Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor, 29 November - 05 December 2021

Economic

Retreat From Globalization Adds to Inflation Risks

While supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages and fiscal stimulus have all been blamed for the rise in short-term inflation, another long-term force could also be at work: “deglobalization.” Economists and policy makers have long argued that globalization helped to lower prices. As trade barriers fell, domestic companies were forced to compete with cheaper imports. Technology and trade liberalization encouraged businesses to outsource production to low-wage countries. Generally liberal immigration policies allowed many lower-wage workers to move to richer countries, although the link between immigration and wages isn’t clear-cut. Economists Robert Johnson of the University of Notre Dame and Diego Comin of Dartmouth found in a 2020 paper that international trade had the effect of reducing U.S. consumer prices by an annual 0.1 to 0.4 percentage point between 1997 and 2018. The share of foreign content in global manufacturing production surged from 17.3% in 1995 to 26.5% in 2011, according to Asian Development Bank data analyzed by the Conference Board. It has since declined to 23.5% in 2020. Global foreign direct investment, a key gauge of cross-border business expansion, peaked at around $2 trillion in 2015 and fell to $1.5 trillion in 2019, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Click here to read... [2]

China forms new state-owned China Logistics Group

China formally established a new state-owned logistics group on Dec 6, state broadcaster CCTV reported on Dec 06, to strengthen domestic and global supply chains amid widespread disruptions caused by the pandemic. China Logistics Group aimed to become a “global supply chain organiser" by developing international trade links and freight services, as well as cross-border e-commerce, CCTV said. The new company was formed through a merger of China Railway Materials, China National Materials Storage and Transportation Group, Huamao International Freight Limited Company Shenzhen Branch, China Logistics, and China National Packaging Corporation, CCTV said. The newly-formed group will also include as strategic investors the parent firms of China Eastern Airlines, COSCO Shipping, and China Merchants Group, who will respectively hold share percentages of 10 per cent, 7.3 per cent, and 4.9 per cent. China's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and China Chengtong Holdings Group will evenly split the remaining shares. Chengtong Holding is centrally managed by SASAC, giving the state asset regulator control over all the remaining shares. The new state-owned logistics giant currently covers 30 Chinese provinces, has a presence in five continents, and operates 3 million vehicles, CCTV said. Click here to read... [3]

Chinese Tariffs Fuel Boom in U.S. Trade With Tech Exporter Taiwan

U.S. trade with Taiwan is booming, as the self-governing island cashes in on surging demand for its computer chips and lures factories back from China, where many exports to the U.S. including electronics are subject to 25% tariffs. Taiwan is now ranked No. 8 globally in trade with the U.S., just behind the U.K. and ahead of Vietnam. It exported a record $72 billion in goods to the U.S. in the 12 months through September. That is up about 70% since 2017, the year before the Trump administration imposed the Chinese tariffs. U.S. exports to Taiwan have climbed about 35% from pre-tariff levels to $35 billion annually, also a record, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. The increase has largely been driven by purchases of American crude oil, machinery and cars. Expanded commerce between Taiwan and the U.S. comes as they move to strengthen their trading ties formally over the objections of Beijing, which considers Taiwan a part of its territory. Taiwan is a major supplier of semiconductors for the U.S., and its sharp increase in exports reflects more demand for chips across many industries. Still, the biggest trigger for the rising trade between Taiwan and the U.S. has been the tariffs on Chinese goods, which the Biden administration has kept in force. Click here to read... [4]

China-Pakistan Belt and Road Initiative hits buffers

"China only procures sand and gravel locally for construction projects," said Nasir Sohrabi, president of Gwadar's Rural Community Development Council. "All other raw materials are imported from China leaving very little for local industry." CPEC is a $50 billion flagship BRI component that includes power plants, industrial clusters, and road and rail upgrades. About half the money pledged by China has already flowed in with investments and intergovernmental lending, pushing Pakistan's economic growth above 5% in 2017 and 2018. But those who have yet to benefit from Chinese largesse are losing hope and becoming restive. The main road leading to Gwadar Port has been blocked since Nov. 15 by thousands of locals in a sit-down protest demanding basic amenities, including water and power, as well as access to the sea for fishermen. Pakistan has seen a decline in direct investment from China. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the central bank, Chinese FDI in the quarter that ended in September was just $76.9 million compared to $154.9 million in the same quarter last year. Islamabad is alarmed by the costliness of Chinese projects. Tabish Gauhar, Pakistan's special assistant to the prime minister on power and petroleum, stated in cabinet in August that a CPEC power project is 25% more expensive than the international norm. Click here to read... [5]

