COVID-19 in West Asia

The COVID-19 pandemic has a devastating impact on human lives and the economic situation in the West Asian and North African region. The UAE was the first state in the region to report a positive case on 29 January. Iran subsequently, emerged as a major hotspot for the transmission of the virus. The variations in timings in terms of precautions, screening and restrictive measures have been critical to determine the scale of the pandemic among different states in the region.

The governments in the region are cautious about the economic downturn. Several states have introduced financial measures to stabilise the economy. Few states are however, undergoing economic crunch and relying on loans and humanitarian aid to cope with the crisis. The situation has particularly worsened in Lebanon that witnessed blast in Beirut port on 4 August further weakening the economy and adversely affecting trade, food and medical supplies. It is currently the most indebted state in the world (Alterman 2020).

The access to humanitarian aid in light of COVID-19 has become a powerful political tool for the United States (US) to coerce regimes such as Iran and groups such as Houthis and Hezbollah worsening the conditions for ordinary citizens. Several states have also engaged in political blame game accusing each other of spreading the virus. There were few acts of amnesty after several states released prisoners including political activists to curb the spread of the virus in prisons.

The present crisis has raised debates on whether the right to privacy violations and extra-constitutional powers applied in Jordan are justified to contain the pandemic (Human Rights Watch 2020). Israel adopted advanced surveillance tools to monitor its citizens during the lockdown period (Gross 2020). Several analysts have argued that COVID-19 crisis has enabled the governments in different states to curb dissent.

Oil exports from the region suffered due to severe oil market fluctuations and worldwide lockdowns. The agreements between Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major oil producers along with cuts in US shale oil production have contributed in stabilizing prices to some extent. The prices are however still well below pre-COVID-19 levels (IMF 2020).

Normalisation between Israel and the Arab states

In 2020, Israel managed to normalise ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in September; Bahrain and Sudan in October and Morocco in December. From the US perspective, the growing relations could intensify security cooperation between Israel and Arab states and facilitate coordinated strategy to thwart Iran’s influence.

The US under Donald Trump has re-oriented its strategic objective in the region by reducing ground troops from Syria and Iraq to counter the Islamic State (IS) and other radical groups and instead focusing on enhanced military cooperation and repositioning especially in the Persian Gulf region. The US has sought to increase the contribution of ground forces from partner states while helping them to upgrade their military arsenal.

The US has approved the sale of US$ 23 billion worth of arms to the UAE including 50 F-35 aircraft, 18 MQ-9B armed drones, air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions and Sidewinder missiles (Business Standard 2020). The US decision to allow sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE indicates the level of trust accorded to the Gulf state to assert itself as a frontline state in its regional policy against Iran. The US at the same time is committed to preserve Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME).

From the UAE’s perspective, the reasons for normalisation are multi-dimensional. The UAE’s worldview aligns with Israel on Iran, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood. The diplomatic understanding with Israel allows the UAE easier access to the US policy making circles as well as the arms market. Both Israel and UAE are interested in tapping the potential in terms of investment, research & development, science & technology and cooperation in health sector and vaccine production especially in light of the COVID-19 crisis.

For Bahrain, Iran’s assertive regional policy is seen as an existential threat and it accused the Islamic Republic of fomenting domestic unrest among the Shiite majority. Iran responded by threatening Bahrain with harsh revenge after normalisation with Israel (Radio Farda 2020).

Sudan after agreeing to normalise ties with Israel have been removed from the list of states sponsoring terrorism. It would allow the state better access to international financial institutions. Sudan is also seeking to optimise diplomatic ties with Israel to gain support for the political transition process and possible investments in development projects (The Arab Weekly 2020).

