Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 24 January 2022 - 30 January 2022

Economic

China urged don’t dismiss ‘negative impact’ of US interest rate cut out of hand

A change in monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve will have a “negative impact on the world” including China and should not be “dismissed”, according to a top Chinese researcher. The US central bank last week signalled it is likely to raise interest rates in March, while also reaffirming its plans to end its bond purchases, before launching a significant cut in its asset holdings as it turns its attentions to tackling rising inflation. “I think it’s best for everyone not to dismiss it lightly, especially not to make contemptuous comments on the US monetary authorities and their monetary policies,” said Li Yang, a former vice-president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The switch in tactics by the US Federal Reserve has already generated significant anxiety in China over the past few months as it is also facing growing risks of an economic slowdown. China exercises strict capital controls in planning its economy to manage the yuan’s exchange rate, its international balance sheet and the size of its foreign exchange reserves. President Xi Jinping earlier this month called for countries to strengthen their economic policy coordination and prevent the world economy from falling again, urging central banks in the West not to hike interest rates too fast to fight inflation. Click here to read... [2]

How the Fed’s Policy Shift Is Rippling Through the Housing Market

The Federal Reserve’s decision to end its era of easy money is rippling through the mortgage market, driving up the cost of buying a home. The central bank had been the biggest buyer of pools of home loans since the start of the pandemic. Now it is reversing course, winding down its purchases and laying the groundwork to shrink the $2.7 trillion stockpile it has built up. These mortgage-backed securities, hot investments for much of the pandemic, are now selling off. “When you go from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening in two months, this is what happens,” said Walt Schmidt, a mortgage strategist at FHN Financial. Recent market ructions have hammered securities of all stripes, from blue-chip stocks to junk bonds, pressuring many of the bedrock holdings in investors’ stock-and-bond portfolios. Prices of Treasurys also have fallen and yields have risen, meaning the cost of borrowing stands to climb across the board. The upheaval in mortgage bonds affects households in an especially direct manner. Less demand for mortgage bonds means issuers must offer higher yields to attract investors. So lenders have to raise interest rates on the mortgages inside those bonds. Already, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around its highest level since the beginning of the pandemic. Click here to read... [3]

China halts scores of IPO plans amid underwriter, law firm probe

Chinese bourses have halted processing at least 60 initial public offering (IPO) applications as regulators investigate intermediaries in the deals, including Deutsche Bank's Chinese securities venture. Exchange disclosures on Jan 26 showed 12 IPO plans in Shanghai's tech-heavy STAR Market and 48 in Shenzhen's start-up market ChiNext were suspended. Each had hired one or more of three companies being investigated by securities regulators - Zhong De Securities Co, accountancy firm SineWing and law firm King&Wood Mallesons - the exchange filings said. Zhong De is a joint venture between Shanxi Securities and Deutsche Bank AG. All three companies served Leshi Internet Information and Technology, which the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) last March said conducted accounting fraud between 2007 and 2016. King&Wood Mallesons and Zhong De said they had no immediate comment. SineWing and Deutsche Bank could not immediately be reached for comment. Shanxi Securities said in an exchange filing on Jan. 18 that Zhong De would fully cooperate with the CSRC's investigation into suspected law violations when it underwrote sales for Leshi in 2016. It was not immediately clear if IPOs targeting the Beijing Stock Exchange were also affected. Click here to read... [4]

China’s money laundering crackdown reflects ‘severe’ risks facing the financial system

