Syria is the Game Changer for Big Powers

Some dates go down in history as unprecedented and unanticipated developments usher in often unexpected and unannounced outcomes. Moreover, wars and their impacts are not unconnected or limited to a particular geography. October 7, 2023 terror attacks by the Palestinian militant group Hamas against Israel leading to killing of 1200 Israelis and taking of 250 hostages was unprecedented and naturally unexpected by the Israeli establishment even though writing on the wall was clear, given the internal domestic discord generated by Prime Minister Netanyahu and his ultra-right wing colleagues especially Smotrich and Ben Gvir who would rather bomb the Palestinians. They have become a proverbial bell around the neck of Netanyahu who himself has had a credibility crisis due to ongoing corruption cases. Impending Saudi normalization of ties with the Jewish state was a key trigger for the attacks.

The Hamas attacks humiliated Netanyahu even more and dis-honoured the most powerful army and intelligence machine in the region. Response to avenge the humiliation was on predictable lines. Bomb Gaza flat and destroy the Hamas, once a useful tool to keep Palestinian factions from getting united. While he frittered away the initial global sympathy for the people of Israel due to his disproportionate military campaign lasting over 14 months with limited success and lot of destruction. But they decimated the Hamas leadership and fighters significantly.

Then IDF convincingly took on Hezbollah to their North, which has been able to maintain pressure through a consistent low warfare in support of Hamas since October 8, 2023 itself against Israel -forcing evacuation and relocation of over 70000 Israelis from the border areas. In a masterly stroke they eliminated the top political and military leadership including Nasrallah through decapitation strategy sending the powerful Hezbollah in utter disarray but the very possession of a huge arsenal of missiles and weapons and committed fighters eventually forced a ceasefire arranged by USA and France between the embattled Lebanon, Israel and Hezbollah. USA remained the iron clad ally and supporter of Israel even if they were against the ‘mowing of the grass’ strategy of Netanyahu. Moreover, Biden and democrats lost the elections to Trump another big ally of Israel, but US also gained little and lost much more within the larger region for their double standards and failure to restrain Netanyahu as the civilian casualties continued to rise. Trump has in any case asked Netanyahu to ‘finish the job’ before he reenters the White House on January 20- which is being followed literally.

On the other front, Russia has been engaged in a war of attrition with Ukraine backed by US and the West for nearly three years. War is seen by Moscow as against NATO and perceived as a real security threat to its existence. Over 19000 sanctions have indeed weakened and impacted its overall wellbeing. Its capacity to influence the global landscape has been limited even if the war economy and certain non-western initiatives like the BRICS and SCO have acquired greater traction. Its capacity to fight wars abroad and lack of manpower and shortage of weapon systems and equipment became key restrictive features for retaining and steer geopolitical influence. Syria was no exception. Russia, having learnt its lessons from the perfidy of the West in Libya, came to the rescue of Bashar al Assad in 2015, who was next on the regime change agenda. It took more than 13 years for the West to achieve that objective on December 8, when Assad regime fell unceremoniously to Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) and other militia groups supported by USA and Turkey. He had to flee to Moscow to save his life. Russians became another big loser in the region since their propping up of Assad for over a decade was perceived as Russian loyalty to friends and Moscow strategically positioned itself back into the region. How it will play out now for them is an open question.

Half a century of Assad regime ended on December 8. The rapidity, precision and speed with which the Hayat tahrir Al Sham (HTS) and its allies captured Damascus and all major cities on the historic M5 route without much opposition by Assad forces, that really melted away, is quite telling. The tumultuous popular support and welcome the Jolani forces received only confirmed the ill effects and deep-seated anger against an autocratic regime. Euphoria and expectations of the masses and the 13 million internally and externally displaced Syrians and refugees would require genuine conciliatory efforts and significant international support in this diverse and complex ancient society. Fears of minorities in Shia, Alawites, Druze and Christians as well as former Assad supporters will need to be allayed. No doubt the geopolitics among the various regional and global actors will exploit the fault lines while HTS leader Mohammed Al Sharaa @ Jolani (formerly of ISIS and Al Qaeda notoriety) and his interim government are overtly adopting an inclusive and justice and reconciliation driven policies. But how much religious and other freedom they will in reality accord to the diverse and modern Syrians especially women will also impact the future course of Syrian socio-economic journey. Meeting the expectations and aspirations of the masses in a revolutionary fervor is a big challenge for any regime in the aftermath.

