Economic

US population time bomb muddles economic race with China

The U.S. marked its slowest population growth since the Great Depression over the last decade, highlighting the demographic challenge the country will face in its rivalry with China as its citizens become older and less diverse. The U.S. population increased to more than 331 million in 2020, growing 7.4% from 10 years earlier, for the lowest recorded rise since 1940, according to the data released by the Census Bureau on April 26. The U.S. slowdown comes at a time when its supremacy on the world stage is facing a serious challenge from China. The winner of this race is likely to be determined by their economic strength, which directly benefits from population growth. The digital economy has been a boon to China, whose population of 1.4 billion gives it a significant edge in generating and collecting data -- an increasingly valuable economic resource that can be used to improve artificial intelligence and other technologies. But China is also aging rapidly as a side effect of its now-scrapped one-child policy. Its overall population is expected to start declining in the 2030s, while its working-age population has already begun to shrink.As the population ages, consumer spending suffers.
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Australia to spend $1.3bn on childcare, enticing women back to work

Australia's conservative government will increase childcare subsidies, officials said on May 02, in a pre-budget announcement that pledges A$1.7 billion ($1.31 billion) to boost female participation in the workplace. The promised spending comes ahead of a Federal election expected in the next 12 months and follows polls showing Prime Minister Scott Morrison's approval ratings have sunk, amid growing anger over allegations of sexual abuse, discrimination against women and misconduct in parliament.The spending targets families with more than one child in day-care, boosting subsidies for those with two or more children aged up to five years-old to a maximum 95% subsidy for their second and subsequent children. "Today's measures... are targeted, and they are an investment in making our economy stronger and boosting female working participation," Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told reporters in Canberra. Parents who "want to work an extra couple of days.. Right now, they have all of that additional income from their wage eaten up in additional childcare cost. This will remove that disincentive," he said.
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China adds teeth to crusade against food waste with new law

China enacted a wide-ranging law April 29 designed to reduce food waste in the country, including by imposing fines of up to 100,000 yuan ($15,500) on broadcasters and streaming services involved in content that promotes binge eating. The law, which answers President Xi Jinping's calls for greater awareness regarding food security, also targets China's restaurant scene. When eating out, Chinese hosts traditionally order more food rather than less as a way to show hospitality to their guests. Restaurants now are permitted to collect a garbage disposal fee from customers who leave large amounts of food on their plates. Supermarkets are instructed to manage foods approaching their expiration dates and sell them off in bulk. Restaurants in China's cities waste 17 million to 18 million tons of food a year, enough to feed 30 million to 50 million people, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and other institutions. One estimate suggests China could face a food shortage of about 130 million tons by 2025 as its farming population shrinks.
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Chinese regulators summon fintech giants including Tencent and ByteDance

Chinese authorities summoned 13 companies in the financial technology sector including Tencent Holdings and ByteDance for a "supervision interview" April 29 as Beijing looks to further tighten regulations on the sector following its crackdown against Ant Group. The aim of the interview, as in the case of Ant, was to prevent monopolies and the "disorderly expansion of capital," while also examining poor corporate governance, regulatory arbitrage and unfair competition, the authorities said. The companies summoned April 29, with large-scale operations and considerable influence in the sector; epitomize some of these problems, the People's Bank of China -- the country's central bank -- said in a release. While fintech companies have played an important role in improving the efficiency of financial services, the inclusiveness of the financial system and reducing transaction costs, the industry also has serious problems. Some financial services providers were operating without licenses, and some practices by the companies have caused unfair competition and violated consumer rights, regulators said. The authorities put forward seven rectification principles in the meeting with the companies, of which the first was that all financial activities must fall under regulatory supervision.
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Stop targeting China if you want it to support global trade reforms, WTO head tells world powers