More evidence China on high alert for monetary policy changes from US and EU

The Chinese authorities want “more effective” monetary coordination with developed countries to ensure a “fairer” international environment, a foreign exchange official said on Dept 03. The warning from Lu Lei, deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, is the latest evidence that Beijing is on high alert for a policy turnaround from the US Federal Reserve despite repeated assurances that it is well prepared. “Countries lying at the core of the international monetary system often have a big say,” he told the annual conference of the International Finance Forum in Guangzhou. “Spillover effects from their policies deserve our close attention.” Major economies, including the United States and the European Union, have resorted to unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies to fight the coronavirus pandemic, and these have already pushed up global inflation. The policy divergence with the West is likely to continue as it is going to become more accommodative next year to prevent an economic hard landing, compared with the US tendency for policy tightening to contain rising inflation. Beijing and Washington have expressed their respective concerns over financial issues – the Fed is worried about the risk from Evergrande – but the two sides have not yet started formal discussions. Click here to read... [6]

China seeks tripling of big data industry to $470bn by 2025

China aims to triple the size of its big data industry to 3 trillion yuan ($470 billion) in the five years through 2025 under a five-year plan announced Nov 30. The plan, released by the Ministry of Industry and Information The industry already swelled to 1 trillion yuan during the previous five-year plan, but China did not make sufficient progress in terms of data technology, markets and security under that framework, the ministry found. With three major pieces of data-related legislation over the past few years -- the 2017 Cybersecurity Law and this year's Data Security Law and Personal Information Protection Law -- Beijing has tightened control over data flows and clamped down hard on cross-border transfers. The new plan aims to build a data industry that can withstand headwinds such as foreign sanctions. The government will look to support corporate and social applications for big data, encouraging wider use in four broad industrial sectors -- raw materials, manufacturing equipment, consumer industries and digital information. Telecommunications, finance, medicine, agriculture, public security, transportation and power were singled out as areas of focus. The plan also calls for active involvement in setting international data standards. The document also recommends stepping up the use of data in governance and social administrationClick here to read... [7]

Kirin seeks arbitration to end venture with Myanmar military

Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings asked on Dec 06 the Singapore International Arbitration Centre to resolve a dispute over ending its business partnership with the Myanmar military, the company said. Kirin announced on Dec 06 that it had filed for arbitration with the SIAC, hoping involvement by a third-party body would help end the impasse. Kirin is also counting that having its argument heard on the international stage will help its case and add pressure on the military-backed venture partner. At issue is the fate of Myanmar Brewery, operated by Kirin and Myanma Economic Holdings (MEHL). The Japanese brewer decided to unwind the partnership after Myanmar's military took control of the country, but it still hopes to continue operating the business after MEHL gives up its stake. But it is unclear whether MEHL will abide by whatever ruling the SIAC will issue. Kirin owns 51% of Myanmar Brewery, with MEHL holding the rest. Kirin had obtained a provisional injunction from Singapore's high court On Dec. 2, ordering MEHL to suspend proceedings to dissolve the partnership, the company said in the Dec 06 announcement. Click here to read... [8]

US world’s biggest contributor to plastic pollution: report

The US is by far the biggest contributor to global plastic waste in the world, according to a new report submitted to the federal government Dec 01 that called for a national strategy to tackle the growing crisis. Overall, the US contributed around 42 million metric tons (MMT) in plastic waste in 2016 - more than twice as much as China and more than the countries of the European Union combined, according to the analysis. On average, every American generates 130 kilograms of plastic waste per year, with Britain next on the list at 99 kilograms per person per year. Entitled "Reckoning with the US Role in Global Ocean Plastic Waste," the report was mandated by Congress as part of the Save Our Seas 2.0 Act, which became law in December 2020. Global plastic production rose from 20 million metric tons in 1966 to 381 MMT in 2015, a 20-fold increase over half a century, the report said. Research has shown nearly 1,000 species of marine life are susceptible to plastic entanglement or to ingesting microplastics, which then make their way through the food web back to humans. Click here to read... [9]

