Bangladesh in 2024: A Year of Political Turmoil and Transformation

The year 2024 marked a period of intense political unrest for Bangladesh, one defined by sharp political polarization, economic struggles, and significant shifts in governance. From the re-election of Sheikh Hasina at the beginning of the year to the dramatic fall of her regime, Bangladesh found itself at a critical juncture. The year was marked by mass protests, the rise of opposition coalitions, and a new phase in its political landscape. This article explores the key events and challenges that shaped Bangladesh in 2024, focusing on the political developments, economic challenges, and its implications for the future of the nation.

Sheikh Hasina's Controversial Victory and Political Polarization

January 2024 saw Sheikh Hasina, the longest-serving Prime Minister in Bangladesh's history, secure a fourth consecutive term in office after a contentious general election. Hasina’s victory marked a significant milestone in her political career, solidifying her grip on power and the leadership of the Awami League (AL). However, this victory was anything but peaceful. The general election was widely criticized for its contentious nature [3], with allegations of voter suppression, intimidation, rigging, and fraud. The contentious nature of the election sparked protests and raised serious concerns about the future of democracy in Bangladesh, especially regarding the increasing so-called authoritarianism under Hasina's rule.

The 2024 election deepened the divide between Hasina's government and the opposition forces, highlighting the long-standing political polarization in the country. The opposition forces, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party [3] (BNP), accused Hasina’s government of manipulating the election process to maintain control. Protests erupted in pockets in response to what many saw as an unfair election, raising serious questions about the future of democracy in Bangladesh.

Despite these challenges, Hasina's re-election marked the continuation of a strong central government under her leadership. Her extended tenure further entrenched the Awami League's dominance in Bangladesh's political sphere, sparking both celebrations from her supporters and fierce opposition from the dissenting groups. However, the atmosphere of mistrust and political tension prevailed in the country set the stage for significant developments later in the year.

Economic Struggles and Public Discontent

By mid-2024, Bangladesh’s political turmoil was further compounded by significant economic challenges. The country was grappling with high inflation, rising unemployment, and growing income inequality. These economic issues created widespread public dissatisfaction, particularly among the youth and the marginalized communities. The economic struggles coincided with social unrest and growing calls for political reform.

In June 2024, a major policy decision on reservation added fuel to the fire. The High Court, seen as supportive of Hasina's administration, ordered the reinstatement of the controversial quota system [4] for civil service jobs, a policy that had been abolished in 2018 following widespread protests. The reinstatement of the quota system sparked a series of student-led protests in July 2024, initially demanding the abolition of the quotas. However, the protests soon grew in scope, morphing into a nationwide movement calling for Hasina's resignation and a complete overhaul of the political system. As the unrest spread, the protests were joined by opposition parties, civil society groups, and broader political forces dissatisfied with Hasina’s leadership.

The Rise of Opposition and the Student Uprising

What started as a student protest against the civil service job quotas quickly evolved into a mass movement that included opposition parties, student groups, and civil society organizations. The protests soon became a nationwide call for democratic reforms, government accountability, and an end to Hasina's perceived authoritarian rule. The demonstrations reflected the growing frustration among Bangladeshis who felt that their voices had been silenced by the government’s heavy-handed tactics.

By July-August 2024, the protests had escalated into violent confrontations, with security forces using force to suppress demonstrators. Widespread clashes between protesters and police led to hundreds of casualties, and the situation quickly spiralled out of control. The military, once a key supporter of Hasina’s regime, found itself in a difficult position, with divisions within the armed forces on how to address the crisis.

In a dramatic turn of events, on August 5, 2024, Hasina's regime was overthrown in what became a historic moment in Bangladesh's political history. The military, which had previously backed Hasina, brokered a deal that led to the formation of an interim government. This new government was composed of representatives from civil society, the opposition, and the military, signalling the end of Hasina's two-decade-long rule.

The Emergence of Dr. Muhammad Yunus as the Head of Interim Government

Amid the political chaos, the interim government sought to restore stability and navigate Bangladesh through a period of political and economic uncertainty. Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel (Peace Prize) laureate known for his work in microfinance and poverty alleviation, was appointed as the chief adviser of the interim government on August 8, 2024. Yunus, widely respected both within Bangladesh and internationally, was tasked with overseeing the country's transition to a more democratic and stable political system.

