Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor(21-27 October 2024)

Economic

China Sets Date for Key Meeting at Center of Market’s Stimulus Hopes

China’s top lawmakers are set to meet early next month, a highly anticipated meeting markets view as a key window to announce more stimulus to boost the economy. The Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress said Oct 25 that it will meet from Nov. 4 to Nov. 8, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency. The NPC, the country’s top legislative body, has the power to approve the sort of fiscal stimulus that analysts say is key to revving up economic growth, and markets have been anxiously awaiting news of when it will meet. Xinhua made no mention of fiscal stimulus on Oct 25, saying only that lawmakers would review a basket of bills and reports from various government agencies. It remains unclear whether the State Council, China’s cabinet, will submit a fiscal package to the NPC for approval. Investors and economists expect the law-making body to approve a sizable multi-billion-dollar fiscal expansion plan by year’s end after China’s finance minister hinted at room for the central government to issue more sovereign bonds earlier this month. But estimates about the size of the fiscal boost vary and there is a high degree of uncertainty around exact measures and implementation plans. The finance minister, Lan Fo’an, told reporters there is a “fairly large” amount of room to boost spending. Click here to read... [2]

China eyes ‘top-tier industrial workforce’ by 2035, vows hi-tech training, talent support

China aims to boost training, support and “ideological guidance” for its industrial workforce, to create a highly skilled talent pool as the country doubles down on hi-tech development. The goals were laid down in a set of guidelines issued jointly by the Communist Party Central Committee, the core leadership body of the ruling party, and the State Council – China’s cabinet. According to the guidelines, the country will focus on training to drive the development of “a top-tier industrial technical workforce” and provide talent and skill support for “Chinese-style modernisation”. The industrial workforce is “the backbone of creating social wealth and a key force in implementing innovation-driven development strategies and accelerating the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse”, the document released on Oct 21 but dated October 12 said. It also called for efforts to “unite and guide industrial workers to play a leading role in the construction of Chinese-style modernisation”. Main goals listed included “solidifying ideological and political guidance” for the workforce and improving its overall quality “with an ever-expanding team of knowledgeable, skilled, and innovative industrial workers”. The country also aims to produce around 62,000 “master artisans” by 2035, including 2,000 defined as “national-level craftsmen”, according to state news agency Xinhua’s report on the guidelines. Click here to read... [3]

Washington yawns as interest payments surpass military spending

In Greek mythology, the princess Cassandra warned her fellow Trojans that the wooden horse outside the gate of Troy was packed with Greek warriors. No one believed her. The Trojans brought the horse into the city. Catastrophe ensued. The federal government’s ballooning debt has had many Cassandras. For years they’ve been predicting that the debt’s continued growth will lead to disaster. Apparently, no one in Washington believes them. Congress keeps passing deficit budgets that add to the debt. It doesn’t matter which party controls Congress; both yawn when the Cassandras issue their warnings. In the just-ended fiscal year, the federal government – Republicans in control of the House, Democrats the Senate – spent $1.83 trillion more than it took in. That brought Uncle Sam’s cumulative debt to around $35 trillion. If the nation had a gross domestic product in the neighbourhood of $75 trillion, or even $50 trillion, the lips of the Debt Cassandras would be sealed. An economy that size would generate more than enough taxes for the government to make its interest payments and maybe even pay down the principal. Many experts say a government-debt-to-GDP ratio above 60% begins to raise red flags. Others say 77%. Uncle Sam’s ratio is above 130%. Even excluding debt that one part of the government owes another – in other words, just counting debt held by the public – the ratio is almost 100%. Click here to read... [4]

China to offer Taliban tariff-free trade, inches closer to regime

China will offer the Taliban tariff-free access to its vast construction, energy and consumer sectors, Beijing's envoy to Afghanistan said on Oct 24, as the ailing resource-rich but diplomatically isolated regime looks to build up its markets. Beijing has sought to develop its ties with the Taliban since they took control of Afghanistan in 2021, but like all governments has refrained from formally recognizing the Islamic fundamentalist group's rule amid international concern over its records on human rights and female rights. But the impoverished country could offer a wealth of mineral resources to boost Beijing's supply chain security although it risks becoming a haven for militant groups threatening China's Xinjiang region and huge investments in neighbouring Pakistan. Selling Afghanistan's lithium, copper and iron deposits to feed China's enormous battery and construction industries would help the Taliban prop up their economy, which the U.N. says has "basically collapsed," and provide a much-needed revenue stream as the country's overseas central bank reserves remain frozen. "China will offer Afghanistan zero-tariff treatment for 100% tariff lines," Zhao Xing, Chinese ambassador to Afghanistan, wrote on his official X account late on Oct 24, above a photo of him meeting acting deputy prime minister Abdul Kabir. Click here to read... [5]

