West Asia: The Smoldering Cauldron

Alfred Thayer Mahan- a US naval officer is credited to have named the region as West Asia in 1905- which was earlier known as part of Middle East (Middle East was a term coined by the British who divided the world as per the distance from Great Britain). ^[1], ^[2] The region has been in constant turmoil since the birth of Islam in the beginning of seventh century-when erstwhile Persia was sought to be converted to Islam.^[3], ^[4] Then came the great game (1813-1907) when Tsarist Russia commenced southward expansion. ^[5] This was followed by the struggle between the Ottoman Empire and the Western powers. Post WWII the US took over from the UK. The period following the ‘so-called’ World War II (less than ten countries actually fought WWII) has been more turbulent in this region.

Over time the embers of violence cooled down in most of this region. But then Hamas struck Israel on 7 October 2023. The region went up in gradually widening flames. The Iran-Israel conflagration that we see today belongs to this series of conflicts. Is this conflict a precursor to comparative stability and peace in West Asia? This would appear to be an outlandish question given the popular discourse on the subject. But probability zero is as rare as probability one.

If we are looking for signs of future peace and stability in West Asia as a fall out of the current hyperbole then the search will have to be beyond the battle fields. Non military factors need to be analysed. First, the historical evolution leading to theological hardlines. Second, the second phase of revolution where people desire to adopt to modern international behaviour including global economic norms. The events on the battlefields at best can be catalyst for peace.

Relevant Historical Background

It was in the beginning of seventh century that Iran (erstwhile Persia) came under the Islamic influence. The Zoroastrians who inhabited Persia struggled against the Islamisation for a long time to preserve their ethnic identity. However, Persia’s conversion to Islamic nation accelerated during the last three centuries. Though even today fifteen to twenty thousand Zoroastrians live in Iran. Traditionally Persia under the Zoroastrians was a comparatively modern, rich and fiercely free country. Elements of these traits are manifested in adaption of Persian language by the Arabs as an elitist language, Iran’s wars against the erstwhile USSR (when the USSR and Iran shared common borders) to protect their faith against the (religion free) communist expansion, throwing out the Pahlavi dynasty (1925 In to 1979) are seen as an extension of the US influence in an indigenous Islamic revolution.

There have been times when Iran and Israel were friends. Iran did procure technologies and weapon systems from Israel prior to the 1979 Islamic revolution. This was the time when Iran did not join the Arab world to fight Israel. In-fact Iran was quite contented that the Arab world was busy with Israel. This was also the period when Iran used friendship with Israel to get closer to the US.^[6] However, post 1979 Iran got closer to the old foe Russia to counter the US and Israel. Besides the Islamic Revolution leadership of Iran aspired to take up leadership role in destroying Israel. Hezbollah was raised in Lebanon in 1982. In the context of our discussion the above historical background suggests:

• Iran is proud of its own moorings and detests outside hegemony.
• Islamisation of Persia was very difficult and took a long time compared to some other regions in the Arab world.
• The people yearn for an egalitarian way of life beyond dogma and fanaticism.
• In the regional geo politics- especially after WWII, Iran has shown a tendency to play leader of Islamic nations- as a resistance to the US hegemony, especially in the Persian Gulf Region. It is this ambition that has made them bitter enemy of their old friend Israel.
• Iran has also shown tendency to make radical changes in its stand on international relations.

The People and the Leaders

The Iranian population of little over ninety million is largely (77%) urbanised. The median age being 23.4 years with almost equal male and female population. More than half of Iranians are graduates and hence have modern aspirations. ^[7], ^[8], ^[9], ^[10] With a per capita income of $4663 (nominal value) GDP growth rates of 4.2 % in 2024 dampened by 44% inflation in the same year the future of these aspirational youth is bleak. Even if we consider the per capita GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Terms Iran per capita GDP dipped from $18981 in 2011 to $17921 in 2023. Compare this with Israel where the per capita GDP in PPP terms jumped from $31161 in 2011 to $53434 in 2023. While Israel’s GDP growth is almost stagnant it has low rates of inflation at 3.6% in 2024. ^[11] Though people in both these countries will have to face economic constraints the Iranians are likely to be less resilient.

Besides the economic strain Iran has substantial ethnic diversity. Though more than half the population is Persian there are sizable chunks of Baloch and Kurds. Both these groups have shown separatist tendencies and have even launched armed struggle. While bulk of Iranians are Shi’i the Baloch (2%) and the Kurds (10%) are Sunnis. Even the Arab population of around 2% is not very friendly with the majority Persian population. There have been protests and even armed conflicts among the ethnic groups primarily for better share of national resources. Though Persian is the national language almost 40% of Iranian population does not have Persian as their mother tongue. Incidentally, Iran also has miniscule percentage of Christians, Jews and Zoroastrians. Over all the Iranian demography would be better served by a non theological and pluralist regime. The current Iranian leadership is authoritarian governed by theocracy preached in Islamic scriptures. ^[12], ^[13], ^[14] This analysis brings out the following: -

• Iran has adequate ethnic diversity that would make it more prone to adopt a pluralist approach of governance and social behaviour.
• The political leadership is under stress to address socio economic aspirations of people.
• Iran is also not in a position to export its model of civilisation or governance to its neighbour and the Arab states. Countries like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and even Egypt are more in synch with the international norms.