Morocco signed normalisation agreement with Israel on 10 December. The US rewarded Morocco by approving US$ 1 billion worth sale of arms including four sophisticated large aerial drones; four MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones with range of 6,000 nautical miles (11,100 km). The US also agreed to recognise Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara region (Capaccio & Wadham 2020). Morocco despite lack of formal relations already enjoys extensive military and intelligence cooperation with Israel. Earlier in January, Morocco received three Heron Reconnaissance drones as part of US$ 48 million deal with Israel (Middle East Monitor 2020).

Kuwait, Oman and Qatar maintain normal relations with Israel and Iran factor plays a limited role in its foreign policy objectives. Oman was the first Persian Gulf to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018 and it could likely be the next Arab state to officially normalise relations with Israel. Qatar coordinates with Israel for providing humanitarian and technical help in Gaza. Israel considers Qatar’s role as crucial in managing Gaza and Israeli officials and politicians have met with Qatari leadership on several occasions.

Saudi Arabia has indicated its support for the normalisation process and carried out few soft normalisation measures such as opening airspace for Israeli flights. The Saudi government at the official level has maintained that formal relations with Israel would only be possible in case of establishment of Palestinian state (Bibbo 2020).

In the coming year, normalisation may prompt better intelligence cooperation. It should however be noted that Israel as well as Arab states are quite protective about their strategic autonomy and joint military operations are not likely occur in the near future. The US also intends to maintain its control over the region by changing its approach i.e. selling weapons and training rather than through direct military presence.

Thaw in Inter-GCC tensions

The US President Donald Trump in December renewed attempts at reconciliation between the Saudi led coalition and Qatar. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Egypt and Sudan had imposed trade embargo on Qatar since mid 2017s. The Saudi led coalition demanded Qatar to cut off ties with Iran and its allies and shut down, Al Jazeera News Channel. Qatar however has managed to stay afloat. Among the regional actors, Kuwait has been actively mediate between the two neighbours.

On 4 December, Saudi Arabia announced that it is ready to reconcile with Qatar following the visit by Jared Kushner. It is however, unlikely that Qatar would give in to Saudi Arabia’s terms. The UAE has welcomed the development and appreciated the efforts of Kuwait and the US to strengthen Gulf unity (France 24 2020).

US-Iran tensions

President Donald Trump during his last year in office sought to escalate tensions with the Islamic Republic and jeopardise its diplomatic engagement with other Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) member states. The US intensified the maximum pressure strategy to suffocate the economy and introduced targeted sanctions on several high level Iranian individuals including foundation connected to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei in November (Psaledakis & Pamuk 2020).

Earlier on 3 January, the US assassinated the head of the Quds Force, General Qassem Soleimani and Iran backed Iraqi paramilitary force, Popular Mobilisation Committee (PMC) Deputy Chief, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. In an expected retaliation while dissuading US response, Iranian missiles attacked Al Assad base near Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan without causing fatalities (BBC News 2020). The scope of military escalation temporarily subsided after President Trump and US Ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft ruled out further response (Nichols 2020). Iran subsequently observed strategic patience to preserve the goodwill from the European states, Russia and China. Iranian leaders continued to build the threat perception, demanded the US’ re-entry in the JCPOA and issued arrest warrant for President Trump and 35 other officials on murder and terrorism charges (Specia 2020).

Iranian leaders maintained criticism towards Israel and its occupation of Palestinian territories. The New York Times on 14 November reported that Israeli agents at the US’ request killed Al-Qaeda's second-in-command, Muhammad al-Masri in Tehran (Goldman, Schmitt, Fassihi & Bergman 2020). Israeli agents also killed nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on 27 November prompting the parliament to adopt resolution to increase uranium enrichment upto 20 percent in case of lack of action by France, the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany to ease sanctions. It also includes provision to commission new centrifuges at Natanz and Fordo nuclear sites (BBC News 2020; USIP 2020).

Despite US military and economic actions against Iran, there has been no slow down in its missile building capacity and regional outreach. There were reports of Iranian navy seizing cargo ships and the US capturing Iranian vessels in 2020 in the Strait of Hormuz region. President Trump’s maximum pressure strategy has therefore met with limited success.