TSMC tech in Huawei's AI chips raises questions about 'porous' supply chain

When a Canadian research firm found that Huawei Technologies' multi-chiplet artificial intelligence (AI) processor Ascend 910B contained dies made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), it shed light on possible loopholes in U.S. sanctions and China's persistent efforts to access advanced foundry technologies, according to analysts. "U.S. long-arm sanctions on China's semiconductor sector have proven to be porous," said Arisa Liu, a research fellow and director at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research. The discovery has caused a scramble to find explanations for what happened. TSMC has since halted shipments to an unnamed customer after discovering one of its chips supplied to the client ended up in a Huawei product, Reuters reported on Oct 23. The chipmaker also notified the U.S. government and Taiwanese authorities about the incident, a possible breach of U.S. export controls, according to Taiwan official media. In a previous statement, TSMC said it has not supplied Huawei since September 2020. Huawei said it has not "produced any chips via TSMC after the implementation of the amendments made by the US Department of Commerce to its [foreign direct product rule] that targeted Huawei in 2020." For now, there are more questions than answers. The duration, size and scope of the suspected customer's cooperation with TSMC remain unknown. Click here to read... [6]

Putin proposes new economic strategy for BRICS

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a BRICS investment platform to assist the economic growth of member countries and the development of the Global South and East. He put forward the idea on Oct 23 at the 16th annual BRICS Summit in Kazan. According to Putin, partner countries would benefit from a significant increase of investment in areas such as technology, education, trade, and logistics, to help their economies fully realize their growth potential. The platform “would become a powerful tool to support our national economies, as well as providing financial resources to the countries of the Global South and East,” the Russian president said. The Global South refers to countries mainly located in the Southern Hemisphere, mostly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, which are regarded as having a relatively low level of economic and industrial development. BRICS was founded in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa joining the group in 2010. This year, four more countries officially joined the bloc – Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia, which was also invited to become a member, also takes part in BRICS events but has not finalized the ratification process. Current BRICS member countries account for around 46% of the world’s population and over 36% of global GDP, according to estimates by global financial institutions. Click here to read... [7]

G-7 Finalizes $50 Billion Ukraine Loan Backed by Russian Assets

Group of Seven nations finalized a $50 billion loan to Ukraine backed by the profits generated by immobilized Russian central bank assets, clearing the way for much-needed aid to soon flow to Kyiv and largely shielding critical financing from the outcome of the US presidential election. “Today, we, the leaders of the Group of Seven have reached a consensus on how to deliver approximately $50 billion in Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loans to Ukraine,” the G-7 leaders said in a joint-statement. “The loan proceeds will be disbursed through multiple channels to support Ukraine’s budgetary, military and reconstruction assistance.” The deal came after the US and its allies overcame issues on how to structure such a loan and, more importantly, how to ensure its repayment is assured so that their taxpayers won’t be on the hook. The US said it will provide $20 billion, while Europe is expected to contribute roughly the same amount and the UK said it would put in around $3 billion. Canada and Japan are also expected to contribute. Under the agreed mechanism, the US, EU and other G-7 nations will each provide a loan to Ukraine that will be repaid using the profits generated by the roughly $280 billion of blocked funds, most of which lie immobilized in Europe. Click here to read... [8]

Supreme Court Rejects Bid to Let President Fire Agency Leaders

The US Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal that sought to give the president control over agencies that have long operated independently, potentially including the Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission. The appeal, pressed by two research organizations in a case involving the Consumer Product Safety Commission, contended that the Constitution gives the president broad power to fire the leaders of executive-branch agencies. It called into question a 1935 Supreme Court precedent that has become a top target for anti-regulatory groups. The court, as is its custom when turning away an appeal, made no comment, and no justice publicly dissented. The ruling, known as Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, upheld job protections for FTC commissioners and paved the way for the independent agencies that now proliferate across the US government. The appeal was pressed by Consumers’ Research and By Two LP, whose lawyers include Don McGahn, the White House counsel under former President Donald Trump. Congress established the CPSC in 1972. The commission sets standards for thousands of products — including cribs, cleaning products, kitchen appliances and all-terrain vehicles — and can seek multimillion-dollar fines from violators. The agency is headed by five commissioners who are appointed by the president for seven-year terms and can be fired only “for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office.” Click here to read... [9]

