Global Developments and Analysis: Weekly Monitor(14-20 October 2024)

Economic

UN report says 1.1 billion people living in acute poverty

More than one billion people live in acute poverty, with nearly half of them in countries experiencing conflict, according to a new United Nations report. Countries at war have higher levels of deprivation across all indicators of “multidimensional poverty”, according to an index published on Oct 17 by the UN Development Programme (UNDP), reporting “markedly more severe” disparities in nutrition, access to electricity, and access to water and sanitation. Research across 112 countries and 6.3 billion people revealed that 1.1 billion people endure poverty, with 455 million of them living “in the shadow of conflict”, according to the Multidimensional Poverty Index. “Conflicts have intensified and multiplied in recent years, reaching new highs in casualties, displacing record millions of people, and causing widespread disruption to lives and livelihoods,” said the UNDP’s Achim Steiner. The index showed that some 584 million people under 18 were experiencing extreme poverty, accounting for 27.9 percent of children worldwide, compared with 13.5 percent of adults. Child mortality in conflict settings was 8 percent, compared with 1.1 percent in peaceful countries. It also said that 83.2 percent of the world’s poorest people live in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The index, compiled jointly with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), used indicators such as a lack of adequate housing, sanitation, electricity, cooking fuel, nutrition and school attendance to assess levels of “multidimensional poverty”. Click here to read... [2]

Russia and China gear up for bigger BRICS summit in push for new order

Russia is set to host the first BRICS summit since the group expanded its membership, as Moscow aims to dispel the notion that it is internationally isolated and seeks to reshape the world order together with its partner China. In the Russian city of Kazan, approximately 800 kilometres east of Moscow, leaders will gather from Oct 22 to Oct 24 discuss ways to improve international cooperation on security, the economy and finance. Another key item on the agenda is the further enlargement of BRICS itself. At the beginning of this year, core members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa welcomed Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates to the group. Saudi Arabia, which was also invited to join, will be attending the upcoming summit as well. As of mid-October, 24 heads of state were due to take part in the talks along with high-ranking representatives of another eight countries, according to the Russian organizers. Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend, Beijing's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Oct 18. There is no consensus among members about additional expansion, but Russia is promoting a new "partner country" model as a precursor to full membership. China appears to share Russia's vision of a larger, invigorated BRICS. Click here to read... [3]

U.S. imposes sanctions on Chinese companies accused of helping make Russian attack drones

The U.S. Treasury Department on Oct 17 announced sanctions against two Chinese companies accused of directly helping Russia build long-range attack drones used in the war in Ukraine. It is the first time the U.S. has imposed penalties on Chinese makers of drone engines and parts for “developing and producing complete weapons systems” in collaboration with Russian companies, the department said. The U.S. has previously accused China of providing material support to Russia’s military-industrial base to sustain the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine, and the latest round of sanctions seeks to target the “direct activity” between Beijing and Moscow, according to senior Biden administration officials, who discussed the sanctions on the condition of anonymity before the measures were announced. Russia’s Garpiya series long-range attack drone, “designed and produced in the People’s Republic of China in collaboration with Russian defense firms, has been used to destroy critical infrastructure and has resulted in mass casualties” during the war in Ukraine, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement. The Chinese Embassy in Washington called the U.S. accusations false. It said China’s trade with Russia is “open and aboveboard” and in line with World Trade Organization rules and market principles. Click here to read... [4]

China's 'entrepreneurship for everyone' era ends as state sets agenda

A "digital innovation service centre" in downtown Shenzhen, a sprawling tech hub in southern China, was designed to cater to the local startup scene. A poster in the office promises legal, recruitment and other help for "advanced enterprises in the digital content industry" looking to gain a foothold in the Greater Bay Area, an economic cluster encompassing Shenzhen and its neighbouring cities, as well as Hong Kong and Macao. A recent visit, however, revealed few signs of anything digital or particularly innovative. Many of the small offices designed for startups were empty. Some of the few tenants were offering yoga and Pilates classes, with brightly lit logos outside their doors and photos of instructors on the walls. This is unlikely to be what late Premier Li Keqiang had in mind when he launched the slogan "massive entrepreneurship and innovation by all," back in 2014. It worked for a while, sparking a vast effort to nurture startups that attracted top global venture capital funds and put China hot on the heels of the U.S. by number of unicorns -- privately held companies valued at $1 billion or more. Incubators and co-working spaces for fledgling businesses sprouted nationwide. Now the space is shrinking. Venture capital and private equity investment in China fell 38.7% on the year in the first half of 2024, to 196.7 billion yuan ($28 billion), according to research company Zero2IPO. Click here to read... [5]

Why did China’s police chief make a rare foray into economic policy?