Beijing on Jan 26 launched a three-year action plan to combat underground money flows that are most often seen in cases of corruption, tax evasion and organised crime. The campaign is being led by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the Ministry of Public Security and has been joined by agencies including the anti-corruption commission, the Supreme Court, tax and customs authorities. Officials said the “current situation remains severe”. The PBOC stepped up monitoring and punishment of financial crimes during a revision of anti-money-laundering laws last year. Its anti-money-laundering monitoring centre reviewed nearly 11.8 billion transactions from 4,319 institutions in 2020, an increase of 6.5 per cent from a year earlier. Chinese courts heard 6,624 related cases in 2020, with 229 people convicted for money laundering and 15,988 convicted for covering up or transferring gains from crimes. No figures from previous years were provided. Dozens of financial cadres and executives at state-owned financial institutions were also detained last year as part of a fresh anti-corruption drive, including Cai Esheng, former deputy chairman of the nation’s banking regulator, and China Life Insurance Group chairman Wang Bin. The money laundering action plan comes as the world’s second largest economy faces renewed threats of capital outflows from an imminent US Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Click here to read... [5]

China’s ‘Common Prosperity’ to Squeeze Cash-Strapped Local Governments

Local governments in China have long been weighed down by debts. Now Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s push for “common prosperity” is heaping more pressure on them—while removing some of their most reliable sources of income. Mr. Xi’s drive, which is aimed in part at narrowing the wealth gap in China, is rooted in an effort to address the rising costs of education, healthcare and housing—which are often referred to as the “three big mountains.” Over the past year, Beijing has imposed a flurry of regulatory actions to rein in China’s private education and real-estate sectors. At the same time, Beijing has pledged to expand offerings of public education, healthcare and housing, while promising to boost the supply of child-care and elderly-care services as it tries to address looming demographic challenges. With heavily-indebted local governments expected to shoulder the bulk of the costs for those services, economists are questioning the feasibility of the policy drive. “The fiscal aspirations just do not add up,” says Daniel Rosen, a co-founder and partner at New York-based Rhodium Group, which studies China’s economy. “You can’t have everything the government is promising, based on the ability of government to pay for it.” Click here to read... [6]

LNG ships flock to Europe as Ukraine crisis builds: satellite data

Vessels in European waters carrying liquefied natural gas have sharply increased in number, satellite data indicates, as countries go on an LNG import binge in case the Ukraine crisis flares up and they get cut off from Russian supplies of the fuel. European nations currently depend heavily on natural gas from Russia, which are delivered through land. But those supplies could stop, depending on what happens in Ukraine. Analyzing satellite data, Nikkei found that this month a daily average of 40 LNG carriers have been staying in the North Sea, the Baltic and Mediterranean seas, and waters along the west coast of France. The number is up nearly 70% from last January, when 24 such vessels were traversing the same waters. At present, the number of ships has increased to nearly 50. All those boats are creating something of a traffic jam as they are put on standby to unload LNG brought in from the United States and other countries. U.S. President Joe Biden has warned of a "distinct possibility" of Russia invading Ukraine next month. Russian President Vladimir Putin is also fanning the flames, saying there is "little ground for optimism." With Russia accounting for 17% of the world's natural gas production, according to BP, Europe is fretting over its fragile energy situation in which LNG inventories have fallen to their lowest level on record. Click here to read... [7]

U.S., EU Sanctions on Russia Could Ensnarl Western Oil Companies

Some of the West’s biggest oil companies could find themselves in the crosshairs of sanctions now being drafted by their home governments against Russia. Such sanctions, if applied broadly enough, could hamper access to crucial gear and know-how by all companies operating in Russia, including units and partners of these Western energy companies. The European Union, meanwhile, is considering more direct measures, including restricting the financing of new gas exploration and production in the country, as well as extending existing bans on the transfer of technology in the energy sector specifically, according to a senior European official. Russia’s banking sector is also a target, the Journal reported, potentially hurting the oil-and-gas sector it helps finance. British oil giant BP PLC owns almost 20% of Russian oil producer Rosneft Oil Co. Its rival, Shell PLC, alongside U.S. major Exxon Mobil Corp. , are drilling for natural gas and oil from fields around Sakhalin Island in Russia’s far east. U.K.-listed Glencore PLC owns a chunk of the parent of a big Russian aluminum maker and is a trader of Russian metals and oil. U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 after Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine caused problems for some of these and other industry players. Click here to read... [8]

