Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor(28 Oct- 03 Nov 2024)

Economic

China-EU trade war erupts as Beijing files WTO complaint over EV tariff hikes

A trade war between China and the European Union is set to intensify, with Beijing lodging a complaint with the World Trade Organization in response to an EU decision to raise tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Oct 30 that it “does not agree with or accept” the EU’s decision to proceed with extra duties on the EVs after the conclusion of an anti-subsidy probe that began last year. A final ruling published by the European Commission on Oct 29 stated that a top rate of 35.3 per cent would apply to EVs from Chinese state-owned company SAIC Motor and its subsidiaries, in addition to a baseline 10 per cent duty that applies to all EV imports. Major Chinese carmakers BYD and Geely were set to face extra duties of 17 per cent and 18.8 per cent respectively. The extra tariffs were to take effect as early as Oct 30 and would last for five years. “China will continue to take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies,” the ministry said after filing the complaint with the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism. The ministry said China advocated resolving trade conflicts through dialogue, adding that it was conducting a “new phase of consultations” with the European bloc. Click here to read... [2]

Drones become newest front in China-U.S. economic security fight

Tensions between the U.S. and China have spread to the drone industry, as American startup manufacturer Skydio -- which supplies Taiwan and Ukraine -- says its battery supply chain in China has been targeted by sanctions from Beijing. "Right now, we don't expect new [battery] sources to come online until the spring of next year," the company said in a statement released on Oct 30. It criticized the sanctions, saying "this action makes clear that the Chinese government will use supply chains as a weapon to advance their interests over ours." In June, the U.S. State Department approved the sale of $360 million in weapons to Taiwan, including attack drones. In September, it met with the island's government to strengthen cooperation, looking to reduce dependence on China in the drone procurement network. In response, China added several U.S. companies including Skydio to its sanctions list around mid-October. Skydio's only customer in Taiwan is the National Fire Agency, the company said. "This is an attempt to eliminate the leading American drone company and deepen the world's dependence on Chinese drone suppliers," the company said. Skydio also provides drones to the Ukrainian military. Washington also is cracking down on Chinese drone companies. Click here to read... [3]

VW demands 10% wage cuts to save jobs as profits plunge

Volkswagen asked its workers to take a 10-percent pay cut on Oct 30, arguing it was the only way that Europe's biggest carmaker could save jobs and remain competitive as profits plunged to a three-year low and union bosses threatened strikes. It was the first official confirmation of cost-cutting measures VW wants to implement to turn around its fortunes as high costs and weak demand in China dragged down sales and left its factories bloated from overcapacity. The company did not address directly the issue of whether it planned to close factories in Germany for the first time in Volkswagen's 87-year history, though labour representatives said that option remained on the table. VW's problems have fed wider anxieties about Germany's status as an industrial powerhouse and the competitiveness of European carmakers against encroaching global rivals. German automakers also fear the impact of a standoff between the European Union and Beijing, with EU tariffs of up to 45.3 percent on Chinese electric vehicles coming into force this week. "We urgently need a reduction in labour costs in order to maintain our competitiveness. This requires a contribution from the workforce," Arne Meiswinkel, the VW brand's personnel chief who leads negotiations for the carmaker, said. Click here to read... [4]

Productivity declining in most of EU – IMF

The EU economy is not growing as fast as it could be and productivity is a problem in every member country, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The director of the IMF's European Department, Alfred Kammer, shared its regional economic outlook for the bloc earlier this week. Expected GDP growth rate in the EU is predicted to be only 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2025, up from 0.6% a year earlier. Commenting on the report, Kammer pointed to three factors holding the EU back. “First, Europe’s [sic] markets are too fragmented to provide the needed scale for firms to grow. Second, Europe has no shortage of savings, but its capital markets fail to provide, to boost young and productive firms. In addition, Europe is missing skilled labour where it is needed,” he said. Kammer said removing the remaining barriers to the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labour would solve most of these issues. The IMF official also pointed to the 30% per capita income gap between the EU and the US, which he described as “stunning.” It “remains unchanged for two decades now,” he lamented. This is partly due to low productivity in the bloc's newest members in Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE). Click here to read... [5]

China hails mineral finds amid push for security of supply chain, energy and nation