China’s top police officer has made a rare comment on economic matters with a call for better risk management and stability. The state media reports of Wang Xiaohong’s comments highlighted that he was speaking in his capacity as a senior member of the Communist Party and as a state councillor, rather than as public security minister, showing the importance the leadership places on meeting this year’s economic targets in the face of a faltering economy. The emphasis on economic growth by a senior official in charge of other areas may indicate that meeting this year’s 5 per cent growth target is becoming increasingly challenging. Wang’s comments echo recent calls by President Xi Jinping for “full efforts” to this quarter’s economic targets. Beijing hopes the economy will achieve 5 per cent growth in gross domestic product this year. But with China only achieving 4.7 per cent in the second quarter, the third quarter economic data, to be released on Oct 18, will be crucial to achieving the goal. Speaking during a trip to the northern port city of Tianjin, Wang and told officials: “Do a good job in preventing risk, ensuring security and maintaining stability, and achieve a virtuous interaction between high-quality development and a high level of safety.” Click here to read... [6]

China Security Group Urges Review of Intel’s Chips as Tech Tension with U.S. Rises

An influential Chinese industry group called for a cybersecurity review of Intel’s products, threatening to embroil the chip maker in a new round of U.S.-China tension over technology as it contends with other big challenges in its business. The Cyber Security Association of China on Oct 16 urged for the review by the nation’s regulator, claiming that Intel’s products have shown security vulnerabilities and high failure rates and pose a national-security threat to the country. The call could be a precursor to an official investigation in one of Intel’s most important markets by the powerful Cyberspace Administration of China, which last year conducted a cybersecurity review of another American chip maker, Micron Technology. That review identified “significant security risks” in Micron’s products, and the administration directed major operators of IT infrastructure in the country not to buy them. Micron estimated that the ban would reduce its sales by a low double-digit percentage. Intel’s shares fell by as much as 4% Oct 16 before regaining some ground to close down 1.5%. A spokeswoman said that Intel would work with Chinese officials to “clarify any questions that may exist and demonstrate Intel’s deep commitment to the safety and security of our products.” For Intel, any curtailing of sales in China could have a significant impact when the company is struggling. Click here to read... [7]

BMW Says EU Ban on Gasoline Cars from 2035 Is “No Longer Realistic”

Germany’s car manufacturing giant BMW is warning that an EU ban on the sale of gasoline and diesel cars from 2035 is “no longer realistic” amid slow EV sales as the European auto industry will see a “massive shrinking” with such a ban. European carmakers are already struggling with their EV sales as subsidies in many countries are coming to an end and Chinese low-cost vehicle makers are gaining market share. Last year, the EU member states approved an emissions regulation under which the bloc will end sales of new carbon dioxide-emitting cars and vans in 2035. The rules target 55% CO2 emission reductions for new cars and 50% for new vans from 2030 to 2034 compared to 2021 levels, as well as 100% CO2 emission reductions for both new cars and vans from 2035. Under the regulation, the European Commission will assess in 2026 the progress the EU has made in achieving the target. The Commission will decide whether the targets need to be reviewed. But BMW’s chief executive Oliver Zipse said on Oct 15 at the Paris Automotive Summit that the ban “could also threaten the European automotive industry in its heart.” The current regulations will “with today’s assumptions, lead to a massive shrinking of the industry as a whole,” Zipse added, as carried by Bloomberg. Click here to read... [8]

India’s Solar Panel Import Bill Could Hit $30 Billion

India could end up paying $30 billion annually for imported solar panels if it is to hit its 2030 capacity target of 500 GW in wind and solar. The forecast comes from a local think tank, the Global Trade Research Initiative, which said such a path would deepen the dependence of the country on its neighbour China, the Business Standard reported. The think tank added that building its own solar components supply chain at home would be a challenge, requiring substantial investment, especially in polysilicon and wafers, ET Energy World noted in a report. As things stand now, India does manufacture some equipment locally, but it is heavily dependent on input imports, the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative told the publication. “Local production is import-dependent and mainly focuses on the final two stages,” he explained. “90 percent of solar manufacturing in India involves assembling solar modules from imported cells with 15% local value addition,” Ajay Srivastava said. India is already installing solar and wind capacity fast but nowhere near fast enough if it wants to make that 2030 target. In fiscal 2023-24, total solar installations in the country stood at 15 GW, bringing the national total to 90.8 GW as of September. Click here to read... [9]

