Economic
China to move finance and tech under direct party oversight
China's legislature is set to approve an administrative overhaul this week that would put public security, financial regulation and technology -- areas now handled by the state -- under direct Communist Party control. Officials in the State Council, China's cabinet, presented a finance and technology reform proposal to the National People's Congress on March 07. It will be officially approved March 10. The changes will further concentrate power in the hands of President Xi Jinping as the leader of the Communist Party. By tightening the party's control over a broader swath of government, Beijing seeks to ensure its financial system and supply chains, especially for semiconductors, are prepared for a Taiwan conflict and any Western sanctions that ensue. The proposed reforms will create a new Central Financial Work Commission taking over regulation of industries such as banking and insurance, along with some duties of the central bank. A new party-controlled commission will be formed to foster the development of the high-tech sector. Plans also include splitting off certain functions from the Ministry of Public Security, which is responsible for policing, and the Ministry of State Security, which handles counterespionage, into a new internal affairs committee. Among other goals, these changes likely aim to help the party more effectively quash dissent online and get a clearer picture of domestic capital flows. Click here to read...
What does China’s ‘employment-first strategy’ mean for young jobseekers in an overcrowded labour pool?
Against the backdrop of China’s race to repair its economy, new Premier Li Qiang kicked off his premiership by vowing “continue to pursue an employment-first strategy” this year as Beijing’s new leadership line-up gears up to clear labour-market obstacles and create jobs for yet another record number of university graduates. During his first press conference on March 13 following the closing ceremony of the National People’s Congress (NPC), Li said Beijing would take multiple steps to stabilise and expand employment and offer more government support in employment services and technical training, especially for young people. “Employment is the cornerstone of people’s livelihood, but ultimately, the solution to job creation lies in economic growth,” Li said. Beijing has set a relatively ambitious job-creation target for this year – around 12 million. If achieved, that many new jobs would strongly underpin leadership’s modest economic growth target “around 5 per cent”, as outlined in a government work report last week. The bolder employment objective for 2023 – it had usually been set at 11 million over the past five years, excluding 2020 – contrasts with the safe gross domestic product (GDP) growth target, according to Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist at Natixis for the Asia-Pacific region. Click here to read...
China’s State Council institution reform plan approved
China's national legislature on March 10 approved a plan on reforming the institutions of the State Council, China's cabinet. With the institution reform, China would gradually establish a more unified, open market system with orderly competition, laying the institutional foundation for the country's ongoing push to build a unified national market, which is deemed key in accelerating the dual circulation development pattern, deputies and members said at the ongoing two sessions. It also marks the ninth round of State Council institutions' reform since the reform and opening-up, observers said. They stressed that the reform represents an important step in enhancing the capacity and efficiency of governance amid China's modernization drive, rebutting what some Western media hyped "a tightened government grip" over the market. After being approved by the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature, the implementation will be swift and generally divided into two steps. One of the focal points of the plan involves the restructuring of the Ministry of Science and Technology, setting up a new financial regulatory body and standardizing management of staff in financial departments, as well as setting up a national data bureau, which analysts said carries far-reaching ramification for China's social and economic development in the longer vision. Click here to read...
China to form data bureau to boost digital economy, facilitate data handling
China on March 07 said it will form a national data bureau, a move that experts said is a timely way to accelerate the nation's modernization in the new digital era. It's expected to facilitate regulations on cross-border data transfers in an efficient manner. China will establish a national data bureau, according to a reform plan submitted on March 07 to the national legislature for deliberation, the Xinhua News Agency reported. The proposed bureau will be administered by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's top economic planner, and it will be responsible for advancing the development of data-related fundamental institutions, coordinating the integration, sharing, development and application of data resources, and pushing forward the planning and building of a digital China, the digital economy and a digital society, among others. Certain functions of the Office of the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and the NDRC will be transferred to the new bureau, said the plan on reforming State Council institutions. The launch of the new agency adapts to social development amid the nation's push on the digital economy and strengthened oversight over data handling, Wang Peng, a research fellow at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on March 07. Click here to read...
