Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 14 March 2022 - 20 March 2022

Economic

Ukraine invasion may lead to worldwide food crisis, warns UN

The world is facing a potential food crisis, with soaring prices and millions in danger of severe hunger, as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies of key staple crops, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned. Maximo Torero, the chief economist at the FAO, said food prices were already high before Russia invaded Ukraine, owing to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The additional strain of war could tip the global food system into disaster, he warned. “We were already having problems with food prices,” he told the Guardian in an interview. Wheat prices hit record highs in recent days, though they have fallen back slightly. Overall, food prices have been rising since the second half of 2020, according to the FAO, and reached an all-time high in February, after wheat and barley prices rose by nearly a third and rapeseed and sunflower oil by more than 60% during 2021. The price of urea, a key nitrogen fertiliser, has more than tripled in the past year, on rising energy prices. At least 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for 30% or more of their wheat supply, and many developing countries in northern Africa, Asia and the near east are among the most reliant. Poor countries are bearing the brunt of the price increases. Click here to read... [2]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is being felt as far away as U.S. farm fields

Russia is a major exporter of fertilizer, and economic sanctions are taking their products out of the market, sending fertilizer prices skyrocketing as farmers are getting ready to plant their fields. The economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are being felt all over the world, including in American farm fields. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions are hitting US farmers in a new way. Russia is a big exporter of fertilizer and its raw materials. The country's exports account for 18% of the world's potash market, 20% of ammonia sales and 15% of urea. Plus, a lot of the natural gas that is the most expensive part of making nitrogen fertilizers comes from Russia. And while the U.S. doesn't buy much fertilizer directly from Russia, other countries that do are now shopping among America's suppliers, and farmers says the prices are the highest ever. Even before sanctions, fertilizer prices were already high because of supply chain problems and natural disasters shutting down some big plants. Wheat, corn and soybean prices are also way up because of sanctions against Russia and the uncertainty of Ukraine's production and its inability to export. Farmers like Mark Scott say even if he gets better prices for corn and soybeans, it may not cover soaring fertilizer costs. Click here to read... [3]

Split opens in EU over Russia energy sanctions

Hungary’s top diplomat has indicated that his country will not support new economic sanctions on Russian energy firms, arguing the move could backfire. Peter Szijjarto also warned that no-fly zone proposals for Ukraine risk sparking a larger regional conflict. Speaking to reporters following a meeting with fellow European Union members in Brussels on March 21, the Hungarian foreign minister said Budapest is unlikely to back penalties targeting Russian gas and oil, as they are liable to harm its own interests. “Some countries are dependent on Russian energy supplies. We don't do this for fun. Energy supply is not a philosophical or ideological question, but a physical, mathematical one”. The FM’s comments follow reports that the EU would meet to consider an all-out embargo on Russian energy, though the body was “split” on the issue after March 21’s summit, according to Reuters. “The question of an oil embargo is not a question of whether we want or don't want [it], but a question of how much we depend on oil,” Berlin’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, told reporters, noting that some EU states cannot simply “stop the oil imports from one day to the other.” Click here to read... [4]

Berlin wants Trump-trashed trade deal back on table

Germany is calling for discussions about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the US, which were halted by former US President Donald Trump, to be revived. “We should resume negotiations on a transatlantic free trade agreement,” Christian Lindner, the finance minister of Europe’s number-one economy, told the German business newspaper Handelsblatt. “Especially now in the crisis, it is becoming clear how important free trade is with partners around the world who share our values.” Trump pulled the US out of discussions over the TTIP – which had been the subject of negotiations between Brussels and Washington since 2013, during the Obama administration – saying international trade agreements hurt US workers and damaged the country’s competitiveness. In recent years, there have been calls from a number of officials to restart the stalled talks, but others have been more cautious. The US Embassy in Berlin didn’t respond directly to Lindner’s proposal but stated that the existing US-EU Trade and Technology Council ensured that coordinated policies supported broad-based growth. “The current crisis shows the United States and Germany, and the European Union, are indispensable partners,” the statement reads. Click here to read... [5]