Central Asia Emerges as Epicentre of Rare Earth Mineral Rush

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are home to vast quantities of valuable rare earth minerals and seem to have the political and economic conditions that the West is looking for. “Unlike in the West, Central Asian governments are enthusiastic about the prospect of turning their vast deposits of [rare earth minerals and rare metals] into a new source of revenue for the local economies,” The Interpreter recently reported. Kazakhstan is already “taking strategic steps to strengthen its position in the global electric vehicle (EV) battery market by increasing the output of critical metals,” according to reporting from Dario, and the Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has even referred to these materials as the “new oil”. The massive central Asian nation has already signed deals with the European Union and the United Kingdom and could potentially be an amenable trading partner for the United States as well. The only problem is that Western powers are not the only major economies with their sights set on Central Asian resource riches. China and Russia are also eager to tap into these nascent markets and have certain competitive advantages over the West. “By virtue of history, geography, and regional and cultural particularities and dependencies, Central Asian countries are bound with Russia and China,” the Interpreter reports. Click here to read... [10]

U.S. Allies Unite for Critical Minerals Marketplace

Earlier in the week, Reuters reported that the European Union has kicked off the process of choosing between eight bidders to create a 9-million-euro joint purchasing platform for critical minerals and energy. The bloc mooted the idea of pooling together buying orders in a bid to achieve more favourable deals and prices for critical minerals shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The EU aims to finalize a contract by the end of the year, following which it will develop sections of the platform for individual products early next year. Reuters did not clarify whether the United States will be involved in the new platform. Well, it appears the United States is part of the critical minerals drive, after all. According to White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, the U.S. is working with allies to build a standardized international marketplace for metals and minerals in a bid to make the West less dependent on China. ‘‘Critical minerals are another example. That sector is marked by extreme price volatility, widespread corruption, weak labor and environmental protections, and heavy concentration in the PRC, which artificially drops prices to keep competitors out of the marketplace. If we and our partners fail to invest, the PRC’s domination of these and other supply chains will only grow, and that will leave us increasingly dependent on a country that has demonstrated its willingness to weaponize such dependencies. Click here to read... [11]

US Shale Gas Production Declines for the First Time Since 2000

U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations, which accounts for 79% of dry natural gas production, decreased slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. If this trend holds for the remainder of 2024, it would mark the first annual decrease in U.S. shale gas production since we started collecting these data in 2000. Total U.S. shale gas production from January through September 2024 declined by about 1%, to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the same period in 2023, while other U.S. dry natural gas production increased by about 6% to 22.1 Bcf/d. Total U.S. dry natural gas production from January through September 2024 averaged 103.3 Bcf/d, essentially flat compared with the same period in 2023. The decline in shale gas production so far this year has been driven primarily by declines in production in the Haynesville and Utica plays. From January through September 2024, shale gas production decreased by 12% (1.8 Bcf/d) in the Haynesville and by 10% (0.6 Bcf/d) in the Utica compared with the same period in 2023. At the same time, shale gas production in the Permian play grew by 10% (1.6 Bcf/d). Production in the Marcellus play, which leads U.S. shale gas production, remained flat. Click here to read... [12]

Russia's Arctic LNG 2 Project Put on Ice with No Restart Plans

Russia's Novatek recently halted operations at its Arctic LNG 2 project, and it has no plans to restart it this winter, according to an anonymous Reuters source familiar with the matter. The development is a significant setback for the country's gas ambitions. This project, primarily located on the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic and majority-owned by Novatek, was supposed to expand Russia's share in the global LNG market from 8% to an ambitious 20% by 2030. However, facing mounting sanctions from the U.S. and its allies due to the Ukraine conflict, Novatek has suspended its only active LNG train and currently has no plans to restart operations until next summer. This suspension, which took effect on October 11, reflects the difficulties Arctic LNG 2 faces in finding buyers and securing the specialized ice-class vessels required for winter operations. U.S. sanctions have made potential buyers wary of dealing with Russian LNG due to potential retaliatory consequences. In fact, U.S. Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt emphasized that the U.S. is stepping up efforts to choke off Russia's revenue from LNG sales, citing this as part of a broader strategy to reduce funding for Moscow's military actions. While the Arctic LNG 2 project is now on hold, some of Russia's other LNG operations, such as the Yamal and Portovaya projects, continue to deliver gas to Europe and Asia. Click here to read... [13]

