Second Minsk Conference on Eurasian Security: Some Major Takeaways

The II Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security, hosted by Belarus from October 31 to November 1, is believed to have highlighted the shifting stance within Eurasia towards a more multipolar world, with an increasing emphasis on autonomy from Western influence. However, this perspective is somewhat one-sided, as not all countries in Eurasia are inclined to distance themselves from the West or to join the anti-Western bloc led by Russia and China.

Initiated last year, this conference aimed to form an anti-Western bloc focussed on issues concerning Eastern Europe within the broader Eurasian context. The Ukraine conflict has fuelled anti-Russian sentiments in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. Armenia, which used to be close to Russia, is now moving closer to the West after Russia’s alleged role in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Recently, Georgia had a parliamentary election, and the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party won its fourth term in office. Pronouncing the elections as rigged, widescale protests have started and are continuing to create an unstable political situation in the Russian neighbourhood. In contrast, Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu has secured a second term in a crucial presidential runoff against a candidate who is friendly towards Russia. This election was marred by allegations of Russian meddling, voter fraud, and intimidation in the country aspiring to join the European Union.^[1]

Against this background, Second Minsk conference aimed to address these issues and promote a broader dialogue on related topics, such as energy dependency, weaponisation of sanctions, collective security, and the potential for a new alignment among Eurasian countries. Key participants at the conference included Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov, Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui, and Syria's Foreign and Expatriates Minister Bassam Sabbagh. Despite significant participation, there was a noticeable absence of high-level representation from the Eurasian region, including Central Asia and South Asia.

Due to the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensified global sanctions and turbulence in energy markets have put Eurasia under the spotlight. As Eurasian nations navigate these issues, there is a rising recognition that over-dependence on Western institutions could hinder their strategic options. The leaders and officials who assembled in Minsk articulated a desire for increased regional autonomy and the development of a Eurasian framework less reliant on Western powers, particularly in the energy and financial sectors.

The Minsk conference also highlighted Eurasian countries' concerns over being caught in the geopolitical struggle between Western nations and Russia. With sanctions and economic restrictions affecting multiple nations in the region, many Eurasian leaders view the current global order as restrictive. Their focus was on finding collaborative solutions to regional challenges without exacerbating tensions.

Major Takeaways

The 2nd Minsk Summit underscored a significant shift among Eurasian nations toward seeking greater autonomy from Western influence and advocating for a multipolar world order. Hungary's critique of the European Union's energy policies, particularly the perceived double standards in Russian energy imports, highlights a growing discontent with Western sanctions that disproportionately affect smaller economies. Hungary’s presence and vocal criticism also illustrated the complex relationship between some EU nations and the broader European bloc. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s comments highlighted Hungary’s frustration with what he perceives as double standards within the EU. He pointed out that while the EU promotes sanctions and reduced energy dependency on Russia, several EU nations continue their own imports of Russian gas without penalty.

Hungary’s position is symbolic of a broader Eurasian perspective that values pragmatic policies over ideological ones. Szijjártó’s remarks stressed the risks of a polarised global order and warned of the dangers of a divided world. He advocated for policies recognising the complex interdependencies in energy and trade rather than policies promoting a one-size-fits-all solution. Notably, Hungary has been attempting to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in recent times. In July this year, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán talked with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow about the potential peace agreement. This has strained the European Union's relations with Hungary. EU nations have criticised Orbán for trying to appease Putin, asserting that Hungary does not represent the EU.^[2]

The weaponisation of sanctions took centre stage at the conference. Belarusian President Lukashenko, in his speech, criticised the West for imposing illegal sanctions. He stated, “Half the world is under illegal sanctions. Illegitimate restrictions have paralysed entire sectors of the economy. The right to private property has been destroyed. Yet the collective West has taught us what private property is for decades. So where is it?”.^[3] Lukashenko also criticised the rampant seizure of state assets and the blatant theft of sovereign financial resources, arguing that such actions undermine national sovereignty. He highlighted the destruction of gas pipelines and maritime blockades as serious threats, stating that relying on Western brands no longer guarantees technological safety. The risk of being cut off from crucial spare parts and services poses a significant danger, a situation Belarus and Russia have already experienced, reflecting a broader crisis of trust in international economic relations.^[4] Raising concerns over the US nuclear arsenal in Europe, President Lukashenko stated that the US should remove nuclear weapons from Eurasian nations to create conditions for dialogue.

A strong desire for increased regional cooperation and economic self-sufficiency, aiming to build resilient systems that allow Eurasian countries to operate independently of Western markets and policies, was voiced at the conference. This sentiment was reinforced by calls for dialogue over confrontation, with leaders advocating for open discussions to resolve disputes rather than imposing punitive measures. The summit's emphasis on unity reflects a broader Eurasian perspective that prioritises pragmatic solutions to energy and security challenges.

Emphasising multipolarity, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the primary trend in today’s world is the formation of a multipolar world order. This irreversible process reflects objective changes in the global balance of power, economic growth, and the increasing influence of new, non-Western centres. Lavrov emphasised that this trend encourages the democratisation of international relations, where no single country should dominate, and the principles of the UN Charter should be upheld in a comprehensive, rather than selective, manner. Reflecting the sentiments of the Belarusian presidents on Eurasian security, Lavrov also noted that Russia's perspective on Eurasian security aligns with the Global Security Initiative (GSI).^[5]

Lavrov also indicated that negotiations for a treaty on a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with Iran could take place soon. He described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's peace proposal as a "dead end," calling it "stupid," while labelling his strategy for victory as "schizophrenic." Regarding claims about North Korean troops being present in Russia, he asserted that no North Koreans had been seen on the front lines in Ukraine and accused Western nations of "inflating this fact," which could potentially lead to an escalation.

The influence of China and Russia was a recurrent theme, with both countries positioning themselves as advocates for regional solidarity against Western pressures. This strategic alignment signifies a potential realignment of global power dynamics as Eurasian nations explore new alliances and frameworks for cooperation. The discussions suggest a commitment to redefining relationships that diminishes Western dominance and fosters a more balanced international landscape.

Conclusion

The 2nd Minsk Summit serves as a crucial platform for the countries of Eurasia to engage in dialogue and discuss issues of mutual concern. These nations aim to establish a self-sustaining framework to enhance their economic prosperity and improve their security amid a changing world order. However, this platform should not be hijacked by any country with vested interests looking just to criticize the West. The primary purpose of the conference should be to find solutions to the rising political, economic, and security challenges in the Eurasian region.

The Second edition of the Minsk conference comes at a time when the potential emergence of a multipolar world is on the horizon—one characterized by increased autonomy and deeper collaboration among regional powers. Such a shift carries profound implications for global governance and the dynamics of international relations. It signifies a growing confidence among Eurasian leaders, empowering them to take control of their destinies as they navigate the intricacies of an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape. Through their collective efforts and utilizing the opportunities provided by a platform like this, Eurasian countries should assert their influence and reshape the future for themselves and the broader global community.

References

^[1] ‘Moldova’s pro-Western president wins 2nd term in runoff overshadowed by Russian meddling claims, CNN, November 3, 2024. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/03/europe/moldova-election-sandu-russia-intl-latam/index.html [3]
^[2] Vladimir Soldatkin and Anita Komuves, ‘Hungary's Orban talks Ukraine peace with Putin, stirring EU outcry’, Reuters, July 5, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-says-no-position-negotiate-between-ukraine-russia-2024-07-05/ [4]
^[3] ‘Alexander Lukashenko tells what can help ease tensions in the world’ News, By. November 02, 2024. https://news.by/eng/news/obshchestvo/alexander-lukashenko-tells-what-can-help-ease-tensions-in-the-world [5]
^[4] Ibid.
^[5] ‘Minsk conference focuses on Eurasian security, world multipolarity’ (Xinhua) November 01, 2024. http://en.people.cn/n3/2024/1101/c90000-20236535.html [6]

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