Deepwater Investments Outpacing Shale

Over the past two decades, the shale revolution largely pushed aside interest in the exploration and development of offshore hydrocarbons. The combination of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling enabled the United States to significantly increase its production of oil and natural gas from tight oil formations, with the Shale Patch accounting for 36% of total U.S. crude oil production. However, there are growing signs that the U.S. shale boom could be close to a peak. Whereas overall output is close to record levels, the amount of oil recovered per foot drilled in the Permian Basin of Texas fell 15% from 2020 to 2023, a pace of decline on par with a decade ago. Thankfully, this is happening just as the global offshore oil boom is taking off. Recent big deepwater discoveries off the coast of Guyana, the Gulf of Mexico and Namibia are bringing back interest to the offshore sector. To sweeten the deal further, deepwater projects come with qualities that modern energy companies desire: lower costs, greater resource potential, longer production periods and lower levels of carbon dioxide emissions. According to Norwegian global energy consultant, Rystad Energy, the market of the equipment for underwater oil production will grow at a 10% annual clip between 2024 and 2027. Click here to read... [10]

Aramco CEO Calls for Energy Transition Reset in Developing World

Saudi Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser has called for what he dubbed a reset in the transition plans for developing countries, citing strong projected growth in oil demand for the Global South. Developing economies are growing and living standards are rising, Nasser said today at the Singapore International Energy Week, as cited by Reuters. This growth is driving higher oil demand, he added, noting this demand growth would extend over a long time. Even when growth slows down and eventually stops, Nasser added, demand for oil will remain at a plateau for another extended period. “If so, more than 100 million barrels per day would realistically still be required by 2050,” Aramco’s chief executive said, adding that “This is a stark contrast with those predicting that oil will, or must, fall to just 25 million barrels per day by then. Being short 75 million barrels every day would be devastating for energy security and affordability.” Because of all this, developing countries should decide on the best energy mix for themselves, Nasser suggested, as well as on a transition pace that is right for them. “Our main focus should be on the levers available now,” the executive said. Click here to read... [11]

Worst drought in century devastates Southern Africa, millions at risk

Millions of people across Southern Africa are going hungry due to a historic drought, risking a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe, the United Nations has warned. Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have all declared a state of national disaster in the past months as the drought has destroyed crops and livestock. Angola and Mozambique are also severely affected, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) said in a briefing on Oct 15, warning that the crisis is expected to deepen until the next harvests in March or April 2025. “A historic drought – the worst food crisis yet – has devastated more than 27 million lives across the region,” WFP spokesperson Tomson Phiri said. “Some 21 million children are malnourished. “October in Southern Africa marks the start of the lean season, and each month is expected to be worse than the previous one until harvests next year in March and April. Crops have failed, livestock have perished, and children are lucky to receive one meal per day.” Tens of millions of people in the region rely on small-scale agriculture, irrigated by rain, for their food and to make money to buy provisions. Aid agencies warned of a potential disaster late last year as the El Nino weather phenomenon led to below-average rainfall across the region. Its effects have been intensified by rising temperatures linked to climate change. Click here to read... [12]

South Africa’s Bailout Bill for State Firms Nears $30 Billion

Bailouts for South Africa’s cash-strapped state companies have cost taxpayers 456.5 billion rand ($25.7 billion) over the past nine financial years, and the bill is set to rise to 520.6 billion rand by the end of March, according to the National Treasury. The aid has been financed by increasing borrowing and cutting back on other budgetary allocations, with spending on infrastructure and essential goods and services the most impacted, the Treasury said in a presentation to lawmakers in Cape Town on Oct 15. Power utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. has received the bulk of the bailouts — it will have received a total of 496 billion rand by the end of the current financial year. South African National Roads Agency SOC Ltd. has been allocated a total of 47 billion rand and South African Airways, the national carrier, 49 billion rand. Transnet SOC Ltd., the state logistics company, requested 61 billion rand late last year. “Broad reforms are underway in energy, freight, water and telecommunications,” Rudzani Mandiwana, the Treasury’s chief director of asset and liability management, told lawmakers. Click here to read... [13]