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan hit by power blackouts

The central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan suffered electrical power outages in major cities on Jan 25, according to authorities and residents, after a major power line in Kazakhstan was disconnected. The grids of the three ex-Soviet republics are interconnected, and via Kazakhstan are linked to the Russian power grid which they can use to cover unexpected shortages. But Kazakhstan's North-South power line, which links densely populated southern Kazakhstan and its two neighbours to major power stations in northern Kazakhstan and the Russian network, was disconnected on Jan 25 morning due to "emergency imbalances" in the Central Asian part of the grid, grid operator KEGOC said. The blackout caused chaos across the region for several hours, with subway trains stuck in tunnels and skiers on lifts, airports closing, district heating and tap water pumps going idle and traffic lights switching off. Neither of the three countries reported any problems with its power stations that could have caused the imbalances. Kazakhstan, which has previously experienced power shortages due to the influx of cryptocurrency miners, has started routinely cutting off their power supply and did so from Jan. 24 until the end of the month, according to a document published online by one of the local miners. Click here to read... [9]

India gains foothold in Sri Lanka with Trincomalee oil tank deal

India's diplomatic patience is bearing fruit in Sri Lanka after the South Asian power signed a deal with its weaker southern neighbor to rehabilitate a majority of 85 abandoned giant oil tanks on the slopes of Trincomalee Harbor, the world's second-deepest natural port and one that New Delhi has been coveting for over 30 years. The deal, which was finalized during a flurry of diplomatic activity around the beginning of the year, is being flagged within Sri Lanka's foreign policy circles as the latest barometer showing warmer ties between countries with a checkered diplomatic history. That history has recently paved the way for China to make inroads into the South Asian island, giving India security concerns along its southern flank. The Sri Lankan government said both governments "have reached an agreement to implement a joint development project" after many rounds of diplomacy. The key feature of the partnership will be the rehabilitation of 61 of the tanks. Sri Lankan government sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, summed up this turn as one that offers both countries energy security, since the total storage capacity of all the tanks is close to 1 million metric tons. "The presence of such storage is a strategic asset," one official told Nikkei Asia, "providing for ample buffer stocks." Click here to read... [10]

EU launches WTO action against China over Lithuania dispute

The European Union and China on Jan 27 stepped up their diplomatic dispute as the EU took a spat over exports problems for member state Lithuania to world trade's governing body, and accused Beijing of seeking to undermine the 27-nation bloc's single market. China retorted that the EU should “distinguish right from wrong.” It said Brussels should get Lithuania to stick to diplomatic relations based on the “one-China” principle. Lithuania broke with diplomatic custom by agreeing that the Taiwanese office in Vilnius would bear the name Taiwan instead of Chinese Taipei, a term used by other countries to avoid offending Beijing. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis insisted the bloc was owed more respect and said Beijing should stop coercing member states with heavy-handed trade tactics like blocking imports based on political grounds. “Our relationship requires mutual respect,” Dombrovskis said as he announced the EU action at the World Trade Organization. However, China’s foreign affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian insisted the EU should move to counter its member's approach. Beijing expelled the Lithuanian ambassador and withdrew its own ambassador. Last month, Lithuania closed its embassy in the Chinese capital. Tensions have mounted, and Lithuania, together with the EU, accuse Beijing of holding up goods, both from the Baltic nation and from EU companies that use Lithuanian components, at China’s borders. Click here to read... [11]

Strategic

China renews call for direct talks as UN Security Council turns attention to Ukraine crisis