Sharp rise in Russia’s share of EU LNG market – report

The share of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) in the EU market has reached 20% this year, the bloc’s energy watchdog reported in a quarterly review released on Oct 22. In 2023, the share of Russian-sourced tanker-movable fuel was 14%, according to statistics cited by the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). The shift came as supplies from Qatar, Nigeria, and minor suppliers declined. The US remains the biggest source of LNG, accounting for 45% of EU imports. The total flow as well as the EU’s share in the global LNG market have both shrunk this year. The bloc now accounts for 18% of all imports, down from 24% last year, the ACER report estimated. Roughly a third of all EU gas imports come in the form of LNG, with the rest being delivered via pipelines, according to the report. Russian pipeline supplies grew from 7.9 billion cubic meters in Q3 of 2023 to 8.6 billion cubic meters this year. Commenting on the findings, Bloomberg said it highlighted challenges in implementing the EU’s policy of reducing reliance on Russian supplies. This summer, Brussels banned investment in LNG projects in Russia and targeted the transshipment of Russian gas by third nations with a port access ban. Click here to read... [14]

India-EU trade talks stumble over agriculture, German minister says

Agriculture is the "most problematic" area in talks to secure a free trade deal between India and the European Union, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Oct 24, suggesting that it would be better to focus on the industrial sector first. Habeck is in India for a regional business conference and is part of a high-level delegation that aims to build better trade and business relations between two of the world's biggest economies. Agriculture is a problematic area as there is a huge variation in the number of people working in the farm sector in India and Germany, he told reporters, adding that it was 2% of the population in Germany compared to about 60% in India. "So, you can't compare the two agricultural systems. If you were to open the markets completely ... the disruption to the Indian market will be tremendous," Habeck said. It would be faster, smoother and practical to focus on the industrial sector instead, he said. Although this is "not in line" with what the EU normally does, a "shortcut" may be the way forward as clubbing agriculture, services and industry was making it difficult, Habeck added. Click here to read... [15]

China’s Canton Fair, barometer of foreign trade, shows US, EU buyers may lose interest

When the autumn edition of China’s oldest and largest trade fair opened its doors last week, many Chinese exporters could not help but notice that Europeans and North Americans were less represented among the bustle of buyers at the twice-yearly event. As such, there are simmering concerns that orders could fall short of the exporters’ expectations – and well shy of what was seen during the April session – over the span of the 136th China Import and Export Fair, commonly known as the Canton Fair, which wraps up on November 4. Some also expressed frustration at the shrinking numbers of buyers from Russia and affluent regions of the Middle East. “There are fewer buyers than in the April session,” said Joan Liang, sales manager of Guangdong Roule Electronics, which makes doorbells, solar lights and cameras. “Customers’ willingness to purchase doesn’t seem as strong as we had anticipated.” Despite having invited Middle Eastern customers from Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Dubai, Liang said many failed to appear at the company’s booth, and she speculated that geopolitical conflicts in the region might be affecting their participation in the widely watched event. The Canton Fair is generally seen as a barometer of China’s foreign trade. It is divided into three phases to attract different types of buyers. Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

Japan's ruling LDP coalition loses majority for first time since 2009

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time since 2009 in Oct 27's general election, casting uncertainty over the future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government less than a month after he took office. The LDP, led by Ishiba, and Komeito won a combined 215 seats by Nikkei's count, falling short of the 233 needed to maintain a majority in the 465-seat chamber. The opposition parties secured 235 seats. Both sides are expected to start a scramble to put together a majority coalition to form a government. Ishiba is set to hold a news conference on Oct 28 afternoon during which he is likely to clarify his future plans following the coalition's drubbing in the snap election, which he called eight days into his tenure as prime minister in a bid to win a vote of public confidence for his cabinet. Japanese prime ministers sometimes face internal pressure to step down after their parties lose seats in elections. Despite its losses, the LDP remains the single largest party in the lower house with 191 seats. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats in the chamber, up from 98 before the election, while the Democratic Party for the People also increased its seven seats to 28, amid public anger at the LDP over a political funding scandal involving dozens of its lawmakers. Click here to read... [17]