Population drop of nearly 1 million over five years, Japan census shows

Japan’s population declined over five years by nearly one million to reach 126,146,099 as of Oct. 1, 2020, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, citing the results of the national census taken that year. The latest tally, which includes resident foreign nationals, was released Nov. 30. It shows that there were 948,646 fewer inhabitants compared with the previous census in 2015, representing a 0.7-percent decrease. It marked the second consecutive decrease in population as measured by censuses. The number of Japanese nationals living in the country stood at approximately 123,399,000, down about 1,783,000 from five years ago, or 1.4 percent lower. However, the number of foreign nationals living in Japan came to a record 2,747,000, up about 835,000 from 2015, or 43.6 percent more. Chinese comprise the biggest share among foreign nationals at about 667,000, followed by ethnic Koreans, about 375,000, and Vietnamese, about 321,000. The number of people aged under 15 stood at approximately 15,032,000, or 11.9 percent of the total, which is among the lowest ratios in the world. In contrast, the number of people aged 65 or over stood at a record 36,027,000, or 28.6 percent of the total population, marking a continuous increase. Click here to read... [10]

Group of 67 nations in WTO agree to cut red tape in services trade

Sixty-seven World Trade Organization members agreed on Dec 02 to pare back regulations such as licensing requirements placed on service providers operating in foreign countries, a move that could save $150 billion in annual trade costs. The group of developed and some developing countries from Peru to the Philippines committed to greater transparency, legal certainty and an easier regulatory process with electronic applications and clear and reasonable fees. The signatories, also including the United States, China and EU members, are a minority of the WTO's 164 members, but represent 90% of all services trade. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has estimated that implementing looser regulations in the larger G20 countries could reduce trade costs by up to 6%, with annual savings rising to $150 billion. Banking, information technology, telecoms, architecture and engineering would be among the service sectors benefiting most. The deal aims to provide clarity to services companies that are often obliged to submit multiple paper documents to regulators and are left in the dark how their applications are processedClick here to read... [11]

Strategic

Biden, Putin set video call Dec 07 as Ukraine tensions grow

When Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin meet virtually on Dec 07 the two presidents will have to negotiate a history of mutual suspicion as they take up the urgent issue of a major Russian military build-up on the Ukraine border. The key question hanging over the talks – and the subject of keen debate among analysts and political leaders – is whether Putin might actually launch a cross-border offensive, or whether he is using the troops to pressure Biden for guarantees ex-Soviet Ukraine will never become a Nato launch pad. The two have a daunting list of other differences to air, from Russia’s harsh treatment of dissidents to the presence of ransomware hackers on Russian soil to Moscow’s support for the repressive regime in Syria. But the magnitude of the Russian build-up near Ukraine – the Kremlin may be planning an offensive early in 2022 involving up to 175,000 troops, according to US intelligence obtained by The Washington Post and other outlets – has raised red flags in Washington and across Europe. Many analysts doubt that Putin would carry through with an invasion – which would inevitably prompt international condemnation and probably new sanctions – but at least some take a darker view. Click here to read... [12]

Russia to unveil security pact proposals in bid to restrain NATO

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Dec 02 that Moscow would soon put forward proposals for a new European security pact which he said he hoped would stop NATO from expanding further eastwards. Lavrov was speaking at a summit of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Stockholm ahead of talks with his U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken expected to focus on tensions around Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin this week complained about Western military aid to Ukraine and what he called NATO's expansion closer to Russia's own borders. He warned NATO against placing missile defence systems in Ukraine. In a speech to the OSCE, Lavrov said that Europe was returning to what he called the nightmare of military confrontation and said he hoped that Russia's proposals on a new European security pact would be carefully considered. "The architecture of strategic stability is rapidly being destroyed, NATO refuses to constructively examine our proposals to de-escalate tensions and avoid dangerous incidents," Lavrov told the OSCE. "On the contrary, the alliance's military infrastructure is drawing closer to Russia's borders. The nightmare scenario of military confrontation is returning." Lavrov said Moscow also feared that intermediate-range U.S. missiles could appear in Europe. Click here to read... [13]