Chinese diplomatic observers said Beijing would maintain a flexible but ambiguous position and was unlikely to weigh in. They also doubted whether a Security Council meeting could do much to help. Zhao Long, a senior research fellow from the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said neither the US, nor Europe or Russia wanted to be “the first to fire”. Beijing has sought to avoid endorsing the moves of either side but last week it offered its first public show of support for Moscow over the matter, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi telling US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that “Russia’s reasonable security concerns should be taken seriously and resolved”. The US has called on Beijing to use its influence with Moscow to push for a diplomatic solution to the crisis but observers said China was not likely to take on a bigger role. Zhang Xin, an associate professor of international relations at East China Normal University, said Beijing was likely to maintain a “flexible but vague attitude” over the crisis. He said China had not “expressed a strong will to play a role as a participant, or mediator”. Click here to read... [12]

Ukraine won’t get any US combat troops, Pentagon says

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters that President Joe Biden “does not intend to put troops into Ukraine for combat operations." However, Austin said that every possible military option short of a direct deployment is on the table. Though negotiations have stalled, with the US refusing to back down on insisting that Ukraine be allowed to join the NATO alliance, Austin told reporters on Jan 28 that "conflict is not inevitable" with Russia. Russian troops remain stationed near its own western borders, but amid talk of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, Austin conceded that the US doesn’t know whether Russian President Vladimir Putin “has made a final decision to use these forces against Ukraine.” Despite ruling out “combat operations,” the US is preparing for military action in other ways. Some 8,500 American troops have been placed on alert to deploy to Eastern Europe, and Austin said that these troops could be used to “reinforce security on NATO’s eastern flank.” And while Ukraine is not a member of NATO, Austin suggested that “any Russian attack” would be met with “unified” opposition from the alliance. Click here to read... [13]

Ukraine asks West to tone down ‘panic’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticized the “slightly imbalanced” coverage of the situation surrounding his country exhibited by some Western politicians and media. He was speaking to foreign reporters during a major press conference on Jan 28. The former entertainer particularly emphasised his concerns about press coverage, and political statements, concerning an alleged Russian military build-up near his country's frontier. “Today we are not seeing any greater escalation than it has been before. Yes, the number of servicemen has increased, but I spoke about that at the beginning of 2021 when they talked about the military exercises of the Russian Federation,” Zelensky stated. “From media coverage, it looks like we are at war already, that troops are already on the road, that there's mobilization, people going somewhere. It's not the case. We don’t need this panic.” Overhyping the tensions around Ukraine has already had a heavy impact on its economy, Zelensky insisted. Billions have been withdrawn from the country, in recent times, he added, without specifying whether he was referring to the domestic Grivna currency, or those of foreign nations. Click here to read... [14]

South China Sea: pulling crashed US Navy fighter jet out of water will be tough job, Chinese experts say

Salvage operations for a US Navy fighter jet that crashed in the South China Sea will be a tough task, with the extent of damage to the jet, the depth of the wreckage and subsurface conditions all potentially affecting recovery work, according to Chinese military experts. This comes after the US Navy said it was working to recover a F-35C fighter jet that had fallen into the South China Sea on Jan 31 following a “landing mishap” on the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier. Damage to the carrier’s landing deck was “superficial”, and routine flight operations had resumed, a spokesman for the Navy’s Seventh Fleet said. He did not reveal where the crash had occurred or recovery plan details. On Jan 28, the US Navy confirmed that a photo and video circulating on social media did show an F-35C crash-landing on the USS Carl Vinson and floating in the South China Sea after falling off the carrier. The F-35C is the most advanced stealth fighter jet in the world, and the accident sparked media speculation that China would race to recover it for the cutting-edge technology. China on Jan 27 said it was not interested in the crashed jet. Click here to read... [15]

