VIF News Digest: International Developments (US and Russia), 01-15 Jan 2020
USA
Trump administration doesn’t want India to degrade its defence capabilities: US official on CAATSA
Financial Express, January 9, 2020

The Trump administration does not want to degrade India’s defence capabilities, a senior US official has said, asserting that there will be a case-by-case analysis on where punitive measures under the CAATSA could be applied on countries buying significant military equipment from Russia. The US has said in the past it was working with countries, including India, to help them identify and avoid engaging in potentially sanctionable activities under the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

India and Russia signed the USD 5 billion S-400 air defence system deal in October 2018, after wide-ranging talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Responding to a question on implications of India going ahead with its decision to purchase S-400 missile defence system from Russia, the official said: “I know India has expressed valid concerns… they don’t want to have a sustainment line completely shut down… That’s the last thing we want to do with a significant partner. We don’t want to degrade their defence capabilities”. Click here to read...

India, US looking at an exclusive trade partnership: Shringla
Economic Times, January 9, 2020

India and the US are looking for an “exclusive partnership” that can give companies of both the nations preferential market access, India's outgoing Ambassador to the US Harsh Vardhan Shringla has said.

Shringla made the comments during his farewell reception on Tuesday organised by US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum or USISPF that was attended by members of the corporate world and representatives from the US Government.
“What we are really looking for is to provide the basis for an exclusive partnership in trade between our two countries that can give US companies preferential market access to India and Indian companies the preferential market access to the United States,” Shringla said.

The outgoing Ambassador, who would take up his new assignment as India's next foreign secretary later this month, said the two countries have been successful in bridging gaps through several rounds of trade talks. Click here to read...

Trump admin doesn't want to degrade India's defence capabilities: Official
Business Standard, January 9, 2020

The Trump administration does not want to degrade India's defence capabilities, a senior US official has said, asserting that there will be a case-by-case analysis on where punitive measures under the CAATSA could be applied on countries buying significant military equipment from Russia.

The US has said in the past it was working with countries, including India, to help them identify and avoid engaging in potentially sanctionable activities under the Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

India and Russia signed the $5 billion S-400 air defence system deal in October 2018, after wide-ranging talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Responding to a question on implications of India going ahead with its decision to purchase S-400 missile defence system from Russia, the official said: "I know India has expressed valid concerns... they don't want to have a sustainment line completely shut down... That's the last thing we want to do with a significant partner. We don't want to degrade their defence capabilities". Click here to read...

Industrial security pact represents historic progression between India, US: Lockheed VP Vivek Lall
Hindu Business Line, January 9, 2020

The Industrial Security Agreement (ISA) represents a historic progression between India and the US, and is set to facilitate close technology transfer with the Indian private industry, a top Lockheed official has said.

The agreement, which was signed during the December 2019 2+2 Dialogue, will also ease the process of doing business, including applying for licences to support mutual interests, said Vice President (Strategy and Business Development) at Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Vivek Lall.

In Washington DC this week to attend the farewell of outgoing Indian Ambassador to the US Harsh Vardhan Shringla, Lall will be heading to New Delhi to speak at the Raisina Dialogue.

ISA “represents a historic progression” between India and the US, he told PTI in an interview on Wednesday. “This agreement will facilitate close technology transfer with private industry in India and ease the process of doing business including applying for licenses to support mutual interests, Make in India, increased industrial and defence cooperation, and regional stability,” Lall said. Click here to read...

US Ambassador to Afghanistan steps down
msn.com 06 January 2020

The American ambassador to Afghanistan is stepping down from his position on Monday, after serving in the war-weary country's capital since December 2017, according to an official at the U.S. Department of State. The official said that John Bass's departure was long-planned and part of the normal rotation cycle, with American ambassadors typically serving in Kabul for only two years.
The State Department has named Ross Wilson as chargé d’affaires ad interim at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul until a new ambassador is confirmed. Wilson is expected to arrive in Kabul soon, according to the official.

Karen Decker, deputy chief of mission of the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, will serve as chargé d’affaires until Wilson's arrival, the official said. Click here to read...

Trump, in a raucous rally, takes on Democrats and touts Soleimani killing

Politico, 09 January 2020

President Donald Trump moved into re-election mode on Thursday with a boisterous rally here in which he blasted Democrats for trying to oust him just as he ordered the killing of two foreign fighters he called the biggest “monsters” on the planet.
Trump condemned House Democrats and Speaker Nancy Pelosi for voting in favour of two articles of impeachment last month but then holding them back from the Senate, which will be tasked with holding a trial to determine whether the president is removed from office.

“I did nothing wrong,” he said. “They don’t even know what the hell is going on. In fact, it’s so weak. She doesn’t want to put in the articles. It’s so weak. They’re so pathetic.”

Trump mocked Pelosi by saying she’s “not operating with a full deck,” and House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) as “you little pencil neck" and then added “He buys the smallest shirt collar you can get, and it’s loose!" He returned to his 2016 rival, Hillary Clinton, again dubbing her “crooked Hillary” and prompting the familiar “Lock her up!” chant from the crowd.