World Trade Organization (WTO) Chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called on countries to stop targeting China if they want cooperation on global reforms, claiming that putting pressure on Beijing will only get “resistance.” The comments were made by the WTO chief on April 26 over continued efforts by the United States, European Union and Japan to get the international trade group to change the rules on government subsidies that the three claim has been used by China to give state-controlled companies an unfair advantage over foreign businesses. Speaking to a conference held by the European Commission, Okonjo-Iweala suggested targeting China only alienates it further. The proposal from the EU, the US and Japan would seek to close a loophole in the WTO rules that other nations have accused Beijing of exploiting for economic gain. However, to be passed by the WTO, it requires the unanimous support of all 164 members, including China.If it is passed, the core element of China’s economic model would be taken away, as countries claim it shouldn’t be able to benefit from measures for developing nations due to its prominence as one of the world’s largest economies.
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U.S. Says China Must Do More to Protect Intellectual Property

The U.S. criticized China’s protection of intellectual property on April 30, saying that measures Beijing adopted—some to comply with the 2020 U.S.-China trade deal—don’t go far enough. The Biden administration’s approach to China is still officially under review, but officials have made clear that they intend to continue or step up many of the Trump administration’s critiques of the world’s second-largest economy. The Chinese embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The protection of U.S. intellectual property was one of the key motivators behind the Trump administration’s trade war against Beijing, leading the U.S. to impose tariffs on most Chinese goods. Those levies remain in place after the nations reached a truce with a deal, signed in January 2020, under which China committed to legal changes.In its report ON April 30, the USTR said that those doing business in China had reported “some improvements to IP enforcement but uncertainty about the effectiveness of certain law changes” and that “longstanding problems such as bad-faith trademarks and counterfeiting persist.” The USTR also faulted China for new cybersecurity laws that it said were being abused to force companies to share intellectual property.
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Southeast Asia: Battlefield for local platform operators

A number of domestic platform operators are gathering in Southeast Asia to compete against each other in the belief that the region is the bridgehead to a global market. The average income per capita of Southeast Asian countries is about $4,400, but the region's market has great potential for growth as the size of the middle class is expected to increase to 200 million by 2025. In Jakarta, the capital Indonesia, annual income is now over $10,000 having soared recently and making it an attractive investment area for Korean firms. Platform operators Grab and Gojek that started in the local markets of Singapore and Indonesia, respectively, have already become eponymous "Super-Apps" in Southeast Asia based on massive populations with relatively equally high purchasing power. However, Korean firms ― riding the wave of Korean culture' increasing popularity there ― are seeking opportunities in "blue oceans" that have not yet been cultivated. Kakao Entertainment, a mass media and publishing company that owns KakaoPage and Kakao M, said it will launch a "webtoon" service in Taiwan and Thailand in June.
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Digital yuan will boost real economy via consumption with more application scenarios in China

The scope of the use of the digital yuan will be further expanded during this year's May 5 Shopping Festival, which will kick off on May 02. With digital yuan red envelopes, or consumption coupons, that will be handed out to consumers, analysts say digital yuan will help boost the real economy through growth in consumption. East China's Suzhou and Shanghai will give out red envelopes to consumers during the upcoming shopping festival, further diversifying its versatility. At present, six banks that will run trial digital yuan have connected with merchants and will together launch promotional activities, according to notices released by the commerce bureau of Shanghai municipality and Suzhou government last week. "The pilot has been a success so far, and there is no timetable for national rollout," said Li Bo, deputy governor of People's Bank of China (PBC), on April 18 at the Boao Forum. Li added that more trial runs will be carried out in more cities and the release of relevant laws and supervision mechanism is necessary before the national rollout.
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Biden set to propose tax hike on richest to aid families