Upon his appointment, Yunus emphasized the need for free and fair elections, judicial reforms, and a crackdown on corruption. The interim government also made clear its commitment to restoring political freedoms and curbing the influence of dynastic politics, which had come to characterize Hasina’s rule. However, as with any transitional government, challenges abounded. The new leadership faced immense pressure to live up to its promises, especially in terms of electoral reforms and the protection of minority rights.

The Resurgence of Religious and Ethnic Tensions?

One of the most concerning developments since Yunus took office was the rise in violence targeting religious and ethnic minorities, particularly the Hindus. Reports of attacks on Hindu temples and minority communities surfaced throughout 2024, with Indian officials stating that over 2,200 cases of violence [5] against Hindus/minorities had been reported by December 8, 2024. These incidents have raised concerns about escalating communal tensions and the stability of Bangladesh's secular identity. However, the Yunus government has claimed that most of these attacks are exaggerated and politically driven.

At the same time, the country faced increased political instability, with the interim government confronting the spectre of political vendettas against Awami League members and their supporters. Legal cases are also filed against several leaders of the Awami League, including Sheikh Hasina, for alleged crimes such as murder, genocide, abduction, and corruption. The deepening divide between the Awami League and their opposition further complicated the political transition and added to the overall uncertainty facing Bangladesh.

The Role of Extremism and Security Threats

The power vacuum created by Hasina’s removal also allowed for the rise of religious extremists and terrorist groups, further complicating the country’s already fragile security situation. In August the chief of an al-Qaeda inspired militant outfit Ansar al Islam [6], was released from prison after having all charges against him dismissed. Additionally, in October 2024, a group of young men paraded through Dhaka calling for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate [7], signalling a disturbing trend of growing extremist sentiment in the country.

This resurgence of extremism has raised fears about the future of Bangladesh's secular government structure and its ability to maintain law and order. As Bangladesh navigates its political transition, the threat of extremism will remain a significant concern, particularly for the new interim government, which will need to strengthen security forces and counteract extremist influences.

Economic Challenges: The IMF Loan and Inflation Woes

Amidst political and security challenges, Bangladesh's economic situation in 2024 was marked by further instability. The country secured a crucial loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the amount of $4.7 billion, with $1.16 billion [8] already disbursed by April 2024. This loan was vital for stabilizing the country’s foreign reserves, which had reached dangerously low levels in recent months.

Despite the loan, Bangladesh’s economy continued to face significant challenges. According to the World Bank, the country’s real GDP growth slowed to 5.2% in FY24 [9], primarily due to weak consumption and exports. Inflation surged to 11.38 percent [10] in November, the highest in four months, as food prices remained persistently high despite a reduction in import taxes on several essential items over the past three months. While there was a slight increase in foreign exchange reserves, the country’s fiscal deficit remained a concern, highlighting the need for substantial economic reforms to stabilize the economy.

Shifting Foreign Relations

The political transition in Bangladesh also had significant implications for the country's foreign relations. Under Hasina’s rule, Bangladesh maintained strong ties with India and China. However, with the formation of the interim government, Bangladesh’s foreign policy began to shift to a considerable extent. Dr. Yunus sought to strengthen relations with the United States, making a historic visit to meet US President Joe Biden at the sidelines of UN General Assembly in September 2024 (a meeting of the two-state leaders on UNGA sidelines after 34 years [11]). However, with the return of a Republican administration in the US, it remains to be seen how this relationship will evolve.

In addition, Dhaka has also enhanced its cooperation with China, its largest trading partner, and the primary arms supplier. It has reached out to the interim government [12], stressing the importance of continuing projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Despite enjoying cordial relations with Hasina during her rule, it is anticipated that in a Bangladesh where institutions are dominated by the anti-Awami League coalition of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, Beijing could secure considerable influence, due to their longstanding opposition to both India and the West [13], along with their ongoing rhetoric and political agendas.

At the same time, Bangladesh's relationship with Pakistan also appeared to be warming, with Yunus and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif discussing the revival of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in different multilateral forums and the need for stronger ties between Dhaka and Islamabad. Post-Hasina, relations between Dhaka and Islamabad appear to be heading towards rapprochement [14], which is likely to foster improved political and trade relations between the two countries. This shift in foreign policy was seen as a move away from India, creating potential challenges in the New Delhi-Dhaka relationship.