China has reported “prominent results” in its hunt for green-energy minerals, with the Ministry of Natural Resources saying new deposits of the resources deemed crucial for national security had been discovered. Among those at the top of the list released by the ministry last week were gold, copper, molybdenum, phosphorite and fluorite – minerals important for clean energy, semiconductors, quantum and other industries key in the competition between Washington and Beijing for tech supremacy. “In the first three-quarters of this year, we made new significant discoveries of a batch of large-scale mines with verified deposits,” the ministry said. “It has significant meaning for our supply chain security, energy security and national security.” It said that more than 57 tonnes of gold, 3.8 million tonnes of copper and 137,000 tonnes of molybdenum reserves were found in the northeastern province of Heilongjiang. A total of 446 million tonnes of phosphorite reserves was detected in the southwestern provinces of Sichuan and Guizhou, while a combined 6.9 million tonnes of fluorite was found in Inner Mongolia in the north and Zhejiang in the east. The finds are part of a “mineral hunting” initiative launched in 2021 that aims for breakthroughs within 15 years in the search for crucial minerals that will determine the future of manufacturing, emerging technologies and the defence industry, as well as the geopolitical landscape. Click here to read... [6]

Pentagon unveils military-industrial strategy

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exposed “vulnerabilities” in global supply chains that require action by the Western military-industrial complex, the US Department of Defense has said. The industries of the US and its allies have struggled to meet Ukraine’s needs in weapons and ammunition and need to “become more agile and resilient,” the Pentagon argued in the implementation plan for the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS), released on Oct 29. “This implementation plan offers industry, global allies, and partners clear direction on the Department’s priorities for industrial capacity building,” Laura Taylor-Kale, assistant secretary for industrial base policy, told reporters in a briefing. According to Bill LaPlante, undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment, the implementation plan is intended to “serve as a guiding framework for resourcing decisions and investments in the coming years,” from informing budget priorities and determining the focus of research and development efforts, to driving the Pentagon’s “engagement with industry.” The plan outlines how to address shortfalls in critically important chemicals, casting and forgings, microelectronics, and the industrial base needed for hypersonic weapons, with an estimated $393.4 million in Defense Production Act funding. “There’s a real concern around supply chain vulnerabilities,” Taylor-Kale said, noting the presence of “adversarial sources in our supply chains” and sometimes having only one source of parts. Click here to read... [7]

BIS Debates Ending Project Eyed by Putin to Undermine Dollar

The Bank for International Settlements is debating whether to shut down a pilot cross-border payments platform after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin identified the underlying technology as a tool to circumvent sanctions and potentially undermine the dollar’s dominance in the global financial system. The mBridge project — which promises to allow sending money around the world without relying on US banks — was among topics discussed by central banks and finance chiefs at last week’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, according to people informed about the talks. Shutting it down was among the options, the people added, asking not to be named discussing confidential deliberations. Agustin Carstens, the BIS general manager whose term ends in June, said on Oct 26 at an event of the Group of 30 in the US capital that “we cannot directly support any project for the BRICS because we cannot operate with countries that are subject to sanctions — I want to be very clear about that.” The US has been increasingly using the dollar’s role as a key conduit of financial transactions worldwide to implement international sanctions, in particular after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Click here to read... [8]

Xi Jinping wants ‘high-quality jobs’ for China’s struggling youth

President Xi Jinping has called upon Chinese officials to find solutions for the country’s prolonged unemployment issues, with the growing number of jobless youths becoming a formidable challenge for Beijing. On Nov 01, the Communist Party theoretical journal Qiushi published an article featuring Xi’s speech from a Politburo study session earlier this year, where he called for “full, high-quality employment”, indicating that job creation remains a top priority. The 2,300-word article follows similar language from Xi in late May, where he urged government personnel to prioritise job creation for graduates and young people, particularly in roles that leverage their knowledge and strengths. “The unemployment rate may become a more important policy target,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “I think [the issue] makes it more likely the fiscal deficit will rise above 3 per cent next year.” The article shows unemployment is a matter of concern, he said, adding the government is likely to introduce policies to address it in the next year. In the article, Xi noted China’s development faces risks and “a rise in unpredictable factors,” making stability in the economy and the job market more urgent. He attributed the current state of employment to factors such as the declining birth rate, an ageing population and the transformative impact of the digital economy. Click here to read... [9]

