Pakistan in 2024: A Year of Political Turmoil, Economic Struggles, and Security Challenges

As 2024 draws to a close, Pakistan finds itself in the midst of significant political, economic, and security challenges. The year began with political instability following the general elections, and this turbulence has only deepened with legal reforms, rising economic pressures, and an escalating security situation. As the year ends, the country’s future raises many questions, concerning the influence of the military on the civilian government, Pakistan’s economic dependency on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and growing insurgencies threatening to destabilize the nation further.

This article will outline some of the key developments in Pakistan's political, security, and economic landscapes throughout 2024.

Political Landscape in Pakistan: A Turbulent Start to 2024

Pakistan’s political environment in early 2024 remained fraught with uncertainty following the general elections held on February 8 [3]. The country was already facing significant challenges, from a fragile economy to widespread political discontent. While concerns about election delays were high, the electoral process continued despite disruptions, including nationwide internet shutdowns [4]. These shutdowns were reportedly aimed at curbing potential unrest amid growing tensions. Although voter turnout was slightly lower than the 2018 elections, youth participation was remarkable, with 44% of voters being between the ages of 18 and 35 [5]. This trend signified a positive shift towards greater youth engagement in Pakistan’s democratic process.

• Election Results and Political Fragmentation

A total of 167 political parties contested the 265 National Assembly seats, reflecting the diversity of Pakistan’s political landscape [6]. Among these, many independent candidates were supported by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – a party that was not allowed to participate in the electoral process under its official name—and their influence was particularly felt in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, no party managed to secure an outright majority, leading to a prolonged period of coalition negotiations. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and smaller regional parties such as the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) initiated discussions to form a government. However, internal discord over key political positions delayed the coalition-building process, creating a sense of political instability.

On the other hand, PTI-backed independents, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, explored potential alliances, even as many of them faced legal challenges and political pressure. [7] These ongoing power struggles were exacerbated by Pakistan's deepening economic crisis, underscoring the urgent need for a stable government capable of negotiating crucial financial aid [7] from international institutions like the IMF. Adding to the complexity, the Pakistan Army, with its longstanding influence over the country’s political affairs, played a significant role in supporting Shehbaz Sharif for the position of Prime Minister. His selection, however, did not provide him with a robust political mandate, leaving his leadership politically vulnerable and heavily reliant on military backing.

• Legal and Constitutional Changes Stir Controversy

The political instability in Pakistan post-election has been further exacerbated by controversial legal and constitutional reforms proposed by the PML-N-led coalition. These reforms, which aimed to centralize executive control over the judiciary, caused significant friction between the government and opposition parties. The proposed amendments, totalling more than 50 [8], sparked intense debate, particularly concerning the government's attempts to undermine judicial independence [9].

• Controversial Reforms and Military Influence

One of the most contentious legal changes was the amendment to the Pakistan Army Act of 1952, which extended the tenure of the army chief from three to five years [10] and removed the retirement age limit for four-star generals. Critics of this amendment argued that it would further consolidate military power, diminishing civilian oversight and threatening the balance of power in Pakistan’s democratic structure. Additionally, the passage of the 26th Constitutional Amendment, which empowered the Judicial Commission of Pakistan (JCP) to form a seven-member constitutional bench [11] at the Supreme Court, also raised alarms about the growing politicization of the judiciary. Critics warned that such changes could lead to delays in justice and undermine the independence of the judiciary.

Another major concern was the expansion of the Supreme Court, with the government passing legislation to increase the number of judges from 17 to 34 [12]. While the government argued that the move was necessary to address the significant backlog of pending cases [13], critics feared it could lead to judicial "packing," where appointments could be influenced by the government’s political interests. This, in turn, could weaken the judiciary’s ability to act as a check on executive power [13], further eroding Pakistan’s democratic institutions.

Economic Challenges and Fiscal Reforms

Pakistan’s financial situation in early 2024 remained precarious, with the country facing mounting economic challenges. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presented a budget of Rs. 18.877 trillion for the fiscal year 2024-2025, [14] marking a 30% increase compared to the previous year. The budget sought to address Pakistan’s balance of payments issue and reduce the fiscal deficit. However, it also included significant tax hikes, [14] with direct taxes set to rise by 48% and indirect taxes by 35%. The defence sector received the largest share of the budget, highlighting the continued influence of the military on national financial priorities.

