Economic
Gold harder to find – industry body
The gold mining industry is struggling to maintain production growth as finding deposits of the yellow metal has become more difficult, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), cited by CNBC on June 09. Data from the trade association reportedly shows that mine production rose merely 0.5% in 2023 compared to a year ago. In 2022, the growth was 1.35% in annual terms, whereas the year before it had risen 2.7%. “We’ve seen record first quarter mine production in 2024, up 4% year-on-year,” WGC Chief Market Strategist John Reade told CNBC, adding: “But the bigger picture, I think about mine production is that, effectively, it plateaued around 2016, 2018 and we’ve seen no growth since then.” According to Reade, it is becoming harder to find new gold deposits around the world since many prospective areas have already been explored. He pointed out that large-scale gold mining is capital-intensive and requires significant exploration and development. It takes an average of 10 to 20 years before a mine is ready for production, the market strategist said, adding that only about 10% of discoveries contain sufficient deposits to warrant mining. Moreover, it can take several years to secure government licenses and permits needed for mining companies to start operations. Many mining projects in remote areas require building infrastructure such as roads, power, and water, Reade noted. Click here to read…
Developing countries face record interest payments as rates rise
The world's developing countries were expected to pay a record $150 billion-plus in interest on external debt in 2023 and again in 2024, according to the World Bank, raising concerns over the potential effect on the global economy. The figure amounts to about a third of the over $480 billion these countries are expected to pay in debt servicing costs in 2024. Total external debt held by developing countries, which include upper-middle income countries like Thailand and lower-middle income countries like India and Bangladesh, fell around 3% to $8.97 trillion in 2022. Still, higher interest rates worldwide have expanded the debt burden. The 75 low-income countries were hit hard, paying a record $88.9 billion in debt-servicing costs in 2022, including $23.6 billion in interest. Their debt-servicing costs are expected to have increased around 50% in 2023 to $137.7 billion and will remain high at $122.9 billion in 2024. The world's emerging and developing countries are expected grow 3.9% in 2024, over a percentage point slower than the average over the past decade. The World Bank warns that inflation and high interest rates are weighing on economic activity. This poses risks for the broader global economy as well. The slight acceleration among advanced economies "will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025," the International Monetary Fund said in its World Economic Outlook report in April. Click here to read…
China accounts for half of Japan's chipmaking equipment exports
At least 50% of Japan's exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment went to China for a third straight quarter in the three months through March, amid an apparent surge in demand for less advanced gear spurred by U.S.-led trade restrictions. Japanese trade data shows China accounting for half the shipments of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, components for this machinery as well as gear for making flat-panel displays. The value of these exports to China jumped 82% on the year in the March quarter to 521.2 billion yen ($3.32 billion), the highest figure in data going back to 2007. Japan last July began requiring approval from the trade ministry to send manufacturing equipment for cutting-edge semiconductors, such as 14-nanometer and more advanced logic chips, to destinations other than friendly countries. The surge in shipments to China results partly from a scramble to buy up equipment amid the curbs. The country imported $5.2 billion in chipmaking gear from the rest of the world last September, up by roughly half from a year earlier, Chinese customs data shows, with purchases from Japan and the Netherlands rising. But "the current trends can't be explained entirely by last-minute demand," said Yoshimasa Maruyama of SMBC Nikko Securities. Chinese government data shows monthly imports in this category continuing to rise year over year through April, hovering around $4 billion. Click here to read…
Russia Suspends Dollar, Euro Trade on Flagship Stock Exchange
Russia halted trading in U.S. dollars, the euro and Hong Kong dollars on the country’s flagship stock exchange June 13 after the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions aimed at further tightening the screws on Moscow’s war machine. The Bank of Russia said trading sessions in the foreign-exchange, precious metals and derivative markets of the Moscow Stock Exchange with settlements in those currencies had been suspended due to U.S. sanctions. However, currency trading will continue in the over-the-counter market—when two parties engage directly without supervision from an exchange. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Moscow exchange and Russia’s central securities depository that provides bank account services, registration of over-the-counter trades, and liquidity management services. “We are increasing the risk for financial institutions dealing with Russia’s war economy and eliminating paths for evasion and diminishing Russia’s ability to benefit from access to foreign technology, equipment, software, and IT services,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement. Russia’s central bank said people could still buy and sell the currencies through Russian banks and that deposits remained secure. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in comments carried by Russian state news agency TASS that the central bank is able to ensure stability in all markets. Click here to read…