More than one in three tree species at risk of extinction: Report

More than one in three species of trees are at risk of extinction worldwide, threatening life as we know it on Earth, according to a report published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. The report published on Oct 27 has warned that over 16,000 tree species are at risk of extinction. More than 47,000 species were assessed for the IUCN study, out of an estimated 58,000 species thought to exist in the world. According to the report, trees are felled for logging and to clear land for farming and human expansion. Climate change also poses an additional threat through worsening drought and wildfires. Over 5,000 of the species on the IUCN Red List are used for construction timber, and more than 2,000 species for medicines, food and fuels. Species at risk include the horse chestnut and ginkgo, both used for medical applications, the big leaf mahogany used in furniture making, as well as several ash, magnolia and eucalyptus species, said Emily Beech, head of conservation prioritisation at Botanic Gardens Conservation International (BGCI), which contributed to the tree assessment. Moreover, according to the IUCN report, the number of trees at risk is “more than double the number of all threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians combined”. Click here to read... [10]

Boeing gets rid of diversity department – Bloomberg

Boeing has reportedly dismantled its Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) department and the vice president in charge has resigned, as the struggling company moves forward with a major restructuring, Bloomberg reported on Oct 31. DEI refers to measures aimed at ensuring equal representation for people of every race, gender, or disability status. Boeing, whose workforce has historically been predominantly white and male, had previously pledged to hire more people from minority groups and increase overall Black employment by 20% before 2025. According to Bloomberg’s sources, the company’s diversity staff is now set to be reassigned to new positions. Sara Lian Bowen, one of Boeing’s vice presidents who led the DEI department, has also left the company. The dismantling of Boeing’s DEI team comes as major corporations across the US face scrutiny over what critics have described as “woke” discriminatory hiring practices directed against white men. Last month, anti-DEI activist Robby Starbuck, who has pressured Toyota and Harley-Davidson to scale back their diversity programs, said he had reached out to Boeing’s new CEO Kelly Ortberg, warning her he was considering an online campaign against the aircraft maker’s DEI initiatives. In response, Boeing maintained that it was committed to creating an “inclusive environment” while prohibiting discriminatory hiring practices and maintaining a “merit-based performance system” aimed at “equality of opportunity, not of outcomes.” Click here to read... [11]

Coal Remains on Its Throne Despite Transition Push

Report upon report sings praises to energy transition efforts that are leading to record wind and solar electricity generation. Outside the spotlight, however, things look very different. There, coal remains king—and this is not about to change anytime soon. Reuters recently reported that India’s coal power generation had fallen for the second month in a row in September thanks to higher solar output and lower electricity demand. Time for some solar praise, perhaps? Not really, because at the same time, India’s coking coal imports surged to a six-year high over the first half of the country’s latest fiscal year. Meanwhile, in neighbouring China, coal remains the largest contributor to the country’s power supply despite China being the largest developer of wind and solar capacity in the world—and by a wide margin. The latest domestic production figures point to an increase. The latest demand figures point to an increase in coal in response to growing demand. Coal accounts for 60% of China’s power generation, and this is not about to change soon. Both India and China have stated quite plainly that they will not be following the example of the UK and shutting down any coal power plants in the observable future. Both India and China have officially prioritized energy supply security and affordability over emissions, even as they both pursue a more diverse grid. Click here to read... [12]

Canada and Mexico Fear a More Protectionist America

Some $320 million of goods a day rumbles across the Ambassador Bridge connecting this industrial Canadian city to Detroit. It is so busy that, 2 miles downriver, another six-lane crossing is going up. The new span’s entire $4.5 billion cost is borne by Canada—a symbol of how much free trade means to this country, and what’s at stake in Oct 28’s presidential election for America’s closest neighbours. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump say they will look for more protections for America as they review the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the pact negotiated by the Trump administration that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement and has proved a boon for all three countries, economists say. Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on all goods coming into the U.S., in particular, has set businesses and governments on edge in both Canada and Mexico. “If the walls go up, we’re in trouble,” said Dave Cassidy, a former union leader who now advises the Ontario provincial government. Dave Cassidy, an adviser to the Ontario provincial government, is concerned about potential U.S. protectionist measures. As governments across the world revive trade protectionism, including the U.S., America’s neighbours in Canada and Mexico have doubled down on the free flow of goods across borders. Click here to read... [13]

