Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor (04-10 November 2024)

Economic

China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump

China gave indebted local governments a 10 trillion-yuan ($1.4 trillion) lifeline but stopped short of unleashing new stimulus, preserving room to respond to a potential trade war when Donald Trump takes office next year. Officials unveiled details of a programme to refinance “hidden” local debt onto public balance sheets at a press briefing in Beijing on Nov 08. Funds for that program — telegraphed last month but without a price tag or timeframe — will be provided through 2028, they said, after the move was authorized by the nation’s top lawmaking body. While policymakers didn’t announce measures to directly stimulate domestic demand, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised “more forceful” fiscal policy next year, signalling bolder steps could come after Trump’s inauguration in January. The US president-elect has threatened 60% tariffs on Chinese goods that could decimate trade between the world’s largest economies, and blight exports that have been a rare bright spot for the Asian nation this year. “Policymakers probably saw no need for a robust response to Trump’s victory before he takes office, given the relatively restrained post-election market response,” said Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Next year is a different matter, but officials will take that as it comes.” Click here to read... [2]

Global businesses bet on China’s market despite Trump win, US trade tensions

Foreign businesses from the United States, South Korea and Germany pledged commitment to China’s market and supply chains during big import fair in Shanghai, despite the potential of a new trade war between the world’s top two economies after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. At a media event tied to the China International Import Expo on Nov 07, several companies showed how they are investing in artificial intelligence (AI) and various digital technologies across their mainland supply chains, while stressing the market’s importance in spite of an economic slowdown and geopolitical risks. 3M, the US conglomerate that produces products ranging from industrial to household items, said it is deploying intelligent solutions such as robot arms in its automotive product lines in China to track product parameters and give recommendations to customers based on their requirements. The company established its Chinese business 40 years ago and has seven factories on the mainland. A localised supply chain provides benefits for both development and manufacturing, according to Jack Xiong, 3M China’s director of research and development operations in Greater China. It helps the company develop products “close to the needs of local customers” and “improves the speed of response in the supply chain”, he said. Click here to read... [3]

Russian rocket takes Iranian satellites into orbit as ties grow closer

A Russian rocket carrying a payload of satellites into orbit – including two from Iran – blasted off successfully, Russia’s Roscosmos space agency said, in a move seen as reflecting the growing cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. The Soyuz-2.1 spacecraft lifted off as scheduled from the Vostochny Cosmodrome launchpad in far eastern Russia and put its payload into a designated orbit nine minutes after the launch on Nov 05. Roscosmos said that two Russian Ionosfera-M satellites – designed to monitor the space weather around Earth – and 53 small satellites, including two from Iran, were placed into orbit successfully. Among the 53 small satellites, the two Iranian satellites were identified as the Kowsar, a high-resolution imaging satellite, and Hodhod, a small communications satellite. A Russian-Chinese student satellite, Druzhba ATURK, was also placed into orbit. The Iranian satellites are the first launched on behalf of the country’s private sector, with the Kowsar manufactured by the Omidfaza company, which began designing the satellite in 2019, Iran’s official IRNA news agency reported. The Kowsar has an expected lifespan of three years and the Hodhod should operate for four years, according to the IRNA. In 2022, a Russian rocket launched an Iranian Earth observation satellite called Khayyam, which was built in Russia at Tehran’s request. Russia put another Iranian satellite named Pars-1 into orbit in February. Click here to read... [4]

Year 2024 to be the first to breach 1.5C warming limit: EU climate agency

For the first time, the Earth’s temperature in 2024 has risen more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average, according to the European Union’s climate agency. On Nov 07, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said this year is also “virtually certain” to eclipse 2023 as the world’s warmest since records began. “This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29,” C3S deputy director Samantha Burgess said, days before nations are due to gather for crunch climate talks led by the United Nations. The European agency said the world was passing a “new milestone” of temperature records that should be a call to accelerate action to cut planet-heating emissions at the UN negotiations in Azerbaijan next week. Last month – marked by deadly flooding in Spain and Hurricane Milton in the United States – was the second hottest October on record, with average global temperatures second only to the same period in 2023. “Humanity’s torching the planet and paying the price,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a speech on Nov 07, listing a string of disastrous floods, fires, heatwaves and hurricanes across the world this year so far. Click here to read... [5]