Asian majors keep Myanmar gas pumping despite EU sanctions

Asian energy companies' continued presence in Myanmar is raising concerns that they could blunt the impact of new European Union sanctions on the country's state oil and gas company. As the international community seeks to pressure Myanmar's military government, the EU announced late last month that it would ban its companies and individuals from providing funds to Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise, or MOGE, and freeze its assets within the bloc. TotalEnergies, a French multinational that has a stake in Myanmar's largest gas field at Yadana in the Andaman Sea, said in January it would exit the country within six months. American oil major Chevron is also considering pulling out. Asian companies, in contrast, have been more reluctant to abandon their interests in Myanmar. Posco International, the trading arm for South Korean steelmaker Posco, holds a 51% stake in the Shwe gas field off the western coast of Myanmar. Though much of the project's output is exported to China, some is used at power plants within Myanmar. Meanwhile, Thailand's PTT Exploration and Production on March 21 announced it would take over operations at the Yadana gas field from Total. The "Yadana project is a pivotal source of natural gas supply to the livelihood of the people in both Myanmar and Thailand," it said. Click here to read... [6]

What is Russia’s sanctions survival plan?

Among the many penalties imposed on the country over the past month, Russia’s financial system, energy exports, and forex reserves have been targeted. However, hard times call for prompt response measures, and Russia has come up with a few. Major Russian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT global financial messaging system, effectively denying them access to international markets. However, Russia can now accept electronic transfers via Mir, the Russian alternative payment system, and work with foreign banks and businesses, bypassing Western restrictions. Mir also provides an alternative to Visa and MasterCard, which have stopped providing international transaction services to Russian clients. Sanctions also targeted Russia’s holdings in euros and US dollars to deny the country the ability to trade internationally. However, Moscow is setting up trade mechanisms to enable national currency payments with foreign trade partners. In order to support the ruble, which has suffered a sharp decline against major currencies this month, Russian businesses that trade abroad have been ordered to sell 80% of their foreign currency earnings and convert them to rubles. It is expected to stabilize the national currency and encourage more investments in Russia instead of moving them abroad. Click here to read... [7]

China-Russia relations: border province calls for closer economic ties amid US criticism of ‘no-limits’ friendship

China’s northeastern province of Heilongjiang has called for deeper integration with neighbouring Russia, as Beijing comes under growing pressure from the West to distance itself from Moscow over the Ukraine war. Xu Qin, Communist Party chief of the rust belt province that borders Russia, said the China-Russia east route natural gas pipeline must be secured and construction of new branching lines sped up. “[We should] deepen practical energy cooperation between China and Russia, speed up the all-round opening up to Russia and make new contributions to ensuring national energy security and serving China-Russia strategic coordination,” Xu said, according to the official Heilongjiang Daily newspaper. He made the comments on March 20 during a visit to a gas transmission station in Heihe, a provincial city on the border with Russia’s Far East region. While visiting a land port linking Russia to the city, he urged local officials to “adapt to the new changes in trade between China and Russia”, as part of efforts to turn the city into a gateway for the Far East. Xu’s comments followed a virtual meeting between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden on March 18, where Washington warned of unspecified “consequences” awaiting Beijing for providing material support for Russia, which has come under heavy sanctions since it invaded Ukraine. Click here to read... [8]

China’s regulatory storm may soon subside for Big Tech firms after Xi Jinping’s right-hand man calls for order and transparency

More than a year after China’s technology industry was hit by a massive regulatory storm that upended business expansion plans and wiped trillions of dollars off stock markets from Hong Kong to New York, fears of more crackdowns could soon subside after President Xi Jinping’s top economic aide called for order and transparency in government dealings with Big Tech firms. Regulators must adopt a “standardised, transparent and predictable” approach in overseeing the nation’s internet services giants and the rectification of online platforms, Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He said on March 16 when he chaired a meeting of the country’s Financial Stability and Development Committee in Beijing. Liu also urged regulators to give a heads-up to financial authorities before any new policies get published. “Relevant departments should actively introduce policies that are favourable to the market” to help promote the industry’s development and global competitiveness, Liu said in an official statement of the meeting’s conclusions. Liu’s directives, which represent a subtle warning to regulators to stay on the same page, mark the first clear signal from Beijing that another tumultuous year of crackdowns is not on the cards for Big Tech companies in 2022. Click here to read... [9]

