(October 01-15, 2016)

USA

It was a riveting fortnight in US presidential politics that featured GOP nominee Donald Trump’s offensive rhetoric toward women. The fortnight also saw both party nominees take the stage for the second, highly anticipated presidential debate. But the focus was not on the main issues or the candidates’ policy records or visions for America. America, and the rest of the world, was more focused on how the GOP nominee’s recently revealed dirty laundry would be discussed.

Donald Trump’s irresponsible utterances put him in a tight spot and he has had a tough time convincing the American people that he is not the same man who was heard making disparaging remarks about women 11 years ago. He has tried to convince that his values and vision are above reproach and if elected, he would improve the lives of all Americans. He also has had a tough time convincing the GOP members that he would mend the fissures within the Party and that his candidacy was still viable.

Trump had a challenging first 30 minutes of the debate. He recovered, however – but only marginally so. The viewing audience’s response to the remainder of the debate went two different directions. Those that supported Trump before the debate thought he was dominant when he discussed policy. Those that backed Clinton before the debate thought her performance was masterful. Trump talked very critically about the fallout of Obamacare in a way that may not have landed powerfully for all Americans, but for undecided voters who are struggling to find affordable health care, his discussion of this issue seemed to have connected.

But he blew up his chance by repeatedly bringing up President Clinton’s indiscretions, and by his continued barrage of interruptions that characterized his first debate. Also his “fact-checkable” claims were not true, he threatened to imprison his political opponent, referred to Clinton as “the devil,” and brushed over, rather than sincerely apologize, for his comments about women.

The two moderators, Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz deserve credit for the manner in which they steered the debate toward the real issues and topics that will matter to the everyday lives of Americans. While the two candidates aired the dirty laundry, Cooper and Raddatz moved the debate on to topics like health care, relations with the Muslim community, immigration decisions around Syrian refugees, tax policy, and more.

The answers from the candidates included a blend of their campaign positions on the issues and attacks on their opponents. That should not be seen as a weakness from either Clinton or Trump as articulating one’s own positions while attacking an opponent’s is part of politics. Unlike the first presidential debate and the vice presidential debate, this debate featured a discussion of legitimate, meaningful public policy.

Clinton remained poised during the hammering from Trump and tougher-than-the-first-debate questions from the moderators and audience. She offered sound responses to the questions and did not fall apart or stray from the type of steadiness she showed in the first debate. In particular, Clinton showed her knowledge about policy matters in discussing the specifics of foreign policy, especially in the Middle East, in a manner that showed a comfort with the details rather than simply talking points. While she impressed with her articulation of policy details, she did not widen the polling lead over her rival during the over the previous fortnight.

US –Russia Relations

US-Russia relations deteriorated sharply amid a barrage of accusations and disagreements, raising the stakes on issues ranging from the countries' competing military operations in Syria, disputes over Ukraine and allied matters in Eastern Europe and escalating cyber breaches.

The friction between Moscow and Washington - by many assessments at its highest level since the fall of the Berlin Wall -led Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, to make a plea for dialogue and de-escalation. According to the Agence France-Presse, Gorbachev warned, "I think the world has reached a dangerous point …."This needs to stop. We need to renew dialogue," while commenting on the US decision to call off Syria talks that broke down as US officials suggested Russia be investigated for war crimes in the besieged city of Aleppo.

The Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov upped the rhetorical fire, accusing the United States of operating a "scorched earth" policy in its approach to Russia as President Barak Obama's term ends.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova characterized the American move as "dangerous," charging that the United States has actively blocked the release of finances from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to projects in Russia.

"Nobody should harbor the illusion that you can pressure Russia, neither the current American authorities, nor those who will replace them," Zakharova said.

The US retaliated by accusing Russia of hacking the American elections systems thereby attempting to influence the upcoming vote. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has pointed to the hacks as evidence that Russia favors her GOP opponent, Donald Trump. Appearing at an investment forum in Moscow on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed that charge. "There was a whole hysteria about that being of interest to Russia, but there is nothing within the interest of Russia," Putin said.

But Moscow has taken certain overt steps that have naturally perturbed the West. It abruptly left a nuclear security pact, citing US aggression, and moved nuclear-capable Iskandar missiles to the edge of NATO territory in Europe. Its ships and planes have buzzed their US counterparts. Its officials have openly raised the possible use of nuclear weapons. "This is a conflict, there should be no doubt," said Matthew Rojansky, director of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center, on the US-Russia confrontation.