Forcibly displaced population doubles to 120 million over the past 10 years
One in 69 people worldwide remains forcibly displaced as a result of conflict, violence, persecution and human rights violations. At least 117.3 million people, or one in 69 individuals worldwide, remain forcibly displaced, according to a report released by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) today. Forced displacement as a result of conflict and violence, persecution and human rights violations, has continued to rise in the first four months of 2024 and is likely to have surpassed 120 million by the end of April 2024. Filippo Grandi, the UN high commissioner for refugees said, “Behind these stark and rising numbers lie countless human tragedies. That suffering must galvanise the international community to act urgently to tackle the root causes of forced displacement.” Of the 117.3 million forcibly displaced, 68.3 million are internally displaced within their own countries due to conflict or other crises, such as Gaza where the UN estimates about 75 percent of the population, or more than 1.7 million people have been displaced by Israel’s continuing assault. The number of refugees who crossed international borders, in 2023 rose by seven percent to 43.4 million. The increase is driven by displacement in Sudan and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and other regions. Click here to read…
China rebuffs Pakistan's Sharif on new BRI investment
Pakistani leader Shehbaz Sharif went to China hoping to land more big-ticket energy and infrastructure deals as his county reels from an economic crisis. While Sharif and his entourage of cabinet ministers met with President Xi Jinping and other top officials in Beijing, the group left nearly empty handed after finishing a five-day official visit this past weekend. That may be the new normal for Pakistan's leadership as China cools on the South Asian nation and its much-hyped $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of Beijing's globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative. "The Chinese have become wary of putting in more money since they know it is a financial black hole due to Pakistan's long-term poor economic circumstances," Jeremy Garlick, an associate professor of international relations at Prague University of Economics and Business, told Nikkei Asia. "China needs to maintain the facade that CPEC is working because it is supposed to be a key part of the BRI." Last month, Islamabad requested an additional $17 billion of China-funded energy and infrastructure projects following a key meeting of the body that decides on future CPEC investments. Before his trip, Sharif's first to China since taking office in March, Pakistani officials had claimed that an upgraded version of the multibillion-dollar agreement would be formally launched in Beijing. Click here to read…
Japan to enroll all foreign residents in national pension system
Japan is stepping up efforts to register all foreigners that have newly moved to the country in the public pension program by October, aiming to strengthen requirements and shore up a foundation for long-term social stability. There are over 3 million foreign nationals living in Japan, a number that is expected to keep rising. Enrollment in the pension program will create an economic foundation for foreign nationals to continue living in Japan in old age. Currently, people between the ages of 20 and 59 who reside in Japan are required to enroll in the national pension system regardless of nationality. People who move to Japan from abroad receive an explanation of the enrollment procedures when they register their address at a local government office, but some fail to enroll despite the requirement. Expatriate workers in Japan are also required to participate in the public pension system. For countries that signed social security agreements with Japan, like the U.S., China and South Korea, foreigners planning to work in Japan for five years or less are exempted in principle. That contingent will continue to pay public pension premiums in their home countries. According to a 2019 survey, the proportion of foreigners living in Japan who are not enrolled was 4.4%, far higher than the 0.1% of Japanese people in the same age group. Click here to read…
G-7 to use $50 billion in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine
The leaders of the Group of Seven advanced nations agreed to use frozen Russian assets to raise $50 billion (7.85 trillion yen) by the end of the year for Ukraine to help it fight invading Russian forces. In a June 14 statement adopted at their meeting here in southern Italy, the leaders also agreed to act as one in combatting China’s strategy of flooding global markets with cheap goods as well as establishing safety protocols in artificial intelligence (AI). The statement expressed serious concern about China’s unwillingness to join international sanctions against Russia. In an effort to further prevent Russia from evading sanctions, the statement included punitive measures against China and third-country entities over their stand on the issue. The G-7 leaders also condemned North Korea for exporting ballistic missiles to Russia. On June 13, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met separately with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who attended the summit. They exchanged documents on bilateral cooperation that included the provision of nonlethal defense equipment and treatment of injured soldiers. At the meeting, Kishida pledged that Japan would “continue to strongly support Ukraine.” Kishida also conveyed his intention to host an international meeting in fall 2025 on ways to help Ukraine with landmine clearance. Click here to read…