China Seeks First Military Base on Africa’s Atlantic Coast, U.S. Intelligence Finds

Classified American intelligence reports suggest China intends to establish its first permanent military presence on the Atlantic Ocean in the tiny Central African country of Equatorial Guinea, according to U.S. officials. Principal deputy U.S. national security adviser Jon Finer visited Equatorial Guinea in October on a mission to persuade President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and his son and heir apparent, Vice President Teodoro “Teodorin” Nguema Obiang Mangue, to reject China’s overtures. World-wide, the U.S. finds itself maneuvering to try to block China from projecting its military power from new overseas bases, from Cambodia to the United Arab Emirates. In Equatorial Guinea, the Chinese likely have an eye on Bata, according to a U.S. official. Bata already has a Chinese-built deep-water commercial port on the Gulf of Guinea, and excellent highways link the city to Gabon and the interior of Central Africa. The “most significant threat” from China would be “a militarily useful naval facility on the Atlantic coast of Africa,” Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander of U.S. Africa Command, testified in the Senate in April. “By militarily useful I mean something more than a place that they can make port calls and get gas and groceries. I’m talking about a port where they can rearm with munitions and repair naval vessels.” Click here to read... [14]

U.S. Hope for Iran Nuclear Talks Now Rests on China, Russia

Even as U.S. tensions mount with Russia over Ukraine and with China over Taiwan and other issues, Western officials acknowledge that the fastest route to increasing economic and political pressure on Tehran’s new hard-line government runs through Moscow and especially Beijing. China helped Iran stabilize its economy after the U.S. reimposed sanctions in 2018, pushing it into a severe slump. China has imported up to 700,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day in recent months, according to energy analysis firm Vortexa. Yet bringing Russia and China on board a concerted new multilateral pressure campaign against Iran will probably be slow and difficult. For Chinese diplomats, dealing with Iran combines an exceptionally complex set of national interests, including energy security, nuclear nonproliferation, Beijing’s relationship with the U.S. and ties with other, competing Persian Gulf powers. “It’s wishful thinking to expect that the China of 2014 and 2015 is going to return to Vienna,” said Daniel Russel, the State Department’s top diplomat for East Asia affairs during the Obama administration, now at the Asia Society. “I think those days are over.” Click here to read... [15]

As U.S. promotes democracy, China touts its own version

As U.S. President Joe Biden prepares to host more than 100 participants in the initial "Summit for Democracy", China - which was not invited - has increasingly talked up the advantages of its own "whole-process democracy". Chinese state media and diplomats in recent weeks have ramped up criticism of democracy in the United States, touting what they describe as preferable outcomes in its system of "socialist democracy with Chinese characteristics" on measures ranging from COVID-19 management to social mobility. Communist Party-ruled China, widely considered to have become increasingly authoritarian under President Xi Jinping, first used the phrase "whole-process democracy" in 2019, and the concept was enshrined in law this past March. China was not asked to take part in the Dec. 9-10 event hosted by Biden, but Beijing-claimed Taiwan was. China, which will release a white paper on democracy on Dec 04, defines its version as consultative, with voting permitted at the very local level and public feedback collected before any law is implemented. The definition does not include an independent judiciary, free media, or universal suffrage for national office. Click here to read... [16]

EU’s ‘Global Gateway’ Infrastructure Push Offers Counter to China’s ‘Belt and Road’

The European Union will seek to mobilize 300 billion euros ($340 billion) in public and private infrastructure investments by 2027 to offer developing countries an alternative to China’s massive Belt and Road program. The EU’s “Global Gateway” project unveiled on Dec 01 outlines spending on digital, transport, energy and health projects. And while the proposal doesn’t mention China directly, it offers a counter to Beijing’s overseas development plan that critics say has pushed countries to unsustainable levels of indebtedness. To finance the project, the EU will use its European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus, which can make available 40 billion euros in guarantee capacity, and will offer grants of up to 18 billion euros from external assistance programs. The program will also seek to “crowd-in private capital” to boost investments, according to the final draft. Further adding to its financial tool kit, the EU is exploring the option of creating a European Export Credit Facility to complement existing credit arrangements at member states, and increase the bloc’s overall firepower in this area, according to the statement. The aim would be to help ensure a more level playing field for EU businesses in third-country markets. Click here to read... [17]