New US rule to require emission disclosures

Publicly traded US companies would be required to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and their approach to managing climate change risks under a proposed rule approved by Washington March 21. The measure, which now goes for public comment following a vote by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), follows similar steps by regulators in Japan and Europe, and aims to standardize emissions reporting. "Climate risks can pose significant financial risks to companies," said SEC Chair Gary Gensler, an appointee of President Joe Biden. Gensler argued the measure would provide "reliable information about climate risks to make informed investment decisions." Companies would be required to report emissions from their own activities, known as Scope 1, and indirect emissions from purchased energy, known as Scope 2. Firms would also need to disclose Scope 3 emissions, which are indirectly incurred in the value chain. These include energy sold to another company if these emissions are consequential to its finances or if they have set targets for these emissions. The rules would take effect between 2024 and 2026. Smaller firms would be exempt from the measure. Click here to read... [10]

Space companies invited to set up in ‘valley of satellites’ in China

The Chinese government is offering companies involved in the manufacture of spacecraft, rockets and satellites a hefty financial incentive to relocate to Wuhan, seeking to reinvent the city as a “valley of satellites” by 2025. Wuhan announced the official launch of its plans to turn the city into a $15.7 billion (100 billion yuan) space industry hub in a notice published on March 16, offering companies up to $7.88 million (50 million yuan) each in financial incentives should they choose to move their headquarters to the central Chinese location. China hopes to become a major space power by the end of the decade, with plans to launch clusters of commercial satellites capable of delivering high-speed internet, tracking commodity shipments, and other purposes. Companies that locally source more than 10% of the production of high-orbiting and low-orbiting satellites and spacecraft can receive up to $2.36 million (15 million yuan) in financial incentives, while those that use more than 30% local products stand to receive up to $7.88 million (50 million yuan). Wuhan wouldn’t be China’s first space-focused site, as last year saw Shenzhen dangle 300 million yuan in incentives for satellite development and related industries. Beijing also plans to construct a commercial spaceport at Hainan. Ningbo, a port city in Zhejiang province, is being developed as China’s fifth rocket launch site. Click here to read... [11]

Japan, Australia and India target Indo-Pacific supply-chain code

Trade chiefs from Japan, Australia and India agreed on March 15 to develop principles that will strengthen supply chains through better data management in the Indo-Pacific region. Koichi Hagiuda, Japan's minister for economy, trade and industry, met virtually with his counterparts Piyush Goyal from India and Dan Tehan of Australia. The three later issued a joint statement calling for "supply-chain principles" in the Indo-Pacific. The principles are due to be finalized next year. A key point to emerge from the meeting was that a stronger supply chain had become more crucial in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The supply chain principles will set forth standards to be followed in terms of sharing logistics and other data and for improving transparency. For example, governments would not be involved in data sharing. The three parties will consider whether to add a provision eliminating forced labor from the supply chain. The trade ministers decided to hold the trilateral meeting once a year. In 2023, Japan and India will serve as chairs of the Group of Seven and Group of 20 economies, respectively. Both countries seek to take the lead in the supply-chain debate. Click here to read... [12]

No longer a safe haven, once-mighty yen slumps

Even as the repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine roil the global economy, the yen has actually declined more than other major currencies, in a sign that it may be losing appeal as a safe bet in times of turmoil. The Japanese currency depreciated 2.6% against the dollar between March 7 and March 15, softening as far as the mid-118 range. After hovering around 114 to 115 yen to the greenback following the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, it began weakening faster last week amid the surge in prices for crude oil and other commodities. The yen ranked as one of the worst performers among major currencies over that period, alongside others from countries that rely heavily on imported resources, such as the Turkish lira and South Korea's won. Key to the currency's traditional appeal is Japan's position as the world's leading net creditor nation. Previously, the expectation that Japanese investors would flee to their home currency when market conditions got rough spurred traders elsewhere to do the same. The yen strengthened from the 106 range to beyond 88 against the dollar in the three months after the September 2008 financial crisis, and from around 83 yen to well beyond 80 following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. But there has been no sign of similar appreciation amid the Ukraine conflict. Click here to read... [13]