China chooses continuity, retaining central bank chief, finance minister
China unexpectedly kept its central bank governor and finance minister in their posts at the annual session of the rubber-stamp parliament on March 12, prioritising continuity as economic challenges loom at home and abroad. President Xi Jinping, who has been installing allies in key roles in a government reshuffle as he begins a third five-year term, broke with convention to retain Yi Gang, 65, as governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and Liu Kun, 66, as finance minister. Both men have reached the official retirement age of 65. Across the slate of appointments, there were fewer changes than anticipated, with most cabinet ministers keeping their posts. However, further announcements are expected in coming weeks as China implements a reorganization of its financial regulatory structure and other government bodies. "Opting for continuity in these critical economic roles suggests an emphasis on credibility and stability," said Mattie Bekink, China director at the Economist Intelligence Corporate Network. "It is also perhaps a tacit acknowledgment of some of the challenges for Beijing at the moment," she said. "The real challenge for this third Xi administration is whether it will address structural imbalances in China’s economy and undertake reforms necessary to ensure China’s long-term competitiveness." The government has set a 2023 economic growth target of around 5%, up from 3% last year, which was among the weakest performances in decades. Click here to read...
Wall Street Braces for the Next Silicon Valley Bank
Investors were worried that the fastest interest-rate increases in decades meant that something in the economy might break. Last week, it did. Now, investors are asking: What else might crack? On March 10, Silicon Valley Bank was shut down after getting hit by a run on its deposits, the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. The fallout has jolted Wall Street, heightening fears that a year of rapidly tightening financial conditions is finally hitting home for the financial sector and beyond. The bank collapse, the largest since the 2008 financial crisis, helped send the S&P 500 down 3.3% over the final two trading days of the week. Traders began to speculate about what other fast-growing banks might be hurt and whether the troubles might encourage the Federal Reserve to pause, or even halt, its yearlong effort to slow inflation by raising interest rates. “I think this could be the first cockroach in the cellar,” said Fredric Russell, chief executive of Fredric E. Russell Investment Management Co. in Tulsa, Okla. “Banks get thrown into the dark pool of complacency, and then they lower their quality standards.” The crisis deepened on March 12 while also showing early glimmers of stabilization. Regulators took control of Signature Bank, a New York lender with $110 billion in assets, marking the third bank collapse in a week. Click here to read...
Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank rocks China’s tech start-ups, venture capital industry
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has created a sense of panic within China’s tech start-up and venture capital (VC) sector, as the lender served as a bridge between US capital and Chinese tech entrepreneurs. As of March 12 afternoon, topics related to the collapse of the bank, including “SVB bankruptcy has spread to multiple countries” and “SVB bankruptcy affects Chinese entrepreneurs”, were trending on Chinese microblogging site Weibo, with posts receiving hundreds of millions of views. “Is the 2008 Financial Crisis happening again?” said a Weibo user with the handle MaxC. While most tech companies and banks in China have avoided commenting publicly on the collapse, it has raised concerns among venture capitalists and start-ups in the country, many of which view the US-based bank as a golden opportunity to access the American capital market. “Many Chinese companies listed in the US have received investment from Silicon Valley venture capital funds in their early stage,” said Zheng Lei, an adjunct professor at the Shenzhen Finance Institute of the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He added that the collapse would affect the chances of unlisted Chinese start-ups obtaining investment from Silicon Valley VC funds. “The collapse of SVB has lowered the trust of Chinese companies in foreign banks, so they will be more cautious when considering US dollar funds,” said Fu Jian, director of Henan Zejin Law Firm. Click here to read...
Biden Declares U.S. Arctic Ocean Off Limits to New Oil and Gas Leasing
President Biden moved to block future oil and gas leasing in the Arctic Ocean’s federal waters, part of a sweeping plan to protect 16 million acres of land and water in Alaska. March 12’s announcement comes as the administration is preparing to approve the massive Willow oil-drilling project in the Alaskan Arctic over the objections of environmentalists and many Democrats who wanted the project scuttled, according to people familiar with the matter. The limits apply to future leases and wouldn’t stop ConocoPhillips’s Willow project from moving forward. The company has held key oil and gas leases in the region for years. The Interior Department said Mr. Biden had decided to make about 2.8 million acres in the Arctic’s Beaufort Sea off limits to future oil and gas leasing indefinitely. The move completes a years-long effort by Democrats to restrict fossil-fuel development in the U.S. Arctic Ocean, building on previous moves by then-President Barack Obama to block leasing in the Chukchi Sea and part of the Beaufort Sea. As part of the conservation plan, the administration will also move to issue new federal rules limiting oil and gas leasing on 13 million acres of Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve, and extend protections to key rivers and lakes in the state. Administration officials argued that the efforts will form a “firewall” against future oil and gas leasing in the Arctic and federal lands in Alaska’s North Slope. Click here to read...