Middle East growth prospects dim on war's lasting scars

The widening conflict in the Middle East is having broad economic repercussions, according to the International Monetary Fund, which downgraded its growth forecast for the region in a report released Oct 31. The organization now expects real gross domestic product in the Middle East and North Africa to grow 2.1% this year, down from 2.7% in April. The report cited factors including "increased geo-economic fragmentation" and "volatility in commodity prices." Growth is expected to recover to 4% in 2025. But Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, noted the forecast does not reflect recent developments in the region, and warned of potentially "material" downside risks from an escalation of the conflict. While the IMF did not provide an official forecast for the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza, Azour said Gaza's economy is projected to shrink about 83% this year, with the West Bank contracting roughly 30%. Many Palestinians in the West Bank had worked in Israel. Nearly all were barred from entering the country after the start of the conflict, leading to severe labor shortages in Israel and high unemployment among Palestinians. Flights into Tel Aviv have been filled to capacity with workers from South Asia, suggesting that Israel has turned to the region to fill the gap. That could hinder a recovery in Palestinian employment even after the war ends. Click here to read... [14]

Japan plans automated cargo transport system to relieve shortage of drivers and cut emissions

Japan is planning to build an automated cargo transport corridor between Tokyo and Osaka, dubbed a “conveyor belt road” by the government, to make up for a shortage of truck drivers. The amount of funding for the project is not yet set. But it's seen as one keyway to help the country cope with soaring deliveries. A computer graphics video made by the government shows big, wheeled boxes moving along a three-lane corridor, also called an “auto flow road,” in the middle of a big highway. A trial system is due to start test runs in 2027 or early 2028, aiming for full operations by the mid-2030s. “We need to be innovative with the way we approach roads,” said Yuri Endo, a senior deputy director overseeing the effort at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Apart from making up for a shrinking labour force and the need to reduce workloads for drivers, the system also will help cut carbon emissions, she said. “The key concept of the auto flow-road is to create dedicated spaces within the road network for logistics, utilizing a 24-hour automated and unmanned transportation system,” Endo said. The plan may sound like a solution that would only work in relatively low-crime, densely populated societies like Japan, not sprawling nations like the U.S. Click here to read... [15]

Mapping the Flow of Goods Through the Taiwan Strait

With China continuing to conduct military drills near Taiwan, as well as recently reaffirming that use of force will always remain an option to bring Taiwan under its control, concerns have grown over how potential Chinese actions in the region could impact global trade through the Taiwan Strait. Which Countries are Most Reliant on the Taiwan Strait? BRICS countries overall are more exposed to disruptions to trade routes in the Taiwan Strait, specifically China, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran. The latter two have 24% or more of its exports pass through the strait. China and Japan are the most reliant on the Taiwan Strait for both imports and exports, specifically imports. Almost a third of both countries’ imports pass through the Taiwan Strait. According to CSIS, over 95% of Japan’s crude oil comes from a select group of Middle Eastern countries, much of which is transported through the Taiwan Strait, making this route integral to Japan’s energy security. As for China, while CSIS estimates that 15% of its exports pass through this waterway—a relatively lower share than other countries—the total value of these exports is still over $551 billion. The Taiwan Strait is not only essential for China’s international trade but also plays a key role in its domestic commerce. More than half of the voyages through the strait connect the numerous ports along China’s eastern seaboard, according to CSIS. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

North Korea moves 8,000 troops to Ukraine border, U.S. says

The U.S. assesses that 8,000 North Korean troops are now in the Russian region of Kursk, on the border with Ukraine, and may engage in combat in the coming days, senior officials said Oct 31. Speaking to reporters after a two-plus-two meeting of foreign affairs and defense ministers with South Korea, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, "There are some 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia and the most recent information indicates that as many as 8,000 of those North Korean forces have been deployed to the Kursk region." While the U.S. has not seen these troops deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces, "We would expect that to happen in the coming days," he said. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, "Our assessment is that Putin's forces have trained these North Korean soldiers in artillery operations, UAV operations and basic infantry operations, including trench clearing." "The Kremlin has also provided these DPRK troops with Russian uniforms and equipment," he added, using the acronym for North Korea's formal name. Austin said all of this "strongly indicates" that Russia intends to use these foreign forces in frontline operations. "Make no mistake," Austin added, "if these North Korean troops engage in combat or combat support operations against Ukraine, they would make themselves legitimate military partners." Click here to read... [17]