From the US perspective, the assassination of Soleimani did not cause any major blowback. It indicates that the US has more flexibility to corner and militarily weaken Iran in case it continues to practise strategic patience and return to the global economy. The US in case of escalation is likely to focus on swift, targeted operations and cyber attacks on oil fields, missile bases and nuclear sites.

The upcoming Joe Biden administration would face multiple challenges to proceed with series of measures taken by President Trump before leaving office such as imposing sanctions on key North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) ally, Turkey; recognising Morocco’s sovereignty over disputed Western Sahara region; recognising Houthi movement as a terrorist group choking humanitarian aid and impeding dialogue; cornering the Palestinian position and crucially, escalation with Iran. Analysts have expressed hope that Biden would use diplomacy to make progress not only on Iran but also for resolving the civil wars in the region.

State of Civil Wars

Syria

In Syria, Bashar Al Assad government has managed to consolidate its gains in 2020 with the help of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. The Syrian forces in April 2019 had launched offensive against the insurgent held areas in Idlib governorate with the desired goal of securing every inch of its territory. Syria has accused Turkey of funding Idlib based militant groups and skirmishes between Syrian and Turkish forces have occurred on several occasions in 2019 and 2020. After Syrian air raids killed 34 Turkish soldiers on 27 February 2020, Turkey launched Operation Spring Shield against Syrian forces (Ozer 2020). The open confrontation subsided after Russia intervened leading to ceasefire on 5 March. Syrian forces while avoiding direct conflict with Turkey have continued limited military operations against rebel targets throughout the year.

The Islamic State (IS) has lost its territorial stretch in Syria, but continues to operate in security scarce areas near the Iraqi border. On 31 December, it ambushed a Syrian army convoy killing 37 soldiers near Deir ez Zor. It was the deadliest attack conducted by the IS since April 2019 (McKernan 2020).

Israeli forces have carried out number of air raids in southern Syria killing Iranian backed fighters as well as Syrian Army soldiers. Israeli forces maintain regular coordination with Russia to ensure the safety of Russian soldiers in the Syrian front (Al Jazeera 2020). Notably, Russian Ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov on 8 December dismissed Iran as the factor for the region’s problems and mentioned Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians and other Arab states as the key destabilising factor in the region. Viktorov called Israel as the aggressor that has carried out military action in territories of other sovereign states (The Times of Israel 2020).

Lastly, in a diplomatic boost for the Assad government, Oman reopened its embassy in Damascus and appointed Turki bin Mahmood al-Busaidy as the new ambassador on 5 October (AP News 2020). .

Libya

In Libya, the two rival governments based in Tripoli and Tobruk have engaged in conflict since April 2019. The ongoing civil war is driven by political competition over state institutions, resources etc. among militia groups as well as conflicting strategic interests of foreign actors. The internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) after suffering territorial losses managed to slow down Khalifa Haftar’s military advances. The GNA also received military boost from Turkey after it deployed ground troops in January 2020 (DW 2020).

As part of international efforts to de-escalate, Berlin Conclusions entailed de-escalation and formation of Joint Military Commission (JMC) i.e. 5+5 committee nominated by the two parallel governments to conduct dialogue. The two governments on 23 October announced permanent ceasefire facilitating the withdrawal of all military units and armed groups from the frontlines (Garda World 2020; Al Jazeera 2020).

On 16 November, the talks sponsored by the UN failed to establish an interim government to oversee the political transition and the constitution framing process. In terms of positive development, the delegates from both sides agreed to hold parliamentary and presidential elections on 24 December 2021. Libyans are however sceptical about the feasibility of holding elections and the intentions of the political leadership to restore stability (Al Jazeera 2020; Garda World 2020; UN News 2020).