• Tax Burden and Public Discontent

The proposed tax hikes raised concerns, particularly among the middle class, who were expected to bear the brunt of the increased fiscal burden. Critics pointed out that the government's focus on increasing taxes on the salaried class overlooked the larger issue of Pakistan’s undocumented economy [15], which remains a significant source of uncollected revenue. There were widespread concerns that the budget would fail to provide the necessary economic relief and that the continued financial struggles could further erode public trust in the government's ability to manage the economy effectively.

Furthermore, Pakistan’s dependency on IMF loans remains a significant source of vulnerability. [16] The country has been under increasing pressure to implement further economic reforms in exchange for continued financial assistance. As a result, the government faces a difficult dilemma: renegotiate terms with the IMF or impose additional taxes that could stifle economic growth. Either way, the outlook for Pakistan’s economy remains uncertain [17], and the government’s ability to manage the country’s economic challenges will be critical to maintaining stability.

Rising Security Threats

Alongside political and economic instability, Pakistan is facing an increasingly volatile security situation, particularly in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. In the first eight months of 2024 [18], 757 people were killed in insurgency-related violence. The security situation in these regions has deteriorated due to the rising influence of militant groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) [18]. The TTP has been conducting operations within Pakistan’s borders, while the BLA has grown stronger, possibly aligning with the TTP and gaining access to advanced weaponry from Afghanistan.

• Insurgency and Militant Violence

The escalating violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan [19] has significantly impacted the local populations, who are increasingly frustrated by both the militant groups and the military’s operations [20] aimed at neutralizing them. Locals have expressed concerns about the socio-economic disruption caused by the conflict, and many are calling for an end to military operations, citing the growing trust deficit between the population and the military. This situation is further complicated by unresolved issues surrounding TTP hideouts in Afghanistan, [21] with the Afghan government denying any links to militants operating across the border.

Throughout 2024, Pakistan-Afghanistan relations were marked by growing tension and complexity, with significant challenges arising from cross-border militancy. Pakistan raised concerns over the presence of TTP and other militant groups operating from Afghan soil [21], accusing the Afghan Taliban of failing to address these threats. On the other hand, Afghanistan, governed by the Taliban, denies sheltering militants, which further exacerbates the existing mistrust. Undoubtedly, both countries face challenges in managing their porous border, leading to difficulties for both the nations.

Nevertheless, the volatile security situation is not only a challenge for Pakistan internally but also for regional stability. The growing insurgencies, combined with the potential for cross-border terrorism, are expected to exacerbate the difficulties faced by the Pakistani government in maintaining law and order. In addition, the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, with Pakistan hosting millions of refugees, adds to the strain, while Pakistan’s economic challenges limit its capacity for support.

Strained Relations with China and Economic Consequences

In a surprising move, tensions between Pakistan and China have escalated following a series of attacks targeting Chinese nationals, particularly in Balochistan, and other regions. An unexpected diplomatic outburst from the Chinese Ambassador visibly demonstrated Beijing’s [22] increasing frustration over the safety of its citizens in Pakistan [23]. The deteriorating security situation for Chinese nationals in Pakistan is raising concerns about the future of their collaboration. Further, China’s deepening involvement in Pakistan, including military cooperation and strategic alliances [24], is being challenged by Pakistan’s inability to address rising threats from groups like the TTP and the BLA.

This rift could have significant economic consequences for Pakistan. China has already stalled funding for the first phase of the $6.8 billion ML-1 railway project [25], and more delays are expected unless Pakistan makes substantial security concessions. Additionally, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Pakistan’s request for China to reprofile $15 billion in power debt exacerbates Pakistan’s financial woes, particularly as the country faces a $100 billion [25] external debt repayment over the next four years. Moreover, China’s increasing focus on bypassing Pakistan for infrastructure projects, including direct routes to Iran, signals a shift in China’s strategic priorities, raising concerns about Pakistan’s geopolitical relevance. If Pakistan fails to improve security conditions, Beijing may consider disengagement, which could jeopardize key initiatives like the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), [25] a major component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Civil Society Movements in Pakistan

