The Chinese civilization is characterized by its ability to do long term perspective thinking of an unusual order. As far back as 1952, Chairman Mao Ze dong had articulated that Water Stress in the Northern and Western parts of China would be a very major challenge that would emerge a half century or so later. In fact this strategic long term thinking seems to have originated much earlier than 1952 and seems to have been instrumental in China’s decision to invade and conquer Tibet – the Water Tower of Asia – in 1950 itself.
The following facts are pertinent:-
The Roots of Water Hegemony
The severe nature of the water stress in China needs to be seen in the light of another set of circumstances that make China a natural hydro (or water) hegemon. Consider the following:-
Water Wars
Many strategic experts have been forecasting that the 21st Century will see the era of Water Wars as opposed to the earlier wars for the control of hydro carbon energy resources. However, acuteness of Water Stress was supposed to reach threshold levels of conflict only sometimes around the middle point of this century. Unfortunately, China’s hydro-aggression is now threatening to usher in the start of water wars many decades in advance.
Diverting the Brahmaputra
The Chinese leadership has always thought in hydrological terms. Hence its very early attempts to seize Tibet and assume control of the water tower of Asia. That is why the Chinese leadership invests such strategic significance in the TAR. Even today many top Chinese leaders are hydrological engineers. In fact Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is a Geological Engineer and President Hu Jintao is a Hydraulic Engineer. The plan to divert the Brahmaputra (Yarling Tsangpo to the Chinese) was initially mooted by a Chinese Engineer called Liling in his book “Tibet Water will save China”. He elaborated the idea of a massive Shuomatan Canal (stretching from Sumatan in Tibet to Tanjiang in North China). This canal would take off from the bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo and divert its water to the North of China. This grandiose plan was vociferously supported by Gen Gao Kai of the PLA. This was supposed to commence in 2002. This issue caused considerable concern in India. In 2006 when President Hu Jintao was visiting India, the Chinese Water Resources Minister Wang Shucheng tried to allay these fears. He deemed this grandiose project as “unnecessary, unfeasible and unscientific”. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson (Lui Jian chao) confirmed that, “The Chinese government had no plans to build a dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo to divert its waters to the Yellow river”. Liu Changming, a hydrologist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences stated that the proposal to tap the Brahmaputra would be “far too expensive, technologically unfeasible and controversial” (in terms of international reaction)
Medong Project Despite these denials China commenced a $ 60 Billion plan in March 2009 to construct a series of dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo bend. A 141 km long road has been constructed in the Nymchang area and a Tunnel in the Galuglya Mountain. Zongmi is the first dam in a series of dams that will be built at Jicho, Zagola, Leyla and Medong. When quizzed about these dams, the Chinese replied that these were run of the river hydro power projects and would not affect the down stream flow to India’s North Eastern States or to Bangladesh. India’s Foreign Ministry tamely agreed. To prepare our people for a virtual fait accompli , a canard was spread that the bulk of the water in the Brahmaputra came from South of the Himalayan water shed and hence diversion of the Yarlung Tsangpo waters would not affect us adversely. This anxiety to avoid conflict with China on such an ultra sensitive issue is baffling. As per the tenets of International law, an act of diverting water away from reaching towards India is tantamount to an act of war. However, with Armed Forces that have most deliberately been under funded and under resourced for the last two decades, India today is hardly in any position to wage war against China (It has shied away so far from even taking Pakistan to task on the issue of terrorism). We have therefore chosen to put blind faith in China’s pronouncements that these are just run of the river projects. Claude Arpi writes that after five years, Prof Wang Guang Quian of the Chinese Academy of Science has clearly said that China has no choice but to divert the waters of the Yarlung Tsangpo. He, in fact, speaks of a new proposed route “The Brahmaputra waters are expected to be routed to Xinjiang along the Quinghai – Tibet railway line alignment and the Hexi corridor part of the Silk Route located on the Gansu Corridor”. Wang conceded “We thought this would be a plan 50 years later”. He added that “Chinese experts and government officials are still studying the feasibility and impact of these new proposals”.
The entire problem is the speed of Chinese decision making on subjects of such great enormity. The Three Gorges Dams were pushed through without a thought for their adverse ecological and Seismic consequences. These are now coming to the fore and causing serious disquiet. The water stress factor weighs heavily on the Chinese leadership. It is now compounded with great fears regarding food security for the huge Chinese population. Over farming in China is leading to desertification. Over use of chemicals and fertilizers is leading to soil salinity. Add water scarcity to this and the mix is explosive. Gen Ma Xiiaotian, China’s former Defense Minister, had in a series of startling speeches highlighted a Chinese concept of Lebensaraum or the need for living space for the Chinese masses in neghbouring countries. Water-hegemony is the thin edge of that wedge. Water shortage is becoming a major impediment to China’s goal of food security. Therefore the quest for water is an unyielding imperative for China. Chinese needs seemingly override the needs of all other countries in the region. The Chinese have shown scant regard for the sensitivities of the lower Riparian States of the Mekong and the Brahamaputra Rivers. The Medong Project on the Yarlung Tsangpo bend will be completed by 2015.
What can India do? It can at the very least strongly articulate its concerns. We cannot feed the paranoia in the North Eastern States by signaling that for Delhi they could not matter less. It will only strengthen the narrative of callous neglect and unconcern in the North East. India therefore urgently needs to: -
Notes
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Published Date: 6th July, 2011
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