On January 13, 2025, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) organised an interaction with a visiting scholar Dr. Miemie Winn Byrd of Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. The interaction was to obtain a brief on the current situation in Myanmar and its implications. Dr. Byrd researches, teaches, and publishes on the various arrays, for instance on; U.S.-Myanmar (Burma) relations; security dynamics in Southeast Asia; economics and security linkages; rising inequality and its implication on security; etc. The interaction explored the geopolitical and strategic dimensions of the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, highlighting its implications for regional and global stakeholders. The discussion was chaired by Brig Vinod Anand, Senior Fellow & Editor at VIF, and it was attended by prominent scholars on the region.

Salient Points of the Discussion

• Geopolitical Importance of Myanmar

Myanmar's location at the crossroads of Southeast Asia and South Asia makes it a pivotal actor in regional geopolitics. It provides direct access to the Indian Ocean, critical for China's strategic initiatives like the "Malacca Dilemma." Myanmar is also a significant source of rare earth minerals, essential for high-tech industries, with most exports supporting China's supply chain.

• Impact of the Internal Conflict

The resistance against the military junta has gained momentum, driven by unprecedented defection levels, civil disobedience, and strong public support.
The military regime is facing severe setbacks, including loss of control over key regions, combat fatigue, and declining recruitment rates.
Key ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People's Defence Forces (PDFs) are united in their opposition, backed by international and diaspora support.

• Reasons for Success of Resistance Forces

Various research sources have indicated that the conflicts in the Myanmar, between resistance forces and Myanmar Junta, have increased significantly affecting around 63 percent of townships.

The military regime has lost control over key regions, faces internal dissent, and struggles with recruitment and morale. Resistance movements have gained ground, leveraging widespread civilian and international support.

Factors contributing to resistance success include;

• High levels of defections from security forces.
• Strong international diaspora support.
• Rising corruption within the Military Junta.
• Collaboration among Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and pro-democracy groups.
• Prominent role played by Women in the resistance, constituting 65% of the resistance.
• Groups like the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), and others support resistance efforts. Cooperation among these groups has strengthened the anti-junta movement.
• China’s Role and Action

China has leveraged Myanmar’s instability to expand its influence, focusing on controlling economic and strategic interests.

China supports the junta to safeguard its strategic interests but faces criticism for its involvement in Myanmar's internal conflict. China has also taken measures to suppress pro-democracy forces and maintain its geopolitical foothold.

• Regional and Global Challenges

Myanmar’s conflict has spurred regional security concerns, including refugee flows, human trafficking, and arms and drug smuggling.
Neighbouring countries like India and Bangladesh face direct implications for security and economic projects, such as India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.

• Opportunities for Stakeholders

For India, leveraging Myanmar's resistance movement offers potential for strategic and economic engagement while countering Chinese influence.
The presentation emphasized the role of regional players in shaping Myanmar’s democratic future and addressing humanitarian challenges.

• Recommendations and Observations

The importance of a coordinated approach to support Myanmar’s democratic transition was underscored. She highlighted the need for sustained international pressure, strategic dialogue among regional actors, and humanitarian assistance to mitigate the broader impacts of the conflict.

Myanmar’s internal conflict is a critical flashpoint with far-reaching implications. A nuanced understanding and proactive engagement from global and regional stakeholders will be essential to address the ongoing crisis and foster long-term stability in the Indo-Pacific region.