The New Investment Superpower Outflanking China and the U.S. in Africa

Across the world, the U.S., China and Russia are rubbing up against each other as Beijing and Moscow try to establish a new international order. The tiny United Arab Emirates is looking closer to home. The petrostate has invested billions of dollars on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, in Africa, where it is now emerging as a significant player, at times muscling out China and annoying the U.S. and others. It has taken sides in local wars and spent heavily on buying farmland, ports and other projects that could help reduce its own dependence on oil in the decades to come. Plenty of countries appear eager for its largess. When Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni handed out military medals earlier this year, the highest honour, the Distinguished Order of the Crested Crane, First Class, went to Sheikh Mohammed Bin Maktoum Bin Juma Al Maktoum, a senior member of the U.A.E’s royal family, and the first ever foreigner to receive it. “Uganda has become my second home,” Mohammed said in televised remarks after landing at Entebbe airport, shortly before announcing that his family’s investment fund, Alpha MBM, would expedite $4.5 billion in funding for Uganda’s first oil refinery. The U.A.E., building on its long-held position as the biggest importer of African gold, has significantly changed the landscape in Uganda thanks to its free-spending ways. Click here to read... [6]

German Industry Retreats Further as Government Collapse Deepens Crisis

German industrial production fell in September, signalling that manufacturing remains in poor health and adding to the country’s woes as leading companies mull factory closures and its coalition government collapsed. Output dropped 2.5% on month in September, on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, nearly offsetting the 2.6% rise in August, German statistics agency Destatis said Nov 07. The result was sharply weaker than economists’ expectations of a 0.9% decline, from a poll compiled by The Wall Street Journal. On year, production has dwindled 4.6%. The sharp drop indicates that a full recovery isn’t yet underway, as Germany has to come to terms with the fact that the traditional business model of cheap energy and easily accessible large export markets is no longer working, ING bank’s global head of macro research Carsten Brzeski said. German industrial production remains well behind its pre-pandemic level. Higher energy prices, driven by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical supply tensions and the weakening of Chinese demand for German goods have particularly hit output in recent years. In separate data published Nov 07, German exports dropped 1.7% in September, narrowing Germany’s trade surplus, which will likely suffer under Donald Trump’s second presidency should he impose stringent tariffs. The German economy sends around 10% of its exports to the U.S. Click here to read... [7]

Nuclear Energy’s AI Boom Blew a Fuse—Here’s What Could Happen Next

Owners of nuclear power plants had been riding high on hopes that they could sign lucrative contracts with tech companies to sell always-available power. A ruling from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission won’t extinguish those prospects but does throw a bit of cold water on them. Late on Nov 08, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected Talen Energy’s request to increase the amount of power that it could provide directly from its existing Susquehanna nuclear power plant to Amazon’s data centre from 300 megawatts to 480 MW. That hamstrings Talen’s ability to step up the amount of power it sells directly to Amazon, whose co-located data centre has a potential capacity of up to 960 MW. By denying Talen’s revised agreement, FERC is emphasizing that it would “continue to prioritize grid reliability and existing stakeholders over rapid load growth and new power market entrants,” renewable energy-focussed financial service firm Karbone wrote in a note to clients. The ruling follows objections from utilities including Exelon and American Electric Power who argued that the nuclear power plant would benefit from the grid’s transmission system without paying for it. FERC didn’t address the transmission cost aspect in its rejection, but simply said the parties didn’t meet the “high burden” to justify the change. Click here to read... [8]

Rare Earth Prices Soar as Myanmar's Mining Operations Halt

“People are running around the world looking for rare earth elements.” This one sentence in the South China Morning Post, quoting James Chin, Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, sums up the current rare earths situation well. Chin’s comment is even more true following the recent supply disruptions in Myanmar, which caused a rise in the global prices of rare earths. Amid the ongoing civil war in that country, a rebel group managed to take over a leading mining centre in mid-October. This has directly affected Chinese rare earth miners and suppliers, with some Chinese media outfits reporting that mining operations in Myanmar are effectively suspended due to the takeover. As much as 50% of the global heavy rare earths supply comes from Myanmar. According to news sources from inside the country, the long haul for rare earths will likely see prices increase even more in the coming months, especially as supply dwindles further. Also, don’t let volatile rare earths prices catch you off guard. The major rare earth mining areas in Myanmar, which include Chipwi, Pang War, Phimaw and Hsawlaw, came under the control of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) due to recent military operations. The KIA seized control of Pang War, the largest rare earth mine in Myanmar, on October 18. Click here to read... [9]