US President Joe Biden will propose a tax hike on the investment gains of the wealthiest individuals to pay for his new plan to help US families, a top White House economist said on April 27. Biden this week is expected to lay out his $1.8 trillion ­American Families Plan that would provide national child care, paid family leave and free community college, using higher taxes on the rich to ­offset the hefty price tag. The increased levy on the profits earned from sales of stocks and other assets will only impact those earning $1 million a year, a narrow sliver of American taxpayers comprising 500,000 people, said Brian Deese, head of the White House National Economic Council. "This change will only apply to three-tenths of a percent of taxpayers, which is not the top 1 percent, it's not even the top one half of 1 percent," he told reporters, citing 2018 tax filing data. The change will help "to offset the long term cost of those investments by making reforms to our tax code that reward work and not just wealth," Deese said.
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Strategic

China adds carrier pier to Djibouti base, extending Indian Ocean reach

China has completed a pier large enough to accommodate an aircraft carrier at a naval base in the eastern African nation of Djibouti, which could potentially allow the country's navy to project power outside the traditional operating areas of the East and South China seas. The facility, China's first and only overseas military base, sits near the strategically important Bab-el-Mandeb Strait linking the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. It was built in 2017 as a naval "support facility" that Beijing said would be used as a base for anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia and responding to accidents at sea. "They have just expanded that by adding a significant pier that can support even their aircraft carriers in the future," Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander of the U.S. Africa Command, told the House Armed Services Committee last week. Beijing now has two carriers -- the Liaoning, which was refurbished from a warship purchased from Ukraine, and the homegrown Shandong -- with a third domestically developed carrier expected to enter service within the next few years.
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US Navy's mass retirement of vessels to dent Taiwan deterrence

The U.S. Navy will soon enter a brief period of vulnerability when its Cold War-era submarines and cruisers go into mass retirement before a more China-focused new batch of weapons can come into service. Especially notable is how a significant drop in the availability of vertical-launch missile tubes -- more than 600, or around 10% of the Navy's 6,000 or so Mark 41 launchers -- could weaken American deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. This could be why Adm. Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress last month that China could take action in the strait in the next six years. "We're reaching the end of the service life of the ships that were built at the end of the Cold War," Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, told Nikkei Asia. Ten to 14 vessels a year, focusing heavily on Ticonderoga-class cruisers and Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered fast attack submarines, will be retired during the 2022-24 period. But Shugart said the biggest loss will be when the first batch of nuclear-powered cruise missile submarines, designated SSGNs, enters into retirement in 2026.
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China's new nuclear submarine missiles expand range in US: analysts

China's newly commissioned nuclear-powered submarine is armed with the country's most powerful submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capable of hitting the US mainland, according to a military source and analysts. The Type 094A, or Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), was presented last Friday as part of the celebration to mark the 72nd anniversary of the PLA Navy. It was capable of firing the JL-3, or Julang (Big Wave) SLBM with a range over 10,000km (6,200 miles), a source close to the navy said. According to Forbes, before entering striking distance of the continental United States, the Type 094A subs would have to slip past a cordon of US military bases in the Pacific dubbed the first island chain ― exposing the subs to detection and attack by American P-8 anti-sub patrol planes, surface warships and other undersea reconnaissance capabilities.Chinese submarines have been dogged by the problem of being too noisy and easy to detect but that has largely been remedied in recent years by Chinese naval engineer Rear Admiral Ma Weiming, who is now taking the lead in a cutting-edge propulsion technology, according to state media.
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Fighting erupts in Myanmar near Thai border

Heavy fighting erupted at a Myanmar army outpost near the eastern border with Thailand early on April 27 in an area largely controlled by forces of a Karen ethnic army. The Karen National Union said it had captured the army position, in some of the most intense clashes since a Feb. 1 coup plunged Myanmar into crisis. The fighting also came days after Southeast Asian leaders said they had reached consensus with the junta on ending violence. Forces of the Karen National Union had taken the outpost at around 5 a.m. to 6 a.m., the group's head of foreign affairs, Padoh Saw Taw Nee, told Reuters. He said the camp had been occupied and burned down and that the group was still checking on deaths and casualties. The spokesman said there had been fighting in other locations too but did not give details. The Karen Information Center, a local media group, said the army base had been overrun. It said villagers had seen seven soldiers running away.Myanmar's army made no immediate comment.
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India and Russia agree on 2-plus-2, in diplomatic balancing act

