Peace Agreement among Israel, Bahrain and the UAE

On 15 September, Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed peace agreements in the presence of the US President Donald Trump in Washington DC. President Trump suggested that the agreement would mark the dawn of a New Middle East. The peace deal is seen as a strategic gain for the US and Israel to further isolate Iran. Dubai based port operator, DP World signed memorandums of understanding with Dover Tower, a company owned by Shlomi Fogel, the co-owner of Israel Shipyards and the Port of Eilat. The firms are exploring the possibility of direct shipping route between Jebel Ali ports to Eilat. DP World has also indicated interest to bid for acquiring section in the Haifa Port. On 16 September, Israeli civilian airliner El Al made its maiden flight to Dubai.

The deals by the Arab states have been criticised for failing to gain territorial concessions from Israel. Palestinians have called it a stab in the back by its Arab brethren. Notably, while the Israeli delegation was led by the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the UAE and Bahrain sent their foreign ministers to sign the agreement. Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan thanked Netanyahu for “halting the annexation” in exchange for recognition. Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani assured that the country would continue to stand with the Palestinians. The absence of the head of states from the UAE and Bahrain in the agreement signing ceremony indicates the anxiety about domestic protests. Opposition groups in Bahrain have criticised the decision of the government to open diplomatic ties with Israel. Bahrain’s engagement with Israel has been highly unpopular and civil group groups have come out to register their protest.

On the day of signing, two rockets were fired inside Israel lightly injuring two people. IDF responded by striking 10 sites under Hamas control including weapons and explosives manufacturing factory, underground infrastructure and military training compound.

The US to designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally

The US has indicated that it would designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally that would upgrade its status to receive preferential access to US military equipment and technology including free surplus material, expedited export processing and prioritized cooperation on training. Currently, 17 states are under the ambit of Major Non-NATO ally including Kuwait and Bahrain where the US Fifth Fleet elements are located. The US’ largest military facility in the region is located in Qatar. The US has been pushing the Gulf States to reconcile with Qatar that has dented the prospect of a united Gulf front against Iran.

Protests in Israel

In Israel, the corruption charges against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have continued to occupy the political space and protests calling for his resignation have continued in September. The grievances have been compounded due to the poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability and unemployment.

According to a survey conducted by Israel Democracy Institute, the public trust towards Netanyahu in handling the pandemic has declined. While the trust towards Netanyahu was high in March and April between 54 and 57.5, it has plummeted to 30 percent in July. The decline is noteworthy among the Netanyahu’s Likud Party voter base that has declined from 83 percent in April to 55 percent in July 2020. Moreover, 45 percent of the population has expressed disappointment over the government’s handling of the crisis.

Netanyahu’s governing coalition narrowly survived in August after an agreement was reached with his coalition partner, Benny Gantz to delay a budget vote until December.

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

On 27 September, clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan erupted with both sides blaming the other in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Nagorno-Karabakh region is demographically dominated by Armenians. During Soviet Union’s control over the region, Nagorno-Karabakh was recognised as an autonomous territory within the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan. In the late 1980s, ethnic Armenians fearing the forceful incorporation of the territory in future Azerbaijani state revolted and the Nagorno-Karabakh legislature voted to join the Armenian republic in 1988. The decision was however dismissed by Moscow. Armenian separatist forces backed by Armenia after the disintegration of the Soviet Union seized the territory along with seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts. The conflict killed around 30,000 people on both sides. In 1994, Azerbaijan and separatist forces backed by Armenia formally accepted the internationally brokered ceasefire; however sporadic clashes have erupted from time to time in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the Azerbaijani-Armenian international border. Earlier in July this year, 17 soldiers from both sides were killed.

In the ongoing clash, the Armenian government accused Azerbaijani troops of attacking civilian areas in Nagorno-Karabakh and responded by crashing two helicopters and three drones. Azerbaijan has called its military action as counteroffensive to thwart Armenian aggression and secure its population. It has moved tanks, artillery missiles, combat aviation and drones in the frontline areas.

The Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced the decision to impose martial law and called for total mobilisation to defend the sacred homeland. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also warned against those using intimidation tactics and called for defending its lands including Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation has been further escalated due to the entry of external actors. Armenia and France have accused Turkey of sending mercenaries from northern Syria to supplement Azerbaijani forces in the conflict. Armenia also reported that Turkish F-16 fighter jet was used to shoot down an Armenian SU-25 warplane. Turkey has said that it supports Azerbaijan’s efforts in the conflict, however denied sending troops.

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Designate resigns

The newly appointed Prime Minister Designate Mustapha Adib resigned on 26 September as a result of political impasse over formation of the new cabinet. Adib was appointed as consensus candidate by the major political factions including the Maronite predominantly Free Patriotic Movement, Sunni predominant Future Movement and Shiite predominant Hezbollah and Amal Movement etc after Hasan Diab resigned on 10 August in light of the explosion in Beirut on 4 August.

Adib during cabinet formation process had inclined towards appointing technocrats rather than political appointees handpicked by the sectarian based political parties. During discussions, Hezbollah and Amal Movement insisted on maintaining control over the Finance Ministry. Adib held several meetings with senior Shiite politicians however the differences could not be resolved.

Lebanon’s unique political structure was reshaped by the 1989 Taif Accord that entails proportional political representation among the 18 recognised sects. The prevalence of the confessional system, however, encouraged sectarian loyalty for political goals and nurtured a system of patronage by granting rewards in exchange of votes. The sectarian political parties ally with parties of different sects to serve their interests. The contemporary politics is broadly divided between the March 8 Alliance and March 14 Alliance. The alliances emerged in 2005 over differences about Syrian control in Lebanon.

The March 14 Alliance includes Saad Harari’s Future Movement which is largely pro-western and pro-Saudi Arabia. The March 8 Alliance, comprising of Hezbollah and Maronite predominant, Free Patriotic Movement, is more accommodative towards Iran and Syria. The geopolitical competition between the two regional rivals i.e. Iran and Saudi Arabia has affected the domestic politics and added to the mutual suspicion between the Shiite predominant Hezbollah and the Sunni predominant Future Movement.

The political parties are unwilling to compromise their political hold and have tried their best to deflect the demand for technocratic government raised during protests since last year. It is feared that the continuing political instability could further worsen the economic situation in the state.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Visits Syria

Russia’ Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Damascus and met with President Bashar Al Assad on 7 September. The visit was made to prepare the ground for an elaborate agreement on more than forty new projects in areas of energy, reconstruction of power stations and offshore oil extraction. Syria is facing unprecedented economic and political challenge. Russia is keen to restore the regime capacity and improve its governance function. It would however be difficult for Russia witnessing its own economic downturn to single-handedly revive the economy and keen to attract international partners to fulfil its objective.

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