May 01 - 15, 2017

International Terrorism

Situation in Iraq

The fight against Daesh in Iraq during the first fortnight of May witnessed certain developments indicating plans to advance in the northwestern part of Mosul as the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) wanted to clear the entire city before the holy month of Ramadan beginning later this month. However, the forces faced stiff resistance from Daesh militias who deployed vehicle-borne suicide bombers and snipers and “concealed amongst hundreds of thousands of civilians they are effectively holding hostage”. Simultaneously, inability of the terror outfit to hold onto whatever territory they still control in the city, is visible on the ground with Daesh continuing to lose manpower. The back-up provided by the US-led coalition through airstrikes and advisories on the ground, significantly contributed to ISF’s forward movement in this operation. According to an Iraqi analyst, Mosul will likely be liberated by late May or early June. Meanwhile, Daesh continued with their attempts to carry out suicide attacks in other areas, including Baghdad and Ramadi, during the second week of May. This indicated that this terror outfit still possesses capability to strike in other parts of the country.

While the liberation of Mosul seems only a matter of time, over all security situation in Iraq is unlikely to get significantly better. There are multiple challenges which the country will continue to face. First and foremost is the issue of rebuilding the country from the rubbles caused by the conflict. This remains a pertinent concern in Mosul and in those territories previously held by Daesh. As already mentioned in the earlier fortnightly reviews, sectarianism will remain even after Daesh is defeated militarily. It is being said that, “If each [political force] in Iraq wants to protect only its interest and the interests of its supporters, then we will lose and we will never regain a safe environment here”. Under these circumstances, the emerging politico-security development in Iraq could well turn out to be one where various regional and international powers, with vested interests, could be fighting Daesh or terrorism or against each other!

Daesh-related Activities in Afghanistan
Daesh-related incidents have continued to take place inside Afghanistan and Pakistan. The violent activities of Darsh have increased in this area at a time when it is facing military setbacks in Iraq and Syria. On 3 May, Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack against a military convoy near the US Consulate and NATO compound in Kabul. Eight civilians were killed and at least 25 others injured. This was reportedly one of the first attacks carried out by Daesh’s Afghanistan affiliate—Khorasan Province—against US military targets since 2015. Amaq, the outfit’s media agency, did not only praise the attack but also published photograph of the suicide bomber. However, in an obvious setback for the outfit, its leader in Afghanistan, Abdul Hasib, was killed in a raid in eastern Nangarhar Province in late April. He was known for his direct opposition to Ashraf Ghani-led government, and was believed to have ordered the attack on 8 March at the army hospital in Kabul, resulting in the death of 50 people. Given the fact that Daesh announced the creation of its affiliate in January 2015, it is still finding it difficult to penetrate deeper into the country. This could be largely due to the fact that Taliban still remains the most formidable terror outfit in the country and its supporters are not allowing this new group to rise. In other words, Daesh militias are facing competition from Taliban, and also the US military which is constantly targeting them. That said, given the unstable politico-security situation in the country, division and disaffection within the Afghan society, Daesh’s presence will continue to be felt, although nothing spectacular might happen in the immediate future.

Blast in Pakistan

Instances of Daesh claiming responsibility for some of the brazen attacks in Pakistan are also on the rise gradually. On 12 May, 25 people were killed and over 30 injured in a blast in southern Balochistan province. Abdul Ghafoor Haideri, Deputy Leader of Pakistan's Senate or Upper House of Parliament, who escaped with a minor injury was suspected to be the main target. While Daesh’s direct hand in this incident is yet to be established, there is also the possibility of local groups claiming such responsibility to enhance their impact in the country. Daesh has however talked highly of its “bomber with explosive belt”. Investigations are underway to verify whether it was a suicide attack or it was a “planted bomb”. Haideri is a prominent leader of one of Pakistan’s most powerful and influential religious political parties, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl), (JUIF). In the past, JUIF was targeted by Pakistani Taliban despite many of its leaders having acted as negotiators between the militants and the government. This incident has also been considered by a few as a threat to those leaders or parties which are part of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government. An analyst even mentioned that “ISIS targeted Haideri because of his party's close alliance with Afghanistan's Taliban”. This, in other words, highlights the tension and the differences that exist between Daesh supporters/sympathizer and Taliban, not only within Pakistan but also in Afghanistan.