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced April 28 that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to establish a two-plus-two meeting between the two nations' foreign and defence ministers. The move likely comes as a blow to U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, which has been encouraging India to move away from Russian defense equipment and instead increase interoperability with the U.S. and its allies. But analysts said that India was trying to balance its relationships -- perhaps avoiding being too reliant on the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue alone, as it counters China. The Quad -- the U.S., Japan, India and Australia -- has emerged as a major political platform for like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific. But India's traditional defense ties with Russia have held back deeper cooperation in the security field. India is Russia's largest customer of arms. India currently has three "two-plus-two" dialogues, with the U.S., Japan and Australia. The new version with Russia will be the first outside the Quad.
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‘No external forces are allowed to intervene’ says Beijing, after Canberra calls on allies to work together for Taiwan peace

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has issued a stern rebuke aimed at Canberra, after Australia’s minister of defense urged its allies to work together to ensure the dispute over Taiwan does not turn into a war. Speaking on April 26, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the turmoil over the fate of Taiwan has been caused by Taipei’s unwillingness to recognize the 1992 Consensus that embodied the One China principle, as well as its decision to align itself with external forces. In response to comments made by Canberra about Taiwan, the spokesman stated, “It is hoped that the Australian side will fully recognize the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, abide by the One China principle, be prudent in words and deeds, and refrain from sending any wrong signals to the separatist forces of Taiwanese independence.” Wang’s riposte comes after Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton said on April 25 that the chance of a conflict over Taiwan involving China “should not be discounted.” Taipei has been speaking of its increasing willingness to work with the US and other “like-minded countries” to deter China.
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Leaking of foreign minister’s private conversation was intended to spark ‘division’ in Iran, President Rouhani says

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that a private conversation involving the country’s foreign minister was leaked in order to disrupt the talks on Iran’s nuclear program and to stoke discord in Tehran. “The audio tape has been released by those who are against Iran, people of Iran and the interests of Iran at the exact juncture that [the negotiation] in Vienna is at the height of success, in order to create division in the country,” Rouhani said, as cited by Iran’s Tasnim news agency. Rouhani said that the opinions expressed by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in the leaked audio do not necessarily reflect his views and the views of his administration. He previously ordered the intelligence agencies to investigate the leak. The three-hour audio was taken from a longer conversation between Zarif and Iranian journalist and economist Saeed Laylaz that is said to have been recorded as part of an oral history project about Rouhani’s two terms in office. The leak happened ahead of Iran’s presidential election, which is scheduled for June. The New York Times quoted Zarif as saying in the recording: “I have sacrificed diplomacy for the military field rather than the field servicing diplomacy.”
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Clear-up operation starts in Qingdao, China after Liberian vessel spills 500 tons of oil

Chinese crews from 12 vessels have commenced an operation to clean up an oil spill after the cargo ship Sea Justice collided with Liberia-flagged tanker A Symphony on April 27, causing a spill. Officials in Shandong province said that 12 vessels were dispatched on April 28 to clear up what has been termed a “minor” oil spill. A source from the Shandong Maritime Safety Administration told Reuters that initial estimates suggest around 500 tons of oil – equivalent to 3,420 barrels – leaked into the Yellow Sea near the Chinese port city of Qingdao following the collision on April 27. On April 27, cargo vessel Sea Justice collided with the 272-meter-long tanker A Symphony, which was at anchor off Qingdao port. The collision was significant enough to cause a breach, releasing tons of bitumen mix into the sea. The Shandong Maritime Safety Administration said that the collision took place around 8:50am local time (12:50 GMT). Qingdao is one of China’s largest ports and most important crude oil refineries, currently accounting for around a quarter of China’s crude oil processing capacity. The city is one of China’s most northerly ports and sits on the Yellow Sea, which is shared with North Korea and South Korea.
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France’s Macron Eyes Artificial Intelligence to Monitor Terrorism