The Syrian imbroglio has its own dynamic and impact for several regional and extra regional actors. Taking stock of the balance sheet might be instructive.

Israel

Assad regime and Israeli leadership have had an understanding even though IDF have been attacking inside Syria on the Hezbollah and Iranian targets. In 1967 they had occupied Golan Heights but in 1974 an understanding was reached and breached now. Then Trump declared Golan Heights as integral part of Syria in his first term. But a battle ready Netanyahu lost no time and capitalized on the power vacuum and transition in Syria by capturing the whole of Golan Heights including the highest strategic Mt Hermon which provides it with the supervisory advantage over Lebanon and Syria. Israeli forces carried out over 480 strikes in early days of the fall of Assad destroying Syrian chemical and Research Centers, military bases and ammunition depots and naval facilities in Tartus and Latakia to avoid these falling into the ‘hands of extremists’. Israeli forces have breached the buffer zone and Syrian sovereignty, much to the chagrin of international community and UN and condemnation by the Arab states. But Netanyahu reaffirmed that his forces would stay and guard against misadventure on the strategic areas. The occupation of Golan Heights and violation of territorial integrity of Syria is also an emotive issue and will remain major friction points for succeeding regimes along with the support of the Palestinian issue as far as their relationship with Israel is concerned even though currently pragmatic HTS leadership have clearly stated that they do not want a war with Israel.

Iran

Syria- its strategic connectivity landscape in the Levant and Bashar Al Assad were the important part of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance ‘along with its 3or 4 Hs i.e. Houthis in Yemen; Hamas in Gaza; Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria; and Kataib Hezbollah and Islamic Shia militias in Iraq which helped Tehran in exercising disproportionate strategic advantage in the Middle East for several decades now. Israel- Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah wars since October 2023 have completely annihilated that capacity at least in the short to medium term. Hence their inability to sustain Assad any longer confirmed that weakness and loss of credibility. HTS leaders have warned Iran against interfering in troubled waters. Therefore, Tehran no longer enjoys the asymmetric advantage regionally and is even domestically stretched due to the continuing prolonged and pervasive sanctions. Trump factor also plays on their mind. In fact, although Iran and Israel have been fighting shadow wars afflicted by the MAD syndrome, they engaged in direct retaliatory attacks on each other in 2024 taking the escalation ladder to new high. Its new and less conservative government led by President Dr Pezeshkian is open to better relations with the West while it remains a strong advocate of the Palestinian cause. However, even as they have made a demarche with Trump team through their PR in New York, it is possible that given its enrichment progression Tehran conservatives may push for early acquisition of nuclear weapons capability to counter Israeli strategic advantage in the region. Even though Iran has mended fences with Saudi Arabia and other regional majors the Iran-Israel escalation and competition remains a major threat to the regional peace, security and stability.

Turkey

Turkey perhaps has been the biggest trigger and gainer in this demolition of Assad regime through its consistent support to rebel groups against Bashar Al Assad who was standing against its leader’s neo-Ottomanic ambitions. Assad and Erdogan have been at loggerheads at least since the Arab Spring in 2011. Kurdish factor and presence of PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) fighters and rebels whom Ankara labeled as terrorists and bombed from time to time. Not only Assad did not care for his own people but refused to deal with the rebels whom he called as terrorists which also became a major bone of contention between Ankara and Damascus. While, Turkey’s support to HTS and other militia groups like the Syrian National Army (SNA) have been critical in deposing Assad its own geostrategic objectives of defeating and eliminating the Kurdish US supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have placed it in direct confrontation with US-its own NATO ally. Hence, some solution is to be found to justifiably deal with and accommodate the Kurdish interests lest a step towards civil war is difficult to avoid. Turkey will indeed be a key player going forward.

