The India-U.S. partnership embarked on a new trajectory at the turn of the century when strains that appeared post India’s nuclear tests in 1998 were replaced by a common recognition of convergence of strategic interests. The restoration of existing bilateral mechanisms and enabling of waivers in respect of sanctions applied on India paved the way for several new initiatives. Significant milestones came in the period 2004-05, with the announcements of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP), New Framework for U.S.-India Defence Relations (covering a period of 10 years), and the Civil Nuclear deal. Gradual announcement of several mechanisms and agreements in diverse areas covering security, economic, trade, technology and people to people ties made the relationship deeper and multi-faceted. The framework for defence relations was renewed in 2015 for another 10 years, the foundational agreements were concluded and implemented over a period, both countries contributed to the new concept of the Indo-Pacific region from around 2016, successfully coordinated towards the revival of Quad 2.0 in 2017, and joined hands in 2021 to create the I2U2 (India, Israel, the UAE, and the U.S.). In 2023, they displayed strong collaboration in the G20 with India as the Chair, and the two leaders launched the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor (IMEEC) during the summit held in New Delhi. In the same year, a major boost came with the launch of arrangements like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), the India-U.S. Defence Acceleration Ecosystem [INDUS (X)] and the Roadmap for Defence Industrial Cooperation. Through bilateral dialogue, several trade disputes pending at the WTO were resolved, trade barriers overcome in different sectors, tax structures rationalized, and investments and joint ventures in businesses gained momentum. In September 2024, both sides emphasized that they continue to expand Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership, while delivering on ambitious agenda. In several sectors, including defence technology and industrial cooperation, the sustained efforts of many years are now poised to move from ‘deliverables’ to ‘deliveries.’

In the last 10 years or so, cooperation and collaboration between the two countries in the Indo-Pacific region has also evolved rapidly. Though the initial focus was on the maritime domain, the partnership in the region now covers several diverse sectors. Through bilateral and plurilateral mechanisms, significant progress has been made to promote and sustain stability, security, and development. The Quad has contributed to strengthening deterrence against expansionism and coercion, towards maintaining effective balance of power in the region, and in driving the delivery of global public goods. Efforts have been made to see that mini-lateral arrangements involving either of the two countries become mutually reinforcing. Progress in information and intelligence sharing, and in dealing with new challenges at sea has been particularly noteworthy. Since around 2022, the engagement in the western Indian Ocean region has also been given impetus. Cooperation at the bilateral level and in the Indo-Pacific region have become synonymous, as stressed in joint statements in the last few years. However, while the two propel each other, the partnership has remained strong on its own merit.

The efforts made by both sides to create an enabling environment for a durable and comprehensive partnership, by addressing several legislative, regulatory and procedural hurdles, have been impressive though in some areas it is still work in progress. However, 2024 has been a difficult year for the relationship notwithstanding the fact that new agreements were signed and progress made on several ongoing initiatives during the year. Voices of concern were raised in the U.S. about India’s continuing partnership with Russia, allegations of hire for murder, treatment of minorities and religious freedom, and backsliding in democratic values and norms. Similarly, concerns have been raised in India about the U.S. intervention in India’s domestic affairs, targeting of India by the ‘deep state’ in the U.S., unsubstantiated criticism of India by American agencies having political motives, inadequate appreciation of India’s concept of strategic autonomy, support to anti-India elements in India’s immediate neighbourhood, and use of pressure tactics. Unlike in the past, these concerns found sustained commentary in the social media, leading to some doubts in the societies at large about the future of this relationship, with attendant risks of alienation.

The strategic rationale for the relationship continues to be as compelling as it has been during the last 25 years. This is on account of four key considerations. The first relates to mutual benefits at the bilateral level in diverse areas including security, economy, trade, investments, technology, industry, supply chains, connectivity, climate, clean and renewable energy, education, innovation and talent exchange-which are now covered by more than 50 working groups or mechanisms that are seeking to accelerate progress. The second is the alignment of mutual interests in the Indo-Pacific region with joint efforts to promote stability, security and prosperity while dealing with an aggressive China. These efforts have yielded tangible results and added value in the last decade. The third relates to working together to reform the global and regional governance structures and multilateral institutions, the need for which has been recognized by both sides, though with different emphasis and urgency for the same. The U.S. wields substantial power to bring in such reforms and India, through its strong presence in diverse geopolitical groupings is in a unique position to build consensus in a fractured global architecture. As an emerging power India has shown that it is neither revisionist nor status-quoist but reformist in its approach. This approach has a special appeal to Global South, wherein India’s credentials are now well established. The fourth consideration accordingly is to jointly bridge the North-South divide in a meaningful and effective manner, prevent violent conflicts, and work towards inclusive development and shared prosperity.

The outgoing U.S. administration has highlighted that it was leaving the India-U.S. relationship “in a very strong place” with unprecedented collaboration “on regional and global issues” and expects the same speed and scale to continue. At the same time, the statement recognized the challenges being faced by the relationship.

The assumption of office by the new administration in the U.S. provides an opportunity to both sides to overcome some of the recent developments that have caused friction, while simultaneously addressing potential new challenges related to tariffs, market access and immigration. The incoming team is confident that new tariffs will neither raise inflation nor cause any growth drag in the U.S. due to likely ‘currency offsets.’ The impact on businesses is planned to be minimized by following a phased approach with varying tariff rates. The U.S. concept of ‘burden sharing’ is likely to link trade and security. This will require careful management as India may not meet all criteria for being in the lower bracket, but imperatives of the partnership necessitate that bilateral tariffs are kept low. On the other hand, President-elect Trump’s clear articulation about the need to end the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and plans to reduce overregulation in the U.S. can be a strong positive in the forward momentum of the bilateral partnership.

The larger goal should be to build upon the joint efforts of a quarter century. An early statement by the new U.S. administration highlighting continuity, a comprehensive joint statement in due course, a revised framework for cooperation for the next 10 years, and joint efforts for the next Quad summit to be hosted by India will be significant as the partnership enters a new phase. Both sides recognize that ‘shared values’ are not ‘same values’, and ‘like-minded’ is not ‘same minded’. The emphasis therefore should be on mutual and shared interests, at bilateral, regional and global levels. At the same time, strengthening of the partnership should be accompanied by efforts to ensure a high level of trust between the two societies.

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