VIF News Digest: International Developments (17 – 23 Sept 2018)

USA

The sum of 2+2 India-US dialogue, 19 Sept 2018

Many in India’s strategic community could not contain their euphoria at the signing of the Communication Compatibility and Security Arrangements Agreement (COMCASA), the India-specific formulation of Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum Agreement (CISMOA), during the just-concluded 2+2 India-US dialogue. Some of them even articulated imaginary benefits, including how it would make India’s defence platforms, irrespective of the country of their origin, to talk to each other. However, if one cares to read the fine print, which embeds the less-spoken about reasons why the US pushed hard for the ‘foundational agreements’ like CISMOA, the exhilaration will be subdued.

The protagonists of the agreement would have us believe that it could be a game-changer for India. The reasons they profess range from a new role that Washington is envisaging for India to contain China to how the agreement would become an open sesame to the treasure trove of US defence technology. Most of the reasons have, however, needs more rational grounding. Click here to read... [2]

India in a Catch-22 situation on free trade pact with the US, 16 Sept 2018

The Government seems to be in two minds about whether it should go in for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US. While many officials are against a pact as they believe it will hurt domestic industry and agriculture, there is a small but influential group in the Government that favours an FTA, according to two sources aware of the developments. “There must be a larger debate and consultations involving other ministries and departments as well as industry and farmer groups in case the Commerce Ministry wants to get into negotiations on a free trade pact with the US. A trade agreement with such a powerful nation will have huge economic as well as political repercussions and is not to be taken lightly,” a Delhi-based trade expert told Business Line. Although India, because of its indecision on the matter, has not officially spelled out its intention to get into a free trade dialogue with the US, there are indications from the White House hinting at some informal talks on trade deals already happening between the two countries.

US President Donald Trump said at a recent event in South Dakota that India had expressed interest in a trade deal with the US for the first time. Click here to read... [3]

India, US closing in on package deal to remove trade irritants, 18 Sept 2018

Indian farmers and US manufacturers of medical devices could be among the main winners in a trade package under negotiation, as Washington and New Delhi look to remove long-standing irritants to ties, sources familiar with the talks said.

Having skirmished for months over tit-for-tat tariffs on steel and some agricultural products, the two sides began talks in June that also cover India’s concerns over US steel tariffs and US problems with Indian tariffs on imported IT equipment. “We are closely negotiating a discrete package of trade issues. It will amount to a pretty substantive agreement,” said a source with knowledge of the negotiations. Click here to read... [4]

US Air Force seeks largest expansion since Cold War, 17 Sept 2018

The US Air Force has determined it will need a nearly 25 percent boost in combat squadrons in order to support a major war with another great power such as China or Russia, signaling the largest potential increase in air power for the United States since the end of the Cold War.

Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said the service wants to grow to 386 operational squadrons by around 2025-2030, compared with the 312 it has today. The rise would support Defense Secretary James Mattis’s shift in focus from the fight against terrorism in the Middle East to potential conflicts with near-peer competitors. Click here to read... [5]

RUSSIA

Russia: Japan needs time on peace treaty proposal, 17 Sept 2018

Russia thinks Japan needs time to take a stance about President Vladimir Putin’s peace treaty proposal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Sunday. Such an initiative brings complicated matters to Japan both on foreign and domestic policy fronts, Peskov said on state television. It is quite understandable and normal to take some time before coming to a decision, he said.

At an economic conference in Russia’s Vladivostok on Wednesday in which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was present, Putin proposed that Tokyo and Moscow sign a peace treaty without any preconditions by the end of this year. The proposal drew controversy in Japan. On Wednesday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said Tokyo remains committed to resolving a territorial dispute with Moscow before signing a peace treaty. Peskov said Abe himself did not respond to the proposal. Click here to read... [6]

US and Russia clash over enforcing UN sanctions on North Korea, 17 Sept 2018

The United States and Russia clashed Monday over enforcing UN sanctions against North Korea, with the US ambassador accusing Moscow of "cheating" and Russia's envoy accusing Washington of "political ill-intent." The acrimonious meeting of the Security Council was called by US Ambassador Nikki Haley, who accused Russia of pressuring independent UN experts to alter a report on implementation of sanctions against North Korea that she said contained "evidence of multiple Russian sanctions violations."

