Review of the 21st Valdai Discussion Club Meeting

In a wide ranging four hour long open and frank interaction with the participants of the Valdai Discussion Club (VDC) meeting held in Sochi on 07 Nov 2024, Putin touched upon a variety of issues ranging from the rise of new multilateralism, the prospects for expanded BRICS, technology, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia’s relations with China, India, Japan, Europe, Africa, and Central Asian countries.

Emphasising that the old-world order based on US hegemony is coming to an end, he observed that a new multipolar world order is arising. Coining a new phrase, he said that the countries belonging to the “world majority” were rebelling against the hegemony of the West and were finding BRICS to be an attractive alternative. He elaborated on the six principles of new world order he had enumerated at Valdai Discussion Club in 2023, namely; openness to cooperation; civilisational attributes, cultural diversity; maximum representation; equal security for all; fairness and sovereign equality.

Reacting to Trump’s election as the next President of the US, President Putin said that Russia was willing to deal with the newly elected US president Trump and would respond to any initiative taken by him. Emphasising the importance of strategic stability, he observed that it was the US which had walked out of the nuclear arms control talks. Russia would be willing to restart the negotiation if the US shows a willingness to do so.

Putin has positive words to say about the President-elect Donald Trump. He lamented that the media had unjustifiably disparaged Trump as unintelligent and ignorant person. He observed that Trump’s true character exhibiting strength, courage and resolve came out when an assassination attempt was made on him. Putin saw Trump as a leader with whom business can be done.

He made some significant points which tally with Indian thinking. He underlined that: -

A single uniform model of development cannot prevail. The UNSC needs reforms. Regional organisation have an important role to play in the global order. The Eastern philosophy of win-win approach brings harmony. Bloc based zero-sum approach should be eschewed. The migration wave has led to intolerance and conflict. Ways must be found to deal with the migration crises.

Having survived the war with Ukraine for two years, Putin exudes confidence. He warned the West that their effort to defeat Russia strategically would not succeed. Russia provides global stability. If Russia was to be destroyed, the world would become highly unstable. Russia’s existence was a guarantee for global stability. Russia was fighting for its identity and sovereignty. It was also fighting for universal freedom and sovereign equality. He came down heavily on the West for using sanctions as a tool. He pointed out that Russia had survived the sanctions. Its economy was growing at three percent. Inflation had come down. Russia was emerging as a technology power house.

In the Q/A, Putin touched on several topics:

He described India as a ‘major power’ along with the US, China and Russia and Modi as a great leader. He highlighted India’s role in the making of an equal, just non-hierarchical multilateral world order. He said he listened to Modi’s views on Ukraine with great respect.

He identified energy cooperation including LNG, high technology, AI and joint defence production as the promising areas of cooperation between the two countries.

On the AI, he said it was a promising technology. Russia has made good progress on developing AI and quantum technology. But AI can be dangerous too. It would need supervision and regulation.

He gave a very positive and optimistic assessment of BRICS Summit in Kazan. He highlighted that BRICS represents a new kind of multilateralism is diverse, equal and non-hierarchical. BRICS is diverse. Inclusivity is its strength. Despite the diversity, it is possible to build common approaches around common issues. The expanded BRICS is ‘gaining traction’ as more and more countries, tired of Western hegemony and unilateralism want to join it. He also clarified that in his view an alternate currency to dollar was not feasible. But BRICS can certainly build a common platform for alternate payment system, sharing of financial and trade information can be built. BRICS countries are not anti West. He described them as “non-west” representing the “world majority”. Citing the relaxation of tensions between India and China, Putin said that BRICS members understand the importance of compromise and accommodation. He praised Modi and Xi for their farsightedness in resolving the current border issues.

Putin was extremely critical of the Western approach to weaponise the world financial structures. He said that Russia had shown great resilience and survived thousands of illegal western sanctions. The Russian economy was growing at 3 percent per annum. Inflation was coming down. Unemployment was less than 3 percent. Russia was facing acute shortages of manpower and was open to regulated migration of workers from abroad. Russia remains an energy super power. But since 2022 it has become a major agricultural, manufacturing and technological power house. He pointed out that many Western companies were ready to come back to Russia but they are being prevented from to do so by their governments.

He was all praise for China, the BRI. He stated categorically that any dialogue with the US, if it happens, will not be at the expense of China.

Assessment

Putin is confident, resolute and sure of himself. The successful holding of the BRICS Plus summit in Kazan has boosted his confidence. The summit shows that the Russia is not isolated in the world.

His confidence stems from favourable military situations in the ongoing war and economic resilience.

In his scheme of the strong relations with China are indispensable. India too figures high on Russia’s priorities.

He hopes that in the new world order, countries will be treated equally and fairly and will be able to resolve their disputes through dialogue and mutual accommodation. He cited the exchange of Xi-Modi meeting at Kazan on the agreement on border issues.

He is super critical about the West’s approaches to destroy Russia. He said that trust with West has been broken and it is up to the West to restore it.

He is open to dialogue with Trump if the latter take the initiative.

On Ukraine, there is not likely to be any let up. He feels that Ukraine is under pressure militarily. Major European economies are going down. Trump’s approach to Ukraine is likely to be different from that of Biden. These factors give Russia an edge in the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine.

India should watch the situation carefully. There is a lot of potential in India-Russia relations that can be tapped as the geopolitical environment turns with the arrival of Trump. A strong relationship with Russia will be favourable for India’s defence, economic, energy and food security. This is the right time to expand Indo-Russian relations in new areas. Russia is looking forward to working closely with India in the expanded BRICS format and to build multipolarity.

(The paper is the author’s individual scholastic articulation. The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere, and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct). (The paper does not necessarily represent the organisational stance... More >>