Air Pollution Soars in World's Capital Cities

Among the capital cities of 134 countries and regions analysed in the 2023 World Air Quality Report published by air purification equipment manufacturer IQAir, New Delhi ranked first with an average annual PM2.5 concentration of 92.7 micrograms per cubic meter of air. As Statista's Florian Zandt reports, this number exceeds the most recent World Health Organization goal 17 times, and only one other capital city comes close in IQAir's ranking. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, exhibited an annual average PM2.5 concentration of 80.2 micrograms per cubic meter of air, followed by Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), Dushanbe (Tajikistan) and Baghdad (Iraq) with 46.6, 46.0 and 45.8 micrograms, respectively. The first capital city not located in Asia or Africa on the list is Sarajevo with 28.6 micrograms. IQAir's World Air Quality Report analysed data from 7,812 air quality monitor stations and sensors, adding seven new African and four new Latin American countries to its covered area compared to its 2022 edition. The biggest share of PM2.5, which stands for ambient particular matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns, stems from human activity, according to a 2021 paper published in nature communications. Emissions from road transport and the energy sector are the biggest contributors to a higher concentration of PM2.5, while smaller-scale sources like agricultural waste burning can also be a factor, especially in so-called developing countries. Click here to read... [10]

The End of ESG? Experts Predict a Shift in Corporate Strategy

With President Trump once again taking the White House, one investment bank is advising ESG fund managers to "keep their lawyers very close", as the full-scale death of ESG may very well be on the doorstep, according to Yahoo Finance. Aniket Shah wrote in a note this week: “We’d encourage all ESG fund managers to have a lawyer on the team, or on speed-dial.” He continued: “Antitrust risk remains high for asset managers in ESG; there haven’t been any cases yet, thus there is no legal precedent. Further, legal risks regarding fiduciary duty will stay relevant as states enforce anti-ESG laws.” Yahoo reports that Trump's victory has already hit green sector stocks, with wind-energy companies among the hardest hit. Beyond potential bans and obstructive policies, the ESG sector faces rising legal risks. Key GOP figures argue ESG-focused firms neglect fiduciary duties, while Republican attorneys general accuse financial firms using ESG metrics of collusion against fossil fuels and fuelling inflation. In response, "greenhushing"—keeping ESG efforts quiet—is likely, Jefferies analysts note. Corporate CEOs are also expected to seek legal guidance to adapt to this shifting landscape. Jeffries said: “General counsels are in the ear of CEOs, frightened about legal retaliation to ESG initiatives. The backlash could lead to more focused and pragmatic companies, engaging in strategic discussions closely tied to their business model.” Click here to read... [11]

India Calls for Producers-Consumers Dialogue to Reduce Oil Market Volatility

The world’s third-largest crude oil importer, India, wants oil-producing countries and large oil-consuming nations to sit down and discuss the price of oil and how to stabilize it, Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told Reuters on Nov 04. India, which relies on crude imports to meet more than 80% of its oil consumption, has been seeking in recent years crude at bargain prices amid the high market volatility. Cheaper crude is the key reason why India has significantly boosted its purchase and imports of Russian oil, which is shunned and/or sanctioned in the West. In two years, Russia has become India’s single largest crude supplier, and its sales there are booming. Russia leads by a mile the second- and third-biggest suppliers, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. India and other large consumers need predictability and stability in oil prices, India’s oil minister Puri told Reuters today on the sidelines of the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi. “I'm hoping as a professional that all the players in this game will see a reason that... both producers and consumers can sit down together, have a discussion on what is a realistic price because it is not as if some production is taken off,” the minister told Reuters. Click here to read... [12]

Meta allows US military to use its AI

Meta will permit US government agencies and contractors working for the needs of national security to use its AI models for military purposes, the tech giant announced on Nov 04. The move is a departure from the company’s “acceptable use policy,” which states that its artificial intelligence models are forbidden from being employed in “military, warfare, nuclear industries.” Meta is “pleased to confirm” that it will share its AI models, named Llama, with federal agencies and defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and Booz Allen, as well as defense-oriented tech firms such as Palantir and Anduril, Nick Clegg, the company’s president of global affairs, said in a blog post. Large language models are able to “support many aspects of America’s safety and national security,” he wrote. “They can help to streamline complicated logistics and planning, track terrorist financing or strengthen our cyber defences.” “The responsible and ethical uses” of Llama for military purposes “will not only support the prosperity and security of the US, they will also help establish US open-source standards in the global race for AI leadership,” Clegg argued. “We believe it is in both America and the wider democratic world’s interest for American open-source models to excel and succeed over models from China and elsewhere,” he said. Click here to read... [13]

