India Enhances its Missile Deterrence Capabilities

With successful fourth test of India’s AGNI-V, an Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that has a range of 5000 kilometers plus India strengthened its missile deterrence capabilities. The three-stage, solid propellant surface-to-surface missile was test-fired from a mobile launcher from launch Complex-4 of the Integrated Test Range located in Abdul Kalam Island off the Odisha Coast. Thus AGNI-V is now fit for user trials for induction into Strategic Forces Command.

AGNI V definitely reflects the tremendous growth India has made since the time when Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) was launched in early 1980’s. Taking off from the AGNI series of missile development the first test of AGNI-V was conducted in April 2012 and by January 2015 three successful tests of AGN-V had been carried out to check its parameters and evaluate its capabilities. As in the latest test and in the previous tests the ICBM was able to hit the target within a few meters of the designated point. For a missile to be successful the ‘Circular error of Probability’ has to be within 100 to 200 meters. Further, this was the second canisterised test of the missile which gives it all-weather and all-terrain mobile launch capability and also indicates its readiness for induction into the missile force. The fact that the missile is rail and road mobile adds to its flexibility and survivability profile. Such qualities in a nuclear capable missile become inescapable when India has a declared ‘No First Us’ doctrine.

Because of envelope of its range AGNI-V can reach almost the entire area in Asia and so it has implications for the emerging strategic balance in Asia. China, as a response to the test, has observed that there should be a ‘strategic balance and stability in South Asia’ averring that India and China, as emerging economies, were not rivals but partners. The fact that China has propped up Pakistan in nuclear and missile fields for long is well known and well documented. What India is looking for is strategic balance and stability in Asia and not merely South Asia.

While China has been improving its nuclear and missile arsenal both qualitatively and quantitatively as an ostensible response to the US capabilities, it has also kept an eye on India’s advances in this arena. In January 2010 when China had carried out its first Ground-based Midcourse Missile Defence (GMD) test, some analysts suggested that it could also be a message to India in response to India’s continued testing of the Agni-III and an eagerness to develop the Agni-V ICBM, whose logical targets could only be in China. The second GMD test in January 2013 by China had come after India’s AGNI-V’s first test of April 2012 which could be partly seen as a response to India’s increasing capabilities in the missile field. Chinese media at that time had even suggested that India has under-reported the range of Agni-V. Though Chinese officials usually downplay and discount any credible strategic missile threat from India, yet they have continued to strengthen their missile defence capabilities.

It also needs to be understood that both the US and Russia possess large number of missiles of varying ranges which can overwhelm the Chinese Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) through saturation strikes, thus reducing the effectiveness of China’s strategic deterrence. However, China’s evolving BMD capabilities have serious implications for India’s strategic deterrence. Therefore, quality and quantity of missiles is of fundamental importance for developing India’s ‘Credible Minimum Deterrence’. Thus rises the need for developing Maneouvering Ee-entry Vehicles (MaRV) and Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV), which combined with warheads interspersed with decoys and other counter measures could add considerable value and worth to India’s strategic deterrence. During modeling and simulation tests it has been shown that BMD could be only effective against a limited number of missiles or warheads, and thus the claims by the U.S. that their BMD is meant for countries like North Korea and Iran.

There are some reports that indicate that the DRDO is in the process of developing MIRV capabilities for AGNI-V with two to six warheads. There is also the possibility of AGNI-VI being developed with improved range and performance and fitted with MIRVed warheads. Further, there is also the requirement of improving the ranges and capabilities of India’s Submarine Llaunched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM). While India has already tested a subsurface-launched ballistic missile ‘Sagarika’ (K-15) with about 700 kilometers range and its integration with nuclear submarine INS Arihant is in progress, there are reports that a longer version of the same has also been tested. Called K-4, the sub-surface launched the missile is said to have a range of 3000 kilometers.

Needless to say that India needs to complete operationlaisation of the third leg of the nuclear triad on a fast track. Besides, the range of submarine launched missiles needs to be improved to 5000 kilometers and above. There are many problems like reducing the length-to-weight ratio of missiles for integrating these with the submarines, that need to be overcome. It is likely that it may take next 8 to 10 years before an effective nuclear triad of India emerges. However, given the rapid progress that has been made in the field of missile technology, India may achieve this objective much before the above prediction.