U.S. defense industry strategy stumbles into Japan's political uncertainty

The U.S. Defense Department's ambition to use allied factories and shipyards to supplement an overstretched American industrial base in countering China has hit a stumbling block as Japan enters a period of political uncertainty following Oct 27's general election. On Oct 28, the Pentagon released the first of what is intended to be annual implementation plans for the National Defense Industrial Strategy, highlighting the need to address key challenges to the U.S. defense industrial base and warning of the risks of inaction. One of the six remedies listed was industrial collaboration with allies and partners. "Now more than ever, the United States and her allies and partners must work together to spur more dynamic production and capabilities and build a modernized defense industrial ecosystem that can surge, when necessary," the document states. Plans include the co-development and coproduction of weapons, as well as conducting maintenance, repairs, overhauls and upgrades on U.S. naval ships at allied shipyards. With Japan, the U.S. is in talks with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to expand licensed production of Patriot air defense missiles and is coordinating with Mitsubishi Electric to begin production of advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, known as AMRAAM. But even as the document was released, the top U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific was entering a political situation that few in Washington had anticipated. Click here to read... [18]

What might come next in Japan’s politics after LDP election setback

The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the Lower House for the first time in 15 years, throwing control of the chamber into uncertainty. With the more powerful Diet chamber almost equally divided between the ruling and opposition blocs, three scenarios look likely. First, the ruling coalition may opt to forge a “partial alliance” with one or more opposition parties, depending on policy issues, such as budget proposals, bills and draft treaties. In the Oct. 27 Lower House election, the LDP gained 191 seats and Komeito won 24 seats. The combined strength of 215 seats falls 18 seats short of a 233-seat majority. Prospective alliance partners include Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), which seized 38 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People, which garnered 28 seats. DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki has said the party is prepared to cooperate with any political party on issues they can agree on. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is the LDP president, also appears eager to negotiate with opposition parties on policy issues. “We want to proactively incorporate (opposition parties’) policies where we are lacking or where we should make changes,” Ishiba told a news conference on Oct. 28. History shows that the LDP could resort to more unorthodox tactics to secure a majority. Click here to read... [19]

India to Slap Penalties on GE Over Fighter Jet Engines Delay

The Indian government will impose penalties on General Electric Co. for severe delays in the delivery of jet engines that power the country’s light-combat aircraft, according to an official with knowledge of the matter. Delivery of the F404 engines for Indian Air Force’s locally-made Tejas Light Combat Aircraft Mk1 series was pushed back to March 2025, the official said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The supply of the engines were supposed to start by 2023, according to India’s state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., which signed a $716 million deal with GE in 2021 for 99 F404 engines. The delay complicates Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plans to manufacture fighter jets at home at a time when the country’s relations with its neighbours China and Pakistan remain tense. It also comes amid attempts by the US and India to build closer military ties. Just last year, GE had signed a memorandum of understanding with Hindustan Aeronautics to produce an advanced version of the jet engines for India’s next generation light-combat aircraft. India’s Defense Ministry and Hindustan Aeronautics declined to comment when contacted for further information. GE Aerospace said Oct 28 the industry “continues to experience unprecedented supply chain pressures” and the company is working to resolve constraints, according to an emailed response to questions. Click here to read... [20]

Bangladesh targets ex-PM Hasina's Awami League ahead of polls

Bangladesh's caretaker government is moving to block deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League from elections eyed for next year, in its boldest move yet to scrap remnants of her iron-fisted regime. The unprecedented plan comes as a political vacuum gives sidelined Islamist parties a new lease on life, raising eyebrows in the U.S. and India, where Hasina took refuge after a violent uprising ended her 15-year rule in August. Last week, the interim government led by Nobel laureate and microcredit pioneer Muhammad Yunus banned the student wing of Hasina's party, the Bangladesh Chhatra League. It described the influential group as a "terrorist organization" whose members took part in attacking and killing anti-government protesters during this summer's clashes, which saw more than 700 killed and many more injured. Days earlier, Yunus's right-hand man Mahfuj Alam vowed that the government would block the Awami League and its allies from contesting polls tentatively set for the end of 2025. "Those who participated in the last three elections and entered parliament through deception have misled the public, and the interim government will certainly hinder their political involvement," Alam told reporters, in an apparent reference to voting fraud that hung over Hasina's successive victories. Click here to read... [21]

Myanmar junta chief to visit China for first time since coup

Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing will travel to China this week to attend regional summits, state media said on Nov 04, in the embattled top general's first visit to the influential neighbouring nation since he seized power in a 2021 coup. Since the coup, Myanmar has been in chaos, including areas along its border with China, as an armed resistance movement combined with established ethnic minority militias to wrest control of large territories from the military government. Min Aung Hlaing will attend summits of the Greater Mekong Subregion and the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Co-operation Strategy (ACMECS) and join a meeting with Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam on Nov. 6-7 in Kunming, MRTV said. "He will have meetings and discussions with authorities from China and will work on enhancing the bilateral relationship, economic and development in several sectors," it said, referring to the junta chief. The Myanmar military's deterioration, in the face of rapid gains by anti-junta fighters since a surprise offensive last October, has alarmed China, which has sealed parts of the border and halted key imports to rebel-controlled areas, Reuters has reported. China has strategic economic interests in Myanmar, including major oil and gas pipelines crossing the country and a planned deep-sea port in the Bay of Bengal. Click here to read... [22]