Japanese economy is shrinking, although slightly less than previously thought
The Japanese economy shrank at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter of this year, slightly better than the initial estimate at a 2.0% contraction, according to revised government data June 10. The revision was due to private sector investments, at minus 0.4%, up from the previous minus 0.5%. Seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product, or GDP, a measure of the value of a nation’s products and services, remained in negative territory, as exports and consumption declined from the previous quarter. Quarter-to-quarter, the economy slipped 0.5% in the January-March period, according to the Cabinet Office, unchanged from last month’s results. The annual rate measures what would have happened if the quarterly rate lasted a year. Wage growth has been slow, and prices on imports have risen amid a decline in the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. The dollar is trading at nearly 157 yen lately, up from about 140 yen a year ago. The weak yen has tourism booming. But it makes imports more expensive, a sore point for a nation that imports almost all its energy. Sluggish consumer spending has also been a drag on the economy. Private consumption accounts for half of Japanese economic activity. Another negative is the ongoing scandal involving improper vehicle model tests at several major automakers, including Toyota Motor Corp., which form the pillars of Japan’s brand power. Production was halted on some models. Click here to read…
U.S. ambassador urges Tokyo to help quickly replenish missile inventory
The United States needs Japan’s help to quickly replenish missile inventory as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue and Washington seeks to keep its deterrence credible in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. ambassador to Japan said June 10. “It is clear that the United States military industrial base cannot meet all the strategic challenges that we have and obligations we have,” Ambassador Rahm Emanuel said. He spoke as Japan and the U.S. held their first talks to accelerate military industrial cooperation, two months after an April agreement between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden. “The goal here is not more meetings. The goal is production,” Emanuel said, adding: “Those who want to do harm to the United States are not going to wait for our industrial capacity to build itself up.” The ambassador said China’s shipbuilding capacity will surpass the U.S. and that repairs in Japan of U.S. Navy ships and Air Force aircraft deployed in the region can free up U.S. industrial capacity to focus on building new ships. This week’s talks in Tokyo are between U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante and his Japanese counterpart, Masaki Fukasawa, head of the Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency. Click here to read…
EU wants to keep Russia-Ukraine gas transit – Bloomberg
European Union officials are trying to negotiate the continued use of Ukraine’s natural gas transit infrastructure after its contract with Russia’s Gazprom expires at the end of the year, Bloomberg reported on June 10. Regardless of the conflict between Kiev and Moscow, Gazprom has continued to honour the terms of its transit contract with Ukraine’s Naftogaz, delivering about 15 billion cubic meters of gas a year to Austria and Slovakia. According to Bloomberg, talks are still in the “early phase” and many of the details need to be sorted out. The EU would prefer to buy gas from Azerbaijan instead of Russia and have it delivered via Ukraine’s infrastructure. “I’m doing everything to find a solution [so] that the Ukrainian gas transportation system will continue to be operational because it’s a big asset and someone should be a customer,” Alexey Chernyshov, CEO of Naftogaz, told Bloomberg. “Otherwise, it’s loss generating.” Kiev would like to keep the revenue from gas transit, which amounted to $1 billion in 2021. Chernyshov has ruled out extending the current arrangement with Russia, however. Azerbaijan’s own pipeline to the EU is already at full capacity, and Baku does not have direct access to Kiev’s network. A potential deal might look like a swap, with Russia providing “Azeri” gas to the EU, while Azerbaijan sends “Russian” gas elsewhere, allowing the bloc to maintain its trade embargo against Moscow. Click here to read…
Africa to Get Only 2% of Global Clean Energy Investment
Global investment in renewables including electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency improvements and heat pumps will clock in at $2 trillion in the current year, twice the amount that will go into fossil fuels, the International Energy Agency has projected. This marks the second consecutive year when combined investment in renewable power and grids will surpass the amount spent on fossil fuels, having done so for the first time in 2023. This is an encouraging trend for a sector that has been struggling with high interest rates and Big Oil companies scaling back their clean energy investment targets. Still, the IEA has warned that there are major imbalances and shortfalls in energy investment flows in many parts of the world. To wit, the entire African continent is set to receive just $40 billion of that $2 trillion clean energy bounty, with another $70 billion flowing into fossil fuels. That’s far short of the $200 billion annual investment the continent needs through 2030 to achieve its climate goals. Africa spends just 1.2% of its GDP on energy investments, considerably lower than the global average of 1.8% of GDP. “Our tracking of energy spending suggests that around USD 110 billion is set to be invested in energy across Africa in 2024, of which nearly USD 70 billion to fossil fuel supply and power, with the remainder going to a range of clean energy technologies. Click here to read…
