March 16 -13, 2017
Defence
Indian Navy Decommissions TU 142 M
The Indian Navy recently decommissioned its TU 142M Long Range Maritime Patrol (LRMP) aircraft after nearly 30 years of service. The aircraft has been replaced by the recently acquire Boeing P 8I Poseidon acquired from the US. The P 8I is a potent platform which has a long range radar and a comprehensive ASW suite which is proving its worth in the Indian Navy.
The TU 142 M along with the IL 38 and the Seaking Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) helicopter formed the core of the Indian Navy’s airborne ASW capability. The P 8I has proved to be more than capable replacement for the TU 142M but the remainder of the inventory, especially the ‘Seakings’, have not been replaced. This has left a large gap in integral ASW capability of the Fleet. The proposal for acquisition of ASW helicopters has as yet not concretized and the future also does not look very bright. Considering the acquisition time periods under the DPP, it is unlikely that the required assets will fructify in the near future.
The IOR is witnessing a surge in submarine deployments, with the Chinese making numerous incursions into the region. Smaller countries like Bangladesh have also acquired submarines and others like Thailand are following suit. The Indian Navy has been a potent force for stability in this part of the world and gaps in its ASW capability are sure to make a dent in its efforts. The problem requires addressing on a war footing so that this operational gap is immediately filled without any long term ramifications. This will require a concerted effort from the Government to dovetail procurement procedures accordingly to meet operational requirements.
Army Chief Visits Nepal and Bangladesh
General Bipin Rawat, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) visited Nepal and Bangladesh from 28 March to 02 April 2017 on his first foreign visit after assuming office. He visited important military installations and met high ranking dignitaries including the Prime Minister, Defence Minister and the Chief of Army Staff of both the countries. During the visit to Nepal, he was conferred with the title of “Honorary General of the Nepalese Army” at a special investiture ceremony on 29 March 2017. “There has been decades old tradition of honoring the army chiefs of Nepal and India by each other with the title of Army General keeping with the traditional friendly ties between the two armies,” according to a statement issued by Nepal Army headquarters. In Bangladesh, the COAS met the President, the Prime Minister and the Chief of Army Staff of Bangladesh Army. These visits will help strengthen mutual trust with immediate neighbourhood particularly in the field of defence cooperation.
Military diplomacy, when dovetailed with the country’s foreign policy, is a powerful tool to further a country’s national interests. The visits of the COAS, especially to the immediate neighbourhood, send a strong signal of India’s commitment to the collective security of the region. The visit to Bangladesh is especially significant, coming as it does, just before the visit of the Bangladesh Prime Minister to India. Such visits, along with further strengthening of military ties, with nations in the immediate neighbourhood, will give teeth to the ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy of the government and ensure India’s centrality to the region. Notwithstanding such visits, increased military engagement, in terms of exercises and training against common threats will ensure regional stability and preclude destabilizing influences from gaining strength in our neighbourhood.
International Terrorism
Mosul Liberation Campaign
The coalition military campaign against Daesh in Iraq continued to gain momentum with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the coalition allies advancing towards central Mosul, during the latter half of the month. ISF, however, intentionally slowed down to regroup and prepare for the final assault into western Mosul and focused on Old City, which is densely populated. Local Iraqi sources claimed that roughly 200 civilians were killed in coalition airstrike on 17 March. This was refuted by the Coalition and, instead, it blamed the Daesh fighters for setting off their explosives-laden vehicles near the civilian residential areas and houses. International human rights organizations such as the Amnesty International severely criticized the coalition partners for not doing enough to avoid such casualties. Under such circumstances, the military campaign is likely to face more complications as Daesh is increasingly using civilians as human shields. The United Nations (UN) estimated approximately 400,000 people as still trapped inside the Old City. Meanwhile, a US defense official mentioned about deployment of 200 additional troops from the 82nd Airborne Division in Mosul to “provide additional advise and assist support” to Iraqi partners.
In a major blow to Daesh, its second-in-command, Ayad al Jumaili, who was Baghdadi’s deputy, was killed on 31 March in an airstrike near Syrian border. The outfit’s planning and policy activities are, as a result, likely to suffer some setbacks. Amidst these developments, the increasing role of Iranian proxies inside Iraq is becoming a matter of concern for the regional and international players (including the US) who do not see eye to eye with Iran on several issues.
London Terror Attack
The lone-wolf terror attack in the heart of central London on 22 March, which killed five (including the attacker) and injured more than 50 others, came at a time when threats from terrorists groups, such as Al-Qaeda and Daesh, are on the rise. While Daesh via its media agency – the Amaq - claimed responsibility for this attack, a direct link between 52 year old Briton Khalid Masood and the outfit is yet to be established. This ill-fated incident came as a grim reminder of the presence of highly radicalized and motivated individuals not only in the United Kingdom (UK) but also in few of the European Union (EU) countries, which in the recent months, have faced identical attacks. For example, similar incidents had already occurred in France, Turkey and Germany where the perpetrators used vehicles and knives to carry out attacks in crowded and sensitive locations.