New centres of power, sovereign equality and Western coercion: What’s in the BRICS Kazan Declaration

The BRICS nations approved a joint communique on Oct 23 during the group’s three-day summit in the Russian city of Kazan. The document addresses multiple global crises and challenges and calls for a fairer and more just international order. The group reaffirmed its commitment to promoting a multipolar world order where all nations have an equal say in global affairs. This is reflected in the declaration’s call for greater representation of emerging and developing countries in international institutions. “We note the emergence of new centres of power, policy decision-making, and economic growth, which can pave the way for a more equitable, just, democratic, and balanced multipolar world order,” the document stated, adding that this system would be more beneficial to developing countries than the current Western-led international order. The BRICS countries welcomed the growing influence of regional organizations such as the African Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These organizations are viewed as important platforms for promoting economic cooperation, security, and cultural exchange among their member states. The declaration also called for a strengthened World Trade Organization to resolve trade disputes and an expanded UN Security Council to provide greater representation for the Global South. The group emphasized that all countries have the right to pursue their own development paths and make decisions about their internal affairs without interference from other states. Click here to read... [18]

North Korean troops are in Russia, U.S. defense secretary says

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Oct 23 there is evidence that North Korean troops are in Russia, but it remained to be seen what they would be doing there. Austin said it would be "very, very serious" if they are preparing to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, as Kyiv has alleged. "There is evidence that there are DPRK troops in Russia," Austin told reporters in Rome, using North Korea's formal name: the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "What exactly they are doing? Left to be seen. These are things that we need to sort out." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has cited intelligence about the preparation of two units with possibly up to 12,000 North Korean troops who would take part in the war alongside Russian forces. "We'll continue to pull this thread and see what happens here," Austin said of the intelligence analysis. "If they are co-belligerents, [if] their intention is to participate in this war on Russia's behalf, that is a very, very serious issue." The Kremlin has dismissed assertions that North Korea may have sent some military personnel to help Russia against Ukraine. Since their leaders met in Russia's Far East last year, North Korea and Russia have upgraded their military ties. They met again in June to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership that includes a mutual defense pact. Click here to read... [19]

Marcos-Duterte rift takes centre stage in Philippine 2025 midterms

The rift between two of the most powerful political families in the Philippines -- that of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and that of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte -- is likely to take centre stage in the country's midterm elections next year. Vice President Sara Duterte, the former leader's daughter, on Oct 25 told reporters that Marcos "doesn't know how to govern," underscoring a growing rivalry that could overshadow the main concerns of Filipinos, ranging from tensions with China to rising consumer prices, in the upcoming polls. The Southeast Asian country will hold nationwide midterm elections in May 2025, the biggest polls before the 2028 presidential election. A total of 18,280 elected positions at the national and local levels are being contested, including seats in the powerful Senate. While the incumbent leader seeks to cement his power in national politics, the Dutertes are working to maintain their influence in its southern stronghold, which some analysts see as laying the groundwork to expand his family's influence in national politics. Election authorities closed applications for would-be candidates on Oct. 8. Among the most closely watched races will be those for the Senate: 12 of the upper house's 24 seats are up for grabs this time. Senators have significant sway over the country's policymaking process. Click here to read... [20]

How an anxious China is backing Myanmar’s faltering junta in civil war

When an alliance led by three rebel armies seized swathes of territory near Myanmar’s border with China from the military junta last October, Beijing looked the other way. A year on, rebel forces have ground down the junta, pushing the military out of vital borderlands and making inroads into the contested heart of Myanmar. In response, China has sealed the border and shut off key imports to territory under rebel control, said a rebel leader and five border-area residents, a move analysts say aims to dissuade the alliance from further advances, including attacking the cultural capital of Mandalay. After initially backing the Three Brotherhood Alliance to crack down on rampant border crime going unchecked by the junta, Beijing is increasingly alarmed at the rapid degeneration of the military, which it still sees as a guarantor of stability in its neighbour, said two analysts who track Myanmar-China relations. The previously unreported details of how Beijing is pressuring rebel forces, including by blocking imports - leading at least one group to withdraw from the fight - were described to Reuters by nine people with knowledge of the conflict. One inflection point came in August, when the alliance took the northeastern town of Lashio, marking the first seizure of a regional military command in Myanmar’s history. Click here to read... [21]