The sharp disagreement marked a rare break in what has been a united response by the UN's most powerful body to North Korea's escalating nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Click here to read... [7]

Putin says Israel didn't down Russian aircraft; Netanyahu offers condolences, 19 Sept 2018

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Israel was not responsible for the downing of a Russian military aircraft during a strike on Syria Monday night. "It looks like a chain of tragic circumstances, because the Israeli plane didn't shoot down our jet," he said. When asked about comparisons to Turkey's downing of a Russian aircraft in 2015, Putin said: "This is a different situation. The Turkish fighter jet knowingly downed our plane."

The Russian president noted that the Defense Ministry's statement, vowing a retaliatory response, was "fully coordinated" with him. "The retaliatory measures will be directed above all to boosting the security of military men and installations in Syria", he said. "These will be measures everyone will see.” Click here to read... [8]

The loss of a Russian plane in Syria reveals how Putin is strangely powerless to protect his own troops, 19 Sept 2018

Russia grappled with a tragedy on Tuesday after its ally, Syria, mistakenly shot down one of its planes flying above the Mediterranean, and it shows how Russian President Vladimir Putin is strangely powerless to protect his own people.

After Russia's Il-20 went down on Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry quickly blamed Israel for the downing of the jet by a Syrian missile. Israel had attacked Syria with low flying jets evading and jamming radar during a prolonged missiles trike. Syria missile defenses, unable to get a fix on the Israeli fighters, instead spotted a large, slower-moving Russian spy plane flying overhead, locked on, and killed 15 Russians with a Russian-made missile. Click here to read... [9]

Putin hands state oil company to Chechnya, 19 Sept 2018

President Vladimir Putin has awarded Chechnya ownership of a state-owned company that controls the republic’s oil-refining and petrochemical industry that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has long sought to acquire.

Putin first agreed to transfer property belonging to the Chechenneftekhimprom Oil Company to the Caucasus Republic in 2015 after a request from Kadyrov, though in 2016 the Chechen leader reportedly complained that the transfer had not happened. In his initial request, Kadyrov claimed that Russia’s biggest oil producer Rosneft, which operated the Grozny-based company’s assets, was misusing its land and resources. Click here to read... [10]

Rosneft plans to supply up to 50 mn tonnes of oil to China in 2018, 18 Sept 2018

Rosneft plans to deliver up to 50 mn tonnes of oil to China in 2018, the Company said after the meeting of the Company’s CEO Igor Sechin with First Vice Premier of the State Council of China Han Zheng. "Partnership with China for us is a deliberate strategic choice. Rosneft sells one third of all exported oil to China. This year the volume of our supplies can reach up to 50 mn tonnes," Sechin said according to the company’s press service.

"We have reached a great deal of mutual trust with our Chinese partners evidenced, in particular, by the agreements signed at the Eastern Economic Forum. We have great hopes for expanding cooperation with the Russian-Chinese Energy Forum. It will be held in November this year, 44 Russian and 35 Chinese companies are invited," the Company’s report said. Click here to read... [11]

Russia rejects Israeli findings on downed plane, 22 Sept 2018

The Israeli Haaretz newspaper said on Friday that the Russians had not accepted Israel's findings, which considered Russia and Syria responsible for the downing of a Russian Ilyushin-20 reconnaissance aircraft some 35 km off the coast of ‎Latakia as it was returning to a nearby Russian base earlier in the week. 15 Russian servicemen were killed in the incident.