Yemen

Yemen has remained fragmented between the Houthi controlled northern region and Abdrabbuh Hadi government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) controlled southern region. Saudi Arabia-UAE led coalition has continued its military action against Houthi targets in northern Yemen. The group has retaliated by targeting civilian areas inside Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi-UAE coalition was fragmented after STC declared self-rule in Aden and other southern provinces on 26 April. The ground forces under STC have played a key role in hindering Houthi advance during the course of civil war (Wintour 2020). The STC backed by the UAE eventually gave up its demand for self-rule and agreed to implement the power sharing deal under 2019 Riyadh Agreement. On 18 December, a new power sharing cabinet headed by Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik was announced comprising of members from both Hadi government, STC as well as Islah Party. The Hadi government maintained control over the key ministries i.e. Defence, Interior, Foreign Affairs and Finance (Arab News 2020; Reuters 2020).

Israel-Palestine conflict

Israel witnessed its third election in two years on 2 March 2020. The two largest parties i.e. Likud and Kahol Lavan after failing to cross the 61 seat majority mark in the 120 member Knesset, formed unity government. Netanyahu insisted on staying on as the Prime Minister for the first 18 months followed by Gantz taking over the top post. The deal was aimed to delay the corruption trial against Netanyahu (Gur 2020).

The public discontent continued to grow against Netanyahu government over mismanagement of COVID-19 crisis and corruption charges. The normalisation agreements with the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan failed to quell the outrage against the Prime Minister. Gantz blamed Netanyahu for blocking the new budget eventually breaking the fragile alliance in December (Hindustan Times 2020). Netanyahu is currently seeking to benefit from the swift vaccination policy prior to the coming election to improve his chances of winning the next term.

Israel has displayed institutional discrimination in its vaccination policy by denying access to the much needed vaccines to Palestinians. The government has transported batches of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines inside West Bank for distribution only among the Jewish settlers. Israel has claimed that it is not responsible for Palestinians’ wellbeing suggesting that the Palestinian Authority (PA) in accordance with the 1993 Oslo Peace Accords is obligated to observe international vaccination standards (Amnesty International 2021; Holmes & Balousha 2021).

In West Bank, the Netanyahu government agreed to temporarily halt the annexation plans to facilitate normalisation with the UAE and other Arab states. It has however continued to increase the number of housing units in the occupied territories. Israel has continued to demolish Palestinian buildings over lack of permits including vital humanitarian facilities and installations such as water and electricity networks in Jerusalem and its surrounding areas. According to B’tselem, 729 Palestinian buildings including 273 homes have been destroyed displacing 1006 people including 519 minors (Daily Sabah 2021).

In Gaza, there have been several instances of rocket strikes by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters and Israeli airstrikes throughout 2020. In number of fatalities, in 2019, around 150 Palestinians were killed (Xinhua 2019). The number has dropped to 27 in 2020: 23 in West Bank in East Jerusalem; one in Gaza and three inside Israel (Al Jazeera 2020). Moreover, one Israeli civilian and one soldier were killed in 2020 (Gross 2020).

China’s Outreach in the Region

China through the 2016 Arab Policy White paper and the US$ 20 billion oil and gas, plus economic package has outlined framework to develop industry, economic, security, political, and social ties with key actors in West Asia and North Africa region (Marks 2020). China’s key interests in the region are based on securing and preserving access to vital energy resources, expanding its commercial reach, and enhancing its political influence.

On 30 June, China claimed diplomatic victory after 57 states supported new National Security Law for Hong Kong in the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. Notably, all the West Asian states that are currently serving their terms in the UNHRC i.e. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, UAE and Yemen backed China’s new measures (Lawler 2020). It reflects China’s growing influence in the West Asian region as well as the international human rights regime.

China’s State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry jointly hosted a diplomatic strategic dialogue on Wednesday in Cairo on 9 January. The Chinese side mentioned the need to promote the joint building of the Belt and Road and intensify cooperation in production capacity, trade and economics, culture, and safety (Xinhua 2020). In the area of cultural diplomacy, Egyptian Minister of Education and Technical Education, Tarek Shawki and the Chinese Ambassador to Cairo, Liao Liqiang signed agreement on 7 September to teach the Chinese language in pre-university schools in Egypt as a second optional foreign language. The Egyptian Foreign Minister suggested that the language training could help Egyptians to benefit from China’s experience in economic development and other areas (Global Times 2020).

The Chinese Embassy in Tunisia organised an event in January to celebrate the success of training programmes to help Tunisians develop know-how in economic management, diplomacy, agriculture and health (Xinhua 2020).

On 4 March, Syria's Planning and International Cooperation Commission (PICC) Imad Sabouni and Chinese Ambassador to Syria Feng Biao signed an economic cooperation agreement in Damascus. China under the deal made a donation for funding a number of humanitarian and environmental projects (Xinhua 2020).

China has used medical aid in light of the COVID-19 crisis to deepen engagement with nearly all the states in the region. Jordan on 1 June received medical equipments worth US$ 750,000 including protective overalls, masks, and protective glasses, pairs of gloves, infrared thermometers and test strips. (Arab News 2020). Health diplomacy has been a top priority for Chinese firms in 2020. Chinese genomics firm, BGI group and UAE based Group-42 launched a new laboratory in the UAE on 2 April to facilitate testing and diagnosis of COVID-19 (Global Times 2020). Chinese firm Huo-yan Laboratories on 26 April signed a US$ 265 million deal with Saudi government to provide 9 million coronavirus testing kits and six test laboratories to increase local coronavirus testing capacity to 50,000 people per day (Global Times 2020).

In Beirut, Chinese Ambassador to Lebanon Wang Kejian and Lebanese Culture Minister Abbas Mortada signed an agreement on 27 May to establish cultural centres in both states and provide a broader platform for cultural exchanges and mutual understanding (Xinhua 2020).

The New York Times in July reported about the details of 18-page proposed agreement between China and Iran to expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. China in exchange would supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years. The agreement calls for joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence sharing and Chahbahar-Zahedan railway track. The agreement worth US$ 400 billion on the period of 25 years is highly ambitious. The agreement is aimed at undercutting the US’ maximum pressure strategy and likely to increase Iran’s proximity with China (Fassihi & Myers 2020).

The UAE hosted the first ever China-UAE Economic and Trade Digital Expo between 15 and 21 July to enhance trade, people-to-people synergies in transition to digital economy Both sides held discussions to promote cooperation in Smart Metropolitan and Big Data, Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles, Modern Agriculture, Free zone/Finance and Investment, New Building Materials, Textile and Fashion, Education, Healthcare Supply (medical items), and Travel and Tourism etc (MERAAS 2020).

India’s Outreach in the Region

India has consistently supported peace, stability and development in West Asia and sees the region as part of its extended neighbourhood. It welcomed the normalisation agreements while continuing its traditional support for the Palestinian cause and on several occasions has reiterated for early resumption of direct negotiations to find an acceptable two-state solution. India since establishing ties with Israel in 1992 has successfully de-hyphenated its foreign policy and developed extensive ties in military technology, agriculture, investments, education etc. India at the same time has expanded cooperation with the Persian Gulf states and engagement has enlarged in energy, economic, defence, education sphere. In light of the COVID-19 crisis, India’s support in providing medicines and equipments has been highly appreciated by the West Asian states.

On 17 August, Dr. S. Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India and Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation co-hosted the 13th Session of the India-UAE Joint Commission Meeting on Trade, Economic and Technical Cooperation. Earlier, virtual meetings of the members of the 5 Sub-Committees from India and the UAE on Overview and High-level exchanges; Economic, Trade and Investment cooperation; Consular & Community Affairs cooperation; Defence and security cooperation; and Education, culture and youth cooperation were held on 10 and 11 August 2020 (MEA 2020).

