The Russia-Ukraine war has cast a deep shadow over Russia-Japan relations. The immediate prospects for improvement look bleak.

Japan imposed sanctions on Russia a day after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Russia reacted by including Japan in a list of what it called ‘unfriendly’ countries.

Earlier, Japan had sanctioned Russia after the latter annexed Crimea. But the two countries continued to maintain a dialogue. There was a significant improvement in bilateral relations. Putin and Abe met each other regularly. In 2018, they agreed to start negotiations on the normalisation of relations and held several rounds of discussions on a peace treaty. Russia and Japanese defence and foreign affairs ministers met in a 2 plus 2 format a few times. However, the relationship nosedived following the 2022 Russian military operations in Ukraine. The talks on a prospective peace treaty were discontinued by Russia. This was a serious setback to bilateral relations.

At the heart of bilateral relations is the dispute over the Kuril Islands which have been in Russia’s possession since the end of the Second World War but are claimed by Japan. Japan’s position is that historically the islands belonged to Japan and that Russia had annexed them during the Second World War in which Japan was defeated. In contrast, Russia holds that “the southern Kuril Islands belong to the Russian Federation legally as of the end of WWII, and Russian sovereignty over them is indisputable”. The gulf between the respective positions is too wide to be bridged easily. It would require a big compromise on both sides, which is not easy.

In 2018, Russia and Japan had agreed to ‘accelerate’ the discussions on a peace treaty based on the joint Soviet-Japan Declaration of 1956. The Soviet Union had not signed the Peace Treaty with Japan in 1951. The two countries signed a declaration in 1956 that formally ended the war, established diplomatic relations and provided for discussions on a formal peace treaty. The peace treaty has still not been signed Several rounds of discussions have been held. The discussions were broken off by Russia after Japan imposed sanctions it on 25th February 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The peace treaty would have led to an agreed settlement of this contentious issue that has bedevilled the bilateral relations for almost seven decades. Pending a settlement, the two sides agreed to develop the disputed islands jointly. Russia had relaxed regulations for the Japanese wishing to visit the islands. These arrangements have now been halted.

The geopolitical scene in the Indo-Pacific region has undergone a massive change in the last few years. US-China geostrategic rivalry has deepened and playing out in the Pacific region. Russia and China have come together to oppose the US and its allies in the region. Russia has expressed concerns about Japan’s drive to increase its defence budget and enhance its military capabilities. It has reacted sharply to the amendments carried out in Japan to its national security strategy, defence strategy and enhanced military budgets. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson deplored that Japan was “returning to unlimited militarization, which will inevitably provoke new security challenges and exacerbate tensions in the Asia-Pacific region”.

The situation in the Indo-Pacific region is fraught. Russia holds that Japan is willingly becoming a part of the US strategy to contain China and Russia in the Asia Pacific. It takes a highly negative view of “military-political alliances such as US-Japan, US-Japan-Republic of Korea, US-Japan-Australia, AUKUS (US-UK-Australia), which includes a nuclear component, the US-Japan-Philippines Troika, and the Indo-Pacific Quartet (Japan-Republic of Korea-Australia-New Zealand)”.

It says that Japan is becoming a part of the US global missile defence strategy. It apprehends that US intermediate and short-range missiles may be placed in Japan. It sees these measures as impacting Russia;’ security. It holds that under US pressure, NATO is expanding its influence in the region and creating divisions. Russia has warned that it reserves the right to take ‘countermeasures’.

Russia has taken several steps to react to the changes it perceives as threatening its security. In September 2024, it undertook the "Ocean-2024" exercise, in Pacific and Arctic waters, the Mediterranean Sea, the Caspian Sea and the Baltic Sea, in which, according to Russian media “more than 400 combat ships, submarines and support vessels” participated. China also participated in these exercises. Its relations with North Korea have been taken to an entirely new level. There are reports that nearly 10,000 North Korean troops are fighting against Ukraine in Russia.

Japan, the US and South Korea have done joint exercises, Freedom Edge, in the Indo-Pacific region. Russia has objected to these exercises. The second iteration of the trilateral multi-domain exercise was held in November 2024. Japan and South Korea are deeply concerned about the North Korean troops being deployed in Russia against Ukraine. It joined Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States and the High Representative of the European Union to condemn the Russian action as a breach of international law and the UN Charter. The joint statement (5 November 2024) said that the move would “mark a dangerous expansion of the conflict, with serious consequences for European and Indo-Pacific peace and security”. The statement condemned “in the strongest possible terms the increasing military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia, including the DPRK’s export and Russia’s unlawful procurement of DPRK ballistic missiles in breach of multiple UN Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs)”

Trump’s re-election as the president of the United States for the second term has created fresh uncertainties globally and also in the Indo-Pacific region. While he is committed to dealing with a rising China, he has also promised to help end the Russia-Ukraine War. The senior cabinet members announced so far are China hawks. It was during his time that the Quad was revived. But it was Trump who had taken the initiative to meet the North Korean leader and made an attempt to normalise relations with that country. It remains to be seen how the US Indo-Pacific Policy would change under Trump 2.0. Uncertainties are galore and any guess made at this stage would be hasty.

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