Japan’s declining births on track to fall below 700,000

The number of births of Japanese children in the first half of 2024 has continued its alarming downward trend, with only 329,998 babies born between January and June. If this pace continues, the country’s annual birth count will fall below 700,000 for the first time since 1947, when comparative statistics became available. On Nov. 5, the welfare ministry released preliminary population statistics, revealing a decrease of 22,242 births, a 6.3 percent drop, compared to the same period last year. In 2023, births had already fallen by 14,992 from the previous year, a 4.1 percent decline, indicating the ongoing struggle to reverse Japan’s shrinking population. The number of births first dipped below 1 million in 2016, and the trend has worsened with each passing year. In 2022, the figure dropped below 800,000 for the first time, further highlighting the country’s demographic challenges. Despite the series of measures the government has introduced over the years, there are no signs that these policies are proving effective in reversing the trend. Click here to read... [14]

Australia scraps Lockheed satellite as defense priorities clash

Australia has axed a multi-billion-dollar defense satellite project with U.S. contractor Lockheed Martin, dismaying Australia's space industry and highlighting budget tensions as the middle power pursues major military upgrades, including nuclear-powered submarines. The system, known as JP9102, would have been Australia's largest-ever space project, with a reported cost of 7 billion Australian dollars ($4.59 billion). The project included two or three military-grade satellites in geostationary orbit (GEO) supported by ground stations and other infrastructure. The Department of Defense cancelled the tender this week, saying that instead of a "single orbit" satellite system, it would prioritize a multi-orbit capability to "increase resilience." Defense Minister Richard Marles characterized the move as a "change of direction" that was "moving with the times" as anti-satellite weapons developed and new "faster and more cost effective" technologies emerged. Australia is modernizing its defense forces after a review last year identified a need for better integration to respond to "radically different" strategic circumstances as China builds up its military and the risk of conflict in the region increases. But funding challenges could complicate these efforts, experts say. Malcolm Davis, a senior defense analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said the project was the latest program sacrificed in the government's pursuit of AUKUS submarines and an expanded navy fleet while remaining under budget constraints, with defense spending increases set for later in the decade. Click here to read... [15]

Southeast Asia expands trade as a neutral hub in a divided world

Southeast Asia is rapidly expanding its global trade by pursuing diplomatic neutrality and engaging with various economies in conflict over political and economic issues. The region's external trade is projected to rise by $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2032, marking the largest increase globally. "Today, I offer our nation as the most neutral and nonaligned location," Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said at the Semicon Southeast Asia 2024 trade show in Kuala Lumpur on May 28, unveiling the country's business strategy. Malaysia is bolstering its economic ties with both the West and nations like China and Russia. In August, Anwar attended a ceremony hosted by Infineon Technologies, a prominent German semiconductor manufacturer, to mark the opening of its new plant in Malaysia. Just a month or two earlier, he held separate meetings with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to facilitate Malaysia's potential entry into the BRICS alliance, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and other nations. "Southeast Asia is poised to be the biggest winner in global trade over the next decade, even amid escalating confrontations between the U.S. and China," said Takeshi Konomi of Boston Consulting Group, which forecasts an increase of $1.2 trillion in combined external imports and exports of goods from 2022 to 2032. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

America’s Friends and Foes Brace for a New World Under Trump

Leaders of U.S. allies and adversaries on Nov 06 braced for quick shifts in American economic policy and the country’s approach to relations with the rest of the world as the scale of Donald Trump’s victory became clear. Trump, whose Republican party also regained control of the Senate, has pledged to increase import tariffs and cut support for allies that don’t spend adequately on defense. He has also said he would work for a rapid end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Global heads of state and government congratulated Trump on his win, which could jolt both U.S. friends and foes. For China, Trump’s return promises to ignite a new phase in a trade war that began during his first term of office at a time when broader relations between Washington and Beijing are strained. Trump on the campaign trail floated plans to impose tariffs of 60% on all Chinese imports, a significant increase from the more modest tariff increases on some Chinese goods that were a signature policy of his first term as president. In the Middle East, a second Trump administration is likely to go back to a “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran, as it did during Trump’s first term, according to people briefed on thinking within Trump’s circles. Click here to read... [17]