EU Holds Talks on Gas Imports as Russia Exerts Pressure

Europe’s energy ministers are meeting to discuss imports of Russian natural gas that still flow to the region even as the war in Ukraine rages for a third winter. At a meeting in Luxembourg on Oct 15, ministers from 27 nations will discuss how prepared the region is for winter as a key gas transit agreement between Moscow and Kyiv expires on Dec. 31. The need to maintain energy security has already forced the bloc to seek new gas supplies, pushed up energy prices and put pressure on the region’s network. Europe needs to maintain its efforts to shift away from Russian fossil fuels by reducing gas consumption and building renewable capacity more quickly. The Ukraine pipeline is one of just two remaining routes to Europe for Russian flows, but exports of liquefied natural gas continue to arrive at Europe’s shores in abundance. “Some countries obviously have internal issues clouding their judgment and preventing them from a fast switch” away from Russian gas, said Krzysztof Bolesta, Poland’s deputy climate minister, ahead of the meeting. “But it’s been 2 1/2 years and it’s really time to find an alternative.” Negotiations are ongoing to try to replace transit flows, but a deal doesn’t seem to be close with less than three months left to run. Both Kyiv and Moscow have said they’re willing to find a solution that could involve Azerbaijan. Click here to read... [14]

Russia keeps fertilizer aid flowing to Global South

A shipment of Russian humanitarian fertilizer has departed Latvian waters to commence its trip to Sri Lanka, producer Uralchem announced on Oct 18. The vessel, MV Asian Majesty, has been anchored in the Bay of Riga with 55,000 tons of potash on board since early 2022, due to Ukraine-related Western sanctions. According to the company’s statement, inspections showed that the fertilizer remained in good condition despite its long-term storage on the ship and could contribute to improving vital crop farming in the South Asian country. “Unfortunately, Sri Lanka has recently suffered one of the worst economic crises in decades, which affected this island nation’s agricultural output and put vast swaths of the population at risk of food insecurity,” Uralchem CEO Dmitry Konyaev said. He pointed out that “potash is an essential nutrient for the growth and reproduction of plants, and its use in crop farming is vital for consistent yield gains,” stressing that the company is “proud to contribute to the stability of Sri Lanka’s farming sector and the wellbeing of its people.” This is the sixth free fertilizer shipment by Uralchem to countries facing risks of food shortages as the company aims to “alleviate the effects of an unprecedented global food crisis.” Click here to read... [15]

Amazon Joins Big Tech’s Foray into Nuclear Power

Amazon.com signed deals to back nuclear-power projects across the U.S., becoming the latest big tech company to commit to fuelling a renaissance of the electricity source to power the rapid development of artificial intelligence. On Oct 16, Amazon said it agreed to work with Dominion Energy D 1.55%increase; green up pointing triangle to explore the development of small modular nuclear reactors, or SMRs, in Virginia. That could enable faster and less costly construction by building smaller reactors instead of behemoth bespoke plants that can run years overdue and billions over budget. Amazon also said it was part of a $500 million financing deal for X-energy Reactor, a nuclear-reactor and fuel-technology company. The Seattle tech giant and privately held X-energy are working together to bring more than 5 gigawatts of new power projects online in the U.S. by 2039, in what they say would be the biggest deployment of SMRs to date. Others involved in the financing deal include Citadel founder and Chief Executive Ken Griffin, affiliates of Ares Management Corp and the University of Michigan. “We need smart solutions that can help us meet growing energy demands while also addressing climate change,” Amazon Vice President of Global Data Centers Kevin Miller said in a news release, adding, “X-energy’s technology will be integral in helping achieve this.” Click here to read... [16]

Strategic

China’s Xi Jinping targets deterrence and discipline in PLA Rocket Force inspection

Chinese President Xi Jinping put the national spotlight back on the military’s missile defences, inspecting a PLA Rocket Force brigade in the country’s southeast roughly a month after a landmark ICBM test. During the visit to a strategic missile brigade in Anhui province on Oct 17, Xi underlined the need for stronger missile deterrence as well as tighter discipline, state news agency Xinhua reported on Oct 19. He told the brigade to “adapt to the changes in modern warfare and combat methods and keep a close eye on [changes in] combat missions, opponents, and environment”. Xi, who is also head of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the body in charge of the armed forces, said that while troops should refine skills in conventional operations, they should also develop new skills, tactics and abilities with new equipment in a “targeted manner”. “[Missile troops should] obey political guidance ... [and] enhance strategic deterrence and combat capabilities,” he said, on a trip that included equipment and training inspections. The brigade was not identified but Xinhua did say it dated back more than 50 years. The rocket force, which was established in 2015 as part of Xi’s overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army, oversees the country’s nuclear weapons, a central part of China’s strategic deterrence plans. Click here to read... [17]