Implications for India: A Changing Political Landscape

The political upheaval in Bangladesh has had direct implications for India, which had enjoyed a strong partnership with Sheikh Hasina’s government. India’s relationship with Bangladesh, based on shared economic and security interests, is now in flux due to the political transition. The rise of anti-India rhetoric from the interim administration, along with incidents of violence against Bangladeshi Hindus, has strained relations between the two countries.
Following Hasina’s ouster, key figures in the interim government have voiced more confrontational positions toward India. Recently India has expressed strong objections to Dhaka following a now-deleted social media post by a prominent aide of Bangladesh's interim government. Mahfuz Alam, known for his controversial statements, shared a map on Facebook that depicted parts of West Bengal, Tripura, and Assam as part of Bangladesh. The post was swiftly removed after it sparked widespread condemnation [15].

This shift has come at a time when the two countries face unresolved issues such as border killings, trade imbalances, and the Teesta water-sharing dispute. These longstanding issues have always been a source of tension, but under Hasina’s leadership, diplomatic mechanisms were in place to manage these challenges. Now, with a new interim government, India faces an uncertain future regarding its relationship with Bangladesh.

Few other recent events have further heightened tensions. . The arrest of Chinmoy Roy [16], a former leader of the International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON) in Bangladesh, and attacks on diplomatic properties have fuelled the sense of vulnerability in the bilateral relationship. These incidents are symbolic of a deeper fracture, with rising anti-India sentiment among certain segments of Bangladesh’s political and public spheres. Additionally, the recent increase in violence against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, including attacks on temples, has raised alarm in India, as it threatens the societal and cultural ties that have long connected the two nations. The growing insecurity faced by religious minorities, particularly Hindus, who are a significant community in both countries, is also an issue of concern for India. Furthermore, the demand among sections in India to cut trade ties with Bangladesh [17], along with the shutdown of [18], has strained diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Furthermore, India and Bangladesh have been at odds on issues such as border management, water sharing, and trade imbalances. The longstanding Teesta water-sharing dispute remains unresolved, with political sensitivities in both countries stalling progress on an agreement. The border, which has seen occasional clashes and killings, continues to be a source of tension. These unresolved issues, coupled with the more nationalistic rhetoric emanating from Bangladesh's interim government, threaten to escalate tensions between the two countries.

Despite a recent visit by India’s Foreign Secretary to address these concerns, both countries highlighted their differing stances on multiple issues. Therefore, India is now confronted with a dual challenge. On one hand, it has lost a trusted ally in Sheikh Hasina, who was a stabilizing force in the region and a reliable partner for India. On the other hand, India must now recalibrate its approach toward Bangladesh’s interim government, which in order to assert its independence are distancing itself from its previous alignment with New Delhi. The dynamics of the bilateral relationship have changed, and therefore India must carefully navigate these new realities while attempting to safeguard its strategic interests in the region.

The question of Sheikh Hasina's potential extradition from India has also emerged as a key point of contention. The uncertainty surrounding this issue, coupled with the shifting political dynamics in Bangladesh, adds another layer of complexity to the relationship. As both nations move forward, the future of India-Bangladesh relations will depend on how both countries address these challenges and find common ground amid political turbulence and evolving regional dynamics. The coming years are likely to see India adopting a more cautious and flexible approach to its ties with Bangladesh, recognizing the need to engage with a new political landscape while addressing old grievances. India’s challenge now is to navigate this changing dynamic, balancing its long-standing alliance with Bangladesh with the realities of the new political landscape.

Looking Ahead: Bangladesh in 2025

As Bangladesh enters 2025, the country faces a period of political, economic, and social transition. While the interim government under Muhammad Yunus has promised reforms and free elections, skepticism remains about its ability to bring meaningful change. Till now there is no unified political vision or agreement on the future direction of Bangladesh after Hasina's departure. It is assumed that the Awami League’s arch-rival BNP wishes for early elections, while other political stakeholders prefer to delay the electoral process. No doubt, the lack of a clear timeline for elections and a broader political transition will increase uncertainty and, over time, may lead to greater unrest. Moreover, the rise of extremism, growing communal violence, and political vendettas present significant challenges for the new government.

Economically, Bangladesh’s growth prospects appear cautious, with inflation remaining high and investor confidence shaken by political instability. Therefore, the country's ability to stabilize its economy and secure sustainable growth will be a key concern in 2025.

In conclusion, Bangladesh’s future remains uncertain as it moves through a period of profound political, social, and economic upheaval. The outcome of this transition will depend on the interim government’s ability to address the country’s deep-rooted challenges and restore political stability. The international community, particularly India, will closely watch the developments in Bangladesh, as the country’s path forward will have far-reaching implications for the region.

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