The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Heads of Government (CHG) Summit held in Islamabad has garnered significant attention due to the regional dynamics among member countries, particularly between India and Pakistan, as well as India and China. Media attention was also drawn to the summit because of the recent killings of Chinese nationals in Pakistan, which sparked concerns about possible tensions between the two nations. Two Chinese nationals were killed, and at least ten others were injured in an alleged suicide attack near Pakistan's Karachi airport. Pakistan is home to thousands of Chinese labourers. Most of them are engaged in Beijing's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, which involves developing the Gwadar port and building an economic corridor (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor i.e. CPEC) between the two nations. Repeated attacks have targeted Chinese nationals as the ethnic Baloch people claim that they are not receiving a fair share of the wealth created by foreign investment and the extraction of natural resources in the Baluchistan province where these projects are based.

The CHG Summits are typically held by the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on a rotational basis. Their purpose is to prepare a roadmap for implementing initiatives agreed upon by the leaders during the SCO Summits. While these summits often go unnoticed, the recent summit in Pakistan attracted significant attention for several reasons. As anticipated, the CHG Summit in Islamabad reaffirmed the standard positions of the participating member nations, but it also highlighted the considerable geopolitical significance tied to the bilateral dynamics among some of the member states.

Spotlight on Pakistan-China Relations

Islamabad's approach to the summit emphasized its interest in highlighting relations with China, along with Chinese investments and activities in the region, rather than offering concrete proposals for the SCO nations. As the host of the SCO Summit, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif shared his vision for regional cooperation in his speech. He eulogised the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The highlight was the PM Shahbaz Sharif and Chinese Premier Li Qiang meeting on the sidelines of the Summit. Pakistan and China inked 13 deals, including a currency swap, to further promote economic growth and productivity in many sectors such as security, education, agriculture, human resource development, and science and technology. ^[1]

Pakistan is currently experiencing a severe economic crisis, which has heightened concerns about the country's debt situation with China. According to the World Bank's latest International Debt Report for 2023, China constitutes over 72% of Pakistan's foreign bilateral debt. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has repeatedly asked Islamabad to provide information regarding Chinese loans and has advised Pakistan not to use rescue packages to pay off these debts. Despite this, Pakistan's dependence on Beijing is increasing steadily. ^[2]

In his address, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif also emphasized the importance of collaboration among all parties to enhance connectivity through extensive road, rail, and digital infrastructure development. He also called for cooperative investment and encouraged participants to look beyond partisan divides. This stance highlights Pakistan's contradictory approach toward India, especially considering India's objections to the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) region. Despite these objections, China and Pakistan have continued their efforts. All member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) signed the clause related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), except for India. Sharif notably made no comments about India in his address, suggesting that Islamabad aimed to avoid any controversy.

Prime Minister Sharif emphasized a few other critical areas in his agenda, focussing on poverty alleviation, climate change action, and the Gaza crisis. He framed poverty as a "moral imperative" and identified climate change as an existential challenge that requires urgent attention. In light of the country’s recent experiences with natural disasters like severe floods, enhancing resilience to mitigate climate impacts has become essential. Confronting the economic challenges also provides an opportunity to address poverty as a significant humanitarian concern.

India’s Tough Stance on Terrorism and Extremism

At the summit, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar represented India despite initial doubts about New Delhi’s participation. He delivered a measured yet strong statement, emphasizing the need for honest dialogue within the SCO framework. Jaishankar underlined that SCO must effectively address the pressing issues in today’s complex world. He stressed the urgency of combatting terrorism, separatism, and extremism which was the key objective behind the creation of this SCO. In response to Sharif's statement about trade and connectivity among SCO member states, Jaishankar indirectly countered his comments. He said that if cross-border operations involve terrorism, it will be difficult for cooperation in sectors like trade to flourish.

Jaishankar also highlighted many Indian initiatives, such as the Digital Power Initiatives (DPI), International Solar Alliance (ISA), and efforts in environmental protection. This demonstrated India’s willingness to engage constructively while advocating for a vision of cooperative development. When India had the SCO presidency in 2023 and convened the summit in virtual mode, there was so much outcry blaming India for not taking SCO seriously. This further intensified when PM Modi did not physically attend the SCO Summit in Astana this year. However, EAM Jaishankar’s participation in CHG summit of SCO in Islamabad asserted that India attached the required importance to SCO.

Russia’s Focus on Economic Cooperation

It's no surprise that the repeated Western sanctions following the Ukraine crisis have prompted Russia to seek alternatives. In this context, the SCO countries have played a significant role. Notably, China and India have emerged as the two largest importers of Russian oil. Russia has remained one of the top economic partners for the Central Asian countries.

At the CHG summit, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s remarks focussed on shifting dynamics within the SCO. The rising mutual trade turnover among member states indicates growing economic interdependence, which could be beneficial. Mishustin pointed out Russia’s 4.2% GDP growth and increased fixed investment, suggesting that collective economic efforts might stabilize the regional economy. However, while these figures point to growth, they don't capture the intricate geopolitical games often accompanying such statistics. The conflicting interests among member states, especially around cooperation versus competition, overshadow these positive developments. Additionally, discussions about budgets and project approvals raise concerns: Will financial responsibilities truly reflect equal input from all members, or will they disproportionately benefit a few? These are some important questions to be pondered over when it comes to mutually beneficial cooperation within the SCO.

The Need for a New Paradigm

The SCO CHG summit sparked a broader conversation about the restructuring and function of international institutions. EAM Jaishankar's emphasis on the urgent need for reforming multilateralism to keep bodies like the United Nations Security Council relevant in a multipolar world resonates with a growing sentiment that current global governance structures are outdated. This summit allowed member states to engage in meaningful dialogue that could lead to renewed commitments to cooperation, mutual respect, and shared governance. Yet, without addressing the underlying tensions and rivalries, the potential for productive exchanges might remain unrealized.

Moreover, the focus on specific development initiatives raises important questions: Are these projects truly meeting the collective needs of all member states? Or are they merely tools for advancing particular national agendas? These concerns are critical in assessing whether the SCO can effectively navigate the complexities of regional politics.

Conclusion

The Islamabad summit of the SCO Council of Heads of Government highlighted the intricate regional dynamics in Eurasia, revealing the persistent challenges in fostering genuine cooperation. While significant proposals about collective economic initiatives were made, the lack of direct dialogue among key states, especially on contentious topics like the BRI, loomed large over the proceedings. As nations aim to improve connectivity, sustainability, and collaborative frameworks, it is essential to build a climate of trust and inclusivity. For the SCO to evolve into a robust platform for regional development and avoid being dominated by a single country, it must be sensitive to shared interests.

References

^[1] Pakistan, China sign 13 accords to strengthen multiple cooperation, Mettis Global News, October 15, 2024. https://mettisglobal.news/pakistan-china-sign-13-accords-to-strengthen-multiple-cooperation/
^[2] Sarral Sharma, ‘Cracks in China-Pakistan relations: Bilateral and external factors’, Expert Speak Raisina Debates, ORF. Sep 06, 2024. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/cracks-in-china-pakistan-relations-bilateral-and-external-factors#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20World%20Bank's,packages%20to%20repay%20Chinese%20debts.

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