Europe News Digest (1-15 January, 2025)

Russian Gas Flows Via Ukraine to Europe Stop as Deal Expires

Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine stopped as a key transit deal expired, raising the stakes for the continent’s energy security as it draws heavily on reserves. For five decades Ukraine has been a key avenue for gas supplies into Europe, even during the nearly three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The halt means a handful of central European countries that have relied on the flows will be forced to source more expensive gas elsewhere, adding to pressure on supplies at a time when the region is already depleting its winter storage at the fastest pace in years. “We have stopped the transit of Russian gas, this is a historical event,” the Ukrainian energy ministry said in a statement. “Russia is losing markets, and will begin to experience financial losses.” The end of the transit deal has highlighted Europe’s continued reliance on Russian gas via pipelines and shipments of liquefied fuel, as well as the cracks in the bloc’s approach to weaning itself off Russian supplies. Click here to read... [2]

Asian LNG Prices Set to Increase After Russia-Ukraine Transit Ends

The end of Russian natural gas flows to Europe via Ukraine is likely to boost competition with Asia and prices for alternatives. Gas flows from Russia to Europe via Ukraine halted on January 1, 2025, bringing to an end more than five decades of the key conduit for the region. Russia’s invasion of its neighbour in February 2022 sparked an energy crisis in Europe that led to a jump in regional benchmarks and international liquefied natural gas prices. While the move was expected after months of political wrangling, Europe will still have to replace about 5 per cent of its gas and may rely more heavily on storage, which has fallen below average levels for the time of year. Prices rose in anticipation of the cut-off, with Europe’s gas benchmark closing 2024 up more than 50 per cent. Those gains haven’t yet been fully reflected in the cost of the normally more-expensive LNG that nations including Japan and South Korea are heavily reliant on. Click here to read... [3]

European Gas Prices Soar After Russian Gas Flow via Ukraine Stops

European natural gas futures climbed the highest since October 2023 after Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine stopped on New Year's Day. The price of the Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas climbed by more than 4% to €51 per megawatt-hour, its highest level since October 2023, before easing a little, on the first trading day after Russian gas stopped flowing to Europe via Ukraine. Freezing temperatures across the north of the region pushed prices up on Thursday morning with a backdrop of losing 5% of the EU's natural gas import as Russian import stopped entering the European Union via Ukraine on 1 January, after decades of operating, due to a transit deal expiring, raising concerns about faster storage withdrawals. European gas inventories have been depleted at the fastest pace since 2021, sitting at around 75% due to the particularly cold weather in Europe over the past weeks. According to the industry organisation Gas Infrastructure Europe, the volume of gas in the block's storage facilities decreased by about 19% from the end of September, when the replenishment season ends, to mid-December. Click here to read... [4]

Slovakia Threatens to Cut Benefit for Ukrainians

Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to cut financial support for more than 130,000 Ukrainian refugees as a dispute with Ukraine over Russian gas supplies escalates. On 1 January, Kyiv shut off a pipeline that for decades was used to supply Central Europe with Russian natural gas. Slovakia had been the main entry point and the country now stands to lose millions of euros in transit fees. The UN's refugee agency (UNHCR) estimated last month that there were 130,530 Ukrainian refugees in Slovakia out of 6,813,900 globally. Fico - who in December made a surprise visit to Moscow for talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin - described Kyiv's move as "sabotage". The prime minister of the EU state said he would propose halting electricity exports to Ukraine and also "sharply reducing" financial support for Ukrainians who have found shelter in Slovakia. He said there was no risk of Slovakia itself suffering from gas shortages, as it had already made alternative arrangements. Click here to read... [5]

Poland Assumes Presidency of the Council of the EU

On 1 January, Poland took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union from Hungary. Poland assumes the presidency for the second time since the country joined the EU in 2004. “This presidency will be groundbreaking in many ways,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a statement. “It begins during a challenging time marked by conflicts, and our task will be to convince all 27 EU member states that Europe can continue to be the safest, most stable place on Earth. Security will be our top priority during the upcoming six months.” He also said Poland would implement “a shared, carefully planned security policy, providing Ukraine with the necessary support” that can only be achieved together. “We will do everything to ensure that Europe’s security is a reality, not just an aspiration. I hope Poland will lead efforts that result in peace. Let us wish ourselves success in this endeavour,” Donald Tusk concluded his statement. Click here to read... [6]