With China in mind, G-7 to call for groupwide supply chains
The Group of Seven major economies will call for the creation of groupwide supply chains for strategically important goods to be included in their joint document issued at the May leaders summit in Hiroshima, Nikkei has learned. The idea is to expand various international supply chain arrangements being established individually by Japan and the U.S., and the U.S. and Europe, for example, to a cover the entire G-7. With China in mind, the project will aim for stable supplies of microchips, rare earths and other commodities that are increasingly important to economic security, grappling with such risks as a crisis in Taiwan or a prolonged Ukraine war. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has positioned economic security as a major agenda item at the G-7 Hiroshima summit, which he will chair. This will be the first time that economic security will be its own theme at such a summit. The members will begin work on the joint document this month. Japan, as the chair country, will begin to study the creation a groupwide supply network. It envisions a mechanism in which the G-7 designates certain goods essential for economic activity and forms materials and inventory networks for them. The G-7 first included language on "economic security" in the joint declaration at last year's summit in Germany. Regarding the creation of supply networks, it only evaluated the efforts of individual countries and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Click here to read...
U.S. And EU Look To Launch Trade Talks On Critical Minerals
The United States and the European Union could launch talks on critical materials trade when U.S. President Joe Biden welcomes European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the White House on March 10. The EU and the U.S. are in a spat over the subsidies in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which Europe fears could prompt European clean energy manufacturing companies to relocate to America to benefit from the $370 billion in tax credits and loans earmarked for clean energy in the IRA. The European Commission presented last month its own plan "to provide a more supportive environment for the scaling up of the EU's manufacturing capacity for the net-zero technologies and products required to meet Europe's ambitious climate targets." But both the United States and the EU seek to reduce their massive dependence on China for the supply of critical raw minerals and rare earth elements. During von der Leyen's visit to Washington D.C., the EU and the U.S. will discuss clean energy and talks could lead to the start of trade negotiations on critical minerals, as well as talks on transparency over government subsidies for green energy, U.S. officials told Reuters. "This is a deal that is really focused on critical minerals for electric vehicle batteries and battery supply chains”. Click here to read...
Chinese mutual funds suffer biggest net outflow in 31 months
Net cash outflows from Chinese-stock mutual funds have hit a two and a half year high as the market shifts from buying to profit-taking, with views divided on new measures announced at China's National People's Congress. Some in the market voiced concerns over President Xi Jinping's efforts to further strengthen the government, while others view the bolstering of cutting-edge industries such as semiconductors as an opportunity. Outflows from Chinese-stock mutual funds on a four-week average hit $970 million in the week of March 1, the highest total since August 2020, according to U.S. market research firm EPFR. Buying of Chinese stocks expanded after the beginning of the year, mainly among short-term investors such as Asian hedge funds, due to expectations that the economy would get back to normal faster than expected following the easing of the country's strict zero-COVID policies. In January, net stock purchases by foreigners through Hong Kong hit a record high for a single month, but the situation is now changing. At the center of the shift to selling are tech stocks. Share prices of China's leading information technology companies, including online retail giant Alibaba Group, second-ranked e-tailer JD.com and major food delivery app Meituan, have fallen about 20% across the board compared to the end of January. Click here to read...
Sri Lanka says IMF aid in reach after year of anger, hunger and fear
Nearly one year ago, Galle Face Green became the epicenter of a series of peaceful protests that ultimately brought down President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Now, Sri Lanka may be approaching another milestone, as the government says it is on the cusp of unlocking a provisionally agreed-upon $2.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. President Ranil Wickremesinghe on March 07 signaled that key creditor China had offered new assurances on Sri Lanka's debt -- seen as a key stumbling block toward winning the IMF assistance. "Last night we received a new letter from the China Exim Bank," Wickremesinghe said. Although it was not immediately clear what China had offered beyond a two-year moratorium seen as insufficient, the president said he expects an IMF green light "either in the third or fourth week of March." The government's hopes have been dashed before. But if the bailout comes through, it would be an anniversary gift of sorts for a nation that began to hit the streets in force in March 2022 to protest Rajapaksa's economic management. His policies were widely blamed for draining the country's foreign reserves and triggering the worst crisis since independence from Britain in 1948. Brutal inflation, daily blackouts and dire shortages of food, fuel and essential medicines drove the #OccupyGalleFace or "Gota go home!" movement, ultimately forcing a parade of resignations. Click here to read...
EU creating gas-buying cartel – Bloomberg
EU member states are moving towards joint gas-buying by launching the first tender next month, Bloomberg reported on March 07. The measure is aimed at reining in last year's surges in the price of gas, which occurred as a result of anti-Russia sanctions and of the EU policy of abandoning Russian energy. The bloc expects first contracts with suppliers from the US, the Middle East and Africa to be signed around June, according to the media outlet. “We clearly need to turn the economic tide in Europe,” European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic noted, adding that he believes that a new system “will increase competition and bring in new suppliers and push energy prices down.” After months of discussions on how to secure natural gas supplies, the EU will begin its joint gas purchases in April, with plans to conduct joint buying on a regular basis in the future, Bloomberg said. March 15 will see it launch registration on the energy platform for companies interested in buying gas and, in April, according to Sefcovic, the bloc plans to “open [the] window of the platform where companies present formally how much gas they will want to buy through the first tender.” According to him, about 50 international energy suppliers have expressed interest in selling gas to the EU via a special platform. Click here to read...
Japan’s workers eye bumper pay hike in closely watched union talks
Japan’s big companies are expected to deliver the largest pay rise in 26 years in next week’s “shunto” wage negotiations, offering policymakers hope the country might finally emerge from its deflationary doldrums. But the expected average salary hike of around 3% will likely include just a 1% increase in base pay, casting doubt on whether Japan can achieve the kind of sustained wage gains the central bank sees as key to stably hitting its 2% inflation target. The outcome of “shunto” wage talks with unions, many of which conclude on March 15, will be crucial to how soon the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could end its bond yield control policy under incoming governor Kazuo Ueda. It will also test Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s flagship “new capitalism” policy that aims to more widely distribute wealth among households by prodding firms to hike pay. Hopes are running high that Japan, which has seen wages stagnate for nearly three decades, will finally see change as companies face pressure to beat a labor crunch and compensate employees for inflation running well above the BOJ’s target. World’s largest car maker Toyota accepted a union demand for the biggest base salary growth in 20 years, while gaming giant Nintendo plans to lift base pay by 10%. Click here to read...
Central Banks Continue Gold Buying Spree
After charting the highest level of net gold purchases on record in 2022, central banks started out 2023 right where they left off. Central banks globally added another net 77 tons to their gold reserves in January, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council. It was a 192% month-on-month increase from December and above the 20-60 ton range of reported purchases we’ve seen over the last 10 consecutive months of net buying. A late report of a 45-ton gold purchase by Singapore in January bumped the numbers up from the initially reported 31 tons. The Central Bank of Turkey was the biggest buyer in 2022 and continued to add gold to its reserves with another 23-ton purchase in January. Turkey now holds 565 tons of gold. The country has been battling rampant inflation. Price inflation accelerated to as high as 85% last year and was at 64% in December. The Turkish lira depreciated by almost 30% last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira terms increased by 40% on an annual basis, according to Bloomberg. China reported another 14.9-ton increase in its gold reserves on top of the 62 tons reported between November and December 2022. The Chinese central bank accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then suddenly went silent until it resumed reporting in November 2022. Click here to read...
Strategic
New Chinese defense minister under Russia-linked US sanctions
China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) appointed General Li Shangfu, who has been sanctioned by the US for dealings with Russia, as the country’s new defense minister on March 12. In 2018, the US blacklisted Li as the then-head of the Equipment Development Department for “significant transactions” involving the transfer of Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems-related materiel from Russia to China. Li was born in 1958 in Chengdu, the capital of the southwestern Sichuan province. After graduating from a military university, he spent more than three decades at the Xichang spaceport, working first as a technician, and eventually becoming the launch site’s director. In the 2000s, he oversaw the launch of Chang’e 2, the country’s first lunar probe, and led China’s first anti-satellite missile test. In 2016, Li was appointed deputy commander of the recently established People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Command, a branch tasked with space and cyber warfare. Between 2017 and 2022, the general led China’s manned space program. During his tenure, Beijing ramped up activity in space, completing 55 successful orbital launches in 2021, surpassing the US and Russia. Li’s new appointment comes at a time of growing confrontation with the US and rising tensions over Taiwan. The simmering point of conflict flared up in 2022, when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei despite protests from Beijing. Click here to read...