The Gulf States

Syria has also been the play ground of Gulf majors like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar who fully supported the western regime change agenda and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the last standing Arab leader after the fall of Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi. Their interventionist policies, predicated to contain Iranian influence, could not succeed due to the Russian support and presence which was also dictated by their much-needed access to the Mediterranean by way of protecting its Tartous naval base in Syria. They, however expelled Assad from the Arab League. But overtime realized that Assad had been well entrenched as he regained most of territory except some in the North by 2020. UAE took the lead and despite the US sanctions and Caesar’s Act reestablished diplomatic ties and provided assistance hoping to secure a large part in the Syrian reconstruction process. Others followed too. Finally, Assad was invited to be part of the Arab brotherhood and Arab League and accepted by most except Qatar, which was the first one to open its embassy after the fall of Assad. However, the Arab and Gulf countries are keen that the Syrian territorial integrity and sovereignty must be respected and maintained even during the ongoing transition which they are carefully watching while reaching out to the new rulers trying to consolidate their hold. They have a strategic concern with the expanding influence and control of Ankara and Tel Aviv in the Syrian landscape. Jordan took a lead and played a key role in hosting the Arab Foreign Minister on December 14 at Aqaba on Red Sea. A Joint communique, while implicitly condemning external interference by Turkey and Israel emphasized Syria’s territorial integrity and called for an inclusive Syrian-led transition through a comprehensive national dialogue. Going forward Qatar and Turkey are most likely to emerge as power brokers, since after the infamous blockade of Qatar by its sisterly Gulf states for four years, it has acquired a status of a ‘Go To’ country for many a regional and extra regional problems. However, the divergent strategies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) majors in Syria may have their own complicating dynamic which would need to be watched.

China

Beijing has become a key player and has expanded its influence and interests in the region but has normally dealt with the region on ‘As is Where Basis’ without being prescriptive or interventionist as long as its geoeconomic interests are served. Syria has become the last country in the region to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing succeeded in picking up from Iraq and Oman and enabled the diplomatic rapprochement in 2023 between arch rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran which has continued to deepen as exchanges between Tehran and Riyadh and other regional majors continue apace. It also vetoed any resolution against Assad and worked in concert with Russia. Mostly China made standard statements for security and stability of Syria rather than concrete initiatives. It is also concerned by the reports that Uyghurs’ Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) fighters have been fighting alongside HTS in Syria. But Beijing, given its diplomatic agility, could be fast in trying to regain access and influence with the new dispensation. Meanwhile it has offered to play a constructive role in stabilising situation as Beijing underscored the importance of UNSCR 2254 in advancing its domestic political process in line with the Syrian-led and Syrian-owned principles, and finding a national reconstruction plan through inclusive dialogue

As the USA and Europeans know how to legitimise the terrorists and non-state actors overnight according to their flexible standards, they have begun to actively engage with the new Syrian whitewashed regime. Hopefully, the engagement will be good for the stability of the regime as per existing international norms for the sake of suffering of millions of Syrians who have had enough in past decades of wars and atrocities and who have placed a great hope in the new Avatar of their west backed rulers.

India

New Delhi has always stood for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Syria. She continued to provide humanitarian assistance and retained high level exchanges all along. Counter terrorism cooperation was equally important as the ISIS and Al Qaeda are once again finding fertile ground in the conflict zones of the Levant and elsewhere. In fact just a few weeks before the momentous change the two sides had the foreign office consultations. However, as the safety and security of Indian pilgrims and workers remained a cause of concern for India in the evolving scenario, she evacuated several of them. Indian Ambassador remained present all along for continuing the dialogue as the new dispensation stabilizes. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs in a statement on December 9, reiterated “We underline the need for all parties to work towards preserving the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria. We advocate a peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process respecting the interests and aspirations of all sections of Syrian society.”

Hope is Still Belied

While 2024 has been one of the most destabilising year for the region the fate of the 2025 does not seem any different with active and simmering conflicts and hotspots in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, Iraq and Sudan and continued heft of the extremist non-state actors in different geographies yet working in tandem which will challenge the diplomacy establishments from time to time with regard to security and stability in the region. Worse are the failings of the so called rules based international order and the impotent multilateral institutions- whose defiance even by the smaller and middle powers has become a norm and cause of destruction and pervasive instability in West Asia and the world. It is difficult to envisage any change in 2025 since Trump himself is a quite a disruptionist.

(The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation. The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere, and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct). (The paper does not necessarily represent the organisational stance... More >>