How the Democrats Lost It

American liberalism’s 10-year obsession with “Trump” is now proven to be a historic mistake. There is no parallel in U.S. politics for a political party and an overwhelmingly allied media allowing their attention to be diverted so overwhelmingly by the persona of one individual. Forget the first Trump presidential term. Or Jan. 6 and disproven election denial. Eventually, in 2021, Donald Trump went off to Mar-a-Lago to content himself with griping and golf. There were no Trump rallies. Then, all of a sudden, Democrats at the national, state and local level obtained indictments of the former president. Naturally, he reappeared to fight back. Pouring all their psychic energies into “Trump,” Democrats took their eyes off the American people the past four years. What a high price they are paying for that now. In the election’s final weeks, virtually all the opinion polls showed Mr. Trump and Kamala Harris in a statistical tie in the seven swing states. It was an admittedly striking result, and the question became: Are the polls “missing” something? Indeed they did. They missed the public’s loss of belief that the Democratic Party represents its interests. The normal habit of politics is to create policies and then sell them to voters as the best expression of their self-interest. Click here to read... [18]

Putin promises to promote ‘sovereign worldview’

President Vladimir Putin has sent a greeting message to participants at the ‘Inventing the Future’ international symposium that kicked off on Nov 04 at the ‘Russia’ national centre in Moscow. Representatives with different professional expertise and from across the generations have gathered “for a serious, thorough discussion about long-term, strategic plans, about how we see our future,” Putin said in his address, posted on the Kremlin website. “Despite the challenges we are facing today, we must set goals for ourselves that are ahead of time, outline new areas for breakthroughs, and strive to look beyond the horizon of tomorrow,” the Russian president said. “We must determine our future ourselves, based on a sovereign worldview, national culture, a tireless creative search, and a firm commitment to indisputable moral and patriotic ideals and values,” he stressed. The people of Russia have historically “created a great power, opened the way to the stars for humanity, ensured the country’s leadership in the peaceful use of the atom, and made grandiose scientific and geographical discoveries,” the Russian leader said. The forum will run for three days. Its program includes over 60 discussion sessions on the future of humanity, civilization, the multipolar world and technology. It is being presented as a “unique international platform” to discuss global challenges. Click here to read... [19]

German government collapses

Germany’s ‘traffic-light’ coalition has fallen apart, leaving Olaf Scholz at the helm of a minority government consisting solely of his Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens. This follows the chancellor’s dismissal of Free Democratic Party (FDP) leader Christian Lindner as finance minister. In response to Lindner’s dismissal, which came after failed crisis talks on Nov 06 night, the FDP’s parliamentary group leader, Christian Durr, announced that the party is withdrawing its ministers from Scholz’s government, formally ending the three-way coalition. The Greens expressed regret over the development but stated that they wish to remain part of a minority government, emphasizing the need for the EU – and Germany in particular – to demonstrate its capacity for action following Donald Trump’s election as US president. “I want to say for us that this feels wrong and not right tonight – almost tragic on a day like this, when Germany must show unity and the ability to act in Europe,” Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in a joint press statement with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Nov 06 night. “This is not a good day for Germany and also not a good day for Europe,” Baerbock added. Click here to read... [20]

‘Endless’ wars: What Israel’s political drama means for Gaza, Lebanon

Protests and violence in cities across Israel greeted the news that the country’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sacked Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Water cannons were hurled at protesters in Tel Aviv where crowds blocked traffic and lit fires, with similar unrest reported in Jerusalem, Haifa, Caesarea and other cities. Demonstrators called the prime minister a “traitor” and called for “democracy or revolution”. In a statement posted to his X account, Netanyahu cited a “crisis of trust” with Gallant that he claimed had “helped the enemy”. In a televised news conference, Gallant, infamous for likening Palestinians to “human animals”, attributed his dismissal to three factors, none connected to the issues of trust stated by the prime minister. Gallant said he was fired because of his wartime positions – that he supported extending enlistment to religious students, his calls for an official commission of inquiry into the security failings that resulted in the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and due to his backing of a ceasefire deal that would see the captives taken on that day returned. On this last issue, which has dominated Israeli media coverage of the war in Gaza, Gallant said, “There is and will not be any atonement for abandoning the captives.” “Gallant spoke very well,” said Jerusalem-based pollster and former political aide, Mitchell Barak. Click here to read... [21]