China’s Model of a New Diplomacy Scores a Win With Iran-Saudi Deal
News that China brokered a Mideast diplomatic breakthrough offered the most tangible evidence to date that Beijing is willing to leverage its global influence to help resolve foreign disputes. In a statement issued along with China, rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran said March 10 they agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties that were severed in 2016. To propel the agreement, China hosted an unannounced four-day negotiating session between the Middle East adversaries in Beijing, where the parties pushed an agreement over the finish line. The surprise development puts Washington on notice that despite the U.S.’s historical role and military footprint in the Middle East, China is a rising economic and diplomatic force there, according to foreign-policy analysts. While Beijing has participated in past international talks—like efforts to compel both Iran and North Korea to halt their nuclear weapons programs—the latest deal added some substance to initiatives by Beijing that it says serve as a new model for conducting international relations. China drew closer to the oil-rich Middle East as it emerged as the world’s No. 1 energy importer, but its role is now much larger. While the U.S. remains the undisputed military power, aid provider and political influence across the region, China is the Middle East’s biggest trading partner with a fast-expanding role in investment and infrastructure construction. Click here to read...
About 100 Chinese Congress delegates chosen from U.S.-targeted companies
Companies targeted by U.S. sanctions are featuring prominently at the annual meeting of China's parliament that started March 06, underscoring Beijing's push for independent semiconductor and commodity supply chains. The "Two Sessions" of the National People's Congress and the advisory Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference bring together a total of about 5,150 delegates. This year, around 100 are executives or representatives from enterprises targeted by Washington or related businesses, according to a review of company social media posts and Chinese media reports. As usual, the makeup of the two bodies has undergone a reshuffle since the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress, which was held last autumn. Though China's constitution describes the NPC as the "highest state organ of power," it falls essentially under the party's control. While delegates have no real authority in their roles, being chosen is a sign of close ties to party leadership. A number of representatives hail from state-owned military-industrial companies, including: arms manufacturer China North Industries Group (Norinco); China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp.; and China Electronics Technology Group Corp., which handles IT services for the military, among other clients. Those companies, all of which have been targeted by U.S. sanctions, are considered key to the government's military-civil fusion policy on technology development. Tapping their leadership for parliamentary delegates is likely part of a push to accelerate the whole-of-country effort to make China a technological superpower. Click here to read...
China weighs 'emergency' fast track for laws as Taiwan tensions mount
China's parliament on March 08 began considering legislative changes that would slash the time needed to pass laws in emergencies, a move that observers see as preparing for scenarios like a conflict over Taiwan. Proposed amendments to the Legislation Law would let the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress put bills to a vote after just one meeting during an "emergency," shortening a process that usually takes half a year or more. The revisions are expected to pass March 13, the last day of the session, changing the law for the first time in eight years. This comes amid a string of legislation under Chinese President Xi Jinping that suggests preparations for a Taiwan crisis. A law allowing former military personnel to be quickly called up to the front lines went into effect this month. Revisions are underway for legislation like the National Defense Mobilization Law, to ensure that personnel and resources can be assembled and redeployed as needed in wartime. Legislation usually needs to go through three rounds of deliberation. The current law permits a vote after just two meetings when there is a "consensus in the main," or one meeting with a consensus on partial revisions to existing law. The proposed amendments do not specify how to determine what constitutes an emergency. Click here to read...
Australia expected to buy up to 5 Virginia class submarines as part of AUKUS--sources
Australia is expected to buy up to five U.S. Virginia class nuclear powered submarines in the 2030’s as part of a landmark defense agreement between Washington, Canberra and London, four U.S. officials said on March 08, in a deal that would present a new challenge to China. The agreement, known as the AUKUS pact, will have multiple stages with at least one U.S. submarine visiting Australian ports in the coming years and end in the late 2030’s with a new class of submarines being built with British designs and American technology, one of the officials said. U.S. President Joe Biden will host leaders of Australia and Britain in San Diego on March 13 to chart a way forward for provision of the nuclear-powered submarines and other high-tech weaponry to Australia. China has condemned the effort by the Western allies, who are seeking to counter China’s military buildup, pressure on Taiwan and increasingly muscular deployments in the contested South China Sea. Two of the officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that after the annual port visits, the United States would forward deploy some submarines in Western Australia by around 2027. In the early 2030’s, Australia would buy 3 Virginia class submarines and have the option to buy two more. Click here to read...
