The year 2024 is shaping up to be a critical juncture for Russia and Central Asia, characterized by significant geopolitical upheavals, economic volatility, and shifting social dynamics. These changes are not merely adjustments; they are fundamentally altering the very foundation of the region, exposing vulnerabilities and presenting both urgent challenges and precarious opportunities. While Russia struggles to manage its growing dissonance due to international conflicts and escalating internal security threats, Central Asia is becoming increasingly pivotal. Yet, it risks falling victim to external pressures and dependency. This article critically examines these regions' major developments and threats, highlighting the dire implications of inaction and superficial responses. In light of these complexities, a few scenarios and recommendations will be proposed for the upcoming year to navigate this turbulent landscape effectively.

Russia in 2024: Navigating Challenges and Reinforcing Influence

In March 2024, Vladimir Putin secured an overwhelming 88% of the vote, beginning his fifth presidential term. While the results reaffirmed his dominance, criticisms of transparency and limited opposition raised questions about the legitimacy of the electoral process. As Putin’s new term unfolds, the focus remains on domestic stability, addressing economic challenges, and navigating strained international relations.

Russia’s continued military operations in Ukraine have tested its resources and international standing. Heightened sanctions from the West have exacerbated economic pressures, compelling Russia to seek alliances with nations sharing strategic interests. Diplomatic moves, including fostering relationships with BRICS nations, underscore efforts to counteract Western isolation. However, the conflict’s trajectory remains uncertain, particularly with geopolitical shifts such as Trump’s re-election in the U.S. These dynamics have further complicated the prospects of resolution.

A series of terrorist attacks in Moscow in 2024, including a major bombing on June 15, highlighted vulnerabilities in urban security. These events prompted the government to strengthen surveillance and emergency protocols, fostering public resilience. Discussions around addressing radicalization, enhancing community engagement, and improving intelligence-sharing mechanisms have gained momentum, aiming for long-term security enhancements.

The participation of Central Asian migrants in these attacks has created significant challenges for labour migration from Central Asia to Russia. As a result, the Russian government has introduced various restrictions targeting these migrants, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and tension. In light of these developments, Russia is actively considering alternative sources of labour, looking toward countries like India and North Korea as potential replacements for Central Asian workers. This shift not only impacts the migrants themselves but also the broader dynamics of labour migration in the region.

On the regional and multilateral front, the BRICS’ Kazan Summit was a pivotal moment for Russia, showcasing its ability to maintain international relevance. Discussions centred on reducing reliance on Western markets and promoting trade mechanisms like non-dollar transactions. Furthermore, Putin’s visits to Azerbaijan, Mongolia, and Central Asia reinforced Russia’s commitment to sustaining influence in its traditional sphere. These efforts underline a broader strategy to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and diversify economic partnerships.

In the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, the relationship between India and Russia has significantly strengthened. This development can be attributed to various factors, including mutual political interests, economic cooperation, and a shared perspective on global issues. Both nations have sought to deepen their strategic partnership, leading to increased collaboration in defence, trade, and energy sectors, as well as a commitment to support each other on international platforms. This enhanced alliance reflects a recognition of the importance of maintaining strong ties in the face of shifting geopolitical dynamics. India and Russia continued their robust engagement in 2024, focusing on defence, energy, and technology collaborations. Bilateral trade reached USD 66 billion, with ambitious goals to hit USD 100 billion by 2030. However, Russia’s closeness with China poses strategic dilemmas for India, emphasizing the need for a delicate balance in foreign policy. Continued dialogues and efforts to diversify areas of cooperation remain essential to sustaining this historic partnership.

