The global situation is likely to become even more uncertain and complex as President Trump begins to unfold and implement his radical policies. His repeated threats during the campaign for about the imposition of tariffs on imports from China and other countries is sure to trigger unsettling trade wars. At the same time, his promise to help end the Russia-Ukraine war swiftly could provide the world with much-needed relief from endless conflicts and geopolitical tensions. These are, however, early days. The world is bracing to deal with unpredictable, dealmaker Trump.

How will India and Russia navigate the uncertain, unpredictable global environment? Fortunately, both countries have a long history of close cooperation even during difficult times. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Indo-Russia relations suffered some setbacks but soon recovered with the establishment of a ‘Strategic Partnership’ in 2000 which was upgraded to the "Special and Privileged" status in 2010. They are now working closely at the multilateral fora like BRICS, SCO and G20. Both countries support a multipolar world and advocate the emergence of the Global South.

India and Russia have successfully negotiated the post-Feb 2022 global turbulence. Prime Minister Modi’s view that this should not be an era of wars and that disputes should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy has been appreciated by President Putin. The latter has publically acknowledged India’s rising global profile and praised Modi’s diplomacy during India’s G20 presidency in 2023. The two leaders have maintained regular contact. They enjoy excellent chemistry which allows them to discuss difficult issues in an open and constructive manner.

Indo-Russian ties have gained significant momentum in the past three years. Narendra Modi visited Russia in July 2024 and had a productive meeting with President Putin. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached a record USD 66 billion in 2024, marking a fivefold increase over the past five years. The ambitious trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030 is within reach.

Eurasia, characterized by its rich natural resources, critical trade routes, and a complex web of political alignments, is an area of immense strategic importance for both Russia and India. They share a common interest in ensuring stability and fostering multipolarity in the region. Initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) aim to foster greater economic integration and diverse trade routes through new connections. India’s involvement in these projects signals its intent to deepen its Eurasian engagement.

The China and US factors

It is natural that as two global powers, the US and China have significant influence on the global and regional environment. While Russia-China strategic partnership has assumed a “no limits” character, India-China ties have been strained after the military clashes on the India-China border in eastern Ladakh in 2020. However, there are signs of improvement in bilateral relations following the Modi-Xi meeting in Kazan in Oct 2023 on the margins of the BRICS summit. Russia has welcomed the Sino-Indian thaw. India-China trade has been increasing steadily crossing the USD 120 billion mark in 2024. Sino-Indian thaw might help in reviving the Russia-India-China trilateral mechanism which held its last summit level meeting in Nov 2018. It is to the credit of the two countries that they have not let the China factor come in the way of the development of bilateral cooperation.

In the last two decades, India-US relations have become strategic, encompassing defence, security, political, economic, and technological fields. Wide ranges of agreements have been signed to put the bilateral ties on a firm footing. Bilateral trade in goods and services is close to USD 200 bn per annum. The 4-million strong Indian diaspora in the US exerts considerable influence on Indo-US relations. The relationship has continued to grow across the democratic and republican administrations. The two countries have a common interest in the stability in the Indo-Pacific region, which has been impacted by China’s rise.

Trump’s return has brought in some uncertainty in Indo-US ties, particularly in the trade field. Yet, analysts in India feel that the foundation of Indo-US relations are strong and the bilateral tie will continue to grow even in the Trump 2.0 era. The important point to be underlined is that India follows an independent foreign policy guided by its national interests and the desire for global peace and stability. Its relations with Russia or any other country will not be influenced by a third country. This was evident in India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict despite the pressure on India to take the anti-Russia line and join the Western sanctions against Russia. India refused. If Trump plays a positive role in the ending of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this will be beneficial for Russia-US relations and have a positive impact on India-Russia relations.

New agenda

The world is changing. India and Russia cannot rely only on past achievements. The future of Russia-India relations will hinge on their ability to adapt to emerging challenges, capitalize on new opportunities and evolve a new agenda in bilateral ties. Such an agenda should be centred on cooperation in science and technology, critical minerals, food, health and energy security, skills and education. Sustainable development, defence and security, cutting-edge technologies like AI, cyber and space will also form an integral part of the new template of cooperation. Apart from INSTC, the Chennai –Vladivostok economic corridor needs to be developed. Innovative ways will have to be found to deal with the issues arising out of secondary sanctions.

No doubt, there would be significant challenges arising out of geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts. The evolution of relations between big powers like the US, China, Russia and India will have a major impact on global stability. Given their close and trouble-free ties, India and Russia are well placed to make a positive contribution to global peace and development.

(The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation. The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere, and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct). (The paper does not necessarily represent the organisational stance... More >>