Any deployment of U.S. nuclear arms to Japan would collapse regional stability, Russia says

Any deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to Japan in the framework of an “Asian NATO” would lead to a collapse in regional stability, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Oct 16. Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, on the eve of taking office, outlined a plan to revamp Tokyo’s closest alliance by locking Washington into an “Asian NATO” and stationing Japanese troops on U.S. soil. The new security alliance, Ishiba said, could even share control of Washington’s nuclear weapons as a deterrent against Japan’s nuclear-armed neighbours. “And this will lead to what? The correct answer is - the collapse of any stability in an already long-suffering region,” Zakharova said. “This will become a monstrous catalyst for escalation in the region with unknown consequences, or rather, the consequences are known, but we do not want to voice them,” Zakharova said, adding that such a move would demonstrate Tokyo’s subservience to Washington and its willingness to blindly implement American policies on Japanese soil. The proposal is not something Tokyo is moving ahead with immediately after India and the United States expressed different concerns about it. But Takeshi Iwaya, Japan’s foreign minister, has said “it’s one idea for the future.” Click here to read... [18]

Chinese leader makes rare visit to province facing Taiwan following major war exercises

China’s President Xi Jinping made a rare visit to a province facing Taiwan following military exercises that mobilized China’s navy, air force, missile force and land troops to simulate a blockade of the self-governing island democracy that Beijing claims as its own territory and threatens to annex by force. Xi did not comment on the military exercises during his visit to Fujian province, according to the official Xinhua News Agency, but his visit came on the heels of China’s dispatch of a record 125 aircraft, as well as its Liaoning aircraft carrier and ships, in large-scale military exercises surrounding Taiwan and its outlying islands Oct 14. Xi has largely avoided public appearances and foreign travel over the past year, but bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control remains a priority for his administration as head of the ruling Communist Party and its military, the People’s Liberation Army. Taiwan’s newly elected president Lai Ching-te has been vociferously criticized by Beijing for rejecting its position that Taiwan is a part of China. The drills came four days after Taiwan celebrated the founding of its government on its National Day, when Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said in a speech that China has no right to represent Taiwan and declared his commitment to “resist annexation or encroachment.” Click here to read... [19]

U.S. missile deployment to Philippines ‘incredibly important’ for combat readiness, U.S. general says

The U.S. Army’s recent deployment of a midrange missile system to the northern Philippines was “incredibly important” and allowed American and Filipino forces to jointly train for the potential usage of such heavy weaponry in Asian archipelago conditions, a U.S. general said Oct 21. The Biden administration has moved to strengthen an arc of military alliances in the Indo-Pacific to better counter China, including in any possible confrontation over Taiwan and other Asian flashpoints. The Philippines has also worked on shoring up its territorial defences after its disputes with China started to escalate last year in the increasingly volatile South China Sea. China has vehemently opposed the increased deployment of American combat forces to Asia. But it has been particularly alarmed by the U.S. Army’s deployment in April of the Typhon missile system, a land-based weapon that can fire the Standard Missile-6 and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, to the northern Philippines as part of joint combat exercises in April with Philippine troops. “What it does collectively, it provides us the opportunity to understand how to employ that capability — the environmental challenges here are very unique to any other place in the region,” U.S. Maj. Gen. Marcus Evans, Commanding General of the Hawaii-based 25th Infantry Division, said when asked how the missile system has helped participants in joint combat training in the Philippines. Click here to read... [20]

Indonesia's Prabowo announces largest cabinet lineup in decades

New Indonesian leader Prabowo Subianto announced his cabinet lineup on Oct 20 night, retaining key economic ministers under predecessor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo including respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. Prabowo, the former defense minister, named Indonesia's largest cabinet since the 1960s, hours after he was sworn in as president of the world's fourth most populous nation. He selected 48 people as new ministers and 58 others as vice ministers in what he called his "Red-White Cabinet" after the colours of the Indonesian flag. This compared with 34 ministers and around 30 vice ministers under Jokowi. Prabowo also named five new agency heads, including the presidential chief of staff and the attorney general. They are all scheduled to be sworn in Oct 21. The new cabinet members were summoned to Prabowo's residence last week, offering the public clues that they would serve in his administration. But most of their job roles were only confirmed as Prabowo announced the lineup on Oct 20. Analysts said earlier that the reappointment of several economic ministers indicated Prabowo's concerns for the economy. Prabowo repeated those concerns during his inauguration speech on Oct 20 morning. "Challenges, hurdles and threats that Indonesia is facing amid the global dynamics and turmoil are not light" matters, he said. Click here to read... [21]