China puts ‘unprecedented’ pressure on foreign journalists: press group

In its annual report, the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China (FCCC) group said Beijing appears to be “encouraging a spate of lawsuits”, or the threat of legal action, against foreign journalists, which are often filed long after sources agreed to interviews. “The risk landscape is changing at the moment in unfamiliar ways,” said David Rennie, Beijing bureau chief for The Economist, in the report. “In particular, news organisations face warnings that their reporting may expose them to legal sanctions or civil lawsuits, or – most ominously – to national security investigations,” he added. This marks a “worrying” shift from earlier tools to control the media, such as blacklisting them from events or via problems with press cards and visas, he said. The increased threats of legal action come after the 2020 detention of Australian TV anchor Cheng Lei, who worked for Chinese state broadcaster CGTN, and Haze Fan of Bloomberg News. Chinese authorities have said they are being held on suspicion of endangering national security. Meanwhile, foreign journalists and their organisations have developed emergency exit plans over heightened risks, and “state-backed attacks … particularly trolling campaigns online” have made it tough for those remaining to operate, the FCCC report said. Click here to read... [16]

Analysis: If Xi secures just 5 more years, he loses

Here is an interesting yardstick of success for Chinese President Xi Jinping at the ruling party's national congress later this year. "If all he gets is another five-year term as party general secretary, leaving prospects for his ultra-long-term reign unclear, it will, in effect, be a defeat," one Chinese political source whispered recently. His grip on the party will gradually weaken, the person said. The comment reflects a delicate atmosphere that has lingered for more than two months since the "third resolution on history" was adopted at the sixth plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party's 19th Central Committee in November. As things stand now, there is only one thing that everybody is sure of: that Xi, who doubles as party general secretary, will not retire at this upcoming national congress. What more he can secure will depend on how his political battles go over the next nine months or so. If a leader of a democratic country has another five years in office, there is little talk of him or her becoming a lame-duck anytime soon. But this common sense does not apply in China, where everything is decided through a power struggle within the party, of which outsiders know little. If people in China begin to feel, deep down, that they may have a different top leader in five years, their attitudes may well change from that moment forward. Click here to read... [17]

U.A.E. Shoots Down Missile Fired by Yemen’s Houthis During Israeli Visit

The United Arab Emirates military said Jan 31 it intercepted a ballistic missile fired at Abu Dhabi by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, just hours after Israel’s president began a historic visit to the Persian Gulf country. The missile attack, which caused no injuries or major disruptions, was the Houthis’ third aerial assault on the U.A.E. in as many weeks, as Yemen’s civil war threatens to spill over into other parts of the region. Besides Abu Dhabi, the Houthis also claimed targeting the Emirati city of Dubai again, but there were no immediate signs of an attack or confirmation of one from authorities here. The Emirati Defense Ministry said fragments of the ballistic missile had fallen outside of populated areas, and authorities said it hadn’t caused air-traffic disruptions. The ministry said coalition forces responded by destroying a missile launcher in Yemen that allegedly fired the rocket. The attack took place hours after Israeli President Isaac Herzog landed Sunday in Abu Dhabi. His visit is the first by a head of the Jewish state following its recognition by the U.A.E. under the Abraham Accords in 2020. Mr. Herzog’s duties are largely ceremonial, but the event was a reminder of the increasingly close relationship Israel and the U.A.E. have forged. Click here to read... [18]

Central Asian stability critical for China plans

On the 30th anniversary of establishing ties, President Xi Jinping’s pledged in a virtual meeting with the five Central Asian leaders of US$500 million in aid to their countries over the next three years. Xi pledged support to the countries to “walk their own paths and defend their sovereignty”. He also hit out at foreign interference, saying Beijing opposed using human rights as an excuse to intervene in domestic politics. Outbound direct investment from China to the Central Asian states exceeded US$14 billion last year and the combined trade between China and the five surged by 25 per cent year on year to US$44.6 billion during the first 11 months of 2021. Central Asia was a crossroads for people and goods on the old Silk Road trade routes. Now these countries are critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, its plan to grow global trade, and also to stability in the restive western region of Xinjiang. So there is no surprise that Beijing wants to strengthen ties with them. At the same time, China will take care not to appear to be stepping into Russia’s backyard. Moscow and Beijing will have a good understanding of their respective needs in Central Asia and be able to coordinate plans. And they both want to counter American influence and maintain political stability in the region. Click here to read... [19]

