Introduction

On September 21 this year Sri Lanka held its first presidential election after the Aragalaya protests amid significant political and economic challenges, marking a crucial moment in the country’s journey toward economic recovery and political stability. This election which resulted in the victory of Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People's Party (NPP) —a socialist political alliance— took place against the backdrop of a severe economic crisis that saw a strong voter turnout reflecting the people’s desire for change and effective governance. Dissanayake won the election driven by widespread public frustration with Sri Lanka’s traditional political elite, as many called for change and an end to political corruption. In Sri Lanka's presidential election history, this was the first direct election in which no candidate received more than 50 percent of the total votes, leading to a second round of counting to determine the second-preference votes for the two frontrunners—Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Finally, Dissanayake secured 42.3 percent of the votes, while his closest rival, Premadasa, garnered 32.8 percent. Former/incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe was pushed into the third place with 17.3 percent of votes.

Sri Lanka’s 2024 Parliamentary Election

Shortly after taking office, the new president dissolved the parliament on 24 September to pave the way for a snap general election. It was been decided that the parliamentary polls to elect 225 Members of the Sri Lankan Parliament will be held on November 14. It was expected that, with his NPP coalition holding just three of the 225 seats in the then existing parliament, the President would dissolve the legislature to seek a fresh mandate for his policies. However, if the NPP does not secure an outright victory, it will be forced to negotiate with other parties whom the former accuses of representing the old political establishment. Minister Vijitha Herath of the NPP had recently stated that while the party is confident of securing a majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections, it is also open to forming a national unity government with lawmakers from the Tamil and Muslim communities to promote national unity. In recent campaign speeches for his parliamentary candidates, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake expressed confidence that the NPP will secure a two-thirds majority in the forthcoming parliamentary elections and emphasized that it is time for a strong, decisive and powerful government. On the other hand, the opposition SJB argues that the NPP's popularity has declined considerably since the presidential election, while public support for the SJB has increased significantly.
Experts are of the view that, in this kind of a scenario, under the country’s French-style constitution, President Dissanayake who lacks ties to a politically influential family, may be required to share power with an opposition figure as the prime minister. In a way, the parliamentary vote will be crucial in assessing Dissanayake's prospects for success, as well as the NPP's ability to solidify its rise from an unlikely contender to the country's leading party.
It is reported that the Election Commission of Sri Lanka will establish over 13,000 polling stations across 22 electoral districts, with 8,821 candidates competing in the election. In addition, the Sri Lankan Election Commission has announced that it has invited observers from eight countries to oversee the upcoming parliamentary election. International election observation groups, including the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL), The Forum of the Election Management Bodies of South Asia (FEMBoSA), and the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) have already confirmed their participation in monitoring the national poll.

The Role of the IMF and Economic Measures in Sri Lanka's Election Debate

Mr. Dissanayake won the Presidential election on a wave of populism, tapping into middle-class frustration with corruption and the harsh economic terms imposed by multilateral financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, however, credited himself for successfully negotiating the IMF bailout that helped lift Sri Lanka's economy out of bankruptcy two years ago. But unfortunately, he failed to respond to the broader call for political reform in the island nation which was another demand of the Aragalaya protesters. While addressing a public meeting ahead of the parliamentary election, former Minister Manusha Nanayakara of the United National Party (UNP) stated that if Ranil Wickremesinghe was re-elected as the President this time, Sri Lanka would have already received the third loan instalment from the IMF, contributing to the country’s economic recovery. Nevertheless, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake expressed optimism that Sri Lanka will receive the third tranche of the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) by the end of January or in early February next year. Former Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne echoed the same sentiment by praising Wickremesinghe for his contribution to the Sri Lankan economy. He further asserted that only former President Ranil Wickremesinghe possesses the ability to review and restore the country's fragile economy, and that no other leader in the country is capable of doing the same. It is important to note that resentment over the IMF bailout loan and stringent economic measures propelled Dissanayake into office, yet, the latter has committed to renegotiating, rather than dismantling, those policies.

