President Rahmon’s Visit: India-Tajikistan Relations Reach New Heights

State Visit

India and Tajikistan have nurtured warm and strong relations through the ages. Tajikistan is in India’s extended neighborhood, and is a geo-politically significant country. Indo-Tajik friendship is underlined by civilizational connect, economic and cultural ‘give and take’, people-to-people contact, and common regional interests and threats. In the aftermath of Tajikistan’s independence in 1991, the two countries have developed robust diplomatic contacts.

President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Mr. Emomali Rahmon, was on a State Visit to India from 14-18 December 2016. This was the sixth official visit of President Rahmon to India. In his last visit in 2012, India-Tajikistan relationship was elevated to the level of Strategic Partnership, making Tajikistan third Central Asian country to sign such agreement with India, first two being Kazakhstan (2009) and Uzbekistan (2011). Current visit of President Rahmon, which was marked by enhanced economic and security cooperation, took the bilateral relationship at higher level.

Tajikistan: Brief Introduction

Tajikistan is one of the five Central Asian Republics (CARs), which became independent in 1991 as a result of the Soviet disintegration. Tajikistan is in India’s extended neighborhood, and can be called India’s ‘Gateway to Central Asia’. A narrow strip of Afghan territory, called the Wakhan Corridor1, separates India from Tajikistan. Tajikistan is a landlocked country, bordering China in the east, Afghanistan in the south, Uzbekistan in the west and Kyrgyzstan in the north. As a matter of fact, Tajikistan is the only CAR which borders China as well as Afghanistan. The strategic location of Tajikistan makes it a significant country.

Almost 93% of Tajikistan’s territory is rough, remote and mountainous; only exception being the Ferghana Valley2, which is fertile and densely populated. Hilly regions of Tajikistan are source to number of rivers, like Syr Darya, Zerafshan, Panj and Vakhsh (which becomes Amu Darya after its confluence with Panj). These rivers feed major chunk of Central Asian population. Being the upper riparian state, Tajikistan enjoys control over its waters. Share of water resources has become the bone of contention in Tajikistan’s relations with its neighbor Uzbekistan. Tajikistan has considerable untapped potential of hydropower generation.

The Tajik civilization traces its origins in the earlier Persian inhabitants of the region. Their history goes beyond the territories of present-day Tajikistan. Persians dominated the Central Asian region in ancient times, and were at the zenith of power during the Samanid rule in 9th and 10th century. Their dominance was challenged by the Turkic migrants from eastern and northern parts of the region. History of politico-cultural dichotomy between the Turkic groups (comprising all major ethnicities of Central Asia) and the Tajiksh as influenced Central Asian society, culture and polity. The whole region came under the Tsarist rule in 1860s, and later under the Soviet rule in 1920s.

Tajikistan in its current territorial form was created in 1929, as part of the ‘National Territorial Delimitation’ program of the Soviets. This was for the first time that the Tajik Republic was given definite borders and a name denoting majority ethnic group. During the Soviet rule, its external links with the outside world were limited. Tajikistan was the remotest part of the Soviet Union, so also the poorest and the most backward republic. After Soviet Disintegration in 1991, Tajikistan emerged as an independent republic on the world map. However, outbreak of Civil War (1992-1997), between the ruling regime on one hand and Communists and Islamists on the other, further delayed the socio-political and economic growth of the nation.

In the post-independence period, Tajikistan adopted a secular and democratic constitution with presidential form of government. President Emomali Rahmon has ruled the country since independence. In a nation-wide referendum in May 2016, he was allowed unlimited terms to the presidential office3, even though constitution allows only two terms for the President. Constitution clearly prescribed the division of power among the executives and legislature; however, in reality, president holds enormous power.

Population of Tajikistan is about 8.5 million, among which approximately 85% are Sunni Muslims. Ethnic-Tajiks form majority comprising about 80% of the population. There is considerable presence of other ethnic minorities like Uzbeks, Russians, Kyrgyzs, Tatars, Afghans and Uighurs. Most of the minorities are scattered; but there are specific pockets where certain minorities are in majority. For example, Uzbeks are in majority in the Khojent province in the Ferghana Valley. This complex demographic composition of Tajikistan has influenced its post-independence politics. Moreover, considerable Tajiks live outside the territory of Tajikistan; they form significant minority in Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. This aspect has impacted Tajikistan’s relations with its neighboring countries.