Afghanistan’s Taliban Reports $80 Million in Crude Oil Sales in 10 Days
Afghanistan has sold 150,000 tons (1.1 million barrels) of crude oil from the Amu Darya basin for more than $80 million over the past 10 days, with Beijing’s investment in the country beginning to bear fruit. On June 09, Humayun Afghan, the spokesperson for the Taliban's Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, revealed that the group had sold 130,000 tons of crude oil for $71.6 million before it successfully put up another 20,000 tons (146,000 barrels) of crude worth $10.5 million for bidding on the same day. This marks a reversal of fortunes for one of the Middle East’s most volatile regions with the country previously importing the 50,000 barrels of oil it consumes daily from neighbouring countries such as Iran and Uzbekistan. It all began a year ago when China’s Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co, or CAPEIC, signed a 25-year contract with Taliban authorities in Afghanistan. That contract requires CAPEIC to invest $150 million by the first year and a total of $540 million by 2026. So far, CAPEIC’s investment of $49 million in Afghanistan has helped boost the country's daily crude oil output to more than 1,100 metric tons (8,000 barrels per day), a volume that could increase significantly if the company is to fulfill its contract. Click here to read…
China’s Housing Market Woes Deepen Despite Stimulus
China’s broken housing market isn’t responding to some of the country’s boldest stimulus measures to date—at least not yet. The Chinese government has been stepping up support for housing and other industries in recent months as it tries to revitalize an economy that has continued to disappoint since the early days of the pandemic. But fresh data for May showed that businesses and consumers remain cautious. Home prices continue to fall at an accelerating rate, and fixed-asset investment and industrial production, while growing, lost some momentum. “China’s May economic data suggest that policymakers have a lot to do to sustain the fragile recovery,” Yao Wei, chief China economist at Société Générale, wrote in a client note on June 17. The worst pain is in the property sector, which has been struggling to deal with oversupply and weak buyer sentiment since 2021, when a multiyear housing boom ended. The market still doesn’t appear to have found a floor, even after Beijing rolled out its most aggressive stimulus measures so far in mid-May in hopes of restoring confidence. In major cities, new-home prices fell 4.3% in May compared with a year earlier, worse than a 3.5% decline in April, according to data released Monday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Prices in China’s second-hand home market tumbled 7.5%, compared with a 6.8% drop in April. Click here to read…
Can China’s Export Machine Run Without the West?
China’s exports are still going strong. That has created tension with the West and led to a new wave of tariffs on its electric vehicles. But it is also reshaping global trade. The question for Beijing is whether a pivot to the developing world will be enough to keep its export machine humming. China’s latest trade data released last week said a lot. Exports in May increased 7.6% from a year earlier in dollar terms, while imports rose 1.8%. The implosion of China’s housing market has dragged down domestic demand, so Beijing has revved up its export engine to drive growth. That has, however, caused much unease in Western capitals. The Biden administration has announced new tariffs of 100% on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on Chinese EV batteries and parts, which will come into effect in the coming months. On June 12, the European Commission unveiled new duties on Chinese EVs ranging from 17.4% to 38.1% following an anti-subsidy investigation. In a statement, it said that it found unfair subsidies throughout the entire Chinese EV value chain and that “the influx of subsidized Chinese imports at artificially low prices therefore presents a threat of clearly foreseeable and imminent injury to EU industry.” Some of the recent strong growth could be due to manufacturers trying to front-run potential trade restrictions. Click here to read…
Strategic
US plans to turn Taiwan Strait into ‘unmanned hellscape’ if China invades: top admiral
If mainland China invades Taiwan, it may face a large, lethal drone force meant to make its military “miserable”. At least that’s the plan, according to the top US admiral in the Pacific, who said the “hellscape” strategy is designed to distract China and buy the United States time to respond. “I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, told The Washington Post at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Shangri-La Dialogue Summit. In doing so, he said: “I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.” The plan involves launching thousands of unmanned systems, from surface vessels and submarines to aerial drones, to fight Chinese invading forces as soon as they begin to cross the Taiwan Strait, effectively acting as a kind of first line of defence. This type of strategy would require heavy investments in cheap, reliable drones, which the US has been doing with its Replicator initiative. Last year, the Department of Defence officially announced the program, which is a long-term plan to field thousands of autonomous systems. While progress on the ambitious plan has been relatively quiet, there have been some signs of movement. Click here to read…