Israel attacks branches of Hezbollah-linked finance group in Lebanon

Israel has carried out air strikes on a Lebanese financial institution linked to Hezbollah as it expanded the scope of its attacks in Lebanon. Israeli strikes hit al-Qard Al-Hassan branches in the cities of Nabatieh and Tyre overnight, Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported on Oct 21. The financial firm has more than 30 outlets across Lebanon. There was no immediate comment from al-Qard Al-Hassan, Hezbollah or the Lebanese government. The Israeli military said it had conducted a series of strikes against “dozens of facilities and sites” used by Hezbollah in Beirut and southern Lebanon, including on branches of the financial institution. The ground outside the wrecked al-Qard Al-Hassan branch in the city of Tyre was strewn with rubble, shattered glass and scattered papers. The strikes mark an expansion of Israel’s nearly month-long escalation with the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. The Arabic language spokesman for the Israeli military, Avichay Adraee, said the attacks targeted locations “used to store money for the military arm of Hezbollah,” including al-Qard al-Hassan, which finances arms purchases and is used to pay fighters. He said Hezbollah stores hundreds of millions of dollars in the branches, without providing evidence, and that the strikes were aimed at preventing the group from rearming. Click here to read... [22]

How Israel Pulled Off Its Largest-Ever Strike on Iran

Shortly before 2 a.m. on Oct 26 in Israel, airmen and women wearing bomber jackets bearing the Star of David climbed into the cockpits of about 100 jet fighters, spy planes and refuelling aircraft at an Israeli military base. They were following commands from an underground bunker known as the pit. Israel’s wartime leaders, who were gathered in the bowels of the military headquarters in Tel Aviv, had just given the green light for the largest attack against Iran in Israel’s history—and its most politically perilous. They called the operation “Days of Repentance.” The assault was calibrated to punish Iran for an attack on Israel but aimed to avoid setting off a full-scale war between the two foes involving American forces and other countries in the region. The attack steered clear of the oil and nuclear facilities that Iran had warned would prompt a retaliation and appeared to heed the caution urged by U.S. officials. The attack, however, marked a dangerous new phase of confrontation between Israel and Iran, which began striking each other directly earlier this year. It left Iran even more exposed to further air attacks, with Israel destroying several of the country’s Russian-made S-300 batteries, according to an Israeli official. Click here to read... [23]

Qatar, US say Gaza ceasefire talks to resume in Doha

The United States and Qatar have announced a resumption of negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said mediators are exploring new options after months of failure to seal a US-led plan. With less than two weeks before US elections, Blinken is paying his 11th trip to the region since Israel launched its assault on Gaza, which killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar last week, following the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Blinken said Oct 24 negotiators would resume talks “in the coming days” on ways to end the yearlong Gaza war and free dozens of captives seized by Palestinian armed groups in the October 7 attack. “We talked about options to capitalise on this moment and next steps to move the process forward,” Blinken said, after talks with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani. He said that the two partners were seeking a plan “so that Israel can withdraw, so that Hamas cannot reconstitute, and so that the Palestinian people can rebuild their lives and rebuild their futures”. “This is a moment to work to end this war, to make sure all the hostages are home, and to build a better future for people in Gaza,” he said. The Qatari prime minister said Israeli and US delegations would meet in Doha to discuss a potential ceasefire. Click here to read... [24]

Why Release of PKK Leader Is Under Discussion in Turkey

A political ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling for the conditional release of Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party who has spent almost 25 years behind bars. The proposal by Devlet Bahceli, who heads the Turkish ultra-nationalist party the MHP, has triggered speculation that Erdogan’s government may revive talks to end a conflict that’s gone on for four decades and claimed more than 40,000 lives. Bahceli said the 76-year-old Ocalan should be freed on the condition that he call on his fellow PKK leaders to disarm and engage in a political resolution to the conflict. Although Ocalan no longer directs the PKK’s day-to-day operations, he is still revered by the movement’s commanders on the ground. That said, any peace deal he negotiated would mean little if they refused to sign up to it. Who is Abdullah Ocalan? Ocalan founded the PKK in Turkey’s Kurdish-dominated southeast in 1978, with a manifesto that combined socialist economic principles with demands for Kurdish autonomy. The group took up arms in 1984 and, by the 1990s, had evolved into a guerrilla force of more than 10,000 fighters. Ocalan maintained tight control over the PKK until his capture in 1999, after which he was imprisoned on an island in the Sea of Marmara southwest of Istanbul. Initially condemned to death for treason, his sentence was later commuted to life imprisonment. Click here to read... [25]