Kishida puts military strike option on table for Japan, in ‘show of standing up to China’

Japan will strengthen its national defences in the face of growing regional threats, including through the possible acquisition of the ability to attack military facilities in other countries, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in a policy speech to the Japanese parliament on Dec 06 afternoon. Kishida promised to revise the key components of national security, laid out in the National Security Strategy, the National Defence Programme Guidelines and the Medium-term Defence Programme, within the next 12 months. The prime minister also used his address to suggest that parliament had “a responsibility to seriously consider” whether the constitution should also be revised, with changes to the most fundamental elements of national law potentially giving Tokyo more leeway in the deployment of its armed forces. Perceived as a dove when he served as foreign minister under former prime minister Shinzo Abe, Kishida has nonetheless adopted many of his former boss’s hardline positions on defence and security, analysts say, with Japan’s spending on its military also rising. In late November, the cabinet earmarked 773.8 billion yen (US$6.7 billion) for defence outlays under the 2021 supplementary budget. Kishida has indicated that he is planning to increase defense spending to 2 per cent of GDP. Click here to read... [18]

Japan starts to extend range of its missiles to over 1,000 km

Japan is planning to upgrade and extend the capability of its cruise missiles to hit objects over 1,000 kilometers away, Nikkei has learned. The defense ministry aims to deploy such missiles by the second half of the 2020s. These missiles, to be developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, can be launched from land and also fitted on fighter planes and warships. Japan's missiles are now only capable of reaching 100 km to 200 km from launch point. This plan by the government, which it sees as a form of deterrence, comes amid increasing competition in missile development in the Asia-Pacific region. Tokyo says it has little choice but to strengthen the country's defense capabilities. Close neighbors China and South Korea are likely to frown on Japan's plans despite expanding their own programs. China has been increasing the number of intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can reach Japan and Guam. Beijing has, reportedly, increased the number of launchers it owns by eight times over a decade, to 82 as of 2020. Amid rising concern over the escalation of military activities by China, a report by U.S. Congress recommended a dialogue to encourage partner countries to accept the deployment of U.S. intermediate range missiles in the region, in preparation for a Taiwan emergency. Click here to read... [19]

China antenna turns Earth into giant radio station, with signals reaching Guam

The biggest antenna on the planet is up and running in central China, opening up long-distance communications with submarines as well as civilian applications, according to engineers and scientists involved in the project. The exact location of the facility has not been revealed but is believed to be somewhere in the Dabie Mountains, a protected natural reserve straddling Hubei, Anhui and Henan provinces. The project’s lead engineer Zha Ming and his colleagues, from the Wuhan Maritime Communication Research Institute, said the facility was designed to maintain underwater communications over a total range of 3,000km (1,9000 miles) – enough to reach Guam, the biggest US military base in the western Pacific Ocean. A joint experiment with Russia confirmed a ‘ping’ from the facility can also travel effectively underground. The idea of building an Earth-bound low frequency antenna dates back to the 1960s. The US navy’s Project Sanguine, for instance, planned an antenna spanning more than two-fifths of Wisconsin to command submarines around the world. The project was terminated in 2005, after failing to live up to the military’s expectations. The US turned its focus to alternative technologies, such as manipulating the atmosphere with lasers to generate low frequency waves. Click here to read... [20]

1st ASEAN-Russia navy drills send messages on AUKUS, China

Russia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations launched their first-ever joint naval exercise on Dec 01, marking a new security twist in a region roiled by territorial disputes with China and the emergence of the U.S.-led AUKUS alliance. The drills, scheduled to run until Dec 03, feature warships from seven of the 10 ASEAN member states and the Russian Pacific Fleet's Admiral Panteleyev destroyer. The exercise consists of an online and at-sea component, with the latter taking place in Indonesia's territorial waters off North Sumatra. Collin Koh, a maritime security research fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said that although the Russia-ASEAN naval exercise was unlikely to feature "high intensity war-fighting elements," it did send an important political message about the bloc's intentions. After largely disappearing from Southeast Asia following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow has moved over the past two decades to restore its military footprint. Between 2000 and 2019, Russia sold $10.7 billion worth of arms to Southeast Asia countries, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) data compiled in a report published by Singapore's ISEAS -- Yusof Ishak Institute. That made it the region's largest weapons supplier by a significant marginClick here to read... [21]