The government of French President Emmanuel Macron aims to deploy algorithms and other technology to monitor the web-browsing of terror suspects amid growing tensions over a group of retired generals who recently warned the country was sliding toward a civil war.On April 28, Prime Minister Jean Castex said the government plans to submit a bill to parliament seeking permanent authority to order telecommunications companies to monitor not just telephone data but also the full URLs of specific webpages their users visit in real time. Government algorithms would alert intelligence officials when certain criteria are met, such as an internet user visiting a specific sequence of pages. Mr. Macron has come under intense pressure to crack down on terrorism as well as Islamist separatism, an ideology his government says fuels attacks by radicalizing segments of France’s Muslim minority. “We’ve moved from an external threat, with highly murderous attacks on France in 2015, to a threat that is internal, and much more difficult to follow using traditional intelligence techniques,” French Interior Minister Gerard Darmanin said April 28.
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Biden to Steer Between Obama, Trump Policies on North Korea

The Biden administration intends to steer a middle course in negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs between former President Donald Trump’s top-level summitry and the Obama administration’s patient stance, U.S. officials said. The U.S. will retain the eventual goal of denuclearizing the country, the officials said in sharing the broad conclusions of a month-long review of policy toward Pyongyang. But it will pursue more graduated measures to roll back North Korean’s nuclear and missile arsenal. U.S. officials didn’t provide important details of their policy or negotiating strategy, including what the Biden administration would hope to accomplish in the first phase of an accord with Pyongyang and what economic sanctions it might ease in return. One lingering question is whether the Biden administration will insist that a new accord cover North Korea’s short-range missiles, which can strike Japan and South Korea, as well as long-range missiles that can strike the U.S.A demand to include the short-range missiles would be welcomed by Japan, whose prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, was the first foreign leader to meet with Mr. Biden in Washington after the inauguration.
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Death of Chad’s president in battle deals a blow to a French-led stabilization strategy in the Sahel region

When Chad’s self-styled warrior-president rushed to the front line last week to repel a rebel advance, he expected to quickly squash the insurrection and begin his sixth consecutive term as the awkward but indispensable autocratic ally of the West’s counterterrorism effort in the Sahel. But Idriss Déby’s unexpected death, from a bullet fired by a Libya-based rebel force, deals a blow to the France-led regional stabilization strategy and shows the mounting geopolitical complexity of the Sahel’s multiple insurgencies. Mr. Déby’s killing and its turbulent aftermath comes as Western powers have expanded their military footprint across the Sahel—the arid band of territory south of the Sahara that includes Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Burkina Faso—amid a surge in jihadist violence that has left more than 7,000 dead just last year. France, which has led the effort, has 5,000 troops across four nations as part of a campaign known as Operation Barkhane, which is based in the Chadian capital of N’Djamena. The U.S. has 1,000 troops and 10 bases including a drone base in northern Niger. Mr. Haftar’s faction hasn’t reacted to allegations it employed and equipped the Chadian rebels in Libya and didn’t respond to a request for comment on April 29.
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Taliban, Afghan forces clash as US hands over base

Fighting between Afghan government forces and the Taliban has left more than 100 insurgents dead in the past 24 hours, the defence ministry said on May 02 as it took control of a US military base in a restive province. The US military handed over Camp Antonik in the southern Helmand province to Afghan forces, a day after it formally began withdrawing its remaining troops from the country. The Taliban and government forces clashed across several provinces, the ministry said, including in the former insurgent bastion of Kandahar where the US military carried out a "precision strike" on May 02 as it began the final troop pullout. Another 52 Taliban fighters were wounded in the clashes, the ministry said, without giving details of any casualties suffered by government forces. The Taliban did not offer any comment on the fighting, but both sides are known to exaggerate casualties inflicted on the other. Fighting on the ground has continued unabated in recent months as peace efforts aimed at ending the 20-year conflict have faltered.
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Al-Qaeda vows ‘war on all fronts’ against US