The president boasted of killing Iran’s top military commander, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, as well the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who died in a U.S. raid in northwestern Syria in October. Click here to read...

U.S. employment growth slows; labour market tightening
Reuters, January 10, 2020

U.S. job growth slowed in December after surging in the prior month, but the pace of hiring is enough to keep the longest economic expansion in history on track despite a deepening downturn in a manufacturing sector stung by trade disputes.

The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday also showed the jobless rate holding near a 50-year low of 3.5%. A broader measure of unemployment dropped to a record low last month, but wage gains ebbed. The mixed report will probably not change the Federal Reserve’s assessment that both the economy and monetary policy are in a “good place.”
“The report suggests a moderate pace of economic growth,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. “The Fed is comfortably on hold.”

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 145,000 jobs last month, with manufacturing shedding jobs after being boosted in November by the return to work of about 46,000 production workers at General Motors after a strike, the government’s survey of establishments showed. That was the smallest gain since May. Click here to read...

Russia
After Russia protests, MoD to take call on $2.5 bn deal
Economic Times, January 7, 2020

The defence ministry is set to take a call on a $2.5-billion purchase of new air defence systems for the Army after Russia strongly protested the selection of a South Korean manufacturer and sought a re-evaluation, claiming it was unfairly disqualified.

The high-powered Defence Acquisition Committee (DAC) is expected to look into the matter this month and decide on a way ahead for the critical purchase of self-propelled air defence gun missile system (SPAD-GMS), people aware of the development said.
The Indian Army wants five regiments of the guns that can be deployed with forward moving forces and can be quickly relocated on the basis of threat perception. Click here to read...

Russia announces ceasefire deal with Turkey in Syria's Idlib
Al Jazeera, January 10, 2020

Russia and Turkey have announced a ceasefire in Syria's Idlib province, paving the way for a pause in continuing government-led bombardment in the country's last rebel-held stronghold, while allowing the delivery of humanitarian aid.

"According to the agreements with the Turkish side, the ceasefire regime was introduced in the Idlib de-escalation zone starting from 14:00 Moscow time (11:00 GMT) on January 9, 2020," Russian Major-General Yury Borenkov was quoted as saying.

Turkey had asked Russia to establish a ceasefire in the region and it sent its delegation to Moscow in December to discuss the issue.
That month, the Syrian government and allied Russians launched a large-scale campaign against rebels in Idlib.

As the offensive intensified, in December alone, almost 300,000 people fled to safer areas towards Turkey from southern Idlib, according to the United Nations. Click here to read...

Germany's Merkel Heads to Moscow amid Heightened Global Tensions
Voice of America, 09 January 2020

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to travel to Moscow Saturday for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting will likely focus on the Iran crisis, with both Germany and Russia calling for de-escalation following the U.S. targeted killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and the retaliatory airstrikes by Tehran on Western military bases in Iraq.

The Ukraine conflict is also on the agenda, alongside the future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline running from Russia to Germany, amid strong opposition from the United States.

Putin will host Merkel shortly after returning from a trip to the Middle East this week. The Russian president made a rare trip to Damascus, Syria Tuesday, only his second visit since Russia intervened in 2015 to aid President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's civil war. Iran and its proxies have also provided significant support to Assad’s forces.

With its growing entanglement in Middle Eastern affairs, Russia is trying to avert the outbreak of a new conflict in Iran, says analyst Andrew Foxall of policy analyst group The Henry Jackson Society.“

Iran presents President Putin with the opportunity to present himself as a peacemaker rather than a ‘peace-breaker,’” Foxall says. “And in that sense his interests are very firmly aligned with Chancellor Merkel as they both believe in the JCPOA (the 2015 Iran nuclear deal); they both believe that discussion and debate are far more preferable than the conflict and confrontation that is currently taking place between Tehran and Washington.” Click here to read...

Multipolarity in Practice: Understanding Russia’s Engagement with Regional Institutions
Carnegie Paper, January 08, 2020

Over the past two decades, and especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the Kremlin has intensified its engagement with international institutions. This paper evaluates the drivers of this involvement, Russian views of three of these organizations, and Moscow’s success in achieving its objectives. It reaches the following principal conclusions:

Moscow’s approach to multilateralism was first articulated by former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov in the late 1990s. Russia’s engagement with multilateral institutions is guided by his long-standing vision of Russian foreign policy to shift the international system away from a U.S.-dominated unipolar order to a multipolar one. In this new configuration, Russia would serve as a key pole dominating the Eurasian landmass.

Primakov’s vision was prompted by the realization that Russia could not compete toe-to-toe with the United States or its allies in the international arena. Over the past five years, his views received a further shot in the arm from two developments: the punitive U.S. and Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump’s spurning of multilateralism in favour of more unilateral and nationalist policies and less global engagement. Click here to read...

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