South Korea and EU worry about Russia's technology transfer in return for North Korea troops

South Korea and the European Union on Nov 04 strongly condemned North Korea’s reported dispatch of troops to aid Russia’s war against Ukraine and expressed concerns that Russia could reward North Korea with transfers of sensitive technology to enhance its nuclear and missile programs. North Korea’s troop deployment, confirmed by the U.S. and NATO, threatens to expand the almost 3-year-long war and is causing security jitters in South Korea and elsewhere about what Russia could give North Korea in return. After a meeting in Seoul, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell issued a joint statement condemning in the “strongest possible terms” North Korea’s deployment and voicing worries about Russia's possible provision of materials and technology to North Korea in support of its military objectives. “We are also deeply concerned about the possibility for any transfer of nuclear- or ballistic missile-related technology to the DPRK, which would jeopardize the international non-proliferation efforts and threaten peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and across the globe,” the statement said. DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name. Cho and Borrell called North Korea's deployment a “flagrant” violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and called on North Korea and Russia to immediately withdraw the troops from Russia. Click here to read... [23]

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks Gain Momentum After BRICS Summit

Following months of stalled negotiations, the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process is moving again. Despite the newfound optimism that a deal is close, both sides have given no indication of how they intend to settle major differences. Following a brief meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan instructed their respective foreign ministers to fast-track negotiations on an “Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations.” The most recent round of discussions focused on the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border; both countries still control territories claimed by the other. Despite continuing disagreement on border delimitation, along with the apparent suspension of talks on the opening of road and rail links, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated in Kazan that up 90 percent of the terms of a peace agreement have been finalized. He urged Azerbaijan to sign the peace agreement “as is,” and work out the outstanding details at a later date. Aliyev up to this point has been reluctant to leave any issue for future negotiations, in particular a demand that Armenia amend its constitution to unequivocally recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijani forces reconquered in 2023. But the Azerbaijani leader may have changed his mind, as following his talks with Pashinyan in Kazan, he assented to the two countries’ foreign ministers working to finalize the text of the agreement. Click here to read... [24]

Avoiding All-Out War: The Calculus Behind Israel's Attack

Israel on October 26 struck military targets deep inside Iranian territory, but the extent of its promised attack was more calibrated than many feared. The region has been on edge since October 1, after Israel promised that Iran "will pay" for launching its largest-ever direct attack -- almost 200 ballistic missiles in all -- on its archfoe. The main concern was whether Israel would strike Iranian nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure, each carrying its own risks. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL that if the scale and scope of Israel's attack remained restricted, "an off-ramp has been provided for both sides to step back from the brink." Since the early hours of October 26, when Iranian state television acknowledged loud explosions had been heard around Tehran, news outlets and Telegram accounts that support the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) sought to downplay the significance of the attack. Some pro-IRGC channels on Telegram went as far as alleging that Israeli media were critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for launching a "disappointing" attack on Iran. Why The Measured Response? Israel had been under pressure for weeks from its ally the United States and Persian Gulf Arab states to formulate its response in a way that would not plunge the region into an all-out war. Click here to read... [25]

US sends nuclear-capable bombers to the Middle East

The US military is set to deploy additional forces to the Middle East, including a number of nuclear-capable B-52H strategic bombers, the Pentagon has announced. The deployment was reportedly ordered by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to compensate for the scheduled departure of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group from the region, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder has said in a statement. Apart from “several” B-52H bombers, the assets include “additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft,” he said on Friday. The forces are scheduled to arrive “in the coming months,” Ryder added without giving any exact timeframe. The upcoming deployment is supposed to show Washington’s commitment to “the defense of Israel,” as well as to “de-escalation through deterrence and diplomacy.” The Pentagon explicitly stated that the move, as well as its “recent decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system to Israel,” was aimed at Tehran. “Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people,” the spokesman stressed. The announcement comes as tensions continue to soar in the Middle East, with Iran and Israel remaining locked in a spiral of violence. Click here to read... [26]

