The 28th July witnessed another presidential election marred by the allegations of large- scale fraud in Venezuela. Contrary to the predictions before the counting was over, the incumbent president from PSUV (the United Socialist Party of Venezuela) Nicolus’ Maduro, was declared winner by securing 51% votes as against 47% secured by his main opponent Edmundo González Urrutia. The opposition claimed that they had received results from more than 80% booths which showed Gonzalez winning by more than 73% and, as such, his lead was unassailable. This assumption gained further credence when, despite the call by the opposition and many countries in the region, the National Election Council (CNE) mandated to conduct the elections, refused to divulge more details and did not share the results from more than 30 polling booths. Nine member countries of the Organisation of American States (OAS) strongly raised their voice against the flawed election. Seven of them had to pay the cost of their criticism by being asked to close their embassies in Caracas. They are Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay. The other two which escaped the immediate Venezuelan reaction were Ecuador and Panama. Some more countries in the region are also likely to receive marching orders for their diplomatic establishments in Caracas. While Chile stated that it would not recognise the results unless they are verifiable, Uruguay called the whole process as an “open secret” and El Salvador claimed that what the world saw in Venezuela had “no other name than fraud”.

The EU and Columbia called for full transparency including detailed vote counting, its verification and independent audit as soon as possible. Expectedly, Venezuela’s ideological allies in the region and elsewhere, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras, Russia and China welcomed the results and were quick to congratulate Maduro, the ex-truck driver and trusted lieutenant of Hugo Chavez, the late charismatic leader of Venezuela. Brazil (the largest socialist country in the LAC) and Mexico have yet not given any clear reaction. Clarifying the stand of the USA on the elections, the Secretary of State Antony Blinken predictably recognised the opposition candidate Gonzalez as winner. The very next day, Vedant Patel, the Deputy Chief Spokesman in the State Office, declared that the US was “running out of patience” with Venezuela.

So far, President Maduro has refused to buzz. The opposition has taken to streets to protest the ‘sham’ election. The pro-government public, mainly consisting of the party cadres (called ‘Chavistas’ after the deceased firebrand President Chavez) and sympathisers, have also come out in support. The violent clashes between the two groups as well as the police action on the protesters from opposition has so far claimed more than 400 lives in Venezuela and increased the exodus from the - torn nation to neighbouring countries in search of livelihood in peaceful environment.

The root cause of this strife can be traced in the economic boom experienced by Venezuela after the oil boom of 1972-75 which quadrupled the country’s economy which was beginning to enjoy the discovery of huge oil and gas reserves on its shores. This particularly enriched the PDVSA (country’s largest petroleum company, in private sector) and persons directly or indirectly attached to it. But this also widened the chasm between the haves and the have nots. The successive governments of capitalist ideology grossly ignored to uplift the poor populace and the results of the boom did not percolate to the lower strata of the Venezuelan society. On one hand, while the soaring inflation had made it difficult for the common man to make both ends meet, on the other the sheer public display of wealth by the senior executives of the oil company and their kin by flying to Paris at drop of a hat just to enjoy a French dinner or the junior officials frequently flying to Miami for weekend shopping, angered the masses.

The time was opportune for Chavez’, riding on popular anti- establishment sentiments, to ascend to Miraflores (Presidential Palace) with a thumping majority in 1999 elections and nationalise the oil behemoth to much consternation of the capitalist opposition. The US, not prepared to have another socialist ‘fly’ on its nose, also started imposing export restrictions on Venezuelan crude (USA was the largest importer of Venezuelan crude till then) and other coercive means like export restrictions and sanctions over the head of the government and other high functionaries. Chavez responded with a tighter governance and sacking of almost one third of oil giant’s work force. This snow ball- effect resulted in steep rise in inflation and poverty as Venezuela was dependent on import of most of the commodities. Chavez’, and after him his successor Maduro, consolidated their grip on all pillars of democracy- National Assembly, judiciary and also the CNE (National Electoral Council, mandated to organise elections). How has the socialist government of Venezuela manipulated the elections will be clear from the fact that, during the last 24 years of PSUV governance, the CNE (which has five elected members for a term of seven years) had been dissolved and re-constituted by the Supreme Court and the National Assembly (both having ruling party members/sympathisers in majority) more than 12 times! Moreover, almost all the previous elections have clearly been flawed. The losing candidate of the last election and a consensus candidate from opposition for the recent election, Juan Gerardo Antonio Guaidó Márquez (popularly known as Juan Guaidó), having been barred last year, another consensus candidate Maria Corena Machado was also ‘disqualified’ resulting in opposition hurriedly fielding Gonzalez, a professor and comparatively less- known political figure.

Why is the USA adamant on ousting Maduro and company? Firstly, US does not want any inconvenient government in its neighbourhood. Therefore, it always tries for ‘regime change’ as is clear from the extraordinarily high number of coup d’état in the LAC region. Though it is another disturbing fact for the US that, despite its repeated attempts, the pink revolution has gripped the region in last few years. Related to this is the oil diplomacy. Venezuela, once the second largest producer of crude after the Saudi Arabia, has been relegated now to 25th position, courtesy the USA. Last year, in the wake of agreement between Maduro and Guido over the electoral process, US had eased some sanctions on Venezuela but they were re-imposed this year as Maduro, according to the opposition, backtracked from his promises.

Another related question is why is Maduro playing all the tricks up his sleeves to stick to the power despite the growing discontent among Venezuelans at large? The answer lies in the dictatorial mentality. A dictator is always caught up in the spiral of tightening grip on the country and increasing dissatisfaction/hate among the population. Secondly, the US has put a big bounty on the heads of Maduro, his Vice President and a dozen other political and military leaders. While Maduro carries a bounty of US$ 15 million on his head, his VP has $ 10 million and other share $25 million among them with a total $50 million as the entire group has been convicted in absentia by the US courts for charges ranging from drug trafficking and murder to money laundering. If he relinquishes the power, he will be caught and deported to US for serving life sentence as the US did in case of the president of Nicaragua few years ago. So, it has become a fight for existence for him and a fight for hegemony for the USA.

As regards India, we always had a very cordial relation with Venezuela irrespective of the type of government that rules in Caracas. In fact, during the time of the deceased President Chavez, ONGC Videsh Limited was granted two oil fields in Venezuela without going through the normal process of bidding. The Jamnagar refinery of Reliance has been regularly importing crude from Venezuela for processing. It was disrupted for a short while but this year again, USA has allowed the company to resume imports. OVL has also approached USA for a waiver.

The impasse on Venezuela can be broken only in two ways-either US makes a deal with Maduro to give him and his team a safe exit from Venezuela or to remove him in a coup. US is capable in both but given the history of its involvement in the region, the US of America would certainly be toying with the second option.

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