Indonesian leader Prabowo Subianto urged to join China in leading Global South

Chinese President Xi Jinping has said Indonesia should join Beijing in leading the Global South as the country’s new leader Prabowo Subianto visited the country this weekend. “As large developing countries and key members of the Global South, China and Indonesia should jointly promote Asian values centred on peace, cooperation, inclusiveness and integration,” Xi said. “[China and Indonesia should] lead the Global South in solidarity and self-improvement and promote the development of global governance in a more just and rational direction”. Prabowo, who was making his first trip abroad since being sworn in last month, said Indonesia was committed to a “non-aligned foreign policy” and did not want to “join any military alliance or coterie against third parties”. The leader of the world’s largest Muslim-majority country also thanked China for its position on the war in the Middle East, saying Beijing “upholds justice and righteousness”, according to state broadcaster CCTV. He also met Premier Li Qiang, and Zhao Leji, the country’s No.3 official, during his visit. Xi and Prabowo also vowed to further strengthen economic cooperation. Xi emphasised the digital economy, advanced manufacturing, and recycling as well as the Belt and Road Initiative, his transcontinental infrastructure project. He also said the two countries should cooperate on “infrastructure, energy and mining, medicine, agriculture, housing, joint development of the sea, food security, and poverty reduction”. Click here to read... [22]

Marcos Signs Laws on Philippine Sea Rights, Draws China Ire

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. enacted on Nov 08 two laws bolstering his nation’s maritime claims, drawing criticism from Beijing as South China Sea tensions persist. Marcos signed the Maritime Zones Act, which seeks to make the Philippines’ maritime rights well-defined by creating routes over its waters and airspace. “Our people, especially our fisherfolk, should be able to pursue their livelihood free from uncertainty and harassment. We must be able to harness mineral and energy resources in our seabed,” Marcos said, according to a statement from his communications office. The president also enacted the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act, which establishes a system through which foreign vessels and aircraft shall exercise the right of passage. China strongly condemns the enacting of the two laws, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Nov 08 at a regular press briefing in Beijing. “China will resolutely respond to any infringing and provocative actions taken by the Philippines in the South China Sea based on the law,” she said. The new legislations were signed as Manila and Beijing are locked in a dispute over South China Sea, where the two nations have competing claims. Their vessels have clashed in disputed waters in the past months, as Marcos asserted his nation’s claims. The laws will help the Philippines secure its rights in the South China Sea, National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said in a separate statement. Click here to read... [23]

Australia to Boost Payments to Retain Soldiers in the Military

The Australian government is planning to expand its payments to retain soldiers in the military as part of a strategy to boost overall defense personnel to around 100,000 by 2040. Defence Minister Richard Marles will announce a A$600 million ($396 million) package on Nov 05 to entice military personnel to stay in the armed forces once their initial service obligation has expired after four years, as well as further into their career. It is part of a broader strategy by the government to bolster the military in the face of poor personnel retention and tepid enrolments against the backdrop of a tight labour market with very low unemployment. According to the 2024 Defence Workforce Plan, which will be released on Nov 05, Australia will need to almost double annual recruitment of military personnel if it is to remain an effective fighting force, “from approximately 5,500 per annum to 9,000 per annum over the coming decade.” “In parallel, the median length of permanent ADF service must increase from around 7 years to around 12 years,” the plan says, according to excerpts provided in advance by Marles’ office. The announcement comes as Australia is working to reshape its military in preparation for the arrival of nuclear-powered Virginia class submarines in the early 2030s, under the Aukus agreement with the UK and the US. Click here to read... [24]

Pakistan Parliament Extends Armed Forces Chiefs’ Job Tenure

Pakistan’s parliament voted to extend the job tenures of the heads of the country’s armed forces to five years from three amid a spike in militant violence. Lawmakers from the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif voted in both houses of parliament — the National Assembly and the Senate — for amendments which also waived the retirement age and service limits for the three forces chiefs, according to approved drafts released by the assembly. The legislation came just a year before the scheduled retirement of Pakistan’s army chief General Asim Munir, who has also been involved in the country’s economic matters. Pakistan’s powerful military has ruled the nation for about half of its 72-year history and controls its security and foreign policies. In first nine months of this year, militant attacks increased by 47% to 717 and killed 834 people in Pakistan, according to data compiled by Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies. Click here to read... [25]

