Climate Change: A Review of 2024 and Projections for 2025

State of the global climate in 2024

From global average temperature to greenhouse gas emissions, records have already been broken yet again in 2024. The impact of this was felt in the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as scorching summer heat, excessive rainfall, devastating floods etc. The year 2024 saw unprecedented global temperatures, following on from the remarkable warmth of 2023.^[1] It also became the first year with an average temperature clearly exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level.^[2] Eleven months of the year saw the global-average surface air temperature above this threshold.^[3] The year was 0.72 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1991-2020 average, and 1.60 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial level.^[4]

Impact of Climate Change

The rapid rise in heat-trapping greenhouse gases and the resulting global temperature increase have driven extreme weather events in 2024. The notable extreme weather events of 2024, which are discussed further, are a direct result of climate change.

• Heatwaves- heatwaves, the deadliest form of extreme weather, have caused significant deaths, agricultural damage, and threats to water and energy security. In the summer of 2024, a record 15 national heat records were broken along with 130 monthly national temperature records and tens of thousands of local high.^[5] The first half of 2024 saw an unprecedented number of heat records. Climate expert Maximiliano Herrera called the extreme heat in 2024 “beyond anything ever seen,” noting that the months from February to July were the most record breaking in history.^[6]
• Extreme rainfall, floods, and landslides- in 2024, unprecedented global flooding in Kenya, Tanzania, and Burundi, affected over 700,000 people and caused hundreds of deaths.^[7] In Brazil, flooding in Rio Grande do Sul affected nearly 2.4 million people, resulting in 183 deaths, 27 missing persons, and widespread damage across 478 municipalities in the state.^[8] Large parts of Asia were also hit by a series of storms resulting in heavy downpours and flash flooding. Afghanistan, where 540 people died was the worst affected.^[9] In Pakistan, at least 124 people died in severe flooding while 18 people died in Iran in May 2024.^[10] In July, northern Kerala in India experienced fatal landslides due to monsoon rainfall killing hundreds of people. Similarly in September, heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in Central Europe affecting two million people.^[11] That same month, Nepal, especially the capital Kathmandu and nearby regions, experienced devastating flash floods, landslides and riverine flooding killing 244 people.^[12] Additionally, in October, flooding in eastern Spain killed over 200 people and displaced more than 400, marking Europe’s deadliest flood event since 1967.^[13]

Disappointing Negotiations at COP29

The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 29), held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11-22 November 2024, failed to address the key concerns of developing countries, particularly regarding climate finance. Developing countries had called on rich countries to provide them with USD 1.3 trillion a year to help them decarbonize their economies and cope with the effects of the climate crisis.^[14] But the final deal set a pledge of just USD 300 billion annually by 2035.^[15] After the adoption of the agreement, India expressed its disappointment and called the amount to be “abysmally poor” and “paltry”.^[16] India was supported by several countries of Global South including Nigeria.^[17] COP 29 also fell short on fossil fuel action. Although COP 28 had called for a “just, orderly and equitable” transition away from fossil fuels, COP 29 did not strongly reaffirm this commitment.^[18] However, some progress was made in advancing the operationalization of the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 on carbon markets, with new guidelines for carbon trading and crediting between countries and other entities.^[19]

Implications for India

From January 1st to September 30, 2024, India experienced extreme weather events on 93% of the days, according to Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), a New-Delhi based think tank.^[20] These events, including heat and cold waves, cyclones, lightning, heavy rain, floods, and landslides, caused 3,238 deaths, affected 3.2 million hectares of crops, damaged 235,862 houses, and killed over 9,457 animals.^[21] Amongst the states, Madhya Pradesh had the highest frequency of extreme weather events while Kerala recorded the highest fatalities at 550 according to the report.^[22] Andhra Pradesh had the most houses damaged (85,806), and Maharashtra saw the most significant crop damage, with over 60% of the affected area nationwide.^[23] Central India faced the highest frequency of extreme weather events and suffered most fatalities, followed by South India, East and Northeast India, and Northwest India.^[24]

Prognosis for 2025

Greenhouse gas emissions show no signs of slowing down, and atmospheric concentrations are expected to reach a new record in 2025, leading to continued temperature rise. This will result in more frequent and intense extreme weather events, with countries least able to recover or those who have contributed the least to climate change suffering the most. The 2025 UN climate change conference (COP 30) will be held in Belem, Brazil, from November 10-21, focusing on key issues such as emission reduction, climate adaptation, finance for developing countries, renewable energy, forest and biodiversity preservation, and climate justice.^[25] 2025 will be a pivotal year for climate cooperation and ambition. The focus for climate diplomacy is already shifting from setting targets to implementing and delivering results amidst a fractured global backdrop. However, it remains uncertain whether these goals will be achieved in 2025.

Recommendations

Prioritize mitigation as a matter of urgency- the United Nations Environment Program’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 highlights that current emission reduction plans are insufficient.^[26] Even if these emission reduction plans are fully implemented, global temperatures are expected to rise by 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius this century.^[27] To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions should be reduced by 42% by 2030 and by 57% by 2035.^[28] Wealthier nations who have contributed significantly to the crisis need to take fair share of responsibility as a matter of urgency. New national plans for actions, also known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are due for submission in February 2025. Whether countries pledge for more ambitious emission reduction targets remains to be seen.