Japan, South Korea leaders to resume mutual diplomatic visits
The leaders of Japan and South Korea will revive the short-lived tradition of making regular reciprocal visits to each other’s nation for the first time in 12 years, according to a government source. At his March 9 news conference, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will visit Tokyo on March 16-17 for talks with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the latest sign that bilateral relations between the two countries are starting to rebound from their recent postwar low. The two leaders are expected to formally agree to resume the reciprocal visits during their meeting. A delegation of South Korean businessmen is expected to visit Japan at the same time for talks with their Japanese counterparts to discuss measures to promote youth exchanges between the two nations, possibly through a scholarship program for foreign students. The top-level diplomatic exchanges began in 2004 between Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun under an agreement where the leaders would make these reciprocal trips once a year. They continued for just under a decade, with the final one taking place in November 2012, when Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda met with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak. In 2017, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed to resume the visits, but it never happened. Click here to read...
Japan sets up ASEAN hotline to boost security communications
Japan has launched a hotline with ASEAN member states to make it easier and faster to communicate on security issues, becoming the first nonmember nation to do so, according to government sources. The move comes as the government works to strengthen its ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which comprises 10 countries, as China’s military activity grows and tensions rise in the South China Sea. The hotline, opened earlier this month, gives Tokyo the ability to contact ASEAN members either individually or all at once. These countries all fall in strategically important locations for maritime traffic and global trade. Japan has been working with ASEAN in the security arena, including training personnel, with the goal of achieving a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” a term for the diplomatic initiative advocating the observance of existing international rules and norms in the region. Japan’s annual defense white paper released in 2022 described bolstering defense cooperation with ASEAN as having great significance because it will lead to the “creation of a favorable security environment for Japan.” Click here to read...
N. Korea tests submarine-launched missile, Seoul confirms
North Korea said March 13 it has conducted submarine-launched cruise missile tests, days after its leader Kim Jong Un ordered his troops to be ready to repel its rivals’ “frantic war preparation moves.” The test on March 12 came a day before the U.S. and South Korean militaries begin large-scale joint military drills that North Korea views as a rehearsal for invasion. North Korea's official news outlet, the Korean Central News Agency, said Monday that the missile launches showed the North's resolve to respond with “overwhelming powerful forces” to the intensifying military maneuvers by the “the U.S. imperialists and the South Korean puppet forces.” KCNA also implied that the North aims to arm the cruise missiles tested with nuclear warheads. It said the missiles flew for more than two hours, drawing figure-eight-shaped patterns in waters off the country’s eastern coast, and hit targets 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) away. The missiles were fired from the 8.24 Yongung ship, KCNA said, referencing a submarine that North Korea has used to conduct all its known submarine-launched ballistic missile tests since 2016. March 12's actions were the North’s first underwater-launched missile tests since the country test-fired a weapon from a silo under an inland reservoir last October. Last May, the country test-launched a short-range ballistic missile from the same vessel. Click here to read...
Chinese think tank predicts when Ukraine conflict will end – Nikkei
A top Chinese think tank close to the nation’s armed forces has predicted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end before autumn of 2023, Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported on March 07, citing sources close to the Chinese government. Beijing considered the assessment solid enough to try to assume the role of a mediator in the standoff before it potentially ends, the media outlet claimed. The assessment was issued by the Academy of Military Sciences (AMS), a Beijing-based think tank that reports directly to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and regularly issues recommendations to China’s top military decision-making body. The AMS issued its appraisal of the conflict as early as in December, Nikkei said. The newspaper added that the think tank’s view that an end to the hostilities was likely relatively imminent prompted Beijing to take a more active role in seeking a resolution. The AMS forecast based on a military simulation of the ongoing conflict suggested that it would “draw to a close around summer 2023,” with Russia “having the upper hand,” Nikkei claimed, citing sources close to the Chinese government. The think tank believes that both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be hard pressed to sustain the hostilities past the summer. The AMS analysis prompted Beijing to come up with a peace proposal, the Nikkei claimed. Click here to read...