Tajikistan has recently completed 25 years of independence. In these years, the country has emerged as an important regional actor. After successful peacemaking and reconciliation post- Civil War (1997), Tajikistan has maintained relative peace and stability. Moreover, it has played significant role in tackling the forces of extremism and radicalism. During US and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) war in Afghanistan (2001-14), Tajikistan was one of the frontline states. French Air Base was created near Dushanbe airport in 2002 for supplying arms and ammunitions to the NATO forces fighting in Afghanistan; this air base was closed in 2013. Also, NATO’s logistical corridor, the Northern Distribution Network, which connected Black Sea ports with Afghanistan, ran through Tajikistan and other CARs. Tajikistan has been actively involved in various multilateral mechanisms for restoring peace and stability in Afghanistan.

Tajikistan can be considered as a classic example of big power competition. Being a poor and underdeveloped country, it has been seeking aid and investments from all over the world. Russia, former colonial master of Tajikistan, continues to dominate the country in political and military terms. It still maintains a Soviet-era military base in Tajikistan. However, Tajikistan’s economic dependence on China is steadily increasing through public borrowings and infrastructure investments. Both Russia and China separately conducted joint military exercises with Tajikistan in 20164. Tajikistan’s increasing alignment with China should be seen as an alarming bell for India.

Tajikistan is part of several multilateral regional forums like Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Shanghai Cooperation Organisatio (SCO) and ‘Heart of Asia’. It is also actively engaged with other regional powers. Tajikistan enjoys warm relationship with Iran, with whom it has historical, linguistic and cultural links. It is also closely linked with Pakistan, which is separated from Tajikistan only by a narrow strip of Wakhan Corridor. The proposed Central Asia South Asia Project, known as ‘CASA-1000’, is going to connect Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with Afghanistan and Pakistan through an electricity transmission system. Tajikistan has also joined China-led Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism, with Pakistan and Afghanistan as members. Tajikistan’s engagements with Pakistan and other regional powers have bearing on its relationship with India.

India-Tajikistan Relations

Roots of India-Tajikistan relationship go back to the ancient times. The civilisational connect between the two nations can be traced to political, cultural and economic links between ancient empires of India and Persia. During the Kushan rule, Indians and Tajiks were part of the single political space. Indian traders, travelers and scholars exerted great degree of impact on society and culture of ancient Central Asia. Later during the Mughal Empire, India was influenced by Persian language, art and culture. Hundreds of years of economic and cultural ‘give and take’ have led to warm relationship between the two countries in modern times.

After Soviet disintegration and subsequent independence of CARs, India established full-fledged diplomatic relations with each of the republics. India was one of the first countries to recognize independence of Tajikistan and set up diplomatic relations. Indian embassy was opened in Dushanbe in 1994. On the other hand, Tajikistan opened its diplomatic mission in New Delhi only in 2003. As mentioned earlier, President Rahmon has paid six official visits to India, in 1995, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2012 and the latest in December 2016. However, there have been very few high-level visits to Tajikistan from Indian side. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Tajikistan in 2003. President Pratibha Patil took an official tour of Dushanbe in 2009, followed by Vice President Hamid Ansari in 2013. Prime Minister Modi’s visit of July 2015 was significant and set new standards in bilateral engagements.

India-Tajikistan relationship was elevated to Strategic Partnership during President Rahmon’s last visit in 2012, which encompasses cooperation in the areas of defense, counter-terrorism, connectivity, trade, health, human resource development, science and technology, culture and tourism. The two countries have established bilateral consultative mechanisms such as, Joint Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation, Joint Working Group on Combating International Terrorism, Joint Working Group on Defense Cooperation and so on. 5

Bilateral trade between India and Tajikistan has been very low. It has risen from 15 million USD in 2006-7 to 58 million USD in 2014-156. India’s exports to Tajikistan mainly include pharmaceuticals, tea, coffee, textile and electronic good. On the other hand, its imports from Tajikistan include aluminum, cotton, dry fruits and vegetables. As a matter of fact, trade is the weakest link in the bilateral relationship, reason being lack of direct connectivity. There have been attempts to increase India’s trade with CARs through the Chabahar Port of Iran. However, the plan is yet to materialize.