Facilitate more climate finance - developed countries must increase climate finance to help developing nations transition to a low-carbon future and protect their citizens from climate impacts. The climate finance agreement reached in Baku Azerbaijan provides a modest foundation, but attention must be given to the quality and accessibility of finance. For some developing nations, the type of finance (e.g. grants vs loans) and ease of access to finance are as important as the amount. Additionally, ensuring that finds reach the poorest and most vulnerable nations should also be a key priority.

Prioritize climate-resilient policies, infrastructure, and early warning systems- India must urgently scale up adaptation efforts, prioritizing nature-based solutions. These include actions like planting trees for carbon sequestration and flood control, restoring mangroves to buffer against storms and sea level rise, preserving coral reefs, restoring bogs and wetlands, and allowing degraded land to regenerate. These solutions are cost-effective and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, India should focus on building climate-resilient infrastructure and enhancing early warning systems.

Maintain robust data on the impacts of extreme weather events- India faces significant gaps in tracking and estimating the loss and damage caused by extreme weather events. Data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), received from states, lack comprehensiveness. The absence of a reliable public database on extreme weather events makes it difficult to assess disaster impacts. Given the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, India needs accurate data on loss and damage, and not just the number of disasters.

End Notes

^[1] Global Climate Highlights 2024, ‘The 2024 Annual Climate Summary’ Copernicus European Commission, [Online] Available at: https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024# [3]
^[2] Ibid
^[3] Ibid
^[4] Ibid
^[5] Tom Crowfoot 2024, ‘Unprecedented number of heat records broken this year, and other nature and climate stories you need to read this week’, World Economic Forum’, [Online] Available at: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/08/record-number-heat-records-this-year-nature-climate/#: [4]
^[6] Jonathan Watts 2024, ‘Unprecedented number of heat records broken around world this year’, The Guardian, [Online] Available at:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/14/unprecedented-number-of-heat-records-broken-around-world-this-year [5]
^[7] World Weather Attribution 2024, [Online] Available at:
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/urban-planning-at-the-heart-of-increasingly-severe-east-african-flood-impacts-in-a-warming-world/ [6]
^[8] United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2024, ‘Brazil: Floods in Rio Grande do Sul- United Nations Situation Report, as of 20 September 2024’, [Online] Available at:
https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/brazil/brazil-floods-rio-grande-do-sul-united-nations-situation-report-20-september-2024 [7]
^[9] World Weather Attribution 2024, [Online] Available at:
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasing-april-may-rainfall-el-nino-and-high-vulnerability-behind-deadly-flooding-in-afghanistan-pakistan-and-iran/ [8]
^[10] Ibid.
^[11] World Weather Attribution 2024, [Online] Available at:
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-and-high-exposure-increased-costs-and-disruption-to-lives-and-livelihoods-from-flooding-associated-with-exceptionally-heavy-rainfall-in-central-europe/ [9]
^[12] PreventionWeb 2024, ‘Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal’, [Online] available at: https://www.preventionweb.net/news/rapid-urbanisation-and-climate-change-key-drivers-dramatic-flood-impacts-nepal# [10]
^[13] World Weather Attribution 2024, [Online] Available at:
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-downpours-increasing-in-southern-spain-as-fossil-fuel-emissions-heat-the-climate/ [11]
^[14] Seth Borenstein et al 2024, ‘Vulnerable nations seek $1.3 trillion to deal with damage and help curb climate change’, [Online] available at: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/vulnerable-nations-seek-1-3-trillion-to-deal-with-damage-and-help-curb-climate-change [12]
^[15] Amitabh Sinha 2024, ‘COP 29 triples climate finance to $300 billion a year, India says “disappointed”, “cannot accept”, The Indian Express, [Online] Available at: https://indianexpress.com/article/world/india-rejects-cop29-climate-finance-deal-calls-optical-illusion-9687012/ [13]
^[16] Ibid
^[17] Jayashree Nandi 2024, ‘India makes history at COP29, rejects NCQG decision, speaks up for global south’, Hindustan Times, [Online] available at: https://www.hindustantimes.com/environment/india-makes-history-at-cop29-rejects-ncqg-decision-speaks-up-for-global-south-101732422329955.html [14]
^[18] Jacob Koshy 2023, ‘COP28 summit calls for ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels’, The Hindu, [Online] available at: https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/at-dubai-cop28-nations-reach-consensus-to-transition-from-fossil-fuels/article67633151.ece [15]
^[19] Subrata Chakrabarty and Shalini Singh 2025, ‘Decoding Article 6 and Climate Finance Outcomes at COP29;, WRI India, [Online] Available at: https://wri-india.org/blog/decoding-article-6-and-climate-finance-outcomes-cop29 [16]
^[20] “Climate India 2024: An Assessment of Extreme Weather Events (January-September).” Centre for Science and Environment. New Delhi. November 8, 2024. https://www.cseindia.org/climate-india-2024-an-assessment-of-extreme-weather-events-12460 [17]
^[21] Ibid.
^[22] Ibid.
^[23] Ibid.
^[24] Ibid.
^[25] Climate Diplomacy 2025, ‘UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 30), [Online] Available at: https://climate-diplomacy.org/events/un-climate-change-conference-unfccc-cop-30 [18]
^[26] United Nations Environment Programme (2024). “Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! With a massive gap between rhetoric and reality, countries draft new climate commitments.” Nairobi. October 24. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024 [19]
^[27] Ibid.
^[28] Ibid

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