World now has three superpowers – ex-top US general

The unipolar era when the US was the only dominant superpower has given way to a multipolar world, retired US General Mark Milley admitted on Oct 28 at a meeting of the American Bankers Association in New York. The former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, who served under both presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden, said that there were now three superpowers in the world: the US, Russia and China. “During the Cold War there were two [superpowers], immediately following the Cold War there was a unipolar moment, so for a short time the US clearly was preeminent and the only real superpower out there,” according to Milley. “But today, it is clear that we are in a multipolar world,” Milley said. He also stated that US leaders should pay especially close attention to Beijing, given China’s rate of growth and ambitions to develop militarily. “They are probably the one country who has the legs and the distance that could literally challenge the US position on a global scale,” the retired general said. Milley added that Russia also remains an “acute threat,” given that it has “a lot of nuclear weapons” and is engaged in “the biggest ground war in Europe since 1945.” He believes the world has become “a lot more complicated” and stressed that in light of these challenges the US must make efforts to maintain the so-called “rules-based order.” Click here to read... [27]

Japan and EU announce new defense pact

Japan and the European Union announced a sweeping new security and defense partnership in Tokyo on Nov 01, which EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell hailed as a historic and "very timely" step. Borrell and his Japanese counterpart Takeshi Iwaya unveiled the pact to develop cooperation on joint military drills, the exchange of information related to the defence industry, and space security among other matters. "I am extremely pleased to be here with Minister Iwaya to announce the conclusion of this security and defence partnership between the European Union and Japan," Borrell said. He called it the "the first agreement of this nature" the EU has made with an Asia-Pacific country, describing it as "historical and very timely." "We live in a very dangerous world" and "given the situation in both of our regions, this political framework deepens our ability to tackle emerging threats together," Borrell told reporters. He did not mention China, but Japan has previously called its neighbour its greatest security challenge as Beijing builds up military capacity in the region. After the Tokyo talks, Borrell heads to South Korea, where concerns about North Korea will top the agenda. The United States has said thousands of North Korean troops are in Russia readying to fight in Ukraine. Pyongyang also test-fired one of its newest and most powerful missiles on Oct 31, demonstrating its threat to the U.S. mainland days ahead of elections. Click here to read... [28]

The US pivot to Africa is not working

In the coming decades, few regions will be as important to the world’s economy as Sub-Saharan Africa. Stretching from the deserts of the Sahel to the shores of the Cape it encompasses the majority of African countries. The soil of countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali holds an abundance of natural resources, including lithium, cobalt, gold, titanium and uranium – all critical to the production of next-generation batteries and the operation of small nuclear reactors that will decide the technological arms’ race in artificial intelligence. This nearly unparalleled wealth in critical materials is the reason why Russia has been aggressively pushing into the region, using both private military companies such as the notorious Wagner Group and state-owned companies including the Russian nuclear energy corporation Rosatom, which is expanding its footprint across the continent by becoming a partner to multiple African governments in their drive for energy diversification. In its quest for greater influence across the continent, Russia is steadily dislodging France, a traditional security partner of many African nations. Yet France’s loss in influence has also opened up worrying opportunities for Iran. Tehran is currently trying to purchase 1800 tons of uranium yellow cake from Niger that could significantly contribute to its nuclear program. Click here to read... [29]

North Korea Fires ICBM With Longest-Ever Flight Time

The US and South Korea conducted joint air drills in a show of force after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile that flew longer than any previous one tested by Kim Jong Un’s regime, adding to the tensions over its dispatch of troops to Russia. Hours after North Korea’s missile launch, South Korea’s defense ministry said it conducted joint air drills with the US that involved some 110 military planes, including American fighter jets such as the F-35B, and the MQ-9 military drone. The US also criticized the launch for needlessly raising tensions, adding that it didn’t pose an immediate threat to American personnel, territory or its allies. “We don’t see any indication at this point that there was Russian involvement” in the North Korean missile launch, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Oct 31 in Washington. The US and its allies will continue to analyse the launch, he said, calling on North Korea “to cease and desist.” The missile was fired at a lofted angle from an area near the capital Pyongyang early Oct 31, flying some 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) into waters off its east coast, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said. It was in the air for some 86 minutes, the longest flight recorded for a missile fired by North Korea, Japanese Minister of Defense Gen Nakatani told reporters. Click here to read... [30]