China Eastern Plane Crash Complicates Boeing’s China Relationship

The crash of a China Eastern Airlines Corp. 737-800 comes at a precarious time for Boeing Co. in China, with the plane maker working to revive its standing in the key aviation market after years navigating the fallout of the MAX crisis and a China-U. S. trade war. On March 21, a Boeing aircraft carrying 132 people suddenly fell from the sky, and rescuers on scene have yet to find any survivors among the plane’s debris. China Eastern Airlines grounded its entire fleet of 737-800 aircraft in response affecting some 224 in-service aircraft across the airline group, according to aviation consulting firm Cirium. For Boeing, the crash comes as it was closing in on the return to service in China of the 737 MAX—a different model to the aircraft in March 21’s crash. The aircraft’s fixes had been approved by China’s regulator with Boeing saying in January it was prepared to resume deliveries of the aircraft as early as the first quarter of this year. China has been an increasingly important market for Boeing as the country rapidly built up its aviation industry over the past three decades. The company has delivered 1,736 jets to China, according to Boeing’s own data, with 143 more on order. Boeing believes there is far more to come. Click here to read... [14]

Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia. The talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom, the people said. The Saudis are angry over the U.S.’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports. If priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency. The Saudis are also considering including yuan-denominated futures contracts, known as the petroyuan, in the pricing model of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. , known as Aramco. Click here to read... [15]

Clandestine Finance System Helped Iran Withstand Sanctions Crush, Documents Show

Iran established a clandestine banking and finance system to handle tens of billions of dollars in annual trade banned under U.S.-led sanctions, enabling Tehran to endure the economic siege and giving it leverage in multilateral nuclear talks, according to Western diplomats, intelligence officials and documents. The system, which comprises accounts in foreign commercial banks, proxy companies registered outside the country, firms that coordinate the banned trade, and a transaction clearinghouse within Iran, has helped Tehran resist the Biden administration’s pressure to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal, buying it time to advance its nuclear program even while negotiations were under way. Officials say they are closing in on a deal, with the release of two British women in recent days foreshadowing a potential agreement within days. Years of sanctions have hobbled Iran’s economy and caused its currency, the rial, to collapse. But the ability to boost trade roughly to pre-sanction levels has helped the economy rebound after three years of contraction, alleviating domestic political pressure and bolstering Tehran’s negotiating position, say the officials and some analysts. Iran’s success at circumventing trade and finance bans, apparent in trade data and confirmed by Western diplomats and intelligence officials, shows the limits of global financial sanctions at a time when the U.S. and European Union have sought to use their economic might to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

US watchers in Beijing urge closer look at Biden’s tough new ‘China hands’

President Joe Biden may have all pieces in place to “target” Beijing, Chinese experts on US affairs have warned, urging renewed understanding of a new crop of young, professional and “tough” White House “China hands”. Biden, who took office in January 2021, made it clear from the start that the “China threat” was a strategic policy priority, in a revival of the “pivot to Asia” under the Obama administration where he was vice-president. And while Washington could still be in the transition period for this strategic policy shift, the key institutional adjustments needed were nearing completion, warned Fan Jishe, a professo r at the Central Party School, the Chinese Communist Party’s top cadre-training and policy advice academy. The Biden administration’s new strategy to target China mainly focused on four areas, Fan said – building domestic consensus; stepping up diplomatic, military, economic alliances; institutionalising new policy directions; and fostering new talent. “Washington has basically completed forming consensus on what people think about China across political parties, think tanks, within the government and the public,” Fan told a seminar organised by the American Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, an official think tank. “The only group that is still not entirely aligned are the business interest groups … but they are now largely a silent group.” Click here to read... [17]

