regime, plunging Uzbekistan, into what most experts believe, a state of utter political and administrative chaos.
After a funeral ceremony in Samarkand’s (also the president’s hometown) the ancient Registan Square, his body was taken to the Shah-i-Zinda cemetery where the Uzbek leader was finally laid to rest. Speculations over Karimov’s health started soon after state media, in an unprecedented move, declared the criticality of his medical state. It has been a long-held practice, inherited from the Soviet era, to maintain silence over such sensitive issues given the exceedingly centralized state structure which puts all powers in the hands of the nominated chief.
A respected opposition news agency - Fergana.ru - had reported the death of the president as early as on the 29th of August. The process of sending invites to world leaders for Karimov’s funeral started even before the death was formally declared. Amid the murkiness of power succession, keeping bad news about an autocrat under wraps is a practice Uzbekistan carried forward to prevent any untoward incident which may work against the favour of those close to the state leader.
Condolence messages started pouring in soon after the official declaration. In a brief message, the Chinese president Xi Jinping expressed remorse stating that, “President Karimov had dedicated himself over a long period to friendly Sino-Uzbek cooperation and put painstaking efforts into developing an all-round, strategic partnership and increasing the traditional friendship between the two peoples”. “Karimov’s unfortunate passing is not only a huge loss to the Uzbek people, but also means the Chinese people have lost a true friend,” President Xi added.
Expressing grief over the death of President Karimov, President Barack Obama said that the United States remains committed to its partnership with the Central Asian nation. “At this challenging time of President Islom Karimov’s passing, the United States reaffirms its support for the people of Uzbekistan. This week, I congratulated President Karimov and the people of Uzbekistan on their country’s 25 years of independence. As Uzbekistan begins a new chapter in its history, the United States remains committed to partnership with Uzbekistan, to its sovereignty, security, and to a future based on the rights of all its citizens”, the statement added.
A telegram of condolences by the Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed, “His [Karimov’s] passing away means a heavy loss for the entire people of Uzbekistan, for the Commonwealth of Independent States and for the partner nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.” The Kremlin's top political adviser, Yuri Ushakov, also said on Saturday that Moscow expected the political situation in Uzbekistan to remain stable.
The immediate succession is expected to follow the Constitution, which mandates that the head of the Senate run the country for three months until new presidential elections can be organized. Further, it must be noted that power in Uzbekistan was traditionally concentrated in the hands of the National Security Service, modeled on the old K.G.B. of the Soviet Union. Therefore, many contend that its longstanding but reportedly ailing director, Rustam Inoyatov, is expected to wield the greatest influence in the selection of the next president. The president’s widow, Tatyana Karimova, an economist, also holds considerable sway. However, neither is known to be seeking a wider public role. Gulnara Karimova, the president’s older daughter, once seen as the potential successor to her father’s regime appears to have fallen out of favour and placed under house arrest after a much publicized spat involving charges of bribery, money laundering, physical violence and even sorcery.
Prime Minister Mirziyoev, who is considered a Kremlin ally, and was declared ‘Mourner-in-Chief’ at the funeral ceremony, is appearing as the most likely contender. RustamAzimov, a deputy prime minister and finance minister, is a possible technocratic alternative. Daniil Kislov, the Moscow-based editor of Ferghana, in an interview with the New York Times said, “Islam Karimov has built a very stable system of power, which is based on the power of the special services. Regardless of who is the main person in the country, the real power will be with the special services.” This indeed does sum up the broader sentiment in the country.
Kyrgyzstan
Suicide Bombing outside Chinese Embassy
According to official sources, a suicide bomber rammed the gates of the Chinese embassy in the Kyrgyz capital city of Bishkek wounding at least three employees. Media reports later surfaced claiming that an “explosive device” had been placed inside the vehicle and the car later blew up in the centre of the compound, close to the ambassador’s residence. The country’s deputy prime minister declared the attack as an apparent case of suicide bombing and “a terrorist act.”
According to Raffaello Pantucci, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, the target of the attack was very specifically the Chinese embassy, since its location is not exactly “the heart of the town.”
In a short statement on its website condemning the assault, China's Foreign Ministry said the government had asked Kyrgyzstan to take steps to protect Chinese nationals and organisations, andmake efforts to bring those behind the attack to justice.The Chinese embassy has advised people to exercise caution about visiting Kyrgyzstan and urged those already in the country to be on alert. “(We) remind Chinese citizens and organizations in Kyrgyzstan to be on high alert, increase necessary security measures and response preparations, go out as little as possible and not go to crowded places.”
According to a report published in The Guardian, “China has been waging what it calls a “people’s war on terror” in the restive western region (of Xinjiang) since 2014.” Evidently, the blame for the attack is likely to fall on the Uighur ethnic minority, who have been waging a sort of low intensity insurgence against Chinese rule in the Chinese province of Xinjinag.
Recently, extremist activities are on a sharp increase in the Central Asian region. A Turkish official is on record stating that one of the three suspected Islamic State suicide bombers involved in the deadly attack on Istanbul's main airport was a Kyrgyz national. Not too long ago, Kazakhstan had been under attack by what state sources claim were Islamist extremists, when gun-armed militants struck the cities of Aktobe and Almaty in June and July 2016 respectively.