China nuclear arsenal reached 500 warheads in 2024, says think tank
China likely increased its nuclear arsenal by 90 warheads to 500 in the 12 months to January 2024, an international security think tank said June 17, pointing out that Beijing is "expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country." The total number of warheads stockpiled for potential use among the five recognized nuclear powers of the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain plus the de facto nuclear states of India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel increased by nine to 9,585, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said. Including retired warheads, the overall nuclear inventories of the nine countries are projected to have dropped by 391 to 12,121, the think tank said in its annual report. "The number and types of nuclear weapons in development have increased as states deepen their reliance on nuclear deterrence," it added. Regarding China, the think tank said it could have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles, which can be used to deliver nuclear warheads, as either Russia or the United States by the turn of the decade, although its stockpile of warheads is still expected to remain much smaller than the two nuclear powers. North Korea was estimated to have now assembled around 50 warheads, up 20 from 2023, and possesses enough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads, it said. Click here to read…
U.S., Japan, South Korea to launch trilateral coordination body this year
The U.S., Japan and South Korea will decide on the location, size and functions of a planned permanent body to oversee trilateral diplomatic cooperation when vice foreign ministers meet later this year, U.S. State Department officials said June 10. The three partners have agreed to create "a body that coordinates all of the different strands of the trilateral engagement," an official said in a press briefing about a May 31 meeting among U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Masataka Okano and South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun. The informal meeting was held at Campbell's personal retreat in Rappahannock County, Virginia. The three diplomats discussed regional and global affairs, China, partnering with the Global South, the economy and technology, and the next steps to take together. The engagement grows and deepens with every meeting, the official said. The strength of the trilateral relationship is "phenomenal" compared with four or five years ago, he said. When U.S. President Joe Biden met with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Camp David in August 2023, they agreed to hold trilateral meetings annually between ministers of foreign affairs, defense, finance and commerce, as well as among national security advisers. Click here to read…
Far-right makes significant gains in European parliament elections
Far-right parties have made significant gains in the EU elections, performing well in Germany and comfortably winning the vote in France, prompting Emmanuel Macron to call a snap parliamentary election. An initial projection by the European Parliament suggests that far-right and hard-right groups were on course to hold almost a quarter of the seats when the body next sits, up from a fifth in 2019. The French president shocked his allies on June 09 by calling a snap election for the National Assembly after exit polls gave France's Rassemblement National (RN) 33% of the vote, more than double the vote share of Macron's centrist alliance. "I've decided to give you back the choice," Macron said in an address from the Elysee Palace. As well as delivering a stinging blow to the domestic standing of the French president and to Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, the gains are expected to help tilt the European parliament toward a more anti-immigration and anti-green stance. Exit polls put the centre-right European People's Party on track to win 189 seats, leaving the Socialists and Democrats in second place with 135 seats, with the liberal Renew group on 80, holding on to third place. The Greens are set to be the biggest losers, falling from 71 seats in 2019 to 52, the estimates show. Click here to read…
Myanmar army is reportedly emptying villages in a western state to boost defences against rebels
Myanmar’s military has been emptying villages on the outskirts of the capital of the western state of Rakhine as part of an evident effort to defend against expected attacks by a powerful rebel group that has captured most of the surrounding area, according to residents, a local activist group and media reports on June 11. The action over the past few days to defend the state capital, Sittwe, came a week after the Arakan Army, the ethnic armed organization of the state’s Muslim Rohingya minority, vowed to capture the army outposts in the city. Rakhine is the current hotspot for fighting in Myanmar’s nationwide civil war, in which pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic minority armed forces battle the country’s military rulers, who took power in 2021 after the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. If the Arakan Army captures Sittwe, it would be the first state capital to fall to the rebel forces. Sittwe is also strategically important as its location offers easy access to the Bay of Bengal. The Arakan Army, which seeks autonomy from Myanmar’s central government, began a largely successful offensive in Rakhine — its home ground — about six months ago, gaining control of nine of 17 townships in Rakhine and one in adjacent Chin state. Click here to read…
China’s Premier Li is visiting New Zealand, where security fears vie with trade hopes on the agenda