Pakistan to pay compensation for Chinese workers killed in attack

Pakistan has approved an unprecedented $11.6 million in compensation for the families of Chinese engineers who were killed and wounded in a terrorist attack last year in a move to smooth bilateral relations as Prime Minister Imran Khan prepares to visit Beijing in February. The move comes at a time when ties between the two countries have begun to cool. A strategically important infrastructure project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has stalled. The $50 billion flagship component of President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative has hit a number of snags, including security problems in Pakistan. The cabinet's economic coordination committee made the award last week. "The ECC, after deliberation and considering the depth of our relationship with China, approved the proposal of payment of $11.6 million as a goodwill gesture," the finance ministry said in a press statement. Construction work on the Dasu Dam hydropower project on the Indus River in Kohistan Province in the country's northwest was suspended by China Gezhouba Group in July last year after 10 Chinese personnel were killed and another 26 wounded by terrorists. Four Pakistanis were also killed and at least 13 wounded. Click here to read... [20]

Japan will not pursue ability to wage 'full-scale war,' Kishida says

Japan does not seek the power to destroy an enemy nation, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told the parliament on Jan 26, stressing that a proposed capacity to attack missile bases would not go beyond the limits of the country's pacifist constitution. "Destroying another nation, waging a full-scale war, and having the capability to do so -- these are not on the agenda at all," Kishida said in response to a question by Communist Party lawmaker Keiji Kokuta in the lower house budget committee. Kokuta was asking about government discussions begun the same day on updating the National Security Strategy and other documents to meet a changing defense environment. Among the key topics is whether Japan needs the capability to strike enemy bases to prevent missile attacks. "I have no intention of discussing matters that go beyond the constitution, international law and the basic roles in the U.S.-Japan security pact," Kishida also said. "We will think about what we can do within those constraints." "We will explore all realistic options without excluding anything, including the ability to strike enemy bases," Kishida said, adding that "our defense capabilities need to be fundamentally bolstered." Click here to read... [21]

Doubts grow on water-release schedule at Fukushima plant

Shovel loaders digging pits at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant on Jan. 17 were a rare sign of progress in the government’s contentious water-discharge plan at the stricken site. Under the plan, millions of tons of treated but still contaminated water stored at the plant will be released into the sea over decades starting in spring 2023. However, opposition to the plan remains fierce among local residents, the fishing industry and even overseas governments. The pits being dug will temporarily hold radioactive water right before the release. But other preparatory work has already been stalled. The government plans to create an undersea tunnel through which the treated and diluted radioactive water will be released into the sea about 1 kilometer from the plant. Drilling work for the tunnel was initially scheduled to start early this year, but it was delayed to June. Some government officials now doubt that the tunnel can be completed in time for the planned water release. “It would be impossible to construct the underwater tunnel in less than a year,” one official said. The government in April last year decided to discharge the contaminated water stored at the plant to move forward the decades-long process of decommissioning of the plant. Click here to read... [22]

ASEAN foreign ministers to meet Feb. 16-17 in Cambodia

Cambodia plans to host foreign ministers from Association of Southeast Asian Nations members on Feb. 16-17, the country's Foreign Ministry said Saturday, after a meeting scheduled for January was postponed amid disagreement over Myanmar. The meeting, an important part of ASEAN's regular annual diplomatic schedule, was supposed to be held Jan. 18-19 in Siem Reap, Cambodia. The country now holds the association's rotating chairmanship. But Malaysia, Singapore and other members disagreed with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's apparent intention to allow representatives of the military government in Myanmar to attend. The meeting was postponed after multiple members backed out. Feb. 1 marks one year since the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy was ousted in Myanmar and replaced by a council headed by Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. This month, Hun Sen became the first foreign leader to visit Myanmar and meet Min Aung Hlaing -- a move that critics said risked conferring legitimacy on the military government. ASEAN has called on Myanmar to accept a five-point consensus adopted last April, starting with an immediate cessation of violence. Click here to read... [23]