In 2024, civil society movements in Pakistan have gained considerable momentum, largely fuelled by leaders like Mehrang Baloch [26] and Manzoor Pashteen [27]. Mehrang Baloch, a staunch advocate for the marginalized communities of Balochistan, has emerged as a powerful voice against human rights abuses, calling for greater autonomy, economic justice, and the safeguarding of Baloch culture [28]. Meanwhile, Manzoor Pashteen, the leader of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) [29], continues to mobilize Pashtun communities in their fight against extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and military operations in the Pashtun tribal areas [29]. Both leaders have garnered significant support, particularly among the youth, for their calls to end state violence and secure justice for ethnic minorities. Despite facing government repression, including arrests and crackdowns, these movements have become a central force in Pakistan’s ongoing struggle for social justice, intensifying demands for accountability, transparency, and the cessation of systemic violence. Their activism reflects the broader human rights push in Pakistan amidst its deepening political and economic challenges.

Implications for India

Pakistan's ongoing political and economic instability in 2024 has far-reaching implications for India, impacting not only regional stability but also India’s security and strategic positioning. With a fractured political landscape and the military's growing dominance, Pakistan faces an uncertain future. This instability could manifest in several ways, including shifts in foreign policy, which may directly affect India. Pakistan's internal struggles, particularly the ongoing power struggles between civilian governments and the military, may result in inconsistent decision-making, especially concerning sensitive issues such as Kashmir and cross-border terrorism. The Pakistani military, which has historically played a central role in shaping Pakistan's foreign policy, could further escalate tensions with India by adopting more confrontational policies or increasing support for militant groups operating in Kashmir.

The economic crisis in Pakistan, compounded by mounting debt and a lack of effective governance, also poses a direct security risk to India. Economically, India should brace for the potential consequences of Pakistan's financial difficulties, which could include increased refugee flows or economic fallout. To mitigate these risks, India should focus on bolstering border infrastructure and enhancing local economic resilience in affected regions.

Moreover, Pakistan’s fragile economy is unlikely to stabilize soon, creating a breeding ground for further insurgencies and militant activities within the country’s border regions. As already mentioned, the TTP and BLA are gaining strength, particularly in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. As these insurgent groups gain traction, there is an increased possibility of cross-border terrorism spilling over into India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir. This could exacerbate the already volatile security situation in the region, forcing India to strengthen its counterterrorism measures and military preparedness along the border.

Moreover, the continuing violence and instability in Pakistan's western and northern borders could create a direct security challenge for India. A destabilized Pakistan may struggle to contain insurgent groups and militant activities, which could result in an uptick in cross-border terrorism. Groups like the TTP, which supposedly operates from sanctuaries in Afghanistan, could intensify their focus on destabilizing both Pakistan and the region, potentially leading to more frequent border skirmishes and terrorist attacks. The inability of Pakistan to control these militant activities may also have broader regional implications, with India facing the prospect of increasing instability and a more chaotic neighbourhood.

As previously stated, another significant development is the growing strain in Pakistan-China relations. The deterioration of Pakistan-China relations, marked by delays in crucial CPEC projects and China’s reluctance to continue supporting Pakistan as it faces greater security risks, could shift regional dynamics. If China begins to scale back its investments or re-evaluate its support for Pakistan, this could have significant implications for India.

In sum, the political fragmentation, economic crisis, and rising security challenges in Pakistan in 2024 represent a volatile mix of factors that will continue to affect India’s strategic considerations. As Pakistan grapples with its internal instability, India will need to remain vigilant and adaptable, monitoring the evolving situation and adjusting its security and foreign policies to protect its national interests. The implications for India are manifold, from enhanced security risks to shifts in regional power dynamics, requiring India to carefully navigate the emerging challenges in its neighbourhood.

Prognosis for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Pakistan is expected to continue grappling with a volatile political and economic environment. The country faces political paralysis, with fragmented coalitions and increasing military influence likely to hinder effective governance. The military’s increasing control over political affairs could further erode Pakistan’s democratic institutions, while continued reliance on IMF loans and rising debt will only exacerbate the country’s financial instability.

Economically, Pakistan’s ongoing struggles with inflation, rising unemployment, and a lack of substantial reforms are expected to fuel social unrest. The country’s security situation is also likely to worsen, with insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa continuing to escalate. Moreover, the growing influence of militant groups such as the TTP and BLA will complicate the government’s efforts to restore stability.

Given the complex political, economic, and security challenges facing Pakistan, 2025 is likely to be a year of continued uncertainty. The country’s ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial in determining its future trajectory.

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