Elon Musk Drives into UK Foreign Policy

Elon Musk, set to lead Trump's Department of Government Efficiency, is influencing US foreign policy and targeting overseas leaders with provocative remarks. His endorsements of populist parties and criticisms of foreign officials are causing international diplomatic tensions, raising concerns about conflicts of interest and his shadow presidency role. Musk called for fresh UK elections in the latest sign of how Trump’s incoming US administration could be a thorn in the side of Keir Starmer’s government. Musk made a string of posts on X, criticizing UK policy. He questioned Starmer’s record as Britain’s Director of Public Prosecutions before entering politics, called for the release from prison of the far-right agitator Tommy Robinson and said that “only” Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party can “save” Britain. Click here to read... [7]

Elon Musk Pens German Newspaper Opinion Piece Supporting Far-Right AfD Party

The tech entrepreneur and close adviser to Donald Trump, Elon Musk has taken a stunning new public step in his support for the far-right German political party Alternative for Germany (AfD), publishing a supportive guest opinion piece for the country’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper that has prompted the commentary editor to resign in protest. Musk uses populist and personal language to try to deny AfD’s extremist bent, and the essay expands on his post on his social media platform, X, on which he, last week claimed that “only the AfD can save Germany”. The AfD has a strong anti-immigration stance and, like incoming president Donald Trump in relation to the US, is calling for mass deportations from Germany. The AfD backing from Musk, who also defended his right to weigh in on German politics due to his “significant investments”, comes as Germans are set to vote on 23 February after a coalition government led by the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, collapsed late this fall. Click here to read... [8]

Emmanuel Macron Joins Growing Criticism of Elon Musk in Europe

Emmanuel Macron has added his voice to a growing chorus of European criticism of Elon Musk, accusing the world’s richest man of intervening directly in the continent’s democratic processes, including Germany’s snap federal elections next month. The French president joined the Norwegian and British prime ministers and a German government spokesperson in responding to a barrage of hostile posts by Musk backing far-right political parties and attacking leftwing politicians in Europe.

“Ten years ago, who would have imagined that the owner of one of the world’s largest social networks would be supporting a new international reactionary movement and intervening directly in elections, including in Germany,” Macron said. Norwegian Prime Minister has stated “I find it worrying that a man with enormous access to social media and huge economic resources involves himself so directly in the internal affairs of other countries, this is not the way things should be between democracies and allies.” Click here to read... [9]

Russia Claims Capture of Ukrainian Front-Line Town

Russia claims that its forces have captured the front-line town of Kurakhove in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. The town has borne the brunt of Russian advances in recent months and is a stepping-stone to the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Ukraine has not acknowledged the fall of Kurakhove, which is 35km (21 miles) south of Pokrovsk. A well-known Ukrainian journalist, Yury Butusov, wrote on his Telegram channel that the city of Kurakhove had been "effectively lost" to Russian forces. Ukrainian bloggers said servicemen had been subjected to constant fire from multiple rocket launchers and guided, or glide, bombs. DeepState, a Ukrainian monitoring group that tracks the front line of the war using open sources, showed most of Kurakhove under Russian control at midday on Tuesday. However, Ukraine has not acknowledged the capture of the town by Russian forces. Click here to read... [10]

Trump Ramps Up Threats to Gain Control of Greenland and Panama Canal

President-elect Donald Trump is showing no sign of letting up in his desire for the US to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal, calling both critical to American national security. Asked if he would rule out using military or economic force in order to take over the autonomous Danish territory or the Canal, he responded: "No, I can't assure you on either of those two. "But I can say this, we need them for economic security," he told reporters during a wide-ranging news conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Both Denmark and Panama have rejected any suggestion that they would give up territory. Greenland lies on the shortest route from North America to Europe and is home to a large American space facility. It also has some of the largest deposits of rare earth minerals, which are crucial in the manufacture of batteries and high-tech devices. Trump suggested the island is crucial to military efforts to track Chinese and Russian ships, which he said are "all over the place". Click here to read... [11]

EU Won’t Allow Attacks on Borders: European Leaders Warn Trump Over Greenland Ambitions

European leaders on January 8, warned Donald Trump against threatening “sovereign borders” after the US President-elect refused to rule out military action to take Greenland. “We need Greenland for national security purposes,” he declared. In Berlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz convened a press conference at short notice and stressed that the “inviolability of borders is a fundamental principle of international law.” Further, France’s Foreign Minister noted that the EU will not allow attacks within its borders. While France and Germany have made it plain, they stand against the notion of Denmark conceding Greenland to the U.S., Russia appears to be backing the president-elect. In Russia, Trump’s position on Greenland has garnered positive media coverage, with pro-Kremlin commentators saying it validated Moscow’s so-called special military operation in Ukraine. Click here to read... [12]

