Referendum: Panacea or Disaster?

The two referendums in Kurdistan and Catalonia have attracted world attention. They were held in different geographies, and the historical context is different. But there is a common element. Both test the limits of scope of self-determination in a democracy. The reaction clearly shows that the international community no longer has the appetite for exercise of self-determination leading to secession, and break-up of established States. The process is still unfolding. But the major trends are clear.

The referendum in the Kurdish region of Iraq was called by Barzani, President of Iraqi Kurdistan on 25th September, 2017. The outcome saw 72 % turn-out, with 92 % of those voting opting for independence. The referendum in Catalonia saw lower turn-out of 43 % with 90 % voting for independence.

Kurdish Referendum

The referendum in the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq was opposed by Iraqi central government, as well as both the immediate neighbours. In the wake of the vote, Turkish President threatened to cut-off the oil pipe-line running from Kurdish region through Turkey. Iran massed troops on the Kurdish border. The Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared closure of air space for international flights to and from the Kurdish region. He also announced that Iraqi personnel will be deployed to control the border crossings, which the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) runs. On a complaint by the Iraqi government, the Iraqi Supreme Court asked for suspension of referendum. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) nevertheless, went ahead with the vote. The Iraqi government’s stand was supported by Iraq’s top Shia leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who rejected the referendum.

The referendum failed to win US support. The US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, in a statement on 29^th September reaffirmed that the “The United States does not recognize the Kurdistan Regional Government’s unilateral referendum held on Monday. The vote and the results lack legitimacy and we continue to support a united, federal, democratic and prosperous Iraq”. The statement went on to advice against use of force by Iraqi central government or Iraq’s neighbors. Regardless of US caution, the Iraqi forces have since advanced, and seized Kirkuk. The US Secretary of State’s statement went on to state, “The fight against ISIS/ Daesh is not over, and extremist groups are seeking to exploit instability and discord. We urge our Iraqi partners to remain focused on defeating ISIS/Daesh”. Weakening of the front against Daesh is inevitable though, as the Kurdish ground forces were being used in Syria to cut-off ISIS lines of communication.

Catalonian Referendum

Mr. Puigdemont, the President of the Catalonian regional government, called for a referendum on 1^st October. The referendum was opposed by the Spanish Prime Minister Mr. Rajoy, who pledged that it would not take place. Riot squads of the Spanish national police, and the Civil Guard, used force, which reportedly caused injuries to hundreds, including policemen. Following the vote, on 10th October, Mr. Puigdemont first assumed the mandate to proclaim independence, then suspended the declaration of independence, to allow for negotiations. Behind this contradiction, lies the pulls and pressures of real politic.

Catalan is one of the most prosperous provinces of Spain. It has however, a sense of linguistic discrimination. Spanish remains the only official language of Spain. Whether this sense of grievance can be addressed within Spain with greater autonomy, or requires creation of a new State, is the choice. The Spanish Constitution of 1978 granted powers of self-government to Catalonia. But the regional autonomy does not extend to secession. The Catalonian regional parliament had passed “self-determination referendum law” in September. This was declared by the Spanish Supreme Court against the national sovereignty and "indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation." The Spanish Prime Minister is seeking to invoke Article 155 of the constitution. He has announced that he will sack the Catalan Government and call for new elections within six months. Article 155 gives the Spanish government the powers to take exceptional measures. The proposed measures are now to be approved by the Spanish Senate.

The EU Summit in Brussels, which was held on 20^th October, did not take up Catalonia for discussion, despite condemnation by the Belgian Prime Minister of violence by the Madrid police. The EU Council President Donald Tusk, stated that the bloc’s 27 other leaders may have their ‘evaluations, opinions, assessments, but formally speaking there’s no space for the EU interventions here.” Antonio Tajani, President of the European Parliament, was just as categorical: ‘No one in Europe will recognize an independent Catalonia.”

Implications

Kurdish referendum may have implication not only for Iraq’s territorial integrity, but also for Turkey, Syria and Iran. All three of them have Kurdish populations concentrated in border regions. Though the proponents of the referendum did not call for greater Kurdistan, but the neighbours may fear that such a State, once it comes into being, will attract Kurdish minorities in those countries also. In case of Catalonia, the referendum does not create any threat for neighboring States. Nevertheless, they did not receive any encouragement either from the EU, or Spain’s neighbors.

Both the Kurdish region and Catalonia are land-locked. Both have substantial resources. Kurdish region accounts for 30 % of Iraq’s oil resources, though it does not have any independent outlet. Its oil exports takes place through Turkey, which has its own Kurdish population. Catalonia is the richest province in Spain. Since the referendum results were declared, both the regions have seen their economic fortunes plummeting without improvement in political options. Kurdish region of Iraq in fact lost control of Kirkuk to Iraqi government forces. Kirkuk was occupied by Peshmurgas, the Kurdish militia, since the onset of ISIS. It had the region’s largest oil reserves, as well as a refinery.

South Sudan

While Kurdish and Catalonian referendums are work in progress, what about the referendums, which have actually created a State? South Sudan is a case in point, where 99% of South Sudanese voted for independence. This was the oil bearing region of Sudan. But the oil pipe-line to port Sudan for export run through Sudanese territory. Since independence, South Sudan has got enmeshed in a dispute with Sudan for pipe-line tariff. In the meantime, a civil war has erupted between Dinka and Nuer tribes bringing oil production down steeply.

The outcome of the Kurdish referendum has been rejected by Turkey, Iran and Iraq alike. It failed to win US support. Catalonia’s referendum failed to find any support within EU. South Sudan achieved independence, only to plunge in worse crisis. The solution to political, economic or social grievance is not to further atomisation of societies, and multi-ethnic societies.

(Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF)