On 8th November 2024, the General Secretary of NSCN-IM, Thuingaleng Muivah created a buzz by declaring that the GoI has betrayed the letter and spirit behind the Framework Agreement of Aug 2015. In his statement he has sought a third-party intervention, failing which, it would "resume the violent armed resistance against India". “India and its leadership shall be held responsible for the catastrophic and adverse situation that will arise”, he adds. He stated that the NSCN-IM will take whatever steps that are necessary to protect and defend the “Nagalim unique history”, “Nagalim sovereignty and freedom”, “Nagalim sovereign territory”, “Nagalim sovereign flag” and “Nagalim sovereign national constitution” by whatever means including armed struggle. (Barua, Nov 2024)

The Naga insurgency, as is known, is the fountainhead of all insurgencies of the North-East. The Naga movement itself has seen important landmarks that include creation of the Naga Club in 1918 (perhaps the first proclamation of the Naga identity), the Memorandum submitted to the Simon Commission in 1926 by the Nagas, declaration of an independent Naga state on 14th Aug 1947, the so called Naga plebiscite in 1951, commencement of the counter insurgency operations by the Indian Army and Assam Rifles in 1956, the Shillong Accord of 1975, creation of the NSCN in 1980, breakup of the NSCN into NSCN-IM and NSCN-K in 1988, signing of the ceasefire by NSCN-IM and NSCN-K in 1997 and 2001 respectively, the abrogation of the ceasefire by NSCN-K in 2015, creation of the Naga National Political Groups (NNPG)-essentially splinter groups of NSCN-K in 2016 and in recent times the ceasefire by the Khango and Niki Sumi (responsible for the ambush of Indian Army’s 6 Dogra column in Manipur that led to the death of 18 soldiers) groups in 2017 and 2020 respectively. “When the Naga movement started there was only one institution i.e. the Naga National Council that was fully mandated by the people of Nagaland to decide their political future and the entire people rallied behind it. Today, we have about 24 factions each claiming to represent the Nagas whereas there is only one Naga issue to be sorted out”, says Shri SC Jamir, the former CM of Nagaland (Dev, Dec 2023).

The important stakeholders that are there in the ceasefire are three, the NSCN-IM, the NNPG and the Niki Sumi group. With the NSCN-IM, the GoI has the Framework Agreement and with the others, the Agreed Position. The only Naga group that is not in ceasefire is the NSCN-K (Yung Aung) group that is based in Myanmar and which carries out intermittent attacks on the security forces. What is common among all of them is the large amounts of extortion (called taxation by the Naga groups). “Extortion has crippled people and the Naga economy. People were made to maintain stoic silence over all these criminal activities because of fear-psychosis”, says Jamir (Post, Feb 2023)

Of what Muivah has stated, let us consider third party intervention. There is no gainsaying the fact that that it is an out and out internal matter of India, something that has to be finalised only between the two entities involved in this, which is India and the Nagas of India. The Nagas of Myanmar don’t even merit consideration, given that it is 77 years since India emerged as an independent nation. Moreover, Myanmar (then Burma) has been cut out from colonial India 87 years ago! However, it is worth guessing as to which could be the third party; China, US or the UN? Even if just considered hypothetically, China can never be the third party, given that it was China that received the first batch of Naga rebels (including Muivah), funded them, armed them and indoctrinated them so much that the Yehzabu (the much-touted Constitution of the NSCN-IM) is said to be largely Chinese influenced. Today, much of the support that the Alee (Foreign) Command of NSCN-IM (involved in narco-weapons trade too) receives, is still from China. The US or for that matter the UN or any other party similarly cannot also be acceptable to India.

The talks between the NSCN-IM and GoI have been ongoing for 27 years with over 600 rounds of talks, but it is grossly incorrect for Muivah to blame the GoI for the delay in arriving at a ‘Final Solution/Agreement’. The NSCN-IM was a major stake holder in the peace talks, it still is, but today there are multiple voices of the Nagas represented by various other groups like the Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs). The NNPG is led primarily by Nagaland Nagas, who want to resolve the Naga issue within the boundaries of the Nagaland state. It is a well-known fact that the presence of Muivah casts a long shadow on the Naga peace process and his demands are protean. It is his overbearing personality that many say, has stopped NSCN-IM from ending the impasse. Besides, the NSCN-IM under him is known to renege on their assurances. Muivah is also known to scuttle peace deals when they are at the verge of being finalised. He first did it in 1966, as the General Secretary of NNC. He next almost made the 1975 Shillong Accord irrelevant by saying that he did not agree with the peace accord (the reason ostensibly was that at that moment, some of his supporters were on their way to China for training and procurement of weapons). And when in Oct 2019, the Nagas and much of North-east waited with bated breath for the Naga Peace Accord to be finally signed, NSCN-IM backtracked and began their demands for a Flag and Constitution, afresh. The NNPGs however were and still are ready to ink the Peace Accord at the earliest so as to put this long-standing matter to rest.