US Slaps Sanctions on Close Aide to Hungary’s Viktor Orban

The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Antal Rogan, one of the most powerful men in Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz government and the minister in charge of his cabinet office. It is a rare move between NATO allies, and symbolic of the depth to which US-Hungarian relations have sunk since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost three years ago. "Antal Rogan is a primary architect, implementer and beneficiary of this system of corruption," read the statement, made by outgoing US Ambassador David Pressman. His departure comes days ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House, and the president-elect has a far more positive view of Viktor Orban than the Biden administration, seeing him as a close political ally. The question for the incoming Trump presidency, and its next ambassador to Budapest, is whether they will immediately overturn the sanctions against Antal Rogan. Click here to read... [13]

Slovakia Ramps Up Anti-Zelenskyy Rhetoric amid Russian Gas Transit Spat

Slovakia's prime minister claims Ukraine is jeopardising Europe's global competitiveness by refusing to allow Russia to export gas into the EU over its territory. Robert Fico was in a combative mood after meeting EU top brass on January 9, to discuss Ukraine’s decision to end the transit of Russian gas through its territory, reiterating warnings of “reciprocal measures” against its war-ravaged neighbour. These could include limiting electricity supplies and aid for Ukrainian refugees, Fico said, also implying that his government might be prepared to block action at the EU level. “Yes, some may say that it is cruel what I am saying now, but it is also cruel what Zelenskyy is doing to us and what he is doing to the EU,” Fico told reporters in Brussels. “It is damaging. It is cruel.” Fico claims Kyiv’s refusal to cut a new supply deal with the Kremlin when the five-year contract between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz expired on 31 December has pushed up gas prices, and will also cost Slovakia €500m a year in lost transit fees for supply of gas further west into the EU. Click here to read... [14]

Ukraine Says Ready to Replace Hungary in EU and NATO

Amid Hungary’s continued support for Moscow’s narratives, Kyiv says it will fill in should Budapest elect to join Russian-led blocs instead of the Western bodies. Ukraine has declared that it is ready to replace Hungary in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should Budapest prefer to join Russian-led blocs. The statement was released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on January 9. While clearly tongue-in-cheek, it also reflects the serious tension that has built up between Ukraine and Hungary, with Budapest offering support for Moscow’s narratives over the war in Ukraine and obstructing the Western bodies’ efforts to bolster Kyiv. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto had earlier accused Ukraine of exacerbating Europe’s economic challenges with its refusal to renew a five-year transit gas deal with Russia. Budapest claims the move has led to a 20 percent rise in natural gas prices on the European market. In contrast with other EU countries, Hungary has expanded its imports of Russian gas since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, Budapest receives Russian gas via pipelines that run under the Black Sea and via Türkiye, and therefore its supplies are not affected by the halt of the Ukrainian route. Click here to read... [15]

EU Blasts Russia for Weaponising Gas in Moldova

The European Union’s foreign policy chief has accused Russia of weaponising gas against Moldova. Russia is using “gas as a weapon” in waging a “hybrid war” against the small southeast European country, Kaja Kallas said late on Tuesday, pledging the bloc’s support. Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria, which enjoys strong links with Moscow, has been without gas since the beginning of the year amid a financial spat between Chisinau and Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom. The thin sliver of land of Transnistria has been de facto controlled by pro-Russian forces since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Moldova says that Moscow is falsely blaming it for the crisis, which it claims Russia has artificially stoked to undermine the government ahead of parliamentary elections this year. Click here to read... [16]

Iran, European Powers to Hold Nuclear Talks Ahead of Trump Return

Iran is set to hold nuclear talks with France, Britain and Germany on January 13, just a week before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office. They are the second round of talks over Iran's nuclear programme in less than two months, following a discreet meeting held in Geneva, Switzerland, in November between Tehran and the three European powers, known as the E3. "These are not negotiations," claimed the German foreign ministry. Iran has similarly emphasised that the talks are merely "consultations". During his first term, Trump had pursued a policy of "maximum pressure", withdrawing the U.S. from a landmark nuclear deal which imposed curbs on Iran's nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief. Tehran adhered to the deal until Washington's withdrawal, but then began rolling back its commitments. Efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear pact have since faltered and European officials have repeatedly expressed frustrations over Tehran's non-compliance. Click here to read... [17]

Pakistan International Airlines Resumes Operations in Europe After Four-Year Suspension

Pakistan's national flag carrier resumed its operations in Europe on January 10, with the maiden flight to Paris, ending a more than four-year ban by the European Union's aviation agency over safety standards. Pakistan International Airlines' authorisation to operate in Europe was suspended in June 2020 over concerns about the ability of Pakistani authorities and its Civil Aviation Authority to ensure compliance with international aviation standards following the crash of its plane after a failed attempt to land in Karachi. To celebrate the relaunch, THE PIA has decorated the aircraft with a model of the Eiffel Tower on its tail and the slogan “I Love Paris” on the nose. The Boeing 777 has been prepared in line with European Union aviation standards. The relaunch followed the European Aviation Safety Agency’s (EASA) decision to lift the ban, enabling PIA to resume services in Europe and the UK. Click here to read... [18]

Armenia Takes First Step to EU Accession as Government Approves Bill

Armenia's government officially endorsed a draft bill on January 9, initiating its process to joining the European Union, according to domestic media. The bill will now be presented to the country's parliament. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned that the public should not expect rapid accession into the EU, underlining that it would first need approval via a referendum. The day before the cabinet backed the bill, Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced the country could sign a new partnership with Brussels in the upcoming months, which could include visa liberalisation. In recent years, the former Soviet Union country has deepened ties with the West and drifted away from Moscow. Joining the 27-country EU can be an arduous, years-long process that only three other former members of the Soviet Union — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — have already completed. Armenia's path to EU membership might not be straightforward. The landlocked country doesn't share a border with the EU and remains heavily economically dependent on Moscow. It also hosts a Russian military base. Click here to read... [19]

Croatian President Re-elected in Landslide Victory

Voters in Croatia have re-elected Zoran Milanovic to a second term, after he won almost three-quarters of votes cast in the country's presidential election. It was a dismal result for his opponent Dragan Primorac, who had the backing of the governing centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party. Primorac picked up 25 percent of the vote – the worst-ever result for Croatia's most powerful political force. The outcome was met with a muted response from Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. He declined to congratulate the winner and insisted that "Milanovic offers nothing". Milanovic has been a frequent critic of the governing party on issues including corruption, inflation and healthcare. While he condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he has also frequently criticised the West's military support for Kyiv. Click here to read... [20]

Zelenskyy Says He Will Send North Korean Soldiers Home in Swap for Ukrainian POWs

The Security Service for Ukraine announced on January 11 that it had captured two soldiers from North Korea in Russia’s Kursk region and they are being questioned in Kyiv. Subsequently, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he's prepared to return two captured North Korean soldiers to Pyongyang in exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war held in Russia. Zelenskyy said the two men are still being interrogated by the SSU with help of Korean translators and one of the men has reportedly said he wants to return to North Korea while the other indicated he wished to remain in Ukraine. There has been no comment from Pyongyang about the capture of the two soldiers but North Korea hasn’t publicly confirmed it has sent troops to support Russia’s war effort. A senior Ukrainian military official said last month that around 200 North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Kursk have been killed or wounded in battle. Click here to read... [21]

Sweden to Send Warships to NATO Baltic Sea Patrols After 'Sabotage' Incidents

Sweden has said it will contribute up to three warships to a NATO effort to increase the alliance's presence in the Baltic Sea as it tries to guard against sabotage of underwater infrastructure, the government announced. And the country's coast guard will contribute four ships to help monitor the Baltic, with a further seven vessels on standby. The government said this will be the first time that Sweden has contributed armed forces to the alliance's defence and deterrence since joining the alliance in March last year. Sweden became NATO’s 32nd member and followed neighbouring Finland into NATO in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The decision comes as a string of incidents in the Baltic has heightened concerns about possible Russian activities in the region. Click here to read... [22]

Ukraine Launches Largest Air Attacks on Russia Since Start of War

Ukraine’s military has claimed its largest air attacks yet on Russian territory since the start of the war nearly three years ago as Donald Trump prepares to take the presidency in the United States. The Russian Defence Ministry on January 14, said it will retaliate for the large-scale missile and drone attacks overnight, and accused Ukraine of again using missiles supplied by the US and the United Kingdom. The Russian military said most of the projectiles were shot down, with attacks targeting multiple cities and industrial sites. The Russian cities of Saratov and Engels were reportedly hit, with some damage caused to factories in the area. Some schools were forced to switch to remote learning while several airports were forced to temporarily halt air traffic. Ukraine’s military claimed that it also hit points in Bryansk, Tula and Tatarstan, with a chemical factory that makes rocket fuel and ammunition for Russia’s army among the targets. Click here to read... [23]