The London-attack brought to the fore the growing threats from lone actors who either have some connections with terror outfits or act individually after getting influenced by the extremist ideologies. While UK has been concerned about the high possibility of Daesh-directed attacks inside the country, it has not ruled out threats from inspired individuals and foreign fighter returnees. There are reportedly more than 800 Britons who travelled to Iraq and Syria to fight in the ranks of Daesh and other similar groups operating in these two West Asian countries. Moreover, there is also a growing network of home-grown extremists in Europe, who are mainly influenced by this Sunni terror outfit. Although Daesh is currently waning—territorially, militarily and financially in Iraq and Syria - its pernicious ideology is finding resonance with several like-minded local outfits and individuals. Most importantly, copying of its modus operandi for carrying out attacks is increasingly noticeable as radicalized individuals in the recent times used easily available tools as improvised weapons. As mentioned by a UK-based media agency, “This [London-attack] is the new, low-tech face of modern terrorism”. This sort of attack, even if it was low-key in intensity, is clearly going to be a trend that will be witnessed by the international community and it will only add to the workload of the security and law enforcement agencies.
BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs Discuss Security Challenges
The first meeting of National Security Chiefs of Bay of the ‘Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation’ (BIMSTEC) member states was hosted by India on March 21, 2017. This was in pursuance to the decisions taken at the BIMSTEC Leaders’ Retreat held in Goa, on 16 October 2016. The Meeting noted that BIMSTEC member States face common security challenges and underlined the necessity of addressing traditional and non-traditional security challenges to harness economic prosperity and human security in the region. The meeting underscored the importance of recognizing the Bay of Bengal as common security space and agreed to work out collective strategies for common responses.
Given that terrorism continues to remain the single most significant threat to peace and stability in the Bay of Bengal region, the meeting recognised the need for urgent measures to counter and prevent the spread of terrorism, violent extremism and radicalization. It decided to take concrete measures to enhance cooperation and coordination among their law enforcement, intelligence and security organisations and enhance capacity building. BIMSTEC member States were also invited for a Conference on Counter Radicalisation to be hosted by India, most likely in October 2017. The Meeting reviewed the progress made in BIMSTEC Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crimes and its Sub-Groups and decided that BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs/Advisers will oversee implementation of their work. The Meeting decided to establish a Track 1.5 BIMSTEC Security Dialogue Forum to promote and encourage security dialogue among BIMSTEC strategic community.
Internal Security
Fresh wave of violence in Kashmir
The last week of March 2017 witnessed a fresh upsurge of violence in Kashmir with frequent encounters between the law enforcement agencies and terrorists. A number of militants, mostly belonging to Hizbul Mujahideen were killed in encounters. As was witnessed before the Surgical Strike late last year, each incident of encounter was sought to be disrupted by civilian stone-pelting agitators. From the past one month, there has been a surge in the number of encounters, especially in south Kashmir where many local youths have joined the militant ranks after the killing of Hizbul Mujahedeen commander, Burhan Wani last July. As per official figures more than 90 youths have turned to militancy in the Valley after the killing of Wani. The majority of them are in south Kashmir’s four districts. Thirty militants, mostly locals and seven security forces personnel have been killed in different encounters. These incidents suggest a ‘’hot summer’’ in the coming months, especially when the snow melts and fresh infiltrations start across the Line of Control (LoC).
Ajmer Blast Case
The National Investigating agency (NIA) Special Court on March 22, 2017 pronounced the verdict in 2007 Ajmer Blast case in which the famous shrine of Sufi saint Khawaja Moinuddin Chisti was, on October 11, 2007, during the month of Ramzan, rocked by blasts killing three and injuring 17 people. The case was handed over to ATS Rajasthan and was later transferred to the NIA. The 500-page judgement based on the testimonials of 149 witnesses and 451 documents, convicted Bhavesh Patel, Devendra Gupta and Sunil Joshi but acquitted Swami Aseemanand. The Special Court awarded Devendra Gupta and Bhavesh Patel life imprisonment with Fine of Rs 1, 00,000/ - each
33 Maoists Surrender in Bastar District, Chattisgarh
Thirty three naxals, including four women, on March 31, 2017, surrendered at Jagdalpur, Bastar. Twenty-five of them were active in Kanker Valley under Darbha division of south Bastar, which had witnessed several deadly Naxal attacks in the past, while the remaining eight were working in Barsoor area. Four of the ultras were carrying reward of Rs 1 lakh each on their heads and were wanted in many cases due to their involvement in IED blasts. This is considered to be the major surrender after the massive surrender of 700 Naxals during the demonitisation phase from November 08, 2017 till December 31, 2016. This is also considered to be the major success of Chhattisgarh police and their drive against Maoists in Chhattisgarh. While surrendering before the Inspector General of Police, Bastar the Naxals expressed disillusionment with the hollow ideology of the movement which prompted them to leave the path of violence and join the mainstream.
