Some Challenges for Indian Diplomacy

India’s diplomatic skills will be tested in considerable measure this new year, in the neighbourhood and far, as well. The test gains even greater importance because it has consequences for the country’s security as well. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and the foreign policy mandarins have thus far demonstrated commendable competence in navigating bilateral and multilateral affairs, the emerging scenarios present a fresh set of challenges—some of them unforeseen.

Of the immediate neighbours, Bangladesh offers a tricky situation. India-Bangladesh ties were on a roll with Sheikh Hasina at the helm, but that smooth ride was given a rude jolt with the abrupt change in government in Dhaka. Prime Minister Hasina had to flee her country and is now in India, after violent street protests against her government broke out there. All sorts of elements, including dubious ones, participated in the agitation. There is now an interim sort of dispensation there, with an ‘advisor’—a Nobel laureate much toasted by the West—as the head. The new ‘government’ in Dhaka insists on India sending back Hasina to face criminal charges. It appears that it has made it a condition for the normalisation of relations between the two countries. But India is unlikely to immediately accede to that demand, given that the former Prime Minister has been a dependable friend of decades.

The targeting of Bangladeshi Hindus, the desecration of their places of worship, the leeway given to radical elements inimical to India, the growing Pakistan-Bangladesh nexus, have further complicated the path of normalisation. Dhaka’s whitewashing of the situation by claiming that the attacks on members of the Hindu minority community were political rather than communal, has not helped matters. Bangladesh has also refused to send its delegation to a few important events hosted by India. All of this is poor signalling and India cannot but take note of it.

Much will now depend on what sort of government comes to power in Bangladesh once elections are held. For now, however, New Delhi has to contend with a neighbour that shares its borders with India, and is far from being friendly. The national security implication for India is too obvious to be stated.

Sri Lanka has a new President who is Left-leaning. He recently came on an official visit to India and made all the right noises about the need for greater friendship and cooperation between the two nations. But his tilt towards China is also well known. Besides, Sri Lankan governments have in the past not always lived up to the promises they made to India on matters concerning the latter’s security interests. India has to therefore carefully watch how the incumbent government behaves, while at the same time going ahead with plans that cement the relationship. Colombo has acknowledged India’s timely help in rescuing it from a severe financial crisis recently, and one can only hope that this gesture, along with other issues, will help strengthen bilateral ties. That said, nothing can be taken for granted.

India’s relations with Nepal are steady for now, though the Indian foreign establishment will keep a wary eye. Nepal’s incumbent Prime Minister has a track record of causing disruptions in bilateral ties between New Delhi and Kathmandu and brazenly using the China card to pressure India. It will be interesting to see how the bilateral pans out in this new year. The Nepali Congress, which has historically been close to India, is no longer the powerful political entity that it was once upon a time. The communists, who are in power, are constantly battling amongst themselves. At times, there is a contest among leaders on who is more ‘independent’ of India’s influence. While all this may be Nepal's internal affairs, the fallout of such confrontations impacts India.

Perhaps the most interesting development happening in India’s immediate neighbourhood is in Afghanistan. India does not have formal or full-fledged diplomatic ties with the Taliban regime in Kabul, and yet that has not prevented the two countries from operating through channels of communication. The Taliban government has so far done nothing that would harm India’s interests. New Delhi is studying closely the recent confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, with both sides having even launched military strikes on each other’s ‘terrorist’ elements. India even tactically condemned the attack by Pakistan. Can the deteriorating relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan open up avenues for greater cooperation between New Delhi and Kabul, even of the kind that existed prior to the Taliban taking charge? Let’s wait and watch.

Elsewhere, away from the neighbourhood, are the developments in Canada. India-baiter Justin Trudeau is on his way out and a new Prime Minister will be named in a few months from now. Trudeau has single-handedly destroyed the decades-old relationship that India enjoyed with Canada (both at government-to-government and people-to-people levels), by levelling grave and unsubstantiated allegations against New Delhi. While his departure can bring a thaw in the bilateral ties, it alone will not be enough to restore true friendship. Canadian politics has to free itself from the stranglehold of pro-Khalistan elements. It remains to be seen whether the new government that comes to power, shows that will and determination.

Amid all these developments, comes a piece of good news from the Maldives. India-Maldives ties had taken a sudden plunge some months ago with a series of happenings. Some ministers in Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu’s cabinet made derogatory remarks against Prime Minister Modi. Muizzu’s government also asked India to pull out its military troops from the island-nation; this demand came soon after Muizzu’s visit to China. But, since then, Maldives has made hectic attempts to repair the relationship. The offending ministers were sacked, and President Muizzu recently visited India and reiterated his resolve for a strong India-Maldives partnership. Muizzu acknowledged during his visit that India was a key partner in the socio-economic and infrastructure development of the Maldives. He said that India had helped the Maldives during its times of need. All this is no doubt reassuring, but actions speak louder than words. And, India will keenly watch President Muizzu’s actions in the coming months.

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