Chinese Moves on the Brahmaputra: Threat or Hype

Water—one of the most important natural resource on earth—has taken centre-stage in the North East and is steadily becoming a weapon of geopolitics. It began as a mass movement engineered by the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti and its demand to halt all mega dam projects in the North East. While some of the concerns are bonafide, the fact of the matter is that the rich blue resource of the region—awashed as it is with the white waters from the Tibetan plateau—would not only be a power reservoir for the North East, but also for the rest of the country. The protest that got underway in Assam, spearheaded by the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti, against the construction of mega dams is leading to a novel conflict between development and social sustenance.

The issue came into focus with the apprehension that China is undertaking a mammoth project to build five dams in the Shannan Prefecture (Lhoka) in the Tibet Autonomous Region. The precise locations according to reports were to be Zangmu, Zhongda, Langzhen, Gyatsa and Jieuxu. The exercise is slated to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra (Yarlung-Tsangpo in Tibet) to the People’s Republic’s water scare north-western and northern provinces. With an expected capacity of 510 MW, the first enterprise is expected to be the 3260 metres Zangmu project, which is already underway. There is great apprehension that the diversion of the waters would affect the downstream in North East India: China has denied that it would be so, stating that it would not reduce downstream water flow. The damming of the Brahmaputra, which started on 12 November 2010, marked the formal beginning of the 7.9 billion RMB Zangmu Hydropower Station. China is known to be on a “dam-constructing exercise” on its important rivers, for instance the well-known Three Gorges Project across the Yangtze River. The urgency of undertaking such projects is to correct the uneven distribution of water in the country, which originated with Mao Zedong’s plan in 1950s to transfer water from the south to the north. The history of the People’s Republic South-North Water Transfer Project is a more than a decade old enterprise in order to maximise the water resources available in China. The plan is to be achieved by implementing the South North Water Diversion Project. Whereas the primary thrust is geared towards the diversion of the waters from the Yangtze River to the Hai and the Yellow Rivers, the sketch to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra River, located, as aforesaid, in Tibet’s Yarlung Tsangpo is a cause a alarm for not only India, but environmentalist all over the globe. The intention to divert the waters from the south to the north is to feed the industrialised areas of Northern China, which as a result of low rainfall has resulted in dry rivers.

The plan to diver the waters of Brahmaputra would affect over 140 million people who are dependent on the red river. For all practical purposes, it would be India and Bangladesh which would have to bear the brunt of the proposed damming and diversion.

However, Li Chaoyi, the chief engineer of China Huaneng Group, which is the prime contractor of the dam project, has stated that the river would not be affected by the construction of the dam. Quoting in the official Chinese news agency, Xinhua, Chaoyi stated, “After it becomes operational, the river water will flow downstream through water turbines and sluices. So the water volume downstream will not be cut.” He also stated that environmental protection would be a priority. Indeed, the issue of the dam—that has been an cause of great concern for India—was taken up in the Indo-China strategic dialogue that took place between Indian foreign secretary, Nirupama Rao and China’s vice-foreign minister, Zhang Zhijun in Beijing. Rao stated that she had taken up the issue of the dam, and was reportedly reassured by Zhijun that “it was not a project designed to divert the water and affect the welfare and availability of water to the countries in the lower reaches.” But, notwithstanding such assurances, the fact of the matter is that there is widespread concern about the “diversion.”

Furthermore, it is to be noted that Beijing has embarked on an inequitable “development” project in Tibet. Tibet’s soaring altitude, rugged terrain and inhospitable climate is geared towards the sustenance of livestock farming and traditional agriculture, activities that have kept the high landscape of the “Roof of the World” more or less intact. But Beijing’s policies of fast-track development driven by an industrial model that is not in consonance with Tibet’s topography are destroying the delicate ecosystem of the Tibetan plateau. It is also threatening to ruthlessly alter the natural hydrological regime of Tibet, which may deprive the indigenous population of their land were environmental crisis to unexpectedly come upon them. Experts are also of the opinion that increased urbanisation and infrastructural development, by way of constructions like the Qinghai-Tibet railway could add to the undesirable effects of global warming. This would have a direct impact on the rivers that meander into Arunachal Pradesh and the crucial glacial mass which is fast receding. Such developments would ascertain that the waters that feed the riparian states would soon run dry and sound the death knell for India and Bangladesh.

Wary of the downstream impact of the dam that is being constructed by China in the Tibet Autonomous Region, the Assam government has decided to move New Delhi and take up the issue with China once again.

In the meantime, in the face of both the Chinese dam project and the one that is being taken up in the region by way of the Lower Subansiri Hydro-Electric Project by NHPC in Gerukamukh, several political formations including the BJP has demanded a halt to the project, stating that the construction of the dam would pose grave danger to the people of Assam’s Dhemaji, Lakhimpur and Jorhat. The BJP has also pointed to the high seismic potential that threatens the region, and has asked for a correct water treaty between India and China.

The government has instituted an Inter-Ministerial Group under the chairmanship of the secretary, ministry of water resources in order to study the sub-basin environment impact in the Brahmaputra. New Delhi has also clarified that majority of the hydro-electrical projects that are being taken up in Arunachal Pradesh are to be implemented as run-of-river schemes and would have very limited roles in triggering floods in downstream areas. But, a correct feasibility study of the schemes that are being planned must be taken up for the Lohit basin by the ministry of environment and forest. Indeed, the concerned minister, Jairam Ramesh had assured that he would be taking up the issue on behalf the people of the region with New Delhi. But, as of now water security has become a veritable weapon in not only the hands of the common people, but political parties as well.

But the fact of the matter is that India has been largely downplaying Chinese intentions in the Brahmaputra, stating that the construction site is 1,100 km away from the country's boundary. Water Resources minister, P.K. Bansal also stated that “It's a small dam and no reservoir as such. They already have such 15 dams there which they are using for local purposes." Furthermore, it was stated that there has been no evidence of any diversion. But, agencies like the National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) have reportedly confirmed that China is constructing a dam on its side of the Brahmaputra River. In a presentation made before the Committee of Secretaries, the NRSA presented concrete evidence suggesting construction activities, movements of trucks, and excavations being carried out in and around the Zangmu site.

However, notwithstanding the evidence that has been provided the NRSA, the ministry of Water Resources has recently submitted that the ongoing Chinese activity on the Brahmaputra may not have any significant impact on the river water downstream in India. But MEA has taken a different view that it is not fully convinced that the Chinese activity is not a cause of concern, and has asked for further review of the matter.

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Published Date : 24^th May, 2011