EU Must Boost Intelligence Ties to Counter Threats, Report Says

The European Union should work with member states’ spy agencies to create a bloc-level platform for cooperation, according to a recommendation that dialled back initial plans for an EU intelligence service. The report, requested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, aims to better synthesize intelligence from 27-member state governments with a “fully fledged EU service for intelligence cooperation” as it lays out a raft of threats to the region. A previous draft of the recommendation had sketched out a new agency capable of gathering intelligence on threats to the EU as a whole from outside the bloc’s borders, according to people familiar with the report. But that plan remained controversial and met with resistance from member states, the people said on condition of anonymity. “It’s in the interest of all of us that we protect each other, and we stand up for each other in the European Union,” von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels as she laid out the report authored by former Finnish President Sauli Niinisto. Niinisto was tasked by the commission with formulating recommendations on how to improve the bloc’s readiness to confront a range of possible threats. The report is a part of the bloc’s effort to boost its defense and security readiness amid growing a set of risks, including increasing Russian aggression, China’s assertive rise on the global stage and spillover from conflicts in the Middle East. Click here to read... [31]

Chinese navy holds first dual aircraft carrier drills in South China Sea

The Chinese navy’s two active aircraft carriers – the Liaoning and the Shandong – have completed their first dual carrier exercises in the South China Sea, state broadcaster CCTV reported on Oct 31. The report did not give details of the drills, but it included footage showing multiple J-15 fighter jets taking off from the Liaoning, with at least a dozen of the warplanes taking part in live combat drills. The two aircraft carriers were also shown sailing side by side. Military commentator and former PLA instructor Song Zhongping said the dual carrier formation offered a significant “force multiplier effect”. He said the strength of aircraft carriers was mainly to do with the number of aircraft, adding that the combined air power and strike force of the Liaoning and Shandong exceeded that of some small or medium militaries. Song noted that the two carrier groups also had different early warning systems and supporting destroyers and frigates that gave them different air defence, anti-submarine and anti-ship capabilities. “It’s not merely a case of one plus one is greater than two; it’s far greater than that,” Song said, adding that the two aircraft carriers would be more effective by operating together. The CCTV report said the Liaoning group had been operating in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea before returning to its home port of Qingdao on China’s east coast. Click here to read... [32]

Health

Africa CDC warns mpox is not under control, appeals for resources

The African Union’s health watchdog has warned that the mpox outbreak was still not under control and appealed for resources to avoid a “more severe” pandemic than COVID-19. “The situation is not yet under control, we are still on the upward trend generally,” Ngashi Ngongo from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) told a briefing on Oct 31. More than 1,100 people have died of mpox in Africa, where some 48,000 cases have been recorded since January, according to the CDC. Cases were still increasing in several countries as the continent struggled to contain another major outbreak coming on the heels of COVID-19 that exposed weaknesses in Africa’s health system.So far, 19 countries in Africa have reported cases of mpox after an infection was detected in Mauritius, popular with tourists attracted to its stunning white beaches and crystal-clear waters. Yet the funds to contain the outbreak were in short supply, Africa CDC warned. “What we need is the continuous political and financial mobilisation,” Ngongo said, adding that this was a necessary measure to stop mpox from being another pandemic “which would be much more severe than COVID-19”. Mpox, previously known as monkeypox, is caused by a virus transmitted to humans by infected animals but can also be passed from human to human through close physical contact. Click here to read... [33]

Why could a silent asthma epidemic be sweeping Africa?

Millions of adolescents across Africa may unknowingly be battling asthma because they have not received a diagnosis from a clinician and, therefore, are not receiving the necessary treatments, a new study has found. Published last week in the research journal The Lancet, the study’s findings are critical for a continent that has produced little data about the scale of asthma despite the condition being one of the most common causes of chronic respiratory deaths on the continent. Asthma, which affects the lungs and causes difficulties in breathing, often starts in childhood or adolescence. It is a condition that affects many adolescents worldwide with an estimated 76 million young adults suffering from it in 2019, according to the National Library of Medicine, part of the United States government. There is no outright cure for asthma that develops in childhood, but treatment can relieve symptoms, which often continue well into adulthood, according to scientists. Here is what we know about why a silent asthma epidemic could be harming children in some African countries: What did the study find? A team of researchers led by investigators at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) discovered that 12 percent of adolescents in six African countries had severe asthma symptoms but the vast majority of them – 80 percent – had not been diagnosed by a health expert. Click here to read... [34]