China’s Premier Li Qiang arrived in New Zealand on June 13, beginning a rare visit to its closest partner among Western democracies, where a celebration of trade links is expected to vie with concerns about South Pacific security on Wellington’s agenda. China’s No. 2 official, Li is the first Chinese premier to visit New Zealand since a 2017 visit by Li Keqiang. He will also visit Australia and Malaysia; China’s Foreign Ministry said this week. The trip coincides with easing tensions between Australia and China that have vexed the relationship in recent years. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is expected to salute trade links with China in public statements this week. China is the South Pacific nation’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade worth 36 billion New Zealand dollars ($22 billion). They signed a bilateral free trade agreement in 2008 — China’s first with an Organization for Cooperation and Development nation — and the visit marks the 10th anniversary of a pledge to bolster ties signed in 2014 when China’s President Xi Jinping last visited Wellington. But while Luxon hailed the visit in remarks to reporters on June 10 as presenting renewed opportunities for business, Wellington has long sought to diversify the country’s export market away from dependence on China and the visit will not be a simple story of economic success as engagements with New Zealand leaders have sometimes been before. Click here to read…
Armed conflicts hit post-WWII record in 2023
More armed conflicts took place in 2023 than in any other year since the end of World War II, a new study has found. The Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) said 59 armed conflicts took place worldwide last year, led by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Twenty-eight of the conflicts were in Africa, followed by Asia with 17 and the Middle East with 10. Just three conflicts were recorded in Europe and a single example in the Americas. Although the number of conflicts grew last year, the number of countries that experienced conflicts declined from 39 in 2022 to 34. The increase in the number of conflicts can partially be attributed to the spread of ISIL (ISIS) across Asia and the Middle East and the involvement in general of a growing number of non-state actors. That has made the work of NGOs only more difficult, the report said. “This development makes it increasingly difficult for actors like aid groups and civil society organisations to manoeuvre the conflict landscape and improve the lives of ordinary people,” said Siri Aas Rustad, PRIO researcher and the main author. According to data collected by Sweden’s Uppsala University from nongovernmental and international organisations, the number of deaths in combat halved last year to 122,000. Click here to read…
Israeli army announces daily ‘tactical pause’ in Gaza
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has revealed plans for pauses in its military operation for several hours each day in areas of southern Gaza, citing the need to allow humanitarian aid to be delivered to the Palestinians. According to a statement released on June 16, daily ‘tactical pauses’ will be carried out between 8:00am and 7:00pm along a road running from the Kerem Shalom crossing to the Salah al-Din Road, and then northward toward the Khan Younis area. The crossing has suffered from a bottleneck since Israeli ground troops moved into Rafah in early May despite condemnation from the US, UN, and other countries and international organizations. “This is an additional step in the humanitarian aid efforts that have been conducted by the IDF and COGAT since the beginning of the war,” the IDF said, adding that the first pause was made on June 15. The measure, which is being coordinated with the UN and international aid agencies, will be in effect until further notice, the IDF said. West Jerusalem launched a large-scale military operation in the Palestinian enclave in October last year, shortly after Hamas fighters conducted surprise attacks on villages in southern Israel, killing over 1,000 people and taking around 250 hostages back to Gaza. Over 37,200 Palestinians have been killed and nearly 85,000 have been injured since the conflict broke out, according to the Gaza health authorities. Click here to read…
Biden and Zelensky sign ‘10-year’ security deal
US President Joe Biden and Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky have signed a 10-year security agreement, under which Washington has pledged to continue to back Kiev in its conflict with Moscow. The deal was signed on the sidelines of the G7 summit in southern Italy on June 13. Under the agreement, the US has promised to “help deter and confront any future aggression against the territorial integrity” of Ukraine and to “support Ukraine’s efforts to win today’s war and deter future Russian military aggression.” “It is the policy of the United States to assist Ukraine in maintaining a credible defense and deterrence capability,” the text declares. Washington has pledged to support Kiev in numerous ways, including military aid, intelligence sharing, and economic assistance “A lasting peace for Ukraine must be underwritten by Ukraine’s own ability to defend itself now and to deter future aggression,” Biden told reporters after the signing ceremony. In a video address released on June 14 morning, Zelensky claimed the treaty elevates relations between the US and Ukraine “to the level of a true alliance.” He described the security deal as “the strongest agreement with America in all 33 years of our independence.” Since 2023, Ukraine has made similar pacts with individual NATO countries, including the UK, France and Germany. According to Zelensky, Kiev now has 17 security agreements with foreign backers, “with ten more in preparation.” Click here to read…