But fortunately measures are in place to re-start communication channels and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry have arranged to meet in a multilateral setting to discuss a Syria ceasefire, a sign that despite the strains, Kerry continues to try to find middle ground with Russia.

EU and BREXIT

The British Pound Sterling has fallen by around 15 per cent in trade-weighted terms since Britain voted to quit the EU. Opponents of Brexit have argued that the British are markedly poorer than they were, because the devaluation was in effect a write-down of the value of UK assets. They have also argued that the weakening of sterling will push up inflation, depressing real incomes. If the currency falls further, it could even force the Bank of England to raise interest rates in order to shore up investor confidence in the British economy in efforts to stabilize the currency. That, according to financial analysts would increase the cost of borrowing for firms and households and depress economic activity.

For their part, Brexiters portray the fall in the value of sterling in a positive light. They claim that it will boost Britain’s exports and help neutralize any negative impact from leaving the EU’s single market. Some commentators also claim the pound’s devaluation will shift economic activity away from the dominant services sector in London towards manufacturing in other parts of Britain, arguing that the strength of London’s internationally-traded services sector elevated the pound to a level that rendered these regions uncompetitive.

Many economists prior to the referendum had been predicting an immediate and significant impact on the UK economy and consumer confidence should the country vote to leave the EU. But so far these predictions have not come to pass.

The UK services sector grew 0.4% in July, much more strongly than expected in the wake of June's vote to leave the European Union, showing that consumers carried on spending as normal after the Brexit vote.

Other figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show economic growth accelerated faster than thought in the run-up to the referendum. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.7% in the three months to the end of June, up from the 0.6% first estimated.

However, according to sources, there does seem to have been a decline in confidence in the small business sector. The first survey by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) since the Brexit vote showed more small and medium-sized businesses were pessimistic about the future than positive for the first time in four years.

Meanwhile, the OECD has revised its 2016 GDP growth forecasts for the UK slightly upwards from 1.7% to 1.8%. However, it has cut the forecast for 2017 from 2% to 1%, saying: "Uncertainty about the future path of policy and the reaction of the economy remains very high and risks remain to the downside."

The heads of two major Wall Street companies have warned that the UK financial services industry could be damaged by Brexit. Rob Kapito, head of one of the world's largest investment house Blackrock, said there was "a lot of concern" in the financial community, while the president of investment bank Morgan Stanley, Colm Kelleher, said is bank's immediate concern was “whether to invest further in the UK”. It however remains to be seen, how Brexit will impact British economy over the long-term. The debate between both groups continues.

Central Asian Republics

Regional

CSTO International Security Conference

The Council for Collective Security, comprised of the heads of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member states, also the bloc's supreme body met in the Armenian capital of Yerevan to discuss the implementation process of the decisions taken at previous CSTO summits, as well the priorities put forth by Armenia during its presidency in 2015 and 2016. The Council, which is composed of President of Russia Vladimir Putin, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kyrgyzstan Almazbek Atambayev, and President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, discussed the CSTO Collective Security Strategy till 2025, establishment of the CSTO Crisis Response Centre as well as the implementation of the decisions pertaining to the fight against international terrorism at this year’s meeting. According to a statement issued by the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, "A number of serious documents and decisions, related to the significant strengthening of the organization's potential, improvement of the collective security mechanisms and the working bodies, were approved. Among the other results of this session I would like to single out the CSTO strategy for the collective security.”

The organization made a decision at its Yerevan summit to establish its own crisis response center which will be responsible with handling of information - analytical, organizational and technical - support of corresponding decisions reached by the statutory bodies, as well as to ensure the exchange of information in real time. The organization also signed a document on formation of a single list of terrorist groups, keeping in line with the agenda of combating international terrorism.

The Presidency in the CSTO for the coming term of two years beginning 2017, which marks the 25th anniversary of the Collective Security Treaty and the 15th anniversary of the CSTO was passed on to the state of Belarus. On this occasion, President Sargsyan wished success to Belarusian head of state Alexander Lukashenko and Belarus as a whole in fulfilling these functions and implementing the decisions adopted at the current summit. “We are ready to render all possible assistance,” President Sargsyan is learnt to have said.

Kyrgyzstan

Expanding Ambit of China-Kyrgyzstan Relations

Liu Yunshan, a senior official of the Communist Party of China (CPC), met on October 14th, with Chynybai Tursunbekov, president of the Kyrgyz Parliament and a leader of the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) and a host of other state representatives to discuss the role of political parties in innovation of global economic governance. The CPC in Dialogue with the World 2016 , themed "Innovation of Global Economic Governance: The Party's Governing Philosophy and Actions," was held in Chongqing Municipality in southwest China from 13th to 15th October 2016.