Russia, Ukraine at odds on meaning of 'neutral status'

Signs of a potential breakthrough showed up a bit amid the Ukraine crisis, as Russia claimed that the neutral status of Ukraine had been discussed in the latest round of bilateral talks. However, the two countries disagreed on the exact model of neutrality, with the Ukraine side saying that it had rejected Russia's proposal of Sweden's or Austria's neutrality, as the model must be "Ukrainian-style." Chinese experts viewed the contrary postures as a tussle between Russia and the US: Washington is attempting to make the negotiations last longer, which will cause more costs and losses for Russia, but also more bloodshed in Ukraine. According to the Financial Times, which cited three people close to the fourth round of bilateral negotiations, a 15-point peace plan has been drawn up by the two sides. The plan would involve Ukraine dropping its aspiration to join NATO and declaring neutrality, in return for a ceasefire and Russia's army withdrawing. Russia's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said on March 16 that Ukraine had proposed the Austrian and Swedish models of a "neutral and demilitarized state, albeit with its own army and navy," Russian media reported. However, the model was rejected by Ukrainian top negotiator Mikhailo Podolyak, as the model must have "legally verified security guarantees." Click here to read... [18]

Shadow of Iran oil failure looms over Japan's Sakhalin decision

Twelve years after leaving an oil field project in southwestern Iran under pressure from Washington, Japan finds itself in a familiar position, this time over an energy project in Russia's Far East. With 26 billion barrels, Iran's Azadegan oil field had one of the world's largest reserves. The government-funded Japan Oil Development Co. (now INPEX) acquired a 75% stake in the project in 2004, eager to develop an oil field that Japan had strong control over. Japan and Iran have historically had good relations. Even after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which kicked off a four-decade souring of U.S.-Iran ties, Tokyo and Tehran maintained diplomatic relations. As the U.S. and Europe slapped sanctions on Iran over its nuclear development, Japan stuck with the Azadegan project in the 2000s But in the end, the U.S. government made clear to Tokyo that if Japan continued to hold .its stake in Azadegan, it would be hit with sanctions. "We gave it up with a heavy heart," a senior official at the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI) recalled. Burned by the experience in Iran, Japan turned to Russia's Far East to reduce its energy dependence on the Persian Gulf. But in a twist of fate, Japan's stakes in the Sakhalin energy projects there are now under the spotlight. Click here to read... [19]

Russia scraps WW2 peace talks with Japan

Russia has ended an arrangement dating back to 1991 that allowed Japanese citizens to visit the Kuril Islands without a visa and has broken off talks with Japan on formally ending the Second World War, citing Tokyo’s “openly unfriendly” conduct in sanctioning Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine. Due to the what it called the “obvious unfriendly nature of the unilateral restrictions imposed by Japan against Russia in connection with the situation in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry announced on March 21 that it would “terminate” the visa-free regime and “does not intend to continue negotiations with Japan on a peace agreement.” Russia also withdrew from talks on establishing joint economic activities with Japan in the Southern Kuril Islands and will block Tokyo’s partner status in the Black Sea Economic Cooperation organization. “All responsibility for the damage to Japan’s bilateral cooperation and interests lies with official Tokyo, which deliberately opted for an anti-Russian course instead of developing mutually beneficial cooperation and good neighborliness,” the Foreign Ministry said. Japan joined the US-NATO economic embargo against Russia after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine last month. On March 16, it also revoked Russia’s “most favored nation” trade status. Click here to read... [20]

