Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s warm relations with China has caught the attention of the public not only in India but also abroad. The recent advances by him to court China have come at the time of intensification of strategic rivalry in the Indo-Pacific among major powers. Maldives growing closeness to China under Mohamed Muizzu alongside his unfavourable policies and postures towards India has raised serious questions on the trajectory of Maldives-India relationship. Persisting weak domestic governance, poor economic conditions, existential environmental threat to the country also put a question mark on President Muizzu’s stance towards India and thus it needs a careful analysis.

Rise of Maldives’ Pro-China Orientation

The roots of Maldives pro-China orientation dates back to 2013 when Abdul Yameen became the President of Maldives defeating incumbent Mohamed Nasheed who had cultivated close and cooperative relationship with India. Significantly, China’s diplomatic presence in Maldives is of recent origin after Beijing opened its embassy in Maldives only in 2011. Thereafter, it began to invest in the country aggressively especially in key infrastructure projects with a clear goal of deepening its ties with an immediate neighbour of India.

It was not a normal coincidence that the opposition party headed by Yameen came to power by accusing India of interfering in internal affairs of the country. When Nasheed sought shelter in the Indian Embassy to avoid arrest, Yameen’s hostility towards India aggravated further. China soon stepped in and used the opportunity to woo Yameen by making generous offers of assistance and support. The shift was not unusual with Yameen’s party also blaming the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) citing cultural interference for economic leverage and asserted the move towards China as the best option.

The year 2014 marked a significant shift in Maldives-China ties with the visit of President Xi Jinping to Maldives and promotion of his new project that subsequently came to be known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Maldives was soon included in the Chinese Maritime Silk Road project and there was a flow of developmental assistance from Beijing to the Yameen government. Prominently noticeable among them were the Male-China Friendship Bridge and Hulhumale housing project that reflected a sharp increase in visible Chinese presence. Xi also encouraged his people to visit this country and the number of Chinese tourists visiting Maldives ranked among the highest during that time.

Moreover, a Free Trade Agreement was signed by Maldives with China that focussed on fisheries and tourism sectors that are indispensable to Maldivian economy. Significantly, a key Maldivian political leader related to all these initiatives was the then Housing Minister Mohamed Muizzu, the current President, who oversaw several developmental projects under the Yameen government.

Muizzu Mission to Beijing

The 2023 election campaign of Mohamed Muizzu, reminiscent of 2013 elections, was based on accusing India of interfering in Maldives’ internal affairs and its sovereignty. The call for “India-out” campaign became the dominant theme as compared to the incumbent President Ibrahim Solih who was seen as pro-India. The “India-out” campaign was an outcome of former President Yameen's conviction in 2019 and it was leveraged through nationalist sentiments to gather support to the “India-out” narrative.

Importantly, Muizzi’s party also supported the storming of the stadium where a yoga programme was being organised by the Indian Embassy in Male in June 2022, describing it as an anti-Islam event. Meanwhile, pro-China sentiments were floated with former President Yameen contending that “Europe or the US don’t hand out parcels for development, it's only China that does that ''. Similar sentiments were shared by then Mayor of Male, Muizzi. During a meeting with China’s Communist Party officials, he had emphasized that his election would script a new chapter of strong ties with China.

With the election of Muizzu as the President of Maldives, his previous policy agenda as housing minister in Yemeen government and Mayor of Male that oversaw large loan roll outs and infrastructure projects under BRI were back on the table. In a significant move, President Muizzu made his first official visit to Türkiye rather than to the country’s time tested and traditional partner, India.

To signal his diplomatic orientation away from India, Muizzu made a well-publicized visit to China. Significantly, the visit came after the call for removal of Indian military presence from Maldives. India-Maldives relations got worse when derogatory remarks were made on the Indian Prime Minister by a few Maldivian ministers. In the meantime, Muizzu’s China visit led to signing of 20 agreements. Maldives also showcased an open inclination towards China by joining the three Chinese initiatives—Global Security Initiative (GSI), Global Development Initiative (GDI), and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). The Sino-Maldivian agreements were quite comprehensive and encompassed several areas of cooperation along with elevation of bilateral relations to strategic cooperative partnership. Soon after his visit, the first military agreement with China was curiously presented as non-military aid. However, like many other agreements attributed to China, the devil lies in the details, which are missing from the texts. President Muizzu requested Xi Jinping for easing of loan terms amidst mounting debt and offered the reclamation of land and the development of Uthuru Thila Falhu as a major agriculture park providing for self-sufficiency.

Implications for India

The domestic developments in Maldives along with growing ties with China is likely to have detrimental impact on India-Maldives cooperative relationship. The current level of aid from China is more than 25 percent of Maldives GDP and there are fresh roll-outs of new development projects. The biggest is the Ras Male Housing Project, a dream initiative of President Muizzu, built by Chinese assistance that attempts to solve the housing crisis and strengthen his political position.

The Uthuru Thila Falhu agriculture project has been given to China, where the development of a Coast Guard dockyard with Indian assistance was supposed to be constructed. Former President Nasheed has actually raised questions over the agriculture project calling it a military facility. This development comes at a time when India is reportedly developing a naval base in Lakshadweep. Maldives’ strategy, like many other small states, is seen as an act of balancing and extracting the maximum out of the India-China competition. However, Male’s visibly evident tilt towards Beijing has created an avoidable schism with New Delhi. The recent visit of President Muizzu to India to attend the Indian Prime Minister’s third term investiture ceremony for the third term seems to be an effort at damage limitation. Sooner than later, Muizzu may appreciate the importance of India to Maldivian economy and security. Indian government has displayed a mature response and is committed to assist Maldives in its developmental activities. The Neighbourhood First Policy of India should continue to guide India's engagement with Maldives, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown his deft diplomatic skill by inviting Maldivian President for his oath taking ceremony, despite the latter’s unfavourable diplomatic moves. The short-term challenges should not be made to hinder the long-term prospects for building a more cooperative and stable regional environment.

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