Middle East players move to detente as U.S. turns focus on China

U.S. President Joe Biden's rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan, shift of focus toward China and desire for rapprochement with regional powerhouse Iran have sparked a series of diplomatic efforts by countries in the Greater Middle East to reset relations and put aside long-standing feuds. Those political tectonic shifts began last year near the end of Republican Donald Trump's presidency, as the U.S. brokered the "Abraham Accords" that led to the normalization of ties between Israel and both the UAE and Bahrain, the first such deal since Jordan normalized relations with Israel in 1994. The shifts accelerated under Biden, as the Democrat followed through with Trump's earlier decision to fully withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan. In January, Gulf countries and Egypt ended their three-year siege against Qatar and restored ties, just two weeks before Biden took office. Even arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran have engaged in talks brokered by Iraq. Ankara also aims to mend fences with regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Egypt. "Current regional dynamics including the rapprochement efforts and normalizations process between several regional players are positive, but I don't think the motives of different players behind this development are genuine," Ali Bakir, an assistant professor at Qatar University saidClick here to read... [22]

UAE’s top security official visits Iran to develop ‘warm ties’

The UAE’s top national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan is on a visit to Iran for high-level talks that are seen as a possible sign of thawing relations between the two countries. Sheikh Tahnoon, a brother of the country’s de facto ruler and Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed, discussed improving bilateral ties and developments in regional affairs in the capital Tehran on Dec 06. He first met his counterpart Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), before meeting Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi. According to an Iranian readout of the meeting, Shamkhani said developing “warm and friendly” ties with neighbours is Iran’s top priority in foreign policy. Shamkhani proposed that the two countries should form expert working groups that would identify potential areas of boosting economic, transit, energy, and health sector relations and possible obstacles that would need to be removed. The visit comes after Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani, visited Dubai in late November to meet several senior Emirati officials. Click here to read... [23]

Western countries express concern over Afghan reprisals, Taliban reject accusations

The United States and a group of Western countries including Germany, France and Britain have expressed concern over reported killings and disappearances of former members of the Afghan security forces after the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August. In a joint statement issued over the weekend, the 21 countries plus the European Union referred to reports of such abuses documented by Human Rights Watch and others. "We underline that the alleged actions constitute serious human rights abuses and contradict the Taliban's announced amnesty," said the statement, issued by the German Foreign Ministry. "Reported cases must be investigated promptly and in a transparent manner, those responsible must be held accountable, and these steps must be clearly publicized as an immediate deterrent to further killings and disappearances," it said. Afghan Interior Ministry spokesman Sayed Khosti rejected the accusation of reprisal killings, saying no evidence had been presented. "We have had some individual cases of killings of ex-government members, but these were due to private enmity and we've arrested those involved." Human Rights Watch said in a report on Nov. 30 that Taliban forces in Afghanistan have executed or forcibly disappeared more than 100 former police and intelligence officers since taking over the country on Aug. 15, despite the proclaimed amnesty. Click here to read... [24]

France, Europeans working to open joint mission in Afghanistan - Macron

Several European countries are working on opening up a joint diplomatic mission in Afghanistan that would enable their ambassadors to return to the country, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Dec 04. Western countries have been grappling with how to engage with the Taliban after they took over Afghanistan in a lightning advance in August as U.S.-led forces were completing their pullout. The United States and other Western countries shut their embassies and withdrew their diplomats as the Taliban seized Kabul, following which the militants declared an interim government whose top members are under U.S. and U.N. sanctions. "We are thinking of an organisation between several European countries... a common location for several Europeans, which would allow our ambassadors to be present," Macron told reporters in Doha before heading to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia."This is a different demarche than a political recognition or political dialogue with the Taliban ... we will have a representation as soon as we can open," he said, adding that the still needed to iron out security issues. In a statement following talks with the Taliban a week ago, the European Union suggested it could open a mission soon. Click here to read... [25]