4th Mossad commander resigns in under a year – media

An unnamed commander of Mossad’s special operations division has resigned, accoridng to Israeli media. He reportedly became the fourth high-profile official to leave Mossad in seven months since David Barnea became director of the Israeli intelligence agency in June 2021. According to a Channel 13 News report on Jan 30, the commander resigned after Barnea allegedly told him that he and other officials had become a “burden on the organization.” “Barnea wanted to make major changes to how the department headed by [the unnamed commander] works because of difficulties in operating Israeli agents abroad, and [the commander] did not implement them as requested,” Haaretz reported, adding that the commander’s deputy and “a number of agents also resigned” over the incident. The commander has reportedly since been replaced. It is the fourth time that a senior Mossad official has resigned in seven months since Barnea replaced Yossi Cohen as director of the agency. Last year, Mossad’s head of technology, head of operations, and head of anti-terrorism all resigned from their positions over alleged conflict with Barnea. Barnea, who joined Mossad in 1996 before becoming head of its Tzomet Division in 2013, Mossad deputy head in 2019, and finally director of the agency in 2021, has been described as a “gadget-loving killing machine” and has reportedly sought to take Mossad back to a code of absolute silence – threatening both current and former agents who speak to the media about operations. Click here to read... [24]

Islamic State Plotted Comeback Long Before Syria Prison Attack

Islamic State has been slowly preparing for a comeback in the Syrian and Iraqi territory that it lost nearly three years ago. Black Islamic State flags have cropped up in northeastern Syria in recent months, witnesses say. Men claiming to represent the jihadists have extorted shopkeepers and truck drivers. Over the past year, the extremists have killed dozens of people in shootings and suicide bombings that attracted little attention outside the region. Then last week, some 200 militants, including suicide bombers, attacked a prison holding thousands of Islamic State members in Syria. Undercover militants hiding in the civilian population around the facility prepared to shelter escaped prisoners. Jihadists inside the prison launched a revolt, seizing control of the compound. The prison break was Islamic State’s clearest statement that it remains a lethal threat in Iraq and Syria and poses a serious challenge for the 900 U.S. soldiers deployed in the area. The attack sparked a week of gunbattles with American and Syrian troops. More than 100 people died, mainly jihadist fighters. About 45,000 people were forced to flee their homes. Click here to read... [25]

N. Korea confirms test of missile believed to be able to strike US territory

North Korea confirmed on Jan 31 that it fired a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile toward the Sea of Japan (known in the Koreas as the East Sea) – its most powerful missile test in over four years and the seventh since the start of the year. “The inspection firing test was conducted for the purpose of selectively inspecting the ground-to-ground, mid-range, long-range ballistic missile Hwasong-12 and verifying the overall accuracy of this weapon system,” North Korea’s state-run KCNA agency announced on Sunday. It added that the launch “confirmed the accuracy, security and effectiveness of the operation of the Hwasong 12-type weapon system under production.” KCNA also claimed that the missile test used the “highest-angle launch system” to ensure the safety of neighboring countries. Pyongyang has released several photos that purportedly show Jan 30's launch from space. The missile traveled 800km before falling into the Sea of Japan on Jan 30 morning. The test drew condemnation from Seoul and Tokyo, as well as from Washington, which expressed concern that the test may be preparation for North Korea’s return to long-range missile and nuclear tests. Click here to read... [26]

