National Security Volume VII Issue III | July - September 2024

About the Issue

This special issue of National Security is devoted to the theme “Changing Geo-Economics and India”. The essays and articles make innovative recommendations for opening up new avenues of growth at a time when the world order and economy are undergoing churning, fragmentation and painful restructuring.

Analyst Ishan Joshi and noted economist Rajiv Kumar in their lead essay call on the government “to adopt a whole-of-society approach” to achieve Vikasit Bharat. They argue that the geoeconomic instability makes India’s path to reclaim its prosperity and economic security more arduous. They call for a dogged pursuit of FTAs, effective use of frontline technologies, including AI, a focus on job creation across small towns and localities, and attaining OECD level human development for sustaining growth. J. S. Deepak, country’s former envoy to the WTO, emphasises the need for India to liberalise its trade and agree on FTAs with Britain, European Union, the Central Asian states, and Africa to raise exports, create jobs and transform the economy. Eminent expert Anil L. Devli draws attention to the serious implications of India’s neglect of building container shipping capacities and depending on foreign ships for trade, including critical energy supplies. Analyst Arun B. Kumar writes on the geo-economic and industrial significance of Titanium, and the urgent need to enhance its domestic capacities to use its resource base to overcome the serious consequences of import dependence, especially on China. In a similar vein, scholar PK Khup Hangzo argues for India to build a diversified and resilient supply chain for critical minerals to ensure India’s economic and energy security.

Finally, in an insightful analysis of the deepening political polarisation in the US, scholar K. P. Vijayalakshmi delves into the policies of the two presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Underlining the deep divisions between the left-liberals and the conservatives and the widespread frustrations among the voters struggling with high inflation, crime, illegal immigration and growing socio-cultural conflicts. A Trump victory could have wide implications on US policies towards Europe, Russia, China, Ukraine and West Asia, and on trade. The impact on Indo-US relations could be less dramatic given the rare bi-partisan consensus on sustaining the partnership, she contends.

Letters and Comments

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Editorial Board [4]

International Editorial Advisory Board [5]

CONTENTS: Volume VII Issue III | July - September 2024

Editor’s Note

Coping with a Fragmenting World Order | Sujit Dutta [6]

Essays

Bharat@100: The Way Ahead | Ishan Joshi and Rajiv Kumar [7]

Prioritising Trade Negotiations for Transforming India | J. S. Deepak [7]

Strategic Maritime Trade: Lessons not Learnt from History | Anil L. Devli [8]

Abstract : Container shipping is essential for global commerce, accounting for over 80 percent of merchandise by volume. It has revolutionised trade, enabling efficient logistics and rapid globalisation. India's economic growth and its aspiration to become a global manufacturing hub hinge on its ability to efficiently ship goods worldwide. Container shipping supports India's import-export activities,generates employment, and drives investment in infrastructure, which is crucial for maintaining domestic supply chains and fostering regional economic integration. The article emphasises the historical and strategic dimensions of maritime trade. It traces the evolution of maritime warfare and illustrates how maritime strategies have been used to disrupt enemy economies without direct military engagement. India's container shipping capacities grew substantially with investment and policy support until 2017. However, a policy change in 2018 diluted licensing requirements for foreign ships, leading to a decline in Indian container fleet investment and increased dependency on foreign shipping companies. The document highlights the significant profits of major container shipping companies, their minimal tax contributions, and their successful tax planning strategies, which exempt them from the global minimum tax. There is an urgent need for India to develop its container shipping capacities, reduce dependency on foreign companies, ensure competitive export-import logistics,and enhance its strategic and economic security.

Geo-Economics of Titanium and India’s Industrial Future | Arun B. Kumar [7]

Articles

India and the Geo-Economics of Critical Minerals | PK Khup Hangzo [7]

Abstract : Critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements are vital for high-technology and high-growth sectors. They include, among others, consumer electronics (smart phones, laptops, tablets etc.), clean energy (wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles etc.), and defence (jet engines, sonar, radar, surveillance systems etc.). However, critical minerals face the risk of disruption of their supply chains due to growing contestation among the world’s major powers. Any supply disruption could have adverse security impact. It is imperative that India undertake concerted effort to build more diverse and resilient supply chains by developing domestic critical mineral resources, acquiring overseas mining assets, enhancing multilateral co-operation, and exploring new frontiers. Such a multifaceted approach offers the surest way to ensure India’s economic and energy security.

US Elections 2024: Polarisation, Key Issues and Impact on the World | K. P. Vijayalakshmi [7]

Abstract : The 2024 US Presidential Election is a pivotal political event that will shape the country's future direction. The election of the Republican candidate Donald Trump could have wide implications for both US domestic politics and foreign policy, especially its alliances. The deep politico-ideological rift between the Democrats and the Republicans, the “Reagan Republicans” and the traditional conservatives, and between the leftwing ‘progressives’ and mainstream Democrats has polarised the country with voters divided over political, economic, social, cultural and foreign policy issues. The exit of President Biden from the election and the swift consolidation of the Democrats behind the new nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, revitalised the campaign against former President Trump and sharpened the deep-rooted differences between the two on most issues, including foreign policy. While Harris seemed inclined to continue the major policies of the Biden Administration, both domestic and foreign, Trump emphasised higher protectionism to ‘Make America Great Again’, ending illegal immigration, ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, strong support for Israel, and robustly dealing with the China threat. It is expected that the bipartisan focus on strengthening US-India relations will continue. Trump’s victory is likely to reshape US engagement with its allies and adversaries alike.