Over 3m flee Ukraine, stretching neighbors like Poland to limit

Over 3 million people have fled Ukraine since the Russian invasion, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said March 22, as the rapidly growing crisis tests international cooperation. More than 100,000 -- and sometimes over 200,000 -- refugees have left Ukraine daily since the war began Feb. 24. UNHCR describes the exodus as the "fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II" and predicts that 4 million or more ultimately will leave Ukraine. Around 60%, or over 1.8 million, have crossed the border into Poland. The country is temporarily housing refugees at train stations, hotels and sports facilities, and has let them ride public transportation for free. Hundreds have been sheltering at the central station in Warsaw, where volunteers are offering translation and other assistance to the refugees. But the station is nearing its limits, with long lines snaking around bathrooms and ticket counters. The provision of aid to Ukrainian refugees now falls disproportionately on a handful of countries and sharing this burden will be a challenge for Europe. Moldova has received over 300,000 -- equal to more than 10% of its entire population of 2.6 million. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who visited the country on March 19, said Germany will accept some of these refugees. Click here to read... [21]

Israel hit by ‘largest ever’ cyberattack – media

The websites of Israel’s interior, health, justice, and welfare ministries, as well as the prime minister’s office, were taken offline on March 21 in what a defense source claimed was the largest ever cyberattack against Israel. Authorities believe a state actor or large organization was responsible. Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported the cyber strike, citing a “defense establishment source” who claimed it to be the worst ever to hit the Jewish state. The attack reportedly targeted sites using the ‘gov.il’ domain, which serves all Israeli government websites except defense-related ones. Access to some of the affected sites was restored on March 21 night, but Israel’s defense establishment and the National Cyber Directorate have declared a state of emergency while websites of strategic importance – such as those related to the country’s water and power infrastructure – can be checked for signs of compromise. Israeli journalists have already speculated that Iran is to blame. Israel and Iran have for years traded cyberattacks, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hacked CCTV cameras and employee databases at the ports of Haifa and Ashdod last month. Conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv also went kinetic in recent days. Click here to read... [22]

Egypt, UAE, Israel leaders meet for first ever three-way summit

Leaders of Egypt, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates have met for a three-way summit, the first of its kind since the UAE normalised relations with Israel, with the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine, as well as the Iran nuclear deal, on the agenda. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi hosted the talks on March 22 at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and the UAE’s de facto ruler, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Bennett and Mohammed had also held bilateral talks with el-Sisi on March 21. Egypt’s presidency said the three leaders discussed energy, market stability, and food security. A statement from Bennett’s office said, “The leaders discussed the ties between the three countries in the context of recent developments in the world and the region, and the ways to strengthen them on all levels.” Egypt, in particular, is facing challenges in the areas of energy and food security after the war in Ukraine sent commodity prices soaring, prompting Cairo on March 21 to devalue its currency by 14 percent. The war has also left Egypt facing higher costs for its substantial wheat import needs, as well as a loss in tourism revenue from Russian and Ukrainian visitors to Red Sea resorts. Click here to read... [23]

Russia says it has received US guarantees over Iran nuclear deal

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Moscow has received written guarantees from Washington that Western sanctions on Russia over Ukraine will not affect cooperation with Iran within the framework of the 2015 nuclear deal. Lavrov’s remarks on March 22 – delivered as he hosted his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, for talks in the Russian capital – could potentially signal that Russia’s demand that the sanctions would not impede its future dealings with Iran has been fulfilled. Moscow made the demand last week amid reports of an imminent agreement after more than 11 months of negotiations aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the nuclear deal is formally known. The United States called Russia’s last-minute demand “irrelevant”, while the so-called E3 countries – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – had warned it could lead to the collapse of the talks. In a joint news conference, Lavrov and Amirabdollahian rejected claims that Russia’s demand was presenting an “obstacle” to negotiations in the Austrian capital and backed a quick return to the deal that the US unilaterally abandoned in 2018. “We received written guarantees. They are included in the text of the agreement itself on the resumption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear programme,” Lavrov said. Click here to read... [24]