Myanmar conflict lines blurred by U.S.-China rivalry

The conflict between Myanmar's military government and resistance forces is being shaped by the competing influences of China and the U.S., creating rifts in opposition to the regime. In September, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an armed resistance group active in northern Myanmar's Shan state, declared it would not work with the National Unity Government (NUG) formed in opposition to the 2021 military takeover in Myanmar. Nor would the MNDAA advance on Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city, to the west, the militant group said. This was welcome news to Myanmar's military regime. The MNDAA was one of three groups that called for an anti-government uprising that spread to other parts of the country in October 2023. The military had been worried that it would move on Mandalay. The NUG is a civilian government-in-exile that has operated in Myanmar since the military takeover. It seeks to carry on the work of detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and has support from Western democracies. More recently, the MNDAA issued a notice on Oct. 9 prohibiting its own fighters from traveling to the U.S. and Europe and from disseminating information related to Myanmar through foreign media. The MNDAA's move showed signs of Chinese pressure. Click here to read... [22]

Kim Jong Un declares end of 'evil relationship' with South Korea

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un has declared the end of the country's "evil relationship" with South Korea, official media on Oct 18 quoted him as saying, as Pyongyang escalates both rhetoric and action toward its longtime rival for control of their divided peninsula. Kim's comments came after Pyongyang on Oct 15 blew up roads and railways connecting his country to the South, the latest step in a seeming effort to cut off all access to the South. "He said that it means not only the physical closure but also the end of the evil relationship with Seoul," the Korean Central News Agency reported. KCNA's dispatch comes one day after it said that North Korea's constitution now refers to the South as an enemy, appearing to acknowledge that its legislature had changed the country's basic law to officially reflect the attitude. KCNA said on Oct 17 that the blowing up of the roads and railways is an action taken in accordance with the constitution, which it said, "clearly defines" the South as "a hostile state." The revision is likely to have come at a session of the Supreme People's Assembly -- the North's rubber stamp legislature -- that convened for two days last week. Kim, however, appeared to qualify slightly the characterization of South Korea, with KCNA on Oct 18 quoting him as calling it an "apparent hostile country." Click here to read... [23]

Yoon Holds Emergency Meeting on North Korea Troops Aiding Russia

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol convened an emergency security meeting on Oct 18 to discuss the deployment of North Korean combat troops to help Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. The meeting “shared information on the recent movement of North Korean troops into Russia and their support for the war,” according to a statement from Yoon’s office. It didn’t specify how many personnel were sent or what their roles were. The deployment poses a “serious security threat” to South Korea and the international community, according to the statement. The meeting took place about a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned that North Korea is preparing to send 10,000 troops to help Russia. Ukraine officials have for weeks said that North Korean soldiers were fighting in Ukraine, without providing evidence. South Korean intelligence authorities believe Pyongyang recently decided to send 12,000 troops to Ukraine, Yonhap News reported. The movement of troops has started, Yonhap reported, citing an unidentified official from South Korea’s spy agency. The deployment, if confirmed, would mark a major step in Pyongyang’s cooperation with Moscow after Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agreed in June to provide immediate military assistance if one of them is attacked. North Korea maintains around 1.28 million active troops, according to South Korea’s defense white paper. Click here to read... [24]

Japan’s LDP May Lose Majority for First Time Since 2009, Media Forecasts Show

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party may lose its outright majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time since 2009 in this month’s election while keeping control of the chamber with the help of its coalition partner, major Japanese media predicted Oct 17. The Mainichi newspaper forecast the LDP to win between 203 and 250 seats in the lower house, the more powerful of the two chambers of parliament, leaving open the possibility that the party will fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority for the first time since it lost power in a 2009 election. Based on phone surveys of voters on Oct. 15 and 16, with around 190,000 responses, the Mainichi also forecast that coalition partner Komeito would win 24 to 29 seats, down from its current share of 32 seats. The Yomiuri newspaper forecast the coalition would win a majority based on a similar survey. It reported that around 100 LDP candidates in the election were in a strong position to win their seats, and 120 were in close races. The Nikkei newspaper reported that the LDP may fall short of a majority by itself. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has set a target of securing a majority with the help of Komeito in an acknowledgment that the LDP is likely to lose seats in the Oct. 27 election. Click here to read... [25]