In Turkey, Gulen’s death marks opportunity to move on from coup attempt

The news that Fethullah Gulen, widely believed in Turkey to be the mastermind behind the country’s 2016 coup attempt, had died had not yet reached Omer, a taxi driver heading towards Istanbul’s Fatih district. When he heard, Omer was shocked. “It finally happened,” he exclaimed, turning up the radio. As word of Gulen’s death in the United States spread on a crisp autumn day, bystanders began gathering outside the Istanbul municipality building in Fatih – one of the epicentres of the violence during the coup attempt, a night widely regarded as a turning point in modern Turkish history. They gathered near the Sarachane memorial, which honours the anti-coup protesters of July 15, 2016. The memorial includes a depiction of protesters performing ablution – a ritual purification for Muslims – at a nearby fountain before confronting soldiers and tanks in response to a call by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At least 251 people were killed, and more than 2,200 injured, but the coup was quashed within hours. The blame was immediately put on Gulen, a Muslim preacher who formed and led a movement that went from being an ally of Erdogan’s to a foe and perceived to be operating a “parallel state”. His followers in the armed forces were believed by the state to be behind the coup – a point of view widely shared in Turkey by government supporters and the opposition. Click here to read... [26]

Seven NATO members oppose Ukraine membership – Politico

A group of NATO members led by the US and Germany are reluctant to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the military bloc anytime soon, Politico reported on Oct 23, citing sources. Last week, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky presented his ‘victory plan’, which included a demand for immediate NATO membership. However, four unnamed US and NATO officials have reportedly told Politico that Berlin and Washington are “slow walking” the request, adding that “key alliance members are worried about getting ensnared in a war with Russia.” US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told Politico that the bloc “has not, to date, reached the point where it is prepared to offer membership or an invitation to Ukraine.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier said that it was his duty to prevent the Ukraine conflict from spiralling into a full-scale war between Russia and NATO, adding that Kiev would become a part of the bloc only when certain conditions are met. Hungary and Slovakia – which have been critical of the Western approach to the Ukraine conflict and have insisted on an immediate ceasefire – are two other holdouts. Politico described their leaders as following “a generally pro-Kremlin line.” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called Zelensky’s plan outright “terrifying,” while his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico warned that Ukraine’s accession to NATO could lead to World War III. Click here to read... [27]

Pakistan Lawmakers Change Constitution to Strengthen Influence

Pakistan’s ruling coalition approved a set of changes in the Constitution early Oct 21 morning, in a show of strength in parliament by cutting the powers of the top judiciary to appoint its chief. A parliamentary committee will now choose the chief justice from the three senior most justices of the Supreme Court, law minister Azam Nazeer Tarar, said in a speech to parliament’s lower house. Under the earlier law, the senior most judge would become the chief justice without the government’s or parliament’s interference. The changes were approved by a two-third majority in the lower and upper houses of the parliament separately in sessions that went past midnight. The ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and supported by Pakistan Peoples Party, which is co-chaired by President Asif Ali Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, met with political parties for weeks to gain support for the changes. This “essentially signifies a stronger coalition government going forward, Marva Khan, an assistant professor at the law school of the Lahore University of Management Sciences, said. “They now have the power over judicial appointments, which was very much in the hands of the chief justice.” Click here to read... [28]

China, India Start Pulling Troops from Border Friction Areas

China and India are pulling back troops from the two remaining friction points along the disputed Himalayan border, days after the leaders of the two countries met. Troops deployed toe-to-toe are moving back and temporary structures built during a four-year stalemate at the border are to be dismantled, senior Indian officials said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. Earlier this week, the two nuclear-armed neighbours announced they’d reached an agreement to resume normal border patrols, easing a standoff that began in 2020 when clashes left 20 Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers dead. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi followed up with their first formal meeting in two years on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan on Oct 23. The retreat of the soldiers and the dismantling of structures at the border will be completed by the end of this month, according to senior Indian defense ministry officials, who asked not to be identified in order to discuss the matter. In a first, the militaries of both countries agreed to give each other advanced notice of patrolling of the two friction points, the people said. The coordinated arrangement is limited to the two areas but can be extended to other friction points of the disputed border, they said. Click here to read... [29]