Earlier on 13 August 2020, the Senior Officials Meeting (SOM) was virtually held between Sanjay Bhattacharyya, Secretary, Consular, Passport and Visa & Overseas Indian Affairs and Abdul Nasser Al Shaali, Assistant Minister of Economic and Trade Affairs. The Indian side invited further investments from UAE in key sectors of the Indian economy such as infrastructure including logistics, food parks, highways, ports, airports, renewable energy and defence. The UAE delegation appreciated the contributions of the Indian expatriate community and expressed its willingness to further strengthen links in energy and food security (MEA 2020).

India and the UAE are actively cooperating to combat the global pandemic. In April, India dispatched a consignment of 5.5 million pills of hydroxychloroquine to the UAE for the treatment of COVID-19 patients. In May, India sent a batch of 88 Intensive Care Unit nurses to help manage the need for health professional in Emirati hospitals. The UAE reciprocated by sending 7 metric tons of medical supplies to India. The leaders of the two states, including Prime Minister Modi and Crown Prince Mohamed, have maintained regular communication to take stock of the fight against the pandemic and exchange ideas to boost cooperation (Quamar 2020).

The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General MM Naravane for the first time visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia on 8 December. General Naravane held meetings with senior military officials in both Persian Gulf states and discussed on measures to improve further military cooperation. In Saudi Arabia, the Army Chief visited the headquarters of the Royal Saudi Land Force and the Joint Force Command Headquarters. He also visited the King Abdul Aziz Military Academy and the National Defence University and interacted with the faculty and students at the institutions (Raksha Anirveda 2020). The visit by the Indian Army Chief reflects its growing will to intensify security cooperation especially in the Persian Gulf states.

Besides, the Persian Gulf states, India have been close diplomatic communication with the Israeli leadership in 2020. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on July 2020 held a telephonic conversation with his Israeli counterpart Lt Gen Benjamin Gantz. Both leaders discussed about the speedy implementation of ongoing defence procurement programmes and expansion of overall defence and security ties. Singh informed Gantz about reforms initiated by the government in the defence manufacturing sector and invited larger Israeli participation in joint-development of weapons and military hardware with Indian companies (The Hindustan Times 2020). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in April thanked his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi for sending five-tonne cargo of medicines, including anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine (India Today 2020). Both states signed cultural agreement on 20 August to strengthen people-to-people ties (The Hindu 2020).

On 7 December, India and Israel carried out a comprehensive review of their cooperation in defence and security, cyberspace, counter-terrorism and energy. The Indian delegation led by Sanjay Bhattacharyya, Secretary, Consular, Passport and Visa, and Overseas Indian Affairs division and Alon Ushpiz, Director General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs participated in virtual meeting to discuss approaches to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing collaboration in medical research, developing Centres of Excellence in agriculture, pilot project on water conservation in Bundelkhand region and close collaboration between Gujarat based International Centre for Entrepreneurship and Technology and Israel's Start-Up Nations Central to provide incubation support for co-development of niche technologies (The New Indian Express 2020).

India with regard to Iran hosted Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in mid-January in the midst of spiralling tension between his country and the US. India urged the Iranian leader to pursue de-escalation as soon as possible (The New Indian Express 2020). India provided medical aid including Paracetamol and Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) drugs to Iran. The Indian government also sent consignment of pesticides to Iran to support saving its crops from being ravaged by swarms of desert locusts (Bhaumik 2020).

On 14 December, the first Trilateral Working Group Meeting between India, Iran and Uzbekistan was held on the joint use of Chabahar Port. Indian Secretary under Ministry of Shipping, Shi Sanjeev Ranjan; Uzbek Deputy Minister of Transport, D. Dehkanov and Iranian Deputy Transport Minister, Shahram Adamnejad participated in the meeting and discussed the joint use of Chabahar Port for trade and transit purposes and enhancing regional connectivity. India’s proposal to hold "Chabahar Day” was welcomed by all sides on the sidelines of the International Maritime Summit scheduled to be hosted by India in January 2021 (MEA 2020).

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