Iran-Israel War as a Catalyst of Peace in West Asia

In 1982 when Israel raided southern Lebanon, Ayatollah Khamenei’s Iran turned actively hostile towards Israel. Hezbollah grew in strength and audacity. The period from 1982 to 7 October 2023 has been a long war of attrition fought between the Iranian proxies and Israel. Gideon Avidor -an Israeli officer who saw active service in 1967, 1973 and 1982 wars that Israel fought with its adversaries, called the Iran-sponsored proxy wars as conflict in the ‘virtual space’ where narrative building, social media and perception management play major roles. Gideon Avidor and another Israeli scholar Russel Glen felt that it was almost impossible for Israel to win this war the way they won the conventional wars. ^[15] Thus, on 7th October 2023 the Israeli leadership appears to have decided to remove the ‘virtual’ part of the conflict, domination of woke in narrative building, sermons from deep states and commenced military operations in manners that IDF is familiar with. The thin veneer that had hidden Iran behind Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi was suddenly lifted. Hezbollah and Hamas are marginalised and Israel is in direct confrontation with Iran in a conventional war where the IDF has an unblemished record of pulling spectacular victories, no matter which Arab state or how many of them are on the opposite side and also whose weapons these Arab states are using in the conflict. Iran though ranked higher in terms of military power at rank 14 compared to rank 17 of Israel (by global power index) ^[16] is no match to Israel when it comes to performance on the conventional battlefields especially because the conflict will be primarily between the two air forces and the missile forces with major support of cyber war and Intelligence based warfare. Though Iran has a reasonable modern air force with Mig 29, Su 25 and some combat air craft of US origin, it lacks the technical support to keep the fleet fully functional. On the other hand, the Israeli Air Force is not only superior in numbers and technology it is also supported by top class air warriors and globally competent technology team. ^[17] The Mossad is known to have captured, interrogated and punished the elite troops of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps troops in Tehran and released the footages of the trials as also confessions. ^[18] If the war prolongs and Iran suffers economic losses the way it did on 27 October 2024 its resilience in war with Israel will be stressed. Because the damaged targets included military oil refinery and radar site. ^[19] Significantly, none of the 100 odd combat air crafts employed by Israel in this offensive was damaged or even challenged. Iran has not retaliated so far.

As regards apprehension about use of nuclear warheads, Israel does not have to use this option to achieve their military objective. Iran, even if they have some nascent capability will be pressing self destruct button if they chose to venture into nuclear conflict. All such discussions are academic. ^[20]

Conclusion

For any long-term peace it must be win-win for both parties. As per IDF military doctrine Israel is fighting for its survival in the region. Iran on the other hand has been nursing the ambition of regional leadership of Islamic nations and destruction of Israel. Iran needs to reconcile on some of its larger-than life ambitions. First, the desire to export its model of Islamic governance. Second is its anti-Israel nuclear programme. Third, it needs to give up leadership of ‘destroy Israel’ lobby. It is far easier for Iran to do all these because of two very important reasons. It is in synch with the well being of its people. Also, Iran has a long history of compromising on some of the lofty but unachievable political goals. As regards Israel removal of threat to its existence is good enough to strike a win-win deal. Israel need not destroy Iran or even damage it beyond a point to achieve this aim.

End Notes

^[1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/45072929#
^[2] https://cirs.qatar.georgetown.edu/research/research-initiatives/re-emerging-west-asia/background-and-scope-project/
^[3] https://www.britannica.com/place/Iran/The-Abbasid-caliphate-750-821
^[4] https://iranicaonline.org/articles/conversion-ii
^[5] Saraswat Deepika Between Survival and Status; The Counter Hegemonic Geopolitics of Iran, Macmillan Publishers India Pvt limited Chennai (2022) ISBN 9789354550706
^[6] https://www.israel21c.org/how-iran-became-israels-greatest-foe/
^[7] https://asiasociety.org/education/islamic-iran
^[8] https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/iran-demographics/
^[9] https://iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040-project/publications/irans-population-dynamics-and-demographic-window-opportunity
^[10] https://www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data/IRN
^[11] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=IR-IN-IL
^[12] https://www.britannica.com/place/Iran/Settlement-patterns
^[13] https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147681
^[14] https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/09/iran-intensifying-efforts-repress-women-and-girls-second-anniversary-nation
^[15] Gideon Avidor and Russell Fuller, Information and
Warfare: The Israeli Case https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Information-and-Warfare%3A-The-Israeli-Case-Avidor-Glenn/e7b18125b65c011d218027697a71181a4f02288a?p2df
^[16] https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
^[17] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/2/iran-and-israel-what-are-their-attack-and-defence-capabilities
^[18] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/mossad-iran-tsurkov-spies-nuclear-program/
^[19] https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826126
^[20] Khera Kishore Kumar, Jha UC Nuclear-Weapons Untangling the Societal Enigma Vij Book India Pvt Limited New Delhi (2022) ISBN 9789390917198

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