Pentagon seeks billions to replace depleted munitions – Bloomberg
The US Department of Defense plans to request more than $300 billion for weapons procurement and research and development efforts in the upcoming fiscal year, Bloomberg reported on March 11, citing confidential papers. The spending will reportedly focus on replacing the munitions sent to Kiev and enhancing the US’ ability to fight China. According to an internal budget document seen by the news outlet, the Pentagon is seeking a total of $170 billion for new arms. Of this sum, $76.8 billion is being requested for the Navy and Marines, $61 billion for the Air and Space Force, and $15.7 billion for the Army, the report says. In particular, the Department of Defense requested $400 million to acquire a new version of the Stinger air defense system, $199 million to purchase 541 Javelin anti-armor missiles, and $179 million to procure 28 additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Bloomberg reported. The US has provided all of these types of armaments to Kiev to aid it in its fight against Russia. The Pentagon also wants to boost its stock of long-range missiles, which would be critical in the event of a direct military confrontation with China, the report says. In addition, the Pentagon also reportedly requested $145 billion for research and development projects. Click here to read...
Is a fall in China’s military exports a sign of stockpiling at home?
A drop in China’s arms exports could signal military stockpiling in the country amid surging geopolitical tensions and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to analysts. New figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) compared China’s arms exports over the two most recent five-year periods. The data showed arms exports from 2018-2022 dropped by 23 per cent compared with 2013-2017. China’s overall share of global arms exports slipped from 6.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent during the same period, the think tank said in its report. Still, in 2018-2022, China surpassed Germany to become the world’s fourth biggest exporter of major arms, following the United States, Russia and France. The decline in arms exports from China could be a sign that Beijing was focusing more on domestic needs as geopolitical tensions rose, said Ni Lexiong, a professor at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. “The [geopolitical] environment around mainland China is deteriorating, including the Taiwan issue, the border issue with India and, more recently, Sino-Japanese relations,” Ni said. “China has to be ready for confrontations at all times.” China has joined a growing list of nations that have increased defence budgets, with a 7.2 per cent rise in its military expenditure – the fastest pace in four years – to about 1.55 trillion yuan (US$224.3 billion) for 2023. Click here to read...
How Russia Supplies Its War Machine
Western sanctions were supposed to strangle Russia’s economy after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A year later, though, it hasn’t ground to a halt. One big reason: The ability of the U.S. and its allies to dictate global trade flows in high-technology items like microchips has, so far, proven much less effective than many had assumed. While Russia-bound exports of semiconductors, machinery and other equipment from places like the U.S., the European Union and Japan have dropped sharply, firms in numerous sanctions-skeptical Asian and Middle Eastern jurisdictions—especially China, Turkey and Hong Kong—have stepped into the breach, selling their own equipment or reshipping foreign goods to Russia. Both Russian customs data provided to The Wall Street Journal by national-security nonprofit C4ADS and official data from China, Turkey and elsewhere demonstrate how quickly trade flows have reorganized after an initial dip in early 2022. For the U.S. and Europe, China in particular poses a huge dilemma. Further escalating technology sanctions and enforcement might succeed in curbing some chip and equipment flows. It might also simply push China to further increase assistance to Russia—including, potentially, of the lethal sort, which it has so far eschewed. Turkey, on the other hand, is a NATO member with veto power over key decisions like whether to admit Sweden and Finland to the military alliance. That limits U.S. and European leverage with the country on other matters. Click here to read...
Japan mulls drones to deter rising Chinese intrusions
Japan is mulling the use of drones for aerial interception missions as the cost of scrambling manned fighter aircraft becomes increasingly unsustainable amid intensified Chinese air incursions. This month, Nikkei reported that the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) are considering using drones instead of manned aircraft to intercept foreign aircraft that intrude into Japan’s airspace. The report says that Japan will this year start tests using drones to chase warships to gauge performance and functionality. If successful, drones will be tested against aircraft, the report says. Nikkei reports that sending manned fighters to intercept intruding aircraft costs 40 times more than a comparable drone-based interception mission. It also said that Japan is considering purchasing Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 or US MQ-9 Reaper drones for the task. The source mentions that Japan aims to send drones to identify intruding aircraft first, after which manned fighters will be scrambled if the aircraft is deemed a threat. Japan’s plan to use drones to intercept foreign aircraft is in response to China’s rising incursions. Asia Times noted in May 2022 that China’s aerial attrition strategy aims to inflict losses on Japan by forcing it to sustain a tempo of operations beyond its capabilities. However, this strategy can result in miscalculation and unintended escalation due to pilot and ground crew fatigue, aircraft losses via wear and tear, strained logistics and maintenance, and accidents. Click here to read...