Haaretz’ report came after an Israeli delegation led by Amikam Norkin, the regime’s air force commander, visited Moscow to brief Russian officials on Tel Aviv’s initial investigation of the incident. The paper said the visit failed to defuse the crisis and the Kremlin rejected the Israeli conclusion that Syrian forces were to blame for the incident. During their meetings in Moscow, Norkin’s delegation claimed that the Syrian military had fired more than 20 missiles – including the missile that hit the Russian plane – “in an unprofessional manner.” Click here to read... [12]

Russia to study Israeli data related to downed plane, 19 Sept 2018

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted Israel's offer to share detailed information on the Israeli airstrike in Syria that triggered fire by Syrian forces which downed a Russian reconnaissance plane, the Kremlin said Wednesday. Syrian forces mistook the Russian Il-20 for Israeli aircraft, killing all 15 people aboard Monday night. Russia's Defense Ministry blamed the plane's loss on Israel, but Putin sought to defuse tensions, pointing at "a chain of tragic accidental circumstances."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Putin on Tuesday to express sorrow over the death of the plane's crew and blamed Syria. Syrian President Bashar Assad sent Putin a telegram Wednesday offering his condolences and putting the blame on Israeli "aggression," the official SANA news agency said. Click here to read... [13]

Key political document to be signed at Russia-India summit in October — ambassador, 19 Sept 2018

A major political document will be approved at the summit meeting between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in October, Russia’s Ambassador in New Delhi Nikolai Kudryashov told reporters on Wednesday.

According to the diplomat, the document will be in the form of a joint declaration or statement. "We hope that a major political document will be adopted and published. There [we] will enshrine our common views on global development, international law, multi-polarity, political solutions to crises and non-application of sanctions, except those passed by the United Nations Security Council," the ambassador said.

The document will reflect the two countries’ interest in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), BRICS (comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and RIC (comprising Russia, India and China), he added. Click here to read... [14]

New Development Bank’s board approves three projects worth $825 mn in Russia, India, 20 Sept 2018

The board of directors of BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB) approved three infrastructure and sustainable development projects in India and Russia with loans aggregating $825 mn at its 16th meeting in Shanghai, NDB said in a statement. "The board approved a non-sovereign loan of $300 mn to Sibur Holding for environmentally sustainable infrastructure development related to ZapSibNefteKhim project," the statement said. NDB will provide financing "including reimbursement of expenses for construction of utilities including water treatment facilities, transport and logistics infrastructure," the financial organisation noted.

The NDB will also provide two loans ($350 mn and $175 mn) to the Government of the Republic of India for rehabilitating major district roads with a total length of about 2,000 km to improve connectivity of the rural interior with the national and state highway networks and to realize the full benefits of upgrading the state highways and major districts roads, through constructing and upgrading about 350 bridges in the State of Madhya Pradesh. Click here to read... [15]

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Trump does about-face on Nord Stream 2 sanctions, 20 Sept 2018

After China announced that it would slap 10 percent duties on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, Washington found itself in a vulnerable position. Chinese tariffs undermine Trump's game plan to turn the US into a global energy leader. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in this context Trump's statement that he does not intend to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2, despite the recent statements by US Energy Secretary Rick Perry, has turned out to be an odd surprise.

Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta admit that Beijing has dealt a painful blow to Washington's ambitions, but they specify that in any case, the US is still far from being a global energy leader. "If we are talking about exports of US LNG, then this is simply wishful thinking. The US has customers for very limited volumes of LNG. In fact, 28 bn cubic meters of exports per year are mere crumbs against the backdrop of the volume of several hundred billion cubic meters a year that are required by China and Europe," Deputy Director of Alpari analytical department Natalia Milchakova told the newspaper. "When Russian gas comes to China through the Power of Siberia, China will not need US LNG," the expert added. Click here to read... [16]

AFRICA

More than twenty three killed in a spate of mob attack in Burayu: allAfrica, 17 September 2018

The number of civilians killed in in Burayu in a spate of day and night organised attacks has reached at least twenty three according to the Oromia region police commission Commissioner General Alemayehu Ejigu. The number could increase, he said.