Saudi armed forces chief visits Iranian counterpart for rare meeting

Saudi Arabia’s top military official has visited Tehran for talks with Iranian officials in a rare high-level meeting since the countries restored ties last year, Iran’s state media reported, General Chief of Staff Fayyad al-Ruwaili of the Saudi armed forces met his Iranian counterpart, General Mohammad Bagheri, at the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Headquarters in Tehran on Nov 10, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported. “The development of defence diplomacy and the expansion of bilateral cooperation are among the main topics of this meeting,” it added. The country’s Fars news agency said that Bagheri called for increased security cooperation between the two countries at the meeting. “We would like the Saudi navy to join Iranian naval exercises next year, either as participants or observers,” Fars quoted Bagheri as saying. Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the phone, Iranian media said. Pezeshkian told the crown prince he would not be able to attend a summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Riyadh due to his busy schedule and would be dispatching the Iranian first vice president as a representative, the Mehr news agency said. Tohid Assadi, an Iranian affairs expert, told Al Jazeera that the meeting between the two-armed forces chiefs could be considered a step forward in Iran-Saudi relations. Click here to read... [26]

Qatar has suspended mediation efforts on Gaza, Foreign Ministry says

Qatar says it has suspended its mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel until the parties show “their willingness and seriousness” to end the war in Gaza. In a statement on X on Nov 09, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Majed al-Ansari said Qatar had informed the relevant parties 10 days ago of its intentions. Earlier on Nov 09, The Associated Press reported a diplomatic source as saying that Hamas’s political office in Qatar “no longer serves its purpose”. However, al-Ansari said that reports regarding the Hamas political office in Doha were inaccurate, “stating that the main goal of the office in Qatar is to be a channel of communication between the concerned parties”. A senior Hamas official said they were aware of Qatar’s decision to suspend mediation efforts, “but no one told us to leave”. In Washington, DC, a US official said that the administration of United States President Joe Biden had informed Qatar two weeks ago that the continued operation of the Hamas office in Doha was no longer useful and the Hamas delegation should be expelled. “After rejecting repeated proposals to release hostages, [Hamas] leaders should no longer be welcome in the capitals of any American partner. We made that clear to Qatar following Hamas’s rejection weeks ago of another hostage release proposal,” a US senior administration official said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Click here to read... [27]

Turkey, Greece top diplomats meet to help mend ties between regional rivals

Turkey’s top diplomat has agreed with his Greek counterpart in Athens to keep dialogue moving forward with the goal of resolving longstanding issues that have brought the two countries to the brink of war in the past. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan embraced Greece’s George Gerapetritis after they met on Nov 08 and released statements on outstanding issues. They both expressed willingness to work on understanding the other side better on “critical issues”. “We must seize the historic opportunity ahead of us and make the positive climate between our countries permanent. We should transform our eternal neighbour into an eternal friend,” Fidan said at a joint news conference with Gerapetritis. “I have no doubt that we can achieve this goal with a sincere and constructive approach,” he added. Greece and Turkey each claim an area in the Aegean Sea reaching 11km (about 7 miles) from their coastlines. Greece says it has a right to expand this area to 22km (14 miles) under United Nations rules, but Turkey warns that could lead to conflict. In the eastern Mediterranean, the dispute centres on exclusive economic zones, where oil and other resources can be drilled. Migrants and asylum seekers are also a major issue with the two countries working to manage them better together. Greece wants Turkey to clamp down more on smugglers. Click here to read... [28]

Calls for ‘Jew Hunt’ Preceded Attacks in Amsterdam

Israeli financial adviser Ofek Ziv had just emerged from the metro, heading to the Dutch capital’s central Dam Square with a group of Maccabi Tel Aviv soccer fans, when he says he was struck in the back of the head with a rock. A firecracker exploded near him. Men in ski masks later appeared, wielding knives and bats. The assailants, he said, “had fire in their eyes. They want to catch you.” Ziv and scores of other Maccabi supporters had traveled to the Dutch capital for a match with local team Ajax on Nov 07 night. Little did they know that, earlier in the day, they had become a topic of discussion on popular messaging apps, where users were calling for a Jodenjacht, or “Jew hunt.” From late Nov 07 and into the early hours of Nov 08, Dutch authorities said, mobs unleashed a wave of violence, chasing Israelis through the streets on motorbikes and beating them. The attacks came after videos circulated online of Maccabi fans pulling down a Palestinian flag and chanting about Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Police said 25 to 35 people were injured in Amsterdam. The campaign was organized, Dutch authorities said, and the attackers were equipped with fireworks and moved quickly, targeting Israeli fans with “hit-and-run” assaults. Police said they were investigating who instigated the assaults and how they were coordinated. Click here to read... [29]