US will designate Qatar as major non-NATO ally, Biden tells emir

The United States is planning to designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally, President Joe Biden has told Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, a move that would formally upgrade the partnership between Doha and Washington. During a meeting with Sheikh Tamim at the White House on Jan 31, Biden called Qatar a “good friend and reliable partner”. “I’m notifying Congress that I will designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally to reflect the importance of our relationship; I think it’s long overdue,” Biden said from the Oval Office. The status would give Doha special economic and military privileges in its relationship with Washington. “The Major Non-NATO Ally designation is a powerful symbol of the close relationship the United States shares with those countries and demonstrates our deep respect for the friendship for the countries to which it is extended,” the State Department says in a fact sheet. Qatar would become the second country in the Gulf region after Kuwait to become a US major non-NATO ally. Last week, the White House said Biden would discuss “ensuring the stability of global energy supplies” with the Qatari emir. Qatar is one of the largest producers of liquified natural gas (LNG). Click here to read... [27]

Mali expels France envoy over ‘hostile and outrageous’ remarks

Mali gave the French ambassador 72 hours notice on Jan 31 to leave the country after “hostile and outrageous” comments by former colonial power France about its transitional government, it said in a statement read on national television. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian had said on Jan 28 that Mali’s military government was “out of control” amid escalating tensions between the West African state and its European partners following two coups. Le Drian also called the military government illegitimate. French Defence Minister Florence Parly said on Jan 29 that French troops would not stay in Mali if the price was too high. “The Malian government vigorously condemns and rejects these remarks, which are contrary to the development of friendly relations between nations,” a statement read over state television said. “The government of the Republic of Mali informs the national and international public that today … the ambassador of France in Bamako, his excellency Joel Meyer … was notified of the decision of the government asking him to leave the national territory within 72 hours.” There was no immediate comment from Paris. Click here to read... [28]

Medical

Coronavirus: the Omicron variant is less severe but it’s not ‘nature’s vaccine

Two months after it emerged, the Omicron variant has ripped through many populations and is rapidly becoming the dominant coronavirus strain. Global case numbers have hit record levels, but proportionally hospitalisations and deaths are lower than for previous surges, indicating that Omicron could be less severe than other strains like Delta. That has prompted an optimistic view to take hold that this is a highly transmissible but mild variant that could infect billions and provide the immunity needed to end the pandemic. Or as US Senator Rand Paul put it, Omicron is “basically nature’s vaccine”. But scientists say this notion is dangerous and underestimates the variant’s impact, and that it is still unclear how much immune protection an Omicron infection provides or how long it might last. “The ideal vaccine would be a virulent virus that everybody is infected with and becomes immune to,” said Bruce Levin, a biology professor at Emory University in the US. “But I am concerned about two things, one of which is that immunity is not complete. It’s not like smallpox or measles,” he said, referring to diseases that provide lifelong immunity after infection. “The other thing is it has a high R0,” which indicates how contagious the strain is. Click here to read... [29]

Thousands in Ottawa protest COVID mandates, many rebuked

Thousands of protesters gathered in Canada’s capital on Jan 29 to protest vaccine mandates, masks and lockdowns. Some parked on the grounds of the National War Memorial and danced on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, others carried signs and flags with swastikas and some used the statue of Canadian hero Terry Fox to display an anti-vaccine statement, sparking widespread condemnation. “I am sickened to see protesters dance on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and desecrate the National War Memorial. Generations of Canadians have fought and died for our rights, including free speech, but not this. Those involved should hang their heads in shame,” tweeted Gen. Wayne Eyre, Canada's the chief of the Defense Staff. Protestors compared vaccine mandates to fascism, one truck carried a Confederate flag and many carried expletive-laden signs targeting Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The statue of Fox, a national hero who lost a leg to bone cancer as a youngster, then set off in 1980 on a fundraising trek across Canada, was draped with a upside down Canadian flag with a sign that said “mandate freedom.” Trudeau retweeted a statement from The Terry Fox Foundation that said “Terry believed in science and gave his life to help others.” Eric Simmons, from Oshawa, Ontario, said all vaccine mandates should be ended. Click here to read... [30]