The attacks, which happened in several places in and around Burayu, 19 km west of Addis Abeba in the Oromia Special Zone Surrounding Addis Abeba, have in most parts started on Friday; others say the first signs have began emerging on Thursday. However, a full scale attack that lasted for hours on Saturday to Sunday night had seen many brutally killed, maimed and displaced. It also included "organised robbery", according to Abaynesh, who is separated from her three children (one of whom only four years old). Speaking to Addis Standard, Abaynesh said she left her house on Friday in search of safety after attackers have "invaded our neighborhood." Click here to read... [17]

Uganda accuses EU Parliament of meddling in its internal affairs: Reuters, 17 September 2018

Uganda’s government on Monday accused the European Union (EU) Parliament of meddling in its internal affairs after the legislator passed a resolution deploring the alleged torture of opposition politicians in the East African country. Robert Kyagulanyi, a Ugandan pop star and lawmaker, and MP Francis Zaake were allegedly tortured after they were arrested last month on suspicion of participating in stoning the motorcade of President Yoweri Museveni.

The Government has denied that security staff tortured the two men, saying the injuries visible on their bodies could have been sustained in scuffles as they tried to resist arrest. Click here to read... [18]

Eritrea, Djibouti leaders hold historic meeting in Saudi Arabia: africanews, 18 September 2018

Eritrea’s president Isaias Afwerki met his Djibouti counterpart, Ismail Omar Guelleh in Saudi Arabia, one day after the Gulf nation recognised the peace efforts of Afwerki and Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed. Djibouti and Eritrea, normalised relations two weeks ago after a delegation of Eritrean, Somali and Ethiopian foreign ministers initiated dialogue to resolve a long-standing border dispute.

The disputed land in question is the Dumeira Mountain and Dumeira Island which Djibouti claims is being illegally occupied by Eritrea. While Djibouti had petitioned the United Nations and the African Union to ‘facilitate an agreement between the two countries, Guelleh on Tuesday said his country has always favoured dialogue as a means to resolve the dispute. Click here to read... [19]

Burundi threatens to quit UN Human Rights Council, sue critics: Reuters, 18 September 2018

Burundi, beset by accusations of crimes against humanity, threatened on Monday to withdraw from the UN Human Rights Council and sue its critics. A UN Commission of Inquiry, set up in 2016, published a detailed 272-page report that said the government and its supporters were responsible for crimes against humanity.

The Central African state has refused to cooperate with the three commissioners and last week declared them to be personae non grata. Burundian Ambassador Renovat Tabu told the Council that the report was “full of lies” and “politically motivated” and said it had “no regard for states, peoples and leaders”. Click here to read... [20]

Zambia aid - UK suspends funding over corruption fears: BBC News, 18 September 2018

The UK has frozen aid funding to Zambia, after its government admitted that $4.3m (£3.3m) meant for poor families had gone missing. The move follows allegations of corruption within President Edgar Lungu's administration.

The UK takes a "zero-tolerance approach to fraud and corruption", the UK's Department for International Development (DfID) said in a statement. Click here to read... [21]

Zimbabwe seeks $35 million to fight cholera outbreak, 19 September 2018

Zimbabwe is appealing to individual citizens and local companies for $35 million to help fight a cholera outbreak that has killed 31 and infected more. The worst cholera outbreak in a decade has exposed the problem of decaying urban infrastructure that became synonymous with the rule of Robert Mugabe who was removed after a coup in November and replaced by President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

The Government has raised $29 million, half from private companies and foreign aid agencies, out of a target of $64.1 million needed for vaccinations, drugs, clean water and better water and sewer pipes, said Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube. Click here to read... [22]

Lake Victoria, Tanzania: Dozens drown in ferry capsize - BBC News, 1 September 2018

At least 42 people have died after a ferry carrying hundreds of people capsized on Lake Victoria, Tanzania. One official told the Reuters news agency the number who drowned could be more than 200. Rescue efforts have been halted until dawn on Friday. The MV Nyerere ferry overturned near the shore between the islands of Ukora and Bugolora. It is thought the overloaded vessel toppled over when crowds on board moved to one side as it docked.

Officials have said the ferry was carrying more than 400 passengers. About 100 people were rescued while 32 are said to be in a critical condition. Exact figures, though, are yet to be confirmed - Reuters said the person who dispensed tickets for the journey also died, with the machine recording the data lost. Click here to read... [23]