With Article 370 abrogated, there is no question of an independent Naga Flag. If at all the GoI deems fit, there could be one for cultural purposes only, but not surely for showcasing the sovereignty of the Nagas. That time has gone. Today much of the Naga inhabited areas and the youth therein have blended very seamlessly with the Indian nationhood. There is hardly anyone from the current generation who holds the worldview of Muivah. The Nagas of today want better job opportunities and socio-economic indices. The improvement in infrastructure and standards of living in Nagaland and the rest of North-East in the past decade is symbolic of how serious the country is about development of the North-East.

Similarly, is the outdated idea of an independent Constitution. Muivah’s demand that there can be no final settlement to the Naga issue without a flag and constitution may sound sacrilegious to most, particularly in the wake of the abolition of Articles 370 and 35A in J & K. Insofar as the Constitution (Yezhabo) is concerned, the devil lies in the details. The Yezhabo was first articulated in 1980 during the formation of the NSCN, and subsequently endorsed by NSCN-IM in 1988 and 1996. It speaks of a complicated body: an “Independent Sovereign Christian Socialist Democratic Republic". As per the Yezhabo, the Ato Kilonser (Prime Minister, Muivah) will be the Chief of a pan-Naga organisation that would get created. This not only contradicts Article 371 A but is also against the very tenets of the Naga society, where the control over the land and its resources is by the people. This will never be acceptable to Nagas in Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, or for that matter even in the hills of Manipur (barring Ukhrul district, to which Muivah belongs).

The keywords in the latest statement of Muivah are sovereignty, territory, flag and constitution. The issues of sovereignty and territory were long settled. In February 2012, Muivah’s statement was publicly announced by Self Styled Gen Khole Konyak in his speech by saying that Muivah told them that in view of international situation Naga independence was not possible, so also integration of Naga areas because of the policy of the Govt of India and Myanmar respectively (Portal, 2012). Furthermore, neither sovereignty nor integration appear in the two Official Agreements between the two groups of the underground.

So how real is the threat of a return to violent ways and why now? Today the only real threat in terms of numbers of cadres and availability of sophisticated weaponry is with the NSCN-IM. It is estimated that their cadres number anything between 2,000 to 2,500 and they are said to be in possession of about 3,000 weapons; all types. In case they take up arms again against the security forces, it shall be a serious security issue given the current disturbed situation in Manipur. The security forces are quite stretched. Seen rationally however, the threat may just be an empty one. The cadres have not fought the security forces for almost three decades. They have got accustomed to getting easy money by extortion for over about three decades. The cadres, at-least the young fighters, are very unlikely to pick up arms and return to the jungles given that they are now used to a relative comfortable and cushy life. But the most important of them all is the current depleted support or fear for the NSCN-IM in the minds of the people, something that prevailed a few years ago.

In all this, the voice of the common man gets muffled. The support for NSCN-IM, is waning in the Naga society. It has now come to a point where the Nagas of Nagaland feel that NSCN-IM under Muivah has held the Naga issue hostage for over 27 years and the time has come for the GoI to think well beyond the NSCN-IM demands in the larger interests of the society. The vicissitudes of the constantly changing demands of the NSCN-IM have shown that inking a final Peace Deal will be a laboured effort. The NNPGs are at their absolute wits end, wanting the final Agreement to be inked; an Agreement that speaks of Nagaland and Naga inhabited areas being under the Constitution and sovereignty of India. The only stumbling block is the NSCN-IM.

The timing for such a demand being made by Muivah is significant. Muivah and the NSCN-IM are aware that security forces now have their hands full in the North-East due to the ongoing unrest in Manipur. The situation in the immediate neighbourhoods of Myanmar and Bangladesh are causes for worry. The overarching influence of China in the region, particularly in Myanmar is also not lost on anyone. Traditionally, most of the internal security and insurgency related threats have had their actors operating out of Myanmar at the Chinese behest. With Trump’s re-election as President, many see improved US-India ties ahead, with a concurrent downward movement in the US-China relationship; gauging from the statements coming out from the President elect and seeing who his key appointees like the Secretary of State and the NSA are. This moment thus has been seen as opportune to threaten and make New Delhi feel unstable. The presence of the Alee Command of the NSCN-IM in Myanmar besides their deep and longstanding linkages with China are well known. It is necessary for New Delhi to therefore look more at what the needs of the common man in Nagaland are, which is, the overall socio-economic development in the State, rather than take much note of such pronouncements.

(The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation. The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere, and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct). (The paper does not necessarily represent the organisational stance... More >>