Speaker Tursunbekov is on record to have stated that Kyrgyzstan supports China's efforts in fighting terrorism, extremism and separatism. He also stressed the need to expand trade and economic cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and China. "Xi Jinping's initiative on the establishment of the Economic Belt of the Silk Road will accelerate the development of cooperation between the parties," the speaker said. Regarding the projects implemented in Kyrgyzstan owing to the efforts by the Chinese, Tursunbekov mentioned the construction of Kyrgyzstan - China gas pipeline, the alternative road North - South and the modernization of Bishkek HPP. He also expressed hope that the views of all sides would be taken into account in the construction of China - Kyrgyzstan - Uzbekistan railway.

Mr. Yunshan also expressed interest in expanding economic cooperation. "It is necessary to take measures to create conditions and opportunities for exchange of experience in training of personnel, as the future of our country depends on skilled workers," he said. Quoting Chinese sources , Mr. Yunshan said that China is ready to work with Kyrgyzstan to deepen their cooperation under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, enhance political mutual trust, and consolidate their friendship. Tursunbekov echoed Liu, saying Kyrgyzstan is willing to implement the cooperation plan it has already reached with China and promote the integration of the Belt and Road Initiative with Kyrgyzstan's development strategy.

Additionally, both sides discussed the current state and prospects of development of relations in the sphere of culture and education, in particular, the issue of increasing the quota for Kyrgyz students at Chinese universities.

Kazakhstan?

Kazakhstan Establishes ‘Peace Prize’; Awards it to the King of Jordan

The president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, declared King Abdullah II of Jordan to be the first recipient of a new $1 million award established by the ex-Soviet Central Asian nation to acknowledge contributions to global security, regional stability and nuclear disarmament by world leaders and organizations. President Nazarbayev hailed the king's efforts to make Jordan an anchor of stability in the turbulent Middle East region. Abdullah is to receive the inaugural prize next month in Kazakhstan's capital, Astana. It must be noted that during the Soviet times, Kazakhstan's territory was used by the Soviet Union to conduct nuclear weapons tests. The prize marks the closure of the test facility in Semipalatinsk.

Three Terror Suspects Detained in Kazakhstan

The Kazakh security forces detained three members of a radical group, who planned to carry out terrorist attacks against law enforcement agencies in the country, the Kazakh National Security Committee (NSC) said in a statement issued on Tuesday, 11^tgh October. "On October 10, 2016, NSC officers detained three members of a radical group in Almaty, suspected of planning terrorist attacks against law enforcement and special agencies," the statement reads. According to the NSC, components of improvised explosive devices and detonators, religious and extremist materials, calling for terrorist attacks, have been seized from the detainees. The criminal activities of 29 extremists have been stopped in Almaty since the beginning of 2016, according to the committee. This comes after a lone gunman with Islamist links killed at least three policemen and two civilians in Kazakhstan's financial capital Almaty on July 18, the second such attack in less than two months.

Kazakhstan Looks to Ban ‘Salafi’ Branch of Islam

Kazakhstan's newly created Ministry of Religious Issues and Civil Society says it is taking steps to ban the Salafi branch of Islam in the country. Minister Nurlan Ermekbaev said on October 14 in Astana that Salafism "poses a destructive threat to Kazakhstan" and his ministry was working on steps to legally ban it.” Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev has said that a series of deadly attacks in June in the northwestern city of Aktobe were carried out by Salafists. The Salafi branch of Islam has been branded as extremist and banned in some former Soviet republics. The majority of Muslims in Central Asia are believed to be followers of Hanafi, a more moderate branch of Sunni Islam.

Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan Keen to Open rRailway to Afghanistan in November 2016

In a message released by the Turkmen government on October 8^th, Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov held a meeting dedicated to the upcoming commissioning of the first phase of the transnational railway trunk: Asia International Railway Transportation Corridor. This is the construction of the Atamyrat-Imamnazar (Turkmenistan) – Akina (Afghanistan) section. The completion of the construction and installation work is scheduled for early November 2016. The transportation corridor is expected to pass through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and will have an access to China's extensive rail network and through it, to the rapidly developing states of the Asia-Pacific region.

According to the Neutral Turkmenistan newspaper reports, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan railway will be the next “golden link” of the Asia railway corridor, which, in turn, will be the most important segment of the international network of transportation communications between the two parts of the vast continent – Europe and Asia. President Berdimuhamedov also noted during the meeting that the development of the international transportation corridors meets Turkmenistan’s economic interests.