Central Asia in 2024: Resilience Amid Shifting Geopolitics

Central Asia, a region marked by its crucial geostrategic importance and a complex tapestry of geopolitical rivalries, has undergone remarkable transformations in shaping its own destiny. With its rich history and diverse cultures, the region is not only a crossroads of trade but also has been a battleground for influence among major global powers. As the countries within this vibrant region strive for autonomy and development, they are increasingly asserting their agency in the face of external pressures and redefining their identities in a rapidly changing world. In 2024, the region has made significant strides toward sustainability, driven by investments in renewable energy and nuclear power. Uzbekistan’s and Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy projects highlight a commitment to reducing carbon emissions and diversifying energy sources. Hydropower remains a staple in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, reflecting the region’s growing focus on eco-friendly practices. However, challenges such as public skepticism and high implementation costs must be addressed to ensure the success of these initiatives.

In 2024, Central Asia witnessed a sustained and vigorous resurgence of positive regionalism. This movement was characterized by increased cooperation among the Central Asian countries, fostering economic partnerships, cultural exchanges, and diplomatic initiatives. These countries collaborated to tackle common challenges, enhance connectivity, and promote stability and development, reflecting a growing sense of regional unity that is essential to face current geopolitical challenges.

The 6th Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State in Astana showcased that progress in regional cooperation. The Central Asia – 2040 Concept adopted in this meeting emphasizes economic integration, shared security frameworks, and infrastructural connectivity. While trade within the region has grown by 80% in five years, challenges like high cargo costs persist. Key initiatives, such as the Trans-Caspian Transport Route, aim to address these bottlenecks. Additionally, improved border management and streamlined customs procedures are critical to unlocking the region’s full economic potential.

Central Asia’s reserves of natural resources and strategic position has attracted the interest of global powers, including Russia, China, and Western nations. While Russia seeks to maintain its historical influence, its capacity is constrained by sanctions and economic strain. Meanwhile, China’s infrastructure investments, though significant, raise concerns over debt diplomacy. The West’s engagement has shifted toward green energy and critical minerals, aligning with regional aspirations for diversification. Turkey’s growing influence, leveraging cultural and historical ties, adds another layer of complexity to the region’s evolving dynamics.

Despite promising progress in the last few years, India’s engagement with Central Asia has stagnated in 2024. Limited progress on initiatives like the Chabahar Port and North-South Transport Corridor highlights persistent connectivity challenges. Trade remains below potential, underscoring the need for renewed focus and investment in infrastructure. Proactive engagement, including regular dialogues and enhanced economic cooperation, is essential to reviving momentum in this crucial relationship.

Prognosis and Policy Recommendations

For Russia

1. Prioritize ending the Ukraine conflict to alleviate economic and diplomatic pressures.
2. Diversify economic partnerships to reduce dependency on China and Western markets.
3. Strengthen regional alliances through BRICS and other multilateral frameworks.
4. Enhance domestic security measures to address terrorism and radicalization.

For Central Asia

1. Foster regional economic integration through initiatives like a unified economic union.
2. Expand partnerships beyond Russia and China, focusing on the GCC, EU, and emerging economies.
3. Accelerate green energy investments and enhance regional energy cooperation.
4. Improve connectivity infrastructure, particularly the North-South Corridor and Trans-Caspian routes.
5. Address governance and political stability to sustain long-term growth.
6. Leverage the region’s unique resources and strengths for collaborative development.

For India

1. Reassess its Eurasian policy to revitalize ties with Central Asia.
2. Invest in critical infrastructure projects, including the Chabahar Port.
3. Diversify trade baskets to unlock economic potential.
4. Enhance cultural and educational exchanges to deepen people-to-people ties.
5. Establish dedicated mechanisms for addressing connectivity and logistical
   barriers.

Conclusion

The trajectories of Eurasia region in 2024 reflect resilience amid adversity and ambition amid constraints. While Russia grapples with internal and external challenges, Central Asia’s proactive diplomacy and economic initiatives underscore its growing agency. For India, the evolving dynamics present opportunities and challenges, necessitating strategic recalibration to maintain relevance in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. Continued collaboration, innovative solutions, and adaptive strategies will be critical to shaping a stable and prosperous future for these regions.

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