Sri Lanka’s Political Landscape Shifts as Traditional Figures Step Back

However, the upcoming national election is expected to mark a shift away from Sri Lanka’s traditional political parties and alliances, toward newer ones.. A few leading alliances are: NPP—consists of different political parties, youth groups, women’s organizations, trade unions, and civil society groups; SJB-led alliance which includes Sri Lanka Muslim Congress; Tamil National Alliance; Sarvajana Balaya Alliance (SBA) headed by former Rajapaksa ally and media tycoon Dilith Jayaweera; New Democratic Front alliance (few members of UNP); Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) etc. Interestingly, the towering figures of Sri Lankan politics for decades including former Presidents/Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of UNP, Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa of SLPP will not participate in the parliamentary election (it is significant to mention that for the first time in decades, no members of the Rajapaksa family are contesting the election this time). This positions Sajith Premadasa's SJB as the primary challenger to the NPP. It also demonstrates a gradual shift in the political landscape of the country where previously the mainstream parties “rely mostly on a complex web of patronage-based networks to mobilize electorates.” However, the rise of the NPP in recent years, particularly following the Aragalaya protest, has significantly altered the political environment.

Rising Support for NPP and Potential for National Unity Government

Nevertheless, experts have cited that due to internal divisions, the SJB's position heading into the national election has been significantly weakened. Critics argue that despite initial expectations, Wickremesinghe's voters (as the former President is not contesting this time) are also unlikely to support Premadasa in the forthcoming election. It is believed that despite Premadasa receiving considerable support from the North and East in the September presidential election, but those votes were not for the SJB, but rather for the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), who supported SJB in the last presidential election. However, since the TNA will be contesting separately in this election, it is likely that rather than SJB, NPP will see a significant boost in its share of the Northern and Eastern votes in the impending election. Speaking at an election rally in Vavuniya, President Dissanayake urged the people in the north and east to vote for the NPP, emphasizing that the NPP is the only party capable of fostering national harmony with the support of the Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim, and other communities. He further stated that measures would be taken to return the lands in the northern and eastern regions, which had been seized by the security forces during the war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for security purposes. Therefore, experts are arguing that for the first time in history, Tamil voters in northern Sri Lanka seem to be backing a Sinhalese president who has pledged to return their land and bring about a change in the traditional political system in the country. During an election campaign rally on Sunday AKD said, "In past elections, people did not have confidence in us but in September people gave us victory and proved that we are a winning party and we can form a government. The next task is to unite people from the four corners of this country and build a powerful people's movement." In general, with a fragmented and weak opposition who are arguably running a lacklustre campaign, the NPP seems well-positioned to secure victory, particularly given Sri Lankan voters' tradition of granting a parliamentary majority to the party of the newly-elected president. But many voters remain cautious of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the main party in the NPP alliance, recalling the brutal violence of their uprisings in 1971 and the late 1980s. However, there is no doubt that AKD’s victory in the September election, driven by widespread public frustration with the traditional political elite, paves the way for a potential transformation in the governance structure of the nation.

Conclusion

Therefore, to conclude, as the newly elected president gears up for the parliamentary elections, the NPP is optimistic about securing a majority, though the fragmented opposition, headed by Sajith Premadasa’s SJB, could still pose a formidable challenge. The upcoming election will not only assess the NPP's ability to reinforce its transition from a radical/peripheral group to a dominant political force, but also play a crucial role in shaping the island nation's future political trajectory. Given the current climate of significant economic and political uncertainty, Sri Lankans face a crucial decision: whether to stick with the old guard, who bring experience, or to embrace a new era of reform in the country’s political landscape. With the country preparing for the long-awaited local council elections next month, the outcome of this parliamentary election will undeniably have a decisive impact on the country’s path toward economic recovery and political stability for the years to come.

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