Al-Qaeda has vowed to “wage war on all fronts” against the US unless it retreats from the entire Muslim world. Speaking just days ahead of the 10-year anniversary of the assassination of the group’s former leader Osama bin Laden, two of its operatives told CNN that it is planning a comeback in Afghanistan as the US withdraws. “The Americans are now defeated,” said Al-Qaeda. The terrorist group, now led by Ayman Zawahiri, has largely been eclipsed by Daesh in recent years in terms of attacks carried out and media exposure. As part of the withdrawal, the Taliban and the US have agreed in talks that the group will cut ties with Al-Qaeda. While its direct physical presence has declined since the death of Bin Laden on May 2, 2011, Zawahiri has overseen a diversification of its role in global jihadism. “Under Zawahiri’s stewardship, Al-Qaeda has become increasingly decentralised, with authority resting primarily in the hands of Al-Qaeda’s affiliate leaders,” according to a recent report from the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) think tank. The US has placed a $25 million bounty for Zawahiri, who features on its most-wanted-terrorist list.
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Medical

U.S. to start talks with WTO over lifting COVID-19 vaccine patents

The Biden administration said it will begin talks this week with the World Trade Organization over lifting intellectual property rights for coronavirus vaccines as activists and foreign leaders call on it to support a growing movement to waive concerned patents for the benefit of poorer nations. White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain told CBS's Face the Nation during a televised interview May 02 that Katherine Tai, the United States' top trade negotiator, will be headed to the WTO to open talks on "how we can get this vaccine more widely distributed, more widely licensed, more widely shared. "The announcement was made as pressure from activists, progressive politicians and foreign leaders mounts on the White House to support waiving pharmaceutical patents on vaccine production to allow poorer countries to make their own versions of the shot. Early last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told President Joe Biden in a phone call about a motion it brought before the WTO along with South Africa to waive certain trade provisions concerning vaccines, according to readout of the call from Modi's office.
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We'll need booster vaccine shots against Covid-19 variants ‘starting this fall,’ says Moderna CEO

The head of the vaccine-maker Moderna has said that people should receive additional doses of the vaccine starting this autumn – to better protect themselves from new Covid-19 mutations. Speaking to Yahoo Finance news website, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel was asked about the comments made by Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health in Rhode Island, who said last week that people may require additional annual booster shots against Covid-19 in the future. “I think we're going to need boosters starting this fall,” Bancel said. The Moderna chief said the research shows that “immunity is waning over time.” He argued that the second reason for a new injection is the new variants of the coronavirus. Your chance of being sick – if you got vaccinated in December 2020 or January 2021 – next fall is pretty high, if you get infected by a variant, not the ancestral strain for which the vaccine was designed. Bancel said that particularly vulnerable people, including those over 65, should get a booster shot. The CEO announced that Moderna will ramp up production to provide up to three billion doses of the vaccine adjusted for Covid-19 variants in 2022.
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Millions of children at risk from serious disease after Covid disrupts 60 mass immunization campaigns – UN health agencies

An alliance of international health agencies has warned that up to 228 million people, mostly children, are at risk from serious disease after the Covid pandemic derailed around 60 mass immunization campaigns in 50 countries. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the Gavi vaccines alliance and the World Health Organization (WHO) released a joint statement on April 26 warning that, “with 20 million children already missing out on critical vaccinations”, the pandemic has “made a bad situation worse”. Even before the pandemic, there were worrying signs that we were beginning to lose ground in the fight against preventable child illness, with 20 million children already missing out on critical vaccinations. The WHO survey of 135 countries found that at least 50 have suspended major immunization campaigns that cover around 228 million individuals, mostly young people in Africa. The delays have already had a real-world impact, with a measles outbreak occurring in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Pakistan and Yemen. Other life-threatening illnesses that are of great concern to the health agencies due to stalled immunization campaigns include diphtheria, polio and yellow fever.
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