What if President Trump recognizes Somaliland?

In mid-November 2024, during an interview with the Independent newspaper, the former UK Defence Secretary Sir. Gavin Williamson was quoted saying he had talks with U.S President-elect Donald Trump's team on the possibility of the administration recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign state, according to Sir Williamson, the Trump team has prioritized the agenda as one of the key issues to be dealt with soon after assuming office on 20th January 2025. Somaliland which seceded from Somalia in 1991 has never been recognized by any country as a sovereign state. If this happens, the U.S. will become the first country to do so.

In early 2024, Somaliland was in the middle of a tense relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia after the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi. The MoU reported granting Addis Ababa a lease of the Berbera port coastline in Somaliland for 50 years for military and commercial purposes. In return, the Hargeisa government would hold some shares at Ethiopian Airlines and the recognized for its political sovereignty by Ethiopia.

The Strategic Importance of Somaliland (A status quo)

The ongoing Yemen conflict between the Houthis and the Yemen internationally recognized government with support from the Saudis and on the other hand, Israel who had recently launched an air strike on Yemen; has continued sparking insecurity in the Red Sea.

Obvious the Israel-Yemen conflict has just begun, it is probable that Iran will choose Yemen soil and airspace to launch strikes against Israel after the Syria-Lebanon route fell into the "pro-western", Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, which recently stated [3] that "they will not allow Syria to be used as Launchpad for attacks against Israel". There is no doubt Israel will have the full support of the U.S. President-elect Trump who has been known to advocate hardline policies against the Iranian government. So, for now, the conflict in Yemen is there to stay.

The ongoing Yemen conflict has affected the maritime route in the Red Sea which accounts for 12 percent of the global trade flows with passage and supplies of oil and gas, food, medicine, military equipment, and information cables. Due to the insecurity, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and European countries have begun shifting flows through the Cape of Good Hope though the cost and shipping time have become a stumbling block for the route.

The Bab-el Mandeb Strait: The Messiah

Somaliland's coast possesses the Bab-el Mandeb strait that connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, thus becoming the world's shortest maritime route connecting Asia and Europe.

The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden contribute approximately 15 percent [4] of the total global trade and 20 percent [4] of global container shipping as it is estimated the strait transport oil and liquefied Natural Gas in the same volume as the Suez Canal.

Compared to the Cape of Good Hope, the Bab el-Mandeb strait is less short route from the Arabian Peninsula to Europe with two to three weeks less. Using Bab el-Mandeb cuts the shipping distance by 53 percent, decreasing shipping costs, controlling inflation, and carbon emissions, and ensuring humanitarian relief aid is shipped and delivered on time.

Can the US Recognize Somaliland?

The Battle

During his interview at Heritage Foundation [5] former Somaliland President Muse Bihi Ahmed, explained his wishes for the US administration to recognize the Somaliland sovereignty. Among others, he mentioned the possibility of collective efforts with the US in countering terrorism in the Horn of Africa and promoting democracy. In Mogadishu, it was reported [6] that the Somalia government is fighting back through a lobbyist firm to persuade the President-elect Donald Trump administration to back down its plan to recognize Somaliland sovereignty.

The Motive

The Trump administration plans to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative and military influence in the Horn of Africa, by trying to divert the shipping routes from Djibouti. The US views Djibouti "a country labeled a headquarters of Military bases in Africa" as pro-China. China has financed mega projects in Djibouti from Doraleh multipurpose port, stadiums, the Office of Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the monumental complex, the People's Palace.

Djibouti plays a key role in trade-shipping connectivity between the Red Sea to the Horn of Africa, Asia, and Europe, thus becoming one of the busiest shipping routes in the world.

Trump administration is eager to "control" the Bab el-Mandeb strait so as to uphold the key global trade route. Doing so will also give room for more attacks from Israel on Yemen and Iran, a sole enemy of President-elect Trump. As the Suez and Red Sea becomes more insecure, more shipping routes will be directed via the Bab el-Mandeb strait, thus giving a geostrategic advantage to the US.

Recognition Chances and its Impacts

President Trump is known for his controversial decisions, recalling the December 2016 declaration of formal recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This Trump decision reversed almost 70 years of US foreign policy and UN Security Council Resolution 242 towards its position on the Palestine-Israel conflict.

There is no doubt of what Trump could do, as he recently stated [7] his wishes to retake the Panama Canal due to his accusations of Panama charging high shipping rates to the US and the growing influence of China in the Panama Canal.

Trump administration may recognize Somaliland although it will be politically impossible for its Western allies to do the same. According [8] to the International Chamber of Shipping trade group, European countries are the most affected by the Yemen conflict in terms of shipping costs to the US. Europe would seek alternatives to deal with both Somalia and Somaliland without disturbing the status quo, as how it did in the China-Taiwan crisis. The UK still stands firmly with its declaration of non-interference in the Somalia-Somaliland crisis while China assured Somalia of its support to safeguard Somalia's national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The new major international player in the Horn of Africa, Turkey [9], and the United Arab Emirates [10] also released their formal statements on their solidarity with Somalia. In case President Trump recognizes Somaliland sovereignty; the chances will be "another President Trump controversial statement".

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