Myanmar court sentences ousted leader Suu Kyi to 4 years

A special court in Myanmar’s capital sentenced the country’s ousted leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, to four years in prison on Dec 06 after finding her guilty of incitement and violating coronavirus restrictions, a legal official said. The sentencing was the first in a series of cases in which the 76-year-old Nobel laureate is being prosecuted since the army seized power on Feb. 1, preventing her National League for Democracy party from starting a second five-year term in office. The incitement case involved statements posted on her party’s Facebook page after she and other party leaders had already been detained by the military, while the coronavirus charge involved a campaign appearance ahead of elections in November last year which her party overwhelmingly won. The army, whose allied party lost many seats in the election, claimed massive voting fraud, but independent election observers did not detect any major irregularities. The court’s ruling was conveyed by a legal official who insisted on anonymity for fear of being punished by the authorities. Suu Kyi’s trials are closed to the media and spectators, and her lawyers, who had been the sole source of information on the proceedings, were served with gag orders in October forbidding them from releasing information. Click here to read... [26]

Myanmar military joining hands with Indian rebels

When separatist rebels launched a lethal ambush in India’s northeastern state of Manipur on November 13, the shadowy attack acted to bring India and Myanmar’s hot-and-cold bilateral relations to a new boil. India shares a 1,600 kilometer-long, porous border with Myanmar and the mountainous terrain makes it easy for rebel fighters to slip back and forth undetected by authorities. Ethnic Naga, Manipuri and Assamese rebels from northeastern India have for years maintained bases in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region, from where they often launch attacks on Indian forces and then fade back across the border. Those sanctuaries have long been a heated point of bilateral contention, but Myanmar’s long-held policy of benign neglect appeared to shift when the Myanmar army, known as the Tatmadaw, overran one of the rebels’ main camps in January 2019. That clearance operation, which drove Naga, Manipuri and Assamese rebels from their de facto headquarters at Taga in northern Sagaing, markedly improved India-Myanmar military relations. Now, it seems that the Tatmadaw is not only again tolerating the presence of the rebel groups in Myanmar’s border areas, but is also using them to fight anti-military People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) resistance groups that have spread across the country since the coupClick here to read... [27]

Taiwan's Tsai hosts Baltic lawmakers, seeking closer cooperation

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met Nov 29 with visiting lawmakers from three Baltic nations, as all sides agreed to cooperate more closely in their shared fight against authoritarianism. Tsai received the parliamentarians from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia at the Presidential Office. Taiwan currently holds no formal diplomatic relations with any of the three Baltic states. "Taiwan and the Baltic states share a common history. We all endured authoritarian rule and, in the course of fighting for our freedom, learned how precious democracy is," Tsai said at the meeting. Tsai appeared to condemn China without mentioning the Asian power by name. "Now, as the world faces an expansion of authoritarianism and threats from disinformation, Taiwan is more than willing to share our experience in combating disinformation with our European friends," she said. "We must cooperate to safeguard our shared values and protect our free and democratic way of life." Tsai and the delegation, led by Lithuanian parliamentarian Matas Maldeikis, agreed to work toward stronger ties. "You managed to build your democracy while balancing ... a very complicated geopolitical environment," Maldeikis said. "We are here to express our solidarity with you." Click here to read... [28]

Record EU defense spending masks failure to collaborate, report says

European Union states spent nearly 200 billion euros ($225 billion) on defense in 2020, the most since records began in 2006, but joint investment by governments fell, the European Defence Agency (EDA) announced in a report on Dec 06. The EDA, an EU agency that helps the bloc's governments to develop their military capabilities, said the total spending of EU countries except for Denmark - which opts out of EU military projects - reached $198 billion, a 5 percent increase on 2019. The defense expenditure amounted to 1.5 percent of the 26 EU states' economic output, a welcome figure for the US-led NATO alliance, which has sought a 2 percent spending goal for its allies. Most EU members are also part of NATO but want to be able to act independently of the US when necessary. Proponents of stronger EU defense say the warnings have been many, from Britain's departure from the bloc to former US president Donald Trump's "America First" priorities and failing states on Europe's frontiers. However, the EDA report noted a slump in collaborative spending despite an EU defense pact signed in late 2017 to try to pool resources and end the competition between national industries that has weakened past defense efforts. Click here to read... [29]