Putin names conditions for Ukraine peace talks
Ukraine must remove its troops from Russia’s new regions before any meaningful peace talks can begin, President Vladimir Putin has said. Moscow rejects Kiev’s claims of sovereignty over five formerly Ukrainian regions, four of which voted to join Russia in 2022. However, fighting continues in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions. Ukrainian troops must be removed from these territories, Putin said on June 14 at a meeting with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other senior Russian diplomats. “I stress: the entire territory of those regions as defined by their administrative borders at the time they joined Ukraine [in August 1991],” Putin stated. “Our side will order a ceasefire and start negotiations the minute Kiev declares that it is prepared to take this decision and starts actual withdrawal of troops from those regions, and also formally informs us that it no longer plans to join NATO,” the Russian leader pledged. Putin outlined the conditions after condemning Kiev’s Western backers for allegedly preventing it from holding peace talks with Moscow while accusing Russia of rejecting negotiations. “We are counting on Kiev to take such a decision on withdrawal, neutral status, and dialogue with Russia, on which the future existence of Ukraine depends, independently based on the current realities and guided by the true interests of the Ukrainian people and not at Western orders,” Putin stated. Click here to read…
Twelve states refuse to sign Zelensky ‘peace conference’ declaration
Twelve countries attending the Swiss-hosted Ukraine ‘peace conference’ have refused to sign the final communique. This is based on the list of countries that approved the document, RIA Novosti reported on June 16. According to the list, Armenia, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the UAE are among the states that did not sign the declaration, as well as four organizations, including the UN and OSCE. Meanwhile, 79 nations, including Hungary, Serbia, Argentina, Türkiye, and Georgia, as well as four international bodies, joined Ukraine in endorsing the document. The final communique has not yet been made public, but according to Reuters, citing a June 13 draft, it places the blame for the “war against Ukraine” on Russia, accusing it of causing “large-scale human suffering and destruction” and “creating risks and crises with global repercussions.” The document calls for Ukraine’s territorial integrity “within internationally recognized borders” to be respected – specifically, the restoration of Ukrainian control over the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, as well as access to seaports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The document also demands the release of all prisoners of war through a “complete exchange,” and the return of “deported and unlawfully displaced” Ukrainian children. Click here to read…
UN Security Council endorses US-sponsored Gaza ceasefire resolution
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has adopted a resolution endorsing a US-backed ceasefire proposal that aims to end Israel’s eight-month assault on Gaza. The vote on the United States-sponsored resolution on June 10 was 14-0, with Russia abstaining. The resolution welcomes a three-phase ceasefire proposal announced by US President Joe Biden last month, which calls for an initial six-week ceasefire and the exchange of some Israeli captives held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. The second phase would include a permanent ceasefire and the release of the remaining captives. The third phase would involve a reconstruction effort for the devastated Gaza Strip. The US says Israel has accepted the proposal, although some Israeli officials have since promised to continue the war until the elimination of Hamas, the Palestinian group that governs Gaza. The resolution calls on Hamas, which initially said it viewed the proposal “positively”, to accept the three-phase plan. It urges Israel and Hamas “to fully implement its terms without delay and without condition”. Hamas was quick to welcome the resolution on June 10. In a statement after the vote, Hamas said it was ready to cooperate with mediators and enter indirect negotiations over the implementation of the principles of the agreement. Click here to read…
Cyril Ramaphosa re-elected South African president after ANC, DA reach deal
Cyril Ramaphosa has been re-elected as South Africa’s president for a second term after his party struck a last-minute deal with political rivals. Ramaphosa’s African National Congress, which came to power in 1994 after waging a decades-long battle against apartheid, lost its majority for the first time in an election last month and spent two weeks locked in intensive behind-the-scenes talks with other parties. As the newly elected parliament convened on June 14, Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen said his white-led main opposition party formally signed a governing agreement with the ANC and part of it would make Ramaphosa president. In a secret ballot hours later during a marathon parliamentary session, Ramaphosa secured his second term with the help of lawmakers from the DA and some smaller parties. The 71-year-old was re-elected by fellow MPs with 283 votes, seeing off a surprise challenge by Julius Malema, the firebrand leader of the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), whose candidacy gained 44 votes. Ramaphosa called the deal a “new birth, a new era for our country” and said it was time for parties “to overcome their differences and to work together”. “This is what we shall do and this is what I am committed to achieve as the president,” added Ramaphosa. Click here to read…