Syria’s Assad Makes Surprise Visit to the U.A.E. as Arab Ties Warm

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with Emirati leaders March 18 on a surprise visit to the United Arab Emirates, his first trip to an Arab country since launching a brutal crackdown on opponents that plunged the country into civil war 11 years ago. The hourslong trip by Mr. Assad, who is sanctioned by the U.S. government, comes amid an Arab effort to bring Syria in from the cold as well as tensions between the U.S. and Gulf countries over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Washington’s response to recent drone attacks from Yemen. The U.S. has maintained its hard-line position on the Syrian regime and in recent years sought to increase international pressure on him to accept a broader role for his opponents. Mr. Assad was received by the U.A.E.’s de facto leader Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan at his palace and separately in Dubai by its ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, according to U.A.E. and Syrian state media. “Sheikh Mohamed stressed that Syria is a fundamental pillar of Arab security, and that the U.A.E. is keen to strengthen cooperation with it to achieve the aspirations of the brotherly Syrian people towards stability and development,” U.A.E. state news agency WAM reported. Syrian state media agency SANA said economic, commercial and investment cooperation was discussed. Click here to read... [25]

Militants Are Edging South Toward West Africa’s Most Stable and Prosperous States

The Islamist militants who have rampaged through the heart of West Africa in recent years are now spreading toward the Gulf of Guinea coast, including some of the continent’s most stable and prosperous countries, according to African and U.S. officials. The past year has seen an uptick in violence instigated by al Qaeda affiliates along the northern borders of Benin and Togo, with militant cells infiltrating as far as Ghana and Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producers. The attacks on countries along the bend in Africa’s Atlantic coast appear to confirm warnings that U.S. military commanders have issued for several years: Unless stopped, militant violence won’t remain contained in the landlocked nations of the Sahel, the semiarid expanses directly south of the Sahara. “It does look like the jihadists have the aim of getting to the sea,” said Ghanaian army Brig. Gen. Felicia Twum-Barima. The jihadists’ southward push marks a new chapter in a decadelong security crisis that has claimed thousands of lives since al Qaeda-linked fighters swept through northern Mali in 2012, triggering the deployment of thousands of troops by France to reinforce its former colony. The fighting ebbed, then surged again across the Sahel, with jihadist factions loyal to al Qaeda and Islamic State attacking local and allied forces, as well as each other. Since 2020, the region has seen a wave of coups by soldiers pledging to restore security. Click here to read... [26]

China takes wait-and-see stance on Pakistan's political turmoil

With political uncertainty growing in Pakistan and a no-confidence motion set to be tabled against the government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan, Pakistani officials and experts have noted that China, its economic and geopolitical ally, has adopted a wait-and-see approach in its relations with the country as it tries to figure out whether its favorite opposition party, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), can take power in Islamabad. Since the beginning of March, opposition parties including PML-N had been preparing for the no-confidence motion to topple the Khan government. Now, Pakistan's national assembly -- the lower house of parliament -- is set to vote on the motion on March 27. If the motion secures at least 172 of 342 votes, Khan will have to step down from his post as prime minister. Officials and experts believe that after the likely ouster of Khan, China will prefer a government led by PML-N, a center-right Punjab-centric political party named after former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor -- the $50 billion Pakistan component of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative -- has not progressed well under the incumbent government. Experts believe that a new government led by PML-N will be able to pump a new life into the CPEC. Click here to read... [27]

China fully militarizes key South China Sea features

While international attention is transfixed on the war in Ukraine, China has fully militarized three of its occupied islands in the contested South China Sea. Speaking aboard a P-8 Poseidon on patrol in the South China Sea, US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John Aquilino said on March 20 that “China has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the disputed South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby.” According to Aquilino, China’s facilities on Mischief Reef, Subi Reef and Fiery Cross Reef appear to have been completed. He said it is yet to be seen whether China will start construction of additional military facilities in its other occupied features in the maritime area. Admiral Aquilino added that “the function of those islands is to expand the offensive capability of the PRC beyond their continental shores” and that from these occupied features, China “can fly fighters, bombers plus all those offensive capabilities of missile systems.” Aquilino also stressed that commercial and military planes flying near these occupied islands will be within the range of China’s weapons, which he said threatens all countries that operate near those features. Click here to read... [28]