Indian government and private sector has actively engaged in investments, projects and joint ventures with their Tajik counterparts. Till date, joint ventures have been set up in the fields of hydropower generation, pharmaceuticals, Information Technology (IT), health and food processing. India undertook the rehabilitation and modernization of the Soviet-era hydro power station of Varzob-I. India has also provided millions in US Dollars to Tajikistan in the form of humanitarian aid. In September 2015, India gave 1 million US Dollars to Tajikistan as relief aid to flood and mud-slide victims. Tajikistan considers India to be a ‘partner in development’ and seeks Indian support and aid in its developmental activities.

In the cultural spheres, India and Tajikistan have developed vibrant relations. Indian music, dance, movies and yoga are very popular in Tajikistan. Indian Cultural Center was established in Dushanbe in 2003 by the Indian embassy. It holds regular classes of Kathak, Tabla, Yoga and Hindi language. During Prime Minister Modi’s visit in 2015, MoU was signed on cooperation in the field of art and culture. Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program is widespread among young Tajiks; and till date, more than 1000 Tajik students have benefited from this program. In 2015, Indian government allotted 125 slots of ITEC to Tajikistan.7 The soft power influence of India should be channeled in a way to benefit other spheres of bilateral relationship.

Being part of the extended neighborhood, India and Tajikistan share similar security concerns like terrorism and extremism. The two countries have pledged cooperation in security and counter-terrorism. The strategic relations between the two began in 1990s, especially after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 1996. India and Tajikistan, along with Russia, Iran and Turkey, supported the Afghan Northern Alliance that was fighting the Taliban. During this time, India operated an army hospital in Farkhor near the Afghan border in Tajikistan to treat the wounded soldiers of the Northern Alliance.

India and Tajikistan signed a Defense Agreement in 2002. According to this agreement, India refurbished Soviet-era airbase at Ayni near Dushanbe; it spent 70 million US$ and completed the project in 2007. However, India’s plan to jointly maintain the airbase with Tajikistan could not materialize. India also conducted its first ever oversees military exercise in Tajikistan in 2003. India has been training large number of Tajik military cadets in various defense institutes. It has set up of the 50-bed military hospital, called ‘India-Tajikistan Friendship Hospital’ in Tajikistan in 20138.

On international issues, India and Tajikistan share a common world view. Both have been pushing for the reforms in structure of United Nations. Tajikistan has supported India’s candidature in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and its full membership in the SCO. The ruling regime in Tajikistan has so far taken a firm stance against the rising menace of radicalism in the region. It has actively cooperated with India in its counter-terrorism activities. Both the countries have shared vision on peace and stability in the region, and seek to solve the Afghan issue in peaceful manner.

Significance of President Rahmon’s Visit

Considering the warm and strong relationship between India and Tajikistan, current visit of President Rahmon was vital. During visit, he was accorded a ceremonial welcome by President Pranab Mukherjee at Rashtrapati Bhavan. He also held wide-ranging talks with Prime Minister Modi on bilateral, regional and international issues, before the two leaders issued a joint statement. Prime Minister Modi, in his address, called Tajikistan “a valued friend and strategic partner” and appreciated “Rahmon’s leadership and contribution in strengthening bilateral relationship”. He also reiterated deep-rooted shared history and heritage, and cultural, religious and linguistic links between the two countries9.

Both sides highlighted the need to increase scope and scale of economic engagement, especially in the field of trade and investment traffic. For this purpose, hydel power, IT, pharmaceuticals and healthcare were chosen as the areas of priority action. Rahmon sought Indian investment in small and medium hydroelectric projects, and in four free economic zones in Tajikistan. Agreement on Bilateral Investment and Avoidance of Double Taxation was signed between the two countries. Tajikistan considers India to be its ‘partner in development’, and appreciates India’s role in developmental activities in the field of IT, space technology, education, culture and training and capacity building. Indian role is also sought in using space technology for human development.

People-to-people contact is the strongest link between India and Tajikistan. In the coming year, enhanced level of Cultural links is to be attained through various festivals, fairs, conferences and musical and dance extravaganzas. Considering wide popularity of Indian films and television, greater exchange of films, TV programs and other cultural creations was also proposed. In this regard, MoU on Broadcasting in Exchange of Audio-Visual Programs was signed between Prasar Bharati and the Radio and Television Committee of Tajikistan10. The two sides have also talked about increasing air connectivity between the two countries, and making Visa procurement easier in cases of business, medical, tourist and educational visas.

