China is a signatory to United Nations Convention of the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) but not the US. The South China Sea (SCS) covers an area of nearly four million square kilometers. It is estimated that US $5 trillion worth of sea borne trade and one-third of the world’s commercial shipping passes through the SCS every year. It is one of the most important trade routes in the world. It has an enormous energy and marine life resource potential. It is estimated to have a deposit of 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. An estimated 12 per cent of the global fisheries catch is available in the SCS area. The Chinese Communist Power in Beijing claims over SCS is represented by a map of 1947 vintage called the nine-dash line. Presently, the disputed claims by various countries in the South China Sea are given below.
China is now accused of building 3200 acres of territory in the South China Sea through reclamation and island building efforts. The ruling by the Arbitration panel relates as of now to the Philippines–China dispute, but will allow similar claims by others in the region in the form of overlapping claims. Therefore it has created a substantial amount of pressure on China to seek a negotiated settlement to resolve the SCS embroglio.
As reported by various analysts in the media that “Any other course will be damaging to China’s international standing. China believes that the increased US presence in the Asia-Pacific region — now institutionalized under the ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy, launched in 2012 — is meant to contain China’s rise. Many analysts believe that tensions in the South China Sea would be easier to resolve if the US prioritized regional cooperation over individual security partnerships. The United States’ active diplomacy encourages Japan, India and, to a certain extent, Australia to participate in ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the South China Sea.” China’s reaction to the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s has resulted in the form of a WHITE PAPER ON SOUTH CHINA SEA released on 13 July 2016, by the Information Office of the State Council of the Peoples Republic Of China. This WHITE Paper of 13,375 words has 143 paragraphs. The Introduction has seven paragraphs, which sets the tone of China’s Position and has been reproduced below. Other Five Headings are added to show the extent of the clarity demonstrated by China while composing the policy document as given below:
Summary Of China’s White Paper On SCS
Introduction
Remaining Five Sections
China’s Diplomatic Endeavours
China’s diplomatic endeavors to neutralize and ensure that the International Arbitration verdict against her in which the court upheld nearly all of the 15 points on which the Philippines approached the Court, has been relentless. China boycotted the proceedings, questioning the Court’s jurisdiction and publicly claiming historic rights to the South China Sea and its resources. She produced and made public a comprehensive WHITE PAPER on SCS on 13 July 2016, which has been discussed above. China followed up with the single-minded aim and objectives to ensure that the JOINT STATEMENT OF THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF ASEAN MEMBER STATES AND CHINA issued after meeting in Vientiane, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, on 25 July 2016, did not name China. The concluding section of the Joint Statement stated:
“RECALLING the Joint Statement of the 15th ASEAN-China Summit on the 10th Anniversary of the DOC adopted in 2012;
HEREBY state the following:
One has to accept that China has had a resounding success in this diplomatic matter. It goes to the credit of China’s aggressive diplomacy to safeguard her national interest.
China’s Strategic Postures
Earlier on 14 July 2016, commenting on the Arbitration verdict the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated, “the award is invalid and has no binding force. China does not accept or recognize it.” Later the Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister reiterated China’s proclaimed right to declare an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea. Whether or not China will implement an ADIZ, he said, depends upon the level of threat China faces.
To further her strategic rationale China has embarked in a multi pronged way. She has succeeded to an extent that in a way that even the US refrained from any qualitative move to change the balance of power scenario in the SCS. Though the US carried out her navigational freedom of even sailing her carrier group through the SCS, yet she had to dispatch her top naval commander to China on 27 July when China initiated massive military drills in SCS, declared the entire area as no entry zone to the rest of the world during the duration of the military exercise, announced joint military exercises with Russia, to be conducted in September 2017 and has already carried out extensive missile firing exercises. China has already issued advisory to all foreigners to refrain from entering the SCS without permission and has warned that such entry will carry imprisonment up to two years on being apprehended.
So far, as a sequel to Chinese enunciation of her strategic interests in SCS and East China Sea, Japan is the only country, which has issued a WHITE PAPER enunciating her strategic posture. This WHITE Paper is 484 pages long approved by the Japanese Cabinet on 2 August 2016 and in brief enunciates the following key points:
Media Strategy
At the Media level world wide Chinese diplomats and their Military attaches in Pakistan, India and other nations forming the sub continental levels addressed the press conferences, visited the think tanks in the region to put across the Chinese view point viewpoints without any ambiguity, even using strong languages some time undiplomatic, leaving no doubt in the mind of the listeners that China aimed to see the SCS issue as they saw it fit to be seen from their view point and the truth was as they saw it. China is very subtly hinting to the world that wherever their national interest is involved they will take actions at political, economic and strategic levels which is convenient to them even if the global view points based on legal, political or moral preconditions are unable to accommodate.
On 30 July 2016, onwards China has started carrying out a media advertisement every ten minutes a video broadcast to promote “China’s historical role and standing in the South China Sea” on the Chinese state news agency Xinhua’s mega screen at the Northern end of the Times Square at the intersection between 47th St., 7th Avenue and Broadway, and visible from afar. The screen normally shows commercial videos of scenic spots in China or the excellence of Chinese political and economic initiatives like the mega infrastructure plan to connect half the world in One Road, One Belt - all part of a China’s massive plan to control the new narrative of the Middle Kingdom, both domestically and abroad. It is said to cost China $200,000-300,000 per month © Mette Holm. There is no record of any country before China who has ever attempted such a media based coverage of ones national interest.
Emerging Subcontinental System
It is interesting to note that China is deliberately and consciously involved in creating a subcontinental system in which a state’s broad external orientation rests on its systemic position. As Mandelbaum (1988) postulates that strong states tend to expand in order to maximize security. Weak states submit to strong ones if they have no options: otherwise they tend to safeguard their security by distancing themselves from strong states or by allying with other states. The neo realistic system theory explains the international system to consist of “process” and “structure” and explains the behavior of the states within a “power-interest” matrix. Therefore as Basrur informs us “the concept of the “intensity of interaction” provides the dynamism to act since intensity is the property of the system rather than of is member states”.
China today has rested its orientation to foreign and strategic policy making by creating a sub continental system in which ASEAN and China are the independent variable to the SCS as the dependent variable. The weak states that comprise the whole membership of the ASEAN have thus succumbed to the stronger state called China and others like India, which is in-between strong and weak nomenclature, have very prudently tended to safeguard their own security interests by distancing themselves from the evolving subcontinental system whose epicenter is the SCS. Whether the initial success of China to create and muster the subcontinental system comprising of the SCS, especially after its true potentials of energy and other natural resources becomes an area of interests to the rest of the world, is a matter which only history will prove.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that presently China has emerged as a major power with a distinct political will to be a major player in world politics. She has demonstrated by her strategic actions and diplomatic skills to make an impact on major powers and their alliance partners. For the time being she has control over the limited subcontinental system.
Links:
[1] https://www.vifindia.org/article/2016/august/05/south-china-sea-imbroglio-setting-the-record-straight
[2] https://www.vifindia.org/author/gautam-sen
[3] https://associazioneeuropalibera.wordpress.com
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