US, Philippines to hold their 'largest-ever' war games

The Philippines and the United States will kick off the largest-ever joint military drills in the archipelago nation next week, US officials said on March 22, showing off their strong defence ties in the face of growing Chinese assertiveness. Nearly 9,000 Filipino and American soldiers will take part in the 12-day war games on the main island of Luzon, which are usually an annual affair but were cancelled or curbed during the pandemic. The exercises, which start on Mar 28, will cover among other things maritime security, live-fire training, counterterrorism, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, the US embassy said in a statement. "(Both sides) will train together to expand and advance shared tactics, techniques and procedures that strengthen our response capabilities and readiness for real-world challenges," said Major General Jay Bargeron, commander of the US 3rd Marine Division. Recent manoeuvres between the longtime allies have focused on potential conflict in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost in its entirety. China has ignored a 2016 ruling by The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration that its historical claim is without basis. It has reinforced its stance by building artificial islands over some contested reefs and installing weapons on them. Click here to read... [29]

China, Islamic world ‘standing closer’ as Chinese FM attends OIC meeting for first time

China and the Islamic world are standing closer with each other while the world is experiencing profound changes, as the Chinese foreign minister was for the first time invited to attend the foreign ministers' meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the biggest international organization of Muslim countries. With recent signs such as progress in FTA negotiations between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council, and Saudi Arabia in "active discussions" with China to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, many significant facts have shown that US efforts to hype rumors about Xinjiang have failed to split China and the Islamic world while the two sides have chosen to explore deeper cooperation, said Chinese analysts on March 22. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in Islamabad, capital of Pakistan, March 21 that China and the Islamic world have a strong desire to build partnerships for unity, justice and development. The OIC is the second largest organization after the United Nations with a membership of 57 states spread over four continents of Asia, Europe, Africa and South America which covers almost all Muslim countries. Wang noted that his presence at the OIC event reflects the strong desire of China and the Islamic world to further deepen their cooperation, saying the theme of the OIC foreign ministers' meeting - "Building Partnerships for Unity, Justice and Development" - bears special significance under current international circumstances. Click here to read... [30]

Medical

No shift in China’s zero-Covid response until big pandemic picture changes: top mainland expert

China will only consider adjusting its strict virus response after overall conditions change at home and overseas, according to China’s top Covid-19 strategy official. In an interview with state broadcaster CCTV on March 21, Liang Wannian, head of the expert panel leading the country’s Covid-19 response, said those conditions included having better tools to fight the virus, the prevalence of a less dangerous strain and the pandemic becoming less serious abroad. Liang said China would review factors collectively, including the degree of harm being caused by the virus, when weighing up changes to pandemic strategy or a return to normal. “I know everyone is hoping for the pandemic to end soon, but the viruses and diseases themselves do not depend on our will,” Liang said. He said potential developments included the virus mutating into a weaker pathogen with low transmissibility and virulence, posing less danger to health and life. This would be the best-case scenario. Another possibility was that vaccines became so effective they prevented not only severe illness, more severe clinical outcomes and death but stopped infection altogether. Future Covid-19 drugs might block the disease at an early stage, Liang said. Click here to read... [31]

Western Europe COVID-19 cases surge

COVID-19 is again surging in Western Europe due to a "perfect storm" of governments lifting restrictions, waning immunity and the more contagious BA.2 Omicron subvariant, experts said March 21. After more than a month of falling cases across much of the continent, countries such as Britain, France, Germany and Italy have all seen a dramatic resurgence of infections in recent days. In France, cases have risen by more than a third in the week since the government ended most COVID-19 restrictions on March 14. In Germany, despite a new daily record of nearly 300,000 infections on March 18, the government let national legislation enabling coronavirus restrictions expire over the weekend. Most German states, which have considerable leeway on applying measures, have however maintained the restrictions. In Italy, the government announced on March 17 it would phase out almost all restrictions by May 1 despite rising cases. And in Britain, where one in 20 people are currently infected, the government removed the last of its international travel restrictions on March 18. Faced with its own surging cases, Austria announced on the weekend it would reimpose rules requiring FFP2 face masks - just weeks after lifting the measure. Click here to read... [32]