How an Iranian-Backed Militia Ties Down U.S. Naval Forces in the Red Sea
It was just after 9 p.m. when radar operators aboard this U.S. Navy destroyer in the Red Sea spotted a tiny arrow on their screens: a missile hurtling toward them at five times the speed of sound. The crew of the warship with 300 sailors aboard had just seconds to shoot it down. As the projectile closed in, the Laboon launched an interceptor from silos beneath its deck, destroying the incoming missile in flight. The Jan. 9 attack came amid one of the largest maritime battles the U.S. has faced since World War II. Houthi rebels in Yemen that day launched 18 drones and cruise missiles, along with the ballistic missile, at the Laboon and three other American destroyers, a U.S. aircraft carrier and a British warship in an attack that unfolded over a dozen hours. Since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have lobbed missiles, drones and other weapons at commercial vessels and warships nearly every day. Although most of the weapons have been shot down, at least 77 cargo ships have been hit, and one British-owned ship carrying 20,000 tons of fertilizer aboard was sunk. Though largely ineffective, the Houthi attacks have been able to disrupt shipping and keep the U.S. and its allies tied down, frustrating the Navy’s decades-old mission of keeping open the region’s critical sea lanes. The attacks are the direct result of fateful geography. Click here to read…
Russian submarine deployment to Cuba worries Pentagon that Moscow will stalk US coasts
Russia’s deployment of a naval flotilla to Cuba was generally consistent with routine military posturing by Moscow – with one exceptional detail, according to America’s national security adviser. “There are elements of this one that are different, that are distinct,” US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One on June 12. “They have a submarine associated with this port visit that they have not had before.” The first deployment of a nuclear submarine to Cuba since the end of the Cold War has served not only as a message to the Biden administration of Moscow’s displeasure with continued US support for Ukraine, but also of its increasing ability to stalk US coastlines with stealth submersibles – a growing concern for the US military, multiple officials familiar with the matter told McClatchy and the Miami Herald. Just last month, the head of the US Northern Command warned Congress that Moscow could soon deploy 12 similarly advanced nuclear submarines split evenly between the Pacific and Atlantic, creating a “persistent conventional threat” to the United States. “The threat will only become more acute later in the decade,” US Air Force General Gregory Guillot said, once the Yasen-class submarines are regularly armed with hypersonic missiles capable of travelling many times the speed of sound. Click here to read…
Health
Pentagon not denying secret campaign to discredit Chinese vaccines
The US Defence Department did not deny a report accusing the Pentagon of orchestrating a secret campaign meant to discredit Chinese Covid-19 vaccines and suggested that the move was an attempt to counter “malign influence campaigns” run by Beijing. The department said on June 16, in response to a query about a Reuters report that the Pentagon tried to discredit the quality of Chinese face masks, test kits and the country’s Sinovac vaccine, that it conducts “a wide range of operations, including operations in the information environment (OIE), to counter adversary malign influence”. The report said the campaign to discredit the Chinese vaccine began in the spring of 2020 and expanded beyond Southeast Asia before it was terminated in mid-2021, several months into the administration of US President Joe Biden. It was within that time frame that Chinese officials suggested in social media posts and press conferences that Fort Detrick, a US Army facility that had a biological weapons programme from the 1940s through 1960s, should be investigated as a potential source of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19. The latest development on this front underscores how far Washington and Beijing were, and still are, from cooperation on efforts to end the pandemic that had by that point killed more than 4 million people worldwide. Click here to read…
South Africa reports second mpox death this week
A second person has died in South Africa this week from the viral infection mpox, says the health ministry, less than 24 hours after it announced the first death. Previously known as monkeypox, mpox is a viral illness transmitted through close contact with infected humans or animals, as well as via materials such as contaminated sheets. In July 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency, which lasted for 10 months. On June 13, South Africa’s government said the second person who died was a 38-year-old man. He was admitted to a hospital in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province with extensive lesions, headache, fatigue, oral ulcers, muscle pain and a sore throat. He tested positive for mpox on June 12. “The patient has unfortunately demised in KZN the same day his test results came back positive,” spokesperson for the national health department Foster Mohale said. The total number of laboratory-confirmed mpox cases stands at six in the country, with two deaths since the first case was recorded five weeks ago. On June 12, Health Minister Joe Phaahla had announced the first death, and four more infections. “One death is too many, especially from a preventable and manageable disease,” Phaahla said, urging those with suspected symptoms to seek medical attention and help trace contacts. Click here to read…