Ball in Kim Jong-un's court for 'end of war' declaration

President Moon Jae-in's proposal of declaring an official end to the 1950-53 Korean War now appears to hinge on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, as the U.S. and China seem to have indicated their support for such a quadrilateral declaration, which could entice Pyongyang to return to talks on its denuclearization. During a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Dec 02, Moon said, "Our administration has proposed the end-of-war declaration in order to pass on a situation, in which the U.S., South Korea and North Korea are in talks, to the next administration. Close cooperation between Seoul and Washington is more important than anything else." In a separate meeting between Austin and his South Korean counterpart Suh Wook, also on Dec 02, the two sides shared the two countries' ideas on the declaration, sources said, though it was not mentioned in a joint statement released after their meeting. The comment was interpreted as South Korea and the U.S. seeking to include a clause that the declaration will not affect the armistice status of the two Koreas, thus allowing the United Nations Command in South Korea and U.S. Forces Korea to remain as they are today. Click here to read... [30]

Medical

China frets over Olympics headwinds as omicron spreads

With just two months to go until the Beijing Olympics, China is grappling with growing uncertainty over the Winter Games, including the threat of the new omicron coronavirus variant and international calls for a diplomatic boycott. At a daily briefing on Nov 30, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said omicron would "certainly bring some challenges in terms of prevention and control." China maintains strict anti-virus travel restrictions and has said it will not allow overseas spectators at the Games. China has also faced growing criticism for its alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Tibet, as well as its crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. In the latest flare-up of tensions, the Women's Tennis Association on Dec 02 decided to suspend all tournaments in China out of concern for the safety of tennis star Peng Shuai, who accused former Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli of sexual assault. China has fought back on this front, accusing the U.S. and its allies of politicizing the Olympics. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi tried to shore up support for the Olympics in a phone call with his Swiss counterpart Ignazio Cassis on Dec 03. Switzerland is where the International Olympic Committee is basedClick here to read... [31]

Europe Sees Boost in Uptake of Covid-19 Shots but Vaccine Mandates Are Still on the Table

Relentless pressure to raise vaccination rates in Europe is beginning to bear fruit as governments make delivering more Covid-19 shots the core of their strategies to slow rising infections, but pockets of resistance to the shots mean some countries are leaning toward general vaccine mandates. So far, Europe’s vaccine campaign is mainly stick and no carrot. For the past few weeks, authorities have introduced new restrictions, barring the unvaccinated from most nonessential aspects of public life and forcing them to take frequent, sometimes expensive, Covid-19 tests to carry out more activities, including going to work. In most cases, vaccination numbers have risen, though the increase can also be credited to vaccinated people getting booster shots, access to which has been eased almost everywhere. About 67% of Europeans now are fully vaccinated. Despite such progress, resistance from determined opponents of vaccines and concern about the recently discovered and potentially highly infectious Omicron variant of the virus are prompting more governments to consider making Covid-19 vaccines mandatory for all. In Germany, parliament will debate a general vaccine mandate in the coming weeks. The country had mandatory smallpox vaccination until the 1980s and recently reintroduced mandatory vaccination for measles. Click here to read... [32]

COVID-19 disruptions caused surge in malaria deaths: WHO

Pandemic-related disruptions caused tens of thousands more malaria deaths in 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Dec 6 but added that urgent action had averted a far worse scenario. In a fresh report, the UN health agency found that COVID-19 had reversed progress against the mosquito-borne disease, which was already plateauing before the pandemic struck. There were an estimated 241 million malaria cases worldwide in 2020 - 14 million more than a year earlier - and the once rapidly falling death toll swelled to 627,000 last year, jumping 69,000 from 2019. Approximately two-thirds of those additional deaths were linked to disruptions in the provision of malaria prevention, diagnosis and treatment during the pandemic, the WHO said. But it stressed that the situation "could have been far worse". The UN agency pointed to its projection early in the pandemic that the service disruptions could cause malaria deaths to double in 2020. "Thanks to the hard work of public health agencies in malaria-affected countries, the worst projections of COVID's impact have not come to pass," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement. Click here to read... [33]