Global Trends on Chip Design and Fabrication-Related Research

In September 2024, the then Senator Marco Rubio (now Secretary of State of the United States of America) published a ‘Made in China 2025 [3]’ (MIC 2025) report. This report has demonstrated China’s growth trajectory in the 10 strategic industries related to defence, space, agriculture machinery and semiconductors. The June 12th 2024, edition of The Economist [4] also focussed on China’s sciences, which observed that China had outpaced the US in some foundational science subjects. In contrast, India was far behind in the highly cited research output. On 28th August 2024, the Australian premier think tank Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) published its Two Decades Critical Technology Tracker List [5], which shows that China had achieved a massive jump from 3 leads in technologies in its first 2003-2007 survey to 57 leads out of 64 critical technologies list. According to the latest tracker data, the US lead had decreased from 60 to 7 out of 64, and India had jumped from 4 to 45.

On January 9, 2025, another reputed Critical Technology tracker, Emerging Technology Observatory (ETOs), Research Almanac, [6] a research centre affiliated with the Center for Security and Emerging Technology [7] came out with their research data. This article maps the data from the Research Almanac Chip design and fabrication-related research articles published between 2018 and 2023.

Global Trends on Chip Design and Fabrication-Related Research

The data shows that between 2018-2023, about 475,000 English-language [8] articles were published on chip design and fabrication, which accounts for around 8% of global growth in this field. These articles collectively constituted 2% of all research conducted across various disciplines, highlighting the increasing significance of semiconductors in academic and commercial research. China has become the leader in this industry, producing a staggering 160,852 articles, accounting for 34% of the global output. This figure significantly surpasses the combined production of the United States, India, and Japan, which published 71,688, 39,709, and 30,401 articles, respectively. Research output in India and Japan has also grown slower than in China. India’s research output increased by 26%, contributing 8% to the global share of research (see Table 1).

Table 1. Country-Wise Research Publication

Source: ETO Research Almanac, Centre for Security and Emerging Technology, https://almanac.eto.tech/topics/chip-design-fabrication/ [9]

Meanwhile, the US surpassed China in terms of citation level, with an average of 17.6 citations per article compared to 14.8 citations per article in China. However, China has the most articles produced. Citation [10] rates provide valuable insights into the global impact of research. Citation rates indicate the influence and quality of research; a higher citation rate suggests a greater likelihood of shaping innovation. This disparity raises an intriguing paradox: despite China’s prolific research output, its research influence has yet to match that of the US.

However, the number of citations for India and Japan per article is relatively low, indicating that while India is increasingly involved in semiconductor research, its contributions are less influential. In contrast, Japan experienced a 17% decline in research output and struggled to match the citation rates of other countries, averaging 10.8 citations per article.

Despite producing fewer articles than China and the US, South Korea emerged as a significant player. Notably, South Korea’s citation per article (15.3) [9] surpasses both China and Japan, suggesting that its research is highly impactful. This highlights the dynamic nature of the semiconductor research landscape, where the volume of publications and their citation impact can vary significantly across countries.

Regarding institutional leadership in the publication of research papers in general and chip design and fabrication-related articles in particular, Chinese institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences [11] are the leaders in the number of publications and highly cited articles. Chinese authors have contributed to 23,520 of the most cited chip-related research papers between 2018 and 2023, surpassing the contributions of the US, who accounted for 22% of the most-cited research in the field. The only non-Chinese top-10 institutions in this are France’s Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. Out of 10, 9 institutions are from China.

Leading Chinese institutions, such as the CAS, the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Tsinghua University, have been at the forefront of this research surge. For instance, the Chinese Academy of Sciences published 14,387 articles with a citation rate of 24.5 per article, reflecting the volume and impact of China’s contributions to the field (Table 2).

Table 2. Top Industry Organizations by Publication Count

Source: ETO Research Almanac, Centre for Security and Emerging Technology, https://almanac.eto.tech/topics/chip-design-fabrication/ [9]

Factors For China’s Rise in Chip Research

China’s massive growth in chip design and fabrication-related research is not merely a reflection of academic trends; it is deeply intertwined with the strategic industrial policy of Made in China 2025 [12] and realisation of Xi Jinping’s policy priorities to focus on ‘high-quality productive forces [13]’. Since 2015, the Chinese government has made massive investments in the semiconductor sector, the Number 1 priority under the title ‘New generation IT industry [14]’, driven by the aspiration for greater self-reliance in the changing geopolitical and external environment. These efforts aim to counter export controls, particularly those targeting access to advanced chip-making equipment, such as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines produced by ASML [15], a Dutch company. Despite these challenges, China’s substantial increase in research output underscores a concerted national effort to bridge technological gaps and reduce dependence on foreign semiconductor technologies.

The broader academic-industrial collaboration in China [16] also reflects the country’s strategic focus on semiconductor self-sufficiency. Notably, 8% of chip design and fabrication articles include authors from private companies, nearly three times the average across all scientific disciplines. This collaboration between academia and industry is pivotal for the practical implementation of research findings in chip design. Major companies, such as Samsung, Intel, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), have actively contributed to the field, bridging the gap between theoretical research and commercial applications.

In addition to research collaboration, China’s domestic semiconductor industry is receiving substantial government attention. The government invests heavily in domestic chip production and innovation to mitigate China’s dependence on foreign semiconductor suppliers. The government has also actively sought to attract top-tier talent from abroad to enhance its research capabilities.

The escalating geopolitical tension and supply-chain complexities intensify the semiconductor industry race. The U.S. pursues efforts to limit China’s technological advancement, especially in high-tech manufacturing, through export controls and sanctions on Chinese entities like Huawei and SMIC. China responds by developing indigenous semiconductor research and manufacturing capabilities. Despite China’s substantial chip-related research output, it lags behind the US in manufacturing capabilities due to a nascent semiconductor industry lacking infrastructure. This gap requires technological advancements, robust manufacturing ecosystems, and large-scale chip production facilities.

China’s endeavours to attain semiconductor self-sufficiency are underpinned by a geopolitical strategy aimed at fortifying its position within the global technological hierarchy. India should allocate resources to academic research on chip-related issues, thereby establishing the necessary ecosystem to support the establishment of a chip-making and design facility within the country. Chip is a man-made instrument that must be explored in India and other countries. Nevertheless, as the challenges persist in bridging technological gaps in the polarised and unequal world, it is necessary to focus on academic research and output by publishing high-impact factor journal articles. As the semiconductor industry undergoes evolution, academic research, industrial innovation, and national security considerations will collectively shape global technological leadership.

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