Being aware of the week trade links between India and Tajikistan, Modi and Rahmon expressed the need for joint measures to enhance and diversify bilateral trade. Rahmon made reference to the business to business meetings held in Dushanbe in March 2016, and asserted that more such endeavors should be encouraged. President Rahmon appreciated the trilateral Chabahar Port Agreement between India, Iran and Tajikistan that would enhance surface connectivity in the Central Asian region. India’s engagement in facilitating International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its planned accession to the Ashgabat Agreement is likely to boost India’s transport and trade linkages with Tajikistan.

Major focus of the bilateral meeting was on security challenges jointly faced by the two countries, including extremism, radicalism and terrorism. The two leaders agreed to strengthen action on this front based on mutually agreed priorities. According to Prime Minister Modi, cooperation shall take place at multiple levels; firstly, reinforcing overall bilateral security cooperation; secondly, greater training capacity building and information exchanges; and thirdly, active coordination in regional and multilateral contacts11. Signing of an Agreement to Prevent Financing of Terrorism and Money Laundering was the most striking feature of this meet. President Rahmon asserted that terrorism and extremism are undermining all developmental efforts; and therefore, combating terrorism should be an important area in Indo-Tajik cooperative endeavor.

Tajikistan reiterated its support to India’s candidature in the UNSC and its full membership of SCO. It is believed that SCO membership would provide India a platform to work closely with Tajikistan and other CARs in the matters of regional security. Peace, stability and development of the region were considered the top priority by the leaders in their joint statement. Both leaders pledged to work together, along with other regional actors, ‘in the Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process and national reconciliation’12.

Conclusion

Tajikistan has recently celebrated 25 years of independence. In 2017, India and Tajikistan will commemorate 25th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic relations. This occasion is likely to deepen the bilateral relationship between two long-standing allies and partners. High level meetings between the Indo-Tajik leadership have increased in recent years. PM Modi’s visit to Dushanbe in July 2015 was reciprocated by President Rahmon through his current visit. Leadership of two nations also meets on various multilateral forums, like SCO, which gives them added opportunity to enhance engagement. Relationship between India and Tajikistan has flourished in the areas of political, economic, cultural, military and security cooperation. However, there is still a lot of potential for expanding and diversifying the cooperation, which needs to be exploited in the aftermath of heightened political engagement.

Tajikistan is a poor, underdeveloped and landlocked country, which has to rely on aid and support from outside powers. It is already sandwiched between Russia’s political and military dominance and China’s increasing economic and strategic influence. China considers Tajikistan to be vital in its One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, and therefore, has considerably invested in transport and infrastructure building. However, China’s joint military exercise with Tajikistan in October 2016, suggests that its engagements in the country is not merely economic. Although India and Tajikistan have pledged cooperation in security matters and counter-terrorism, China’s increasing military relations with Tajikistan is considered as an alarming bell for India.

India’s engagements in the Central Asian region are likely to enhance through number of factors including, India’s role in development of Chabahar Port and INSTC, its proposed membership of the SCO, and increased bilateral relations with each of the CARs. However, India has to develop a duel approach in dealing with the CARs; firstly, it has to look at the CARs as part of a consolidated geo-strategic space that is linked with other regions of Asia; secondly, India should independently deal with each of the CARs considering each republic’s socio-political and economic peculiarities. This will lead to the success of Connect Central Asia policy13 in the true sense. In this direction, current visit of President Rahmon should play a constructive role.

Endnotes

1. Wakhan Corridor was created in 19th century as a buffer zone between the British and the Russian empires, at the end of their military strife, called as the Great Game.
2. Ferghana Valley is the most fertile and densely populated region of Central Asia. It is divided between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
3. https://sputniknews.com/asia/201601221033532276-tajikistan-constitutiona... [3]
4. http://country.eiu.com/tajikistan [4]
5. Ibid
6. Ibid
7. http://indianembassytj.com/index.php?itfpage=contents&itemid=itec [5]
8. http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66846 [6]
9. http://www.narendramodi.in/pm-modi-at-joint-press-statement-with-preside... [7]
10. http://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/27860/List+of+AgreementsMO... [8]
11. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-tajikistan-to-step-up-anti-... [9]
12. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/27862/IndiaTajikistan... [10]
13. Connect Central Asia policy was adopted by Indian government in 2012, in order to enhance political, security, economic and cultural relations with the CARs. However, this policy has, by and large, been on paper; and nothing substantial has happened so far. However, PM Modi’s visit to all five CARs in July 2015 was a significant move. This policy has to be implemented efficiently for enhancing India’s engagement in the region.

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Published Date: 6th January 2017, Image Source: http://www.narendramodi.in [11]