Israel confirms death of Hamas leader

Israel has officially announced that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, has been killed. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Oct 17 that they were “investigating” whether Sinwar was among the Palestinian militants killed in a skirmish at an unspecified location. “Eliminated: Yahya Sinwar,” the IDF posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Oct 17 evening. Foreign Minister Israel Katz has also sent out a note to several of his colleagues around the world confirming Sinwar’s death, according to an official statement. Sinwar, 62, has been the political leader of Hamas in Gaza since early 2017. He assumed full leadership of the group in August, after Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Alongside Mohammed Deif, chief of the Ezzedeen al-Qassam Brigades (the military wing of Hamas), Sinwar has been widely regarded as the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel that triggered the ongoing conflict. Israel claims to have killed Deif in an airstrike earlier this year, although the group has denied his death. Unverified and extremely graphic images circulating online on Oct 17 purportedly show Sinwar’s body partially buried in debris. The body showed signs of multiple blast traumas, as well as an apparent gunshot wound to the head. According to media reports, the body was taken by the military to a laboratory for DNA testing. Click here to read... [26]

U.S. Investigates Intelligence Leak About Israel’s Plans for Attacking Iran

The U.S. is investigating the leak of top-secret American documents that show Israel military preparations for an expected strike on Iran, U.S. officials said Oct 20. The two leaked reports were prepared last week by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which analyses imagery gathered by American reconnaissance satellites and other intelligence. Neither document indicates Israel’s potential targets, and one cautioned that the agency’s analysts “cannot definitely predict the scale and scope of a strike on Iran.” The reports describe the types of aircraft and munitions the Israeli military is expected to use in an attack, which the documents say could come without additional warning. Adding to U.S. concerns, the classified assessments were disseminated by a pro-Iran site, Middle East Spectator, which says it received them from an anonymous source. Among the concerns for U.S. investigators is “the potential for further leaks of highly classified documents,” said Jamil Jaffer, a former senior official in the Justice Department’s national-security division. The National Security Council referred questions to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which declined to comment. House Speaker Mike Johnson said in an interview with CNN that he has been informed that a U.S. government investigation is under way. The leak comes as Israeli officials say they are planning a retaliatory attack on Iran and the Biden administration is renewing its push to bring an end to the fighting in Gaza. Click here to read... [27]

Netanyahu Agrees to Limit Strike on Iran, Washington Post Reports

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to limit his country’s retaliation against Iran over the missile attack on Oct. 1 to military targets, according to a report in the Washington Post. Netanyahu has told the Biden administration that he would strike those types of targets rather than Iran’s oil infrastructure or nuclear installations, the Post reported, citing two officials familiar with the matter whom it didn’t identify. The newspaper cited one of the officials as saying the retaliation for the Iranian missile barrage on Israel would be calibrated to avoid the perception that Israel was interfering in next month’s US election. “We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests,” Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement when asked about the report. Such a decision would be a relief for President Joe Biden, whose administration has urged Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear or energy sites for fear of escalating the conflict in the Middle East. Oil dropped at the start of trading after the report was published. The White House on Oct 14 evening referred questions on Netanyahu’s intentions to Israeli officials. Click here to read... [28]

Iran Readies New Oil Outlet to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz

Iran is closer to finding a way to circumvent the crucial Strait of Hormuz when it comes to oil exports. The Jask oil terminal, officially opened a few years ago, has seen but limited activity so far. However, recent satellite imagery reveals it has partially filled the facility with crude oil in what is being construed as a significant development in Tehran's oil export strategy. The importance of Jask has increased as of late as tensions with Israel grow. During periods of unrest, Iran has routinely threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for oil shipments for several Middle Eastern producers. Unfortunately for Iran, it also relies on the Strait for its oil exports—but perhaps its leaning on the Strait is about to lighten up. Jask could enable Iran to reduce its reliance on this narrow waterway, freeing up options for the country. Jask has filled to about half capacity, imagery shows, but the facility's challenges remain. The terminal was designed to load up to 1 million barrels per day and store 20 million barrels. However, only one of the three planned loading buoys has been installed, limiting its operational capacity. Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, has in the past handled three times that volume, maintaining its status as the dominant outlet since the 1960s. Click here to read... [29]

Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region votes for new parliament

Voters in Iraq’s semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region have cast their ballots in delayed parliamentary elections amid disenchantment with political leaders and economic instability. The elections on Oct 20 were for 100 members of parliament, who will then pick a speaker, a president and a prime minister for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which was established in 1992. Of the region’s 6 million inhabitants, 2.9 million are eligible to vote for the MPs, including for 30 women mandated by a quota. More than 1,000 candidates are running, including 368 women. The KRG presents itself as a relative oasis of stability in the turbulent region, attracting foreign investors due to its close ties with the United States and Europe. However, activists and opposition figures contend that the region faces the same issues affecting Iraq as a whole, including corruption, political repression, cronyism among those in power, and difficulties in the economy. Reporting from the Iraqi capital Baghdad, Al Jazeera’s Mahmoud Abdelwahed said the turnout and outcome will reflect “if indeed there’s voter apathy”. He also said the regional government is seeking to pressure the central government in Baghdad to release a portion of its budget intended for the Kurds, and to allow the reopening of major oil pipelines. The parliamentary elections, which were supposed to be held in 2022, have been repeatedly delayed due to disagreements between the two dominant parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Click here to read... [30]

Zelensky explains ‘non-nuclear deterrence’ request

Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has called on Western backers to deploy their missiles in the country as part of a “deterrence package” designed to threaten Russian military targets. On Oct 17, Zelensky presented to the European Council his so-called “victory plan.” A day earlier in the Ukrainian parliament he unveiled the plan, calling it a “comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package,” without giving specifics. “We propose placing on Ukrainian soil a deterrence package that would either force Russia to participate in real peace negotiations or allow for the destruction of their military targets,” Zelensky told lawmakers in Brussels. “It’s the peace through threats approach… it’s about an appropriate missile package” Zelensky explained, adding that Kiev has provided details of the plan to all partners who can “make this happen,” including the US, France, Germany, Britain and Italy. He also reiterated his demands for more military support from the West and the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western long-range weapons and demanded that Kiev’s foreign backers “saturate Ukraine with air defense as soon as possible.” Zelensky’s “victory plan” consists of five points, including an immediate invitation to join NATO, permission to use Western long-range weapons against targets in Russia, and continued incursions into Russian territory. Click here to read... [31]

Health

‘Historic’: Egypt declared malaria free by the World Health Organization

Egypt has been certified as malaria free, with the World Health Organization (WHO) calling the achievement “truly historic” and the culmination of nearly a century of work to stamp out the disease. “Malaria is as old as Egyptian civilisation itself, but the disease that plagued pharaohs now belongs to its history and not its future,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement on Oct 20. “This certification of Egypt as malaria-free is truly historic, and a testament to the commitment of the people and government of Egypt to rid themselves of this ancient scourge.” Globally, 44 countries and one territory have now been certified as malaria free. Certification is granted by the WHO when a country has proven that the chain of indigenous malaria transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes has been interrupted nationwide for at least the previous three consecutive years. A country must also demonstrate the ability to prevent the re-establishment of transmission. Malaria kills more than 600,000 people every year, 95 percent of them in Africa, according to the WHO. There were 249 million recorded malaria cases worldwide in 2022, the last year for which data is available. Spread by mosquitoes, malaria is mostly found in tropical countries. The infection is caused by a parasite. Click here to read... [32]

COVID, mpox, cholera: Is the world prepared for another pandemic?

Some 4.5 billion people worldwide are currently without adequate access to essential healthcare services, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This comes as more than 100,000 cases of mpox and at least 200 deaths have been confirmed globally, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, with the WHO declaring it a public health emergency earlier this year. The ongoing cholera outbreak in Sudan alone has affected almost 15,000 people with at least 473 deaths reported, according to the country’s health ministry. A new COVID-19 variant has spread across 27 countries, infecting hundreds of people. At the 2024 World Economic Summit, it was also revealed that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has become the leading cause of death globally and could kill 10 million people by 2050. A report titled Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health, launched earlier this year, predicts that by 2050, an additional 14.5 million deaths could occur due to climate change as well as $12.5 trillion in economic losses globally. With healthcare systems across the world already under extra stress, they could face an additional $1.1 trillion burden due to the impact of climate change, the report added. Click here to read... [33]