With no majority in Lower House, Diet affairs now in disarray

Ruling and opposition parties agreed to convene a special Diet session on Nov. 11, but they failed to reach a consensus on anything else. The parties on Nov. 5 could not even settle on a date in the hung parliament for a vote to name the prime minister. The opposition bloc demanded a promise of substantive Diet debates first. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the Oct. 27 Lower House election. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told a meeting of the Lower House parliamentary groups on Nov. 5 that the special Diet session will open on Nov. 11. However, Yasukazu Hamada, an LDP lawmaker who chaired the meeting, told reporters that the opening date was the only thing that the participants agreed upon. While the coalition parties proposed a four-day session with a vote on the prime minister on Nov. 11, the opposition parties called for a longer session for comprehensive debates. Before the meeting, the Diet affairs chiefs of four opposition parties agreed to demand debates at the Budget Committee and the Deliberative Council on Political Ethics, the latter to discuss issues concerning the LDP’s fund-raising scandal. The four are the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), the Democratic Party for the People and the Japanese Communist Party. Click here to read... [30]

Dissanayake's bloc seen gaining control of Sri Lankan parliament

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake's National People's Power is expected to win control of Sri Lanka's parliament in the Nov. 14 election, completing a change of guard from an elite that has presided over the country's politics for decades. The NPP alliance is seen winning at least 113 of the 225 seats up for grabs from its current meager three, after registration for candidates closed in mid-October. The ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party, controlled by the Rajapaksa family that has dominated politics, is likely to fall to third or even fourth place. Before the dissolution of parliament, SLPP held 145 seats, while the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya coalition (SJB) controlled 54. At least 30 long-serving and once-popular SLPP legislators have opted out of the race this time, expecting to lose. "My guess is that the NPP might secure around 125 seats, which would constitute a comfortable majority," said Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political science professor at the University of Colombo. "Even if it is 125, it indicates a paradigm shift in Sri Lanka's party politics." The leftist antiestablishment Dissanayake won the presidential election in September with 42.3% of the vote. Sri Lankans ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July 2022 after the economy tipped into its worst crisis under his watch. Ranil Wickremesinghe, who had been appointed prime minister only two months earlier, took over as interim president. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Trump Will Create New Winners and Losers in Healthcare

For healthcare companies, Donald Trump’s victory means very different things depending on which part of the sector they operate in. For firms offering plans in the exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare), as well as Medicaid plans, it could be bad news. That explains why Oscar Health which derives most of its business from Obamacare marketplaces, was down 8% Nov 06 morning while Centene, a big Medicaid operator, was down 5%. But for businesses operating in Medicare Advantage, the privately run system that mainly serves seniors, a Republican victory is expected to provide major regulatory benefits. Under the Biden administration, insurers focused on Medicare Advantage have faced increased scrutiny from the federal government, such as lower annual rate increases. This came at a time when seniors drove up usage of the plans, leading to lower profitability. That helps explain why UnitedHealth Group, the leader in this group, was up 5%, while CVS, which today named a former UnitedHealth executive to lead its Aetna unit, surged 13%. Both have bet big on the growth of the Medicare Advantage market. Wall Street sees that as more likely under Trump, who is widely expected to replace Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, a staunch critic of megadeals. Click here to read... [32]

Nearly 380,000 people displaced by South Sudan floods, UN says

Flooding in South Sudan has displaced more than 379,000 people, according to a United Nations update that warned about a surge in malaria. Aid agencies have said the world’s youngest country, highly vulnerable to climate change, is in the grip of its worst flooding in decades, mainly in the north. The floods have affected about 1.4 million people, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said on Nov 08, across 43 counties and the disputed Abyei region, which is claimed by both South Sudan and Sudan. It added in a statement that more than 379,000 people were displaced in 22 counties and in Abyei. “A surge in malaria has been reported in Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria states – overwhelming the health system and exacerbating the situation and impact in flood-hit areas,” the UN agency said. Since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan has been plagued by chronic instability, violence and economic stagnation as well as climate disasters such as drought and floods. The World Bank said last month that the latest floods were “worsening an already critical humanitarian situation marked by severe food insecurity, economic decline, continued conflict, disease outbreaks, and the repercussions of the Sudan conflict“, which has seen several hundred thousand people pour into South Sudan. Click here to read... [33]