Since the missile exchange between Israel and Iran in April last, the tensions in the region had subsided though the war in Gaza was simmering. There was some hope that Israel and Hamas were nearing a deal on hostage release and ceasefire. The targeted assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh in the early hours of 31st July has again revived fears of a wider conflagration in the Middle East. Haniyeh was visiting Tehran to take part in the inauguration of President Pezeshkian. The assassination took place within 14 hours of the killing of Fouad Shukr, Hezbollah’s Deputy Commander in Beirut by an Israeli missile strike. There was an earlier missile attack on Majdal Shams in occupied Golan on 27th July in which 12 Druze children lost their lives. Israel acknowledged its involvement in Shukr’s killing, which was a retaliation against the killing of 12 Druze children. It has neither confirmed nor denied its role in Haniyeh’s assassination. Iran and Hamas leaders have blamed Israel and vowed revenge.

The killing of a guest on Iranian soil is deeply embarrassing to Iran. The Iranian Supreme Leader said that the ‘…Zionist regime martyred our beloved guest inside our house and made us mournful, but it paved the way for a harsh punishment to be imposed on it.’^[1] The IRGC statement has also mentioned the US’s role though indirectly. The statement mentioned ‘This terrorist attack was designed and implemented by the Zionist regime and supported by the criminal government of the United States.’ ^[2] The IRGC has vowed retribution for Haniyeh’s death, declaring that the Zionist regime would face severe consequences at ‘the appropriate time, place and manner’. ^[3] The statement added that the assassination was carried out with a short-range projectile.

The US Secretary of State Blinken Haniyeh’s assassination was ‘something we were not aware of or involved in.’ ^[4] Qatar’s Prime Minister said ‘How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?’ Haniyeh was based in Qatar, which has been playing a leading role in negotiations for the release of Israeli hostages since the events of 7th October.^[5]

The White House in initial comments sought to play down the impact, and said that it did not believe an escalation of tensions in the Middle east was ‘inevitable’ or ‘imminent’ following the assassination of Haniyeh.^[6] John Kirby, the spokesman of the US National Security Council referring to the hostage release deal said ‘We still believe the deal on the table is worth pursuing.’ ^[7] This, however, is difficult. According to Israeli media, an Israeli delegation that went to Cairo for negotiations on hostage release on 3rd August, returned the same day without any progress in talks.

The focus has shifted from negotiations to a sharp escalation in tensions in the region. In response to a question, President Biden said ‘I hope so. I don’t know.’ ^[8] According to a report in Israeli media, the US has said that Iran will attack Israel as soon as Monday, August 5, 2024. According to another report, the Iranian attack is expected to begin on Tisha B’Av, the day Jews lament the destruction of the first and second temples. This day will fall on August 12th this year. The attack coordinated with Hezbollah will end on 13th August. The US has dispatched a Carrier-based task force to the region along with additional jet fighters.

UN Security Council Debate

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on 31st July in the wake of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran. The representative of the State of Palestine condemned the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh – former Palestinian prime Minister and head of the Political Bureau of Hamas – as ‘the criminal breach’ of Iran’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.^[9] The Lebanese representative said Israel’s aggression reached ‘our capital, Beirut’. The Iranian delegation referring to Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh asserted that Iran ‘reserves its inherent right to self-defense, in accordance with international law.

The Israeli representative cited the hypocrisy displayed by the Council. He referred to the killing of 12 Druze children in the missile attack on Mazdal Shams and asked ‘Where were the condemnation of Hezbollah and their Iranian supplier for the butchery of these innocent children?’ He justified the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr as an exercise of its right to self-defense by Israel.

The US underscored Israel’s right to defend itself against attacks from Hezbollah and other terrorists. He added that the US was not involved in the apparent death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The Russian Federation condemned the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The Chinese representative condemned Haniyeh’s assassination and said that this was ‘a blatant attempt to sabotage peace efforts’. He added that, despite the adoption of Council Resolution 2735 (2024) ceasefire negotiations have not yet yielded results.

UNSC Resolution 2735

It may be mentioned that the Security Council had earlier adopted Resolution 2735 (2024) with 14 Votes in favour and Russia abstaining. The resolution was based on the US proposal of 31st May with a three-phase programme. The first phase involves a ceasefire, the release of hostages, the exchange of Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the return of Palestinians to their homes, including in the north. The second phase included a permanent end to hostilities, in exchange for the release of all other hostages still in Gaza, and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Phase three included the start of a multi-year reconstruction plan for Gaza. The statement also referred to ‘the vision of the two-State solution.’ The statement also stressed ‘the importance of unifying the Gaza Strip with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.’