Mainland China lashes out at US$2 billion American arms package for Taiwan

Beijing lashed out against the latest US arms sale to Taiwan and pledged to take countermeasures to defend its sovereignty. The Pentagon said on Oct 25 that it had approved the sale of nearly US$2 billion, including almost US$1.2 billion in purchases of three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems. It will be the first time the advanced defensive weapon, which has been used on the battlefield in Ukraine, has been supplied to Taiwan. The deal also includes radar systems worth an estimated US$828 million. Beijing “has lodged serious protests with the US”, the foreign ministry said on Oct 26, pledging “resolute countermeasures and to take all measures necessary to firmly defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity”. It added: “The sales seriously undermine China’s sovereignty and security interests, harm China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and send a gravely wrong message to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.” Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland. The United States, in common with most countries, does not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is committed to providing it with arms to defend itself. Click here to read... [30]

PLA drills in the dark show mainland China ‘ready for surprises’, such as over Taiwan

The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) stronger emphasis on nighttime training signals readiness for “surprises”, including in a possible war scenario over Taiwan, military experts say. Beijing’s most senior uniformed military official, Zhang Youxia, oversaw the latest such drills, which were held earlier this week in Hebei, a province bordering the capital. Zhang is the first-ranked vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, a body led by President Xi Jinping. He is also a member of the Politburo, Beijing’s top decision-making group. He inspected live-fire drills during a three-day “combined military operation” that started Oct 20, according to state news agency Xinhua. The operation came less than a week after the latest large-scale PLA drills around Taiwan, a 13-hour exercise dubbed Joint-Sword 2024B that began before sunrise on October 14. Fu Zhengnan, a researcher at the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences, told state media that the Joint-Sword drill was “closer to real combat” than previous exercises, citing indicators including the decision to train at night and in the early morning. Lyle Goldstein, director for Asia Engagement at Washington-based think tank Defence Priorities and head of the China Initiative at Brown University, pointed to the “surprise” element. “The PLA has operated at an elevated state of readiness for years, conducting high intensity combat training at night. These include highly complex and dangerous exercises like amphibious warfare,” Goldstein said. Click here to read... [31]

Health

Biden Aims to Expand Free Birth Control Access as Election Nears

President Joe Biden’s administration unveiled a proposal that would require private health plans to cover over-the-counter contraception at no additional cost to consumers. The Food and Drug Administration last year granted the first US clearance for an OTC daily oral birth control product, yet Perrigo Co.’s Opill — available in stores and for online order since March — has been prohibitive for many at $19.99 per month. The proposed rule aligns with Vice President Kamala Harris’ focus on expanding reproductive care, from birth control to abortion to postpartum coverage, as part of her presidential bid in the Nov. 5 election. Biden administration officials told reporters they’ve documented a large number of complaints about women who are unable to access contraceptives with higher out-of-pocket costs. “Today, our administration is proposing the largest expansion of contraception coverage in more than a decade,” Harris said in a statement Oct 21. Click here to read... [32]

German doctors alarmed at growing failures of antibiotics – Bild

German doctors are warning that the world risks going back to the era before the discovery of penicillin, Bild reported on Oct 21. Medics are pointing to a rise in antibiotic-resistant pathogens, the newspaper added. Penicillin, discovered in the late 1920s, dramatically extended the human lifespan by up to 30 years by countering most bacterial infections. All of that progress is now reportedly in peril. “We are currently losing the achievements of modern medicine and falling back into the time before the discovery of penicillin,” Mathias Pletz, head of the Paul Ehrlich Society for Infection Therapy, told Bild. “Antibiotics were the greatest achievement of medicine ever,” said Professor Yvonne Mast, a microbiologist and researcher at the Leibniz Institute in Braunschweig. “The fact that more and more resistance is now emerging, and new antibiotics are lacking is a major threat.” The German outlet quoted a study that estimated up to 39 million deaths around the world by 2050 due to antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Such infections already account for 35,000 deaths in the EU every year. According to Professor Frank Brunkhorst of the Jena University Hospital, one of the reasons is that doctors overprescribe antibiotics for outpatient procedures. For example, antibiotics are useless against almost all respiratory infections, which are caused by viruses. Click here to read... [33]