China's Xi plans Russia visit as soon as next week: sources
Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to travel to Russia to meet his counterpart Vladimir Putin as soon as next week, people familiar with the matter said, which would be sooner than previously expected. Plans for a visit come as China has been offering to broker peace in Ukraine, an effort that has been met with skepticism in the West given Beijing's diplomatic support for Russia. Putin said last month that a Xi visit had been agreed, though the Kremlin chief gave no date for a possible visit. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that a visit to Moscow could take place in April or early May. China's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the possibility of Xi going to Moscow. When asked about the Reuters report, the Kremlin said it had nothing to say on the matter. "As a rule, announcements of official foreign visits are coordinated synchronously by mutual agreement of the parties," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow. "When there is such readiness, we will let you know." No other details were immediately available. The sources briefed on the matter declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the issue. Last month, Putin hosted China's top diplomat Wang Yi on a visit to Moscow. One source said that Wang's trip to Moscow was to help prepare for Xi's visit. Click here to read...
Turkey to hold presidential, parliamentary elections on May 14
Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan officially announced. “Our nation will go to the polls to elect its president and parliamentarians on May 14,” Erdogan said in a speech on March 10 after signing the election decision. The announcement was expected with Erdogan saying in a speech last week the Turkish nation would do “what is necessary” on the date now officially announced as Election Day. The elections could be the country’s most significant vote in decades, with Erdogan’s two-decade rule of Turkey at risk. The opposition has united around Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the second-biggest party in parliament, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). However, another prominent opposition leader, Meral Aksener, initially opposed Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy as prime minister, voicing her doubts last week as to whether the former bureaucrat, regarded by some as uncharismatic, could beat Erdogan. On March 06, Aksener announced her support for Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan, whose popularity has waned as Turkey’s economic crisis continues, has been accused of authoritarianism by his opponents. His government’s response to February’s devastating earthquakes in the southeast of Turkey, which killed more than 46,000 people and left hundreds of thousands living in tents or temporary accommodation, has also been criticised, although Erdogan has defended the government’s actions. Click here to read...
Health
Health experts outline protocol for downgraded COVID-19 era in Japan
Experts advising the government on COVID-19 recommend that people carry a mask with them when going out, alongside other measures they presented ahead of the government downgrading the disease to the same category as seasonal flu in May. The new set of actions, published March 8 by a group comprising Nobuhiko Okabe, director-general of the Kawasaki City Institute of Public Health, and 11 other colleagues, called on five basic measures for preventing infections while considering the protection of the elderly. These include if an individual is concerned about possible infection, they should stay home or see a doctor; taking a mask along when going out and putting it on as the need arises; avoiding places with large crowds and poor ventilation; routinely washing hands; and following a moderate exercise and a healthy diet plan. Another group of 15 experts, including Yoshihiro Takayama, who is a doctor at Okinawa Chubu Hospital in Okinawa Prefecture, called for “effective and sustainable responses” to COVID-19 on March 8. After assessing the existing measures taken at hospitals and facilities for seniors, the group also concluded that restricting visitations for patients or occupants and curbing staff workers’ movements were excessive in some respects. The group suggested that visitations should be permitted, pointing out the possibility that “restricting them would weaken patients or occupants physically, psychologically and socially.” Click here to read...
Malnutrition in mothers soars by 25 per cent in crisis-hit countries, putting women and newborn babies at risk – UNICEF
The number of pregnant and breastfeeding adolescent girls and women suffering from acute malnutrition has soared from 5.5 million to 6.9 million – or 25 per cent – since 2020 in 12 countries hardest hit by the global food and nutrition crisis, according to a new report released by UNICEF March 07. The 12 countries – including Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen – represent the epicentre of a global nutrition crisis that has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and ongoing drought, conflict, and instability in some countries. Undernourished and Overlooked: A Global Nutrition Crisis in Adolescent Girls and Women – issued ahead of International Women’s Day – warns that the ongoing crises, aggravated by ongoing gender inequality, are deepening a nutrition crisis among adolescent girls and women that had already shown little improvement in the last two decades. “The global hunger crisis is pushing millions of mothers and their children into hunger and severe malnutrition,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Without urgent action from the international community, the consequences could last for generations to come.” According to the report – an unprecedented and comprehensive look at the state of adolescent girls’ and women’s nutrition globally – more than one billion adolescent girls and women suffer from undernutrition (including underweight and short height), deficiencies in essential micronutrients, and anaemia, with devastating consequences for their lives and wellbeing. Click here to read...