The resolution 2735 remains unimplemented.

China in Gaza

China has tried to insert itself in the Gaza situation and assume a mediatory role. Hamas and the Palestinian Authority as well as 12 other Palestinian groups signed a ‘national unity’ agreement in Beijing on 22nd July 2024. The four main elements of the agreement are ‘the establishment of an interim national unity government, the formation of unified Palestinian leadership ahead of future elections, the free election of a new Palestinian National Council, and a general declaration of unity in the face of ongoing Israeli attacks.’ ^[10]

Israel’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Israel Katz in a statement on X strongly criticized the agreement signed in China by Hamas and Fatah ‘for joint control of Gaza after the war’. The statement mentioned that ‘In reality, this won’t happen because Hamas’s rule will be crushed, and Abbas will be watching Gaza from afar. Israel’s security will remain solely in Israel’s hands.’

Haniyeh was born in 1963 and was a close aide of Sheikh Yassin, the Hamas’s founder. He came to prominence following Hamas’s victory in the 2006 elections, when he was elected prime minister of the Palestinian Authority. However, there was a split between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, and the unity government was dismantled in 2007. ^[11] Haniyeh was dismissed by President Mahmoud Abbas. He took over as head of Hamas’s political wing after Khalid Mishal in 2017. He was designated as a ‘terrorist’ by the Trump Administration in 2018. ^[12]

Israel suffered Hamas’s brutal terror attack on 7th October. But widening the conflict has made its security situation more precarious while the Gazans have suffered more than 39,000 deaths and mass displacement of its people.

Haniyeh’s killing does not affect the military situation on the ground in Gaza. This is controlled by Sinwar. His elimination has only removed the pragmatic wing of the party from the equation. This makes a hostage deal more difficult. This does not restore ‘deterrence’ vis-à-vis Iran. The assassination of a guest on Iranian soil has placed Iran in a deeply embarrassing situation. As the Iranian statement in the Security Council mentioned, Israel was ‘also pursuing a political goal with this act’, ‘aiming to disrupt the first day of his country’s new government.’ ^[13] If hostilities break out in Lebanon, Israel will face a multi-front war. US Central Command General Michael Kurila is expected to arrive in Israel on Monday, 5th August for discussions with IDF. Jordan’s Foreign Minister Safadi called on the Iranian Prime Minister Pezeshkian with a message from the Jordanian King. The Iranian PM said that Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh was a big mistake that won’t go unanswered. ^[14] The situation is grim.

Endnotes

^[1] IRNA
^[2] Tehran Times, IRGC says Haniyeh assassinated with ‘short-range’ projectile, August 3, 2024
^[3] Tehran Times, IRGC says Haniyeh assassinated with ‘short-range’ projectile, August 3, 2024
^[4] Financial Times, Iran vows revenge as it accuses Israel of killing of Hamas political leader, August 1, 2024
^[5] Financial Times, Iran vows revenge as it accuses Israel of killing of Hamas political leader, August 1, 2024
^[6] Financial Times, Iran vows revenge as it accuses Israel of killing of Hamas political leader, August 1, 2024
^[7] Financial Times, Iran vows revenge as it accuses Israel of the killing of Hamas political leader, August 1, 2024
^[8] Jerusalem Post, Biden says he does not know if Iran will stand down on response threats, August 4, 2024
^[9] UN Press, Briefing Security Council in Wake of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh’s Killing in Tehran, Under-Secretary-General Calls for Regional De-escalation, SC/15782, 31 July 2014
^[10] Al Jazeera, Hamas and Fatah sign unity deal in Beijing aimed at Gaza governance, 23rd July 2024
^[11] Al Jazeera, Who was Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political chief killed in Iran, 31st July 2024
^[12] Al Jazeera, Who was Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political chief killed in Iran, 31st July 2024
^[13] UN Press, Briefing Security Council in Wake of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh’s Killing in Tehran, Under-Secretary-General Calls for Regional De-escalation, SC/15782, 31 July 2014
^[14]

(The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation. The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere, and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct). (The paper does not necessarily represent the organisational stance... More >>

Image Source: https://images.jpost.com/